LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS EGYPT PART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance...

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

EGYPTPART 3: EARTHQUAKES

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA

POLITICAL MAP OF EGYPT

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN EGYPTDISASTERS IN EGYPT

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN EGYPTDISASTERS IN EGYPT

FLOODS

STORMS

EARTHQUAKES

DUST STORMS

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which causes EARTH-QUAKES

ACKNOWLEDGMENT: Egyptian ministries, universities,

and officials contributed data and expertise in conjunction with

the RELEMR PROGRAMME administered since 1990 by

UNESCO and the USGS

Egypt has a very long historical record of

earthquakes going back four millennia

CAUSE OF SEISMICITY

• The interaction of the African, Arabian, Eurasian plates and the Sinai sub-plate is the main factor behind the seismicity of northern Egypt.

INTERACTING TECTONIC PLATES

ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL

EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL

SEISMICITYSEISMICITY TECTONICSETTING &

FAULTS

TECTONICSETTING &

FAULTS

EGYPT’S SEISMICITY: 1900 TO PRESENT

FOUR SEISMIC ZONES

• All earthquakes occur at shallow depth and are concentrated at four seismic zones: 1) the Gulf of Suez, 2) Gulf of Aqaba, 3) around the entrance of the Gulf of Suez, and 4) the Dahshur area (south- west of greater Cairo)..

EXPOSUREMODEL

EXPOSUREMODEL

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS(the potential disaster

agents)SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE,

GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION,

LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

GROUND

SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION FAILURE

SITE AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

AFTERSHOCKS

SEICHE

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS








DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

GROUND SHAKING

PROBABILISTIC GROUND SHAKING HAZARD

VULNERABILITYMODEL

VULNERABILITYMODEL

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

UNREINFO

RCED MASO

NRY, BRIC

K OR S

TONE

REINFORCED C

ONCRETE WIT

H UNREIN

FORCED WALLS

INTENSITYINTENSITY

REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS

STEEL FRAME

ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME

VV VIVI VIIVII VIIIVIII IXIX

3535

3030

2525

2020

1515

1010

55

00

MEA

N D

AM

AG

E R

ATIO

,

%

M

EA

N D

AM

AG

E R

ATIO

,

%

O

F R

EPLA

CE

MEN

T V

ALU

EO

F R

EPLA

CE

MEN

T V

ALU

E

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

EXAMPLES OF PAST DAMAGING EARTHQUAKES

THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKE

OCTOBER 12, 1992

The historical record shows that moderate-magnitude

earthquakes such as those that occurred in 1969, 1974, 1981, 1992, 1995, 1999, and 2002 were very damaging.

THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKE

• The M5.8 Cairo earthquake occurred at 15:09 local time on 12 October 1992 with an epicenter near Dahshur, 35 km (22 mi) south of Cairo.

DAMAGE

• The areas of greatest damage were in “Old Cairo” and southwards along the Nile as far as Gerza, on the west bank.

• 350 buildings were completely destroyed and 9,000 other severely damaged, including 216 mosques and 350 schools.

DAMAGE

• Most of the severe damage was confined to older masonry structures, especially those built of adobe.

• Liquefaction occurred in areas near the epicenter

IMPACTS OF THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKE

• The most damaging seismic event to affect Cairo since 1847, the earthquake was unusually destructive for its size, causing 545 deaths, injuring 6,512 and making 50,000 people homeless.

• Unfortunately, some of the deaths and injuries were due to panic.

THE REASON: Egypt’s buildings usually do not

have adequate resistance to horizontal ground shaking, a

recipe for disaster

THE REASON: Egypt’s buildings usually do not

have adequate resistance to horizontal ground shaking, a

recipe for disaster

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH EGYPT’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH EGYPT’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.


• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.


• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.


• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.


• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

MODERATE EARTHQUAKES IN EGYPT ARE INEVITABLE AND DAMAGING

MODERATE EARTHQUAKES IN EGYPT ARE INEVITABLE AND DAMAGING

• ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT.

THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

EGYPT’S EGYPT’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

EGYPT’S EGYPT’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

EARTHQUAKE RISK EARTHQUAKE RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES

PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE


ALL EARTHQUAKES

PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE


ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE


ALL EARTHQUAKES

TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A

COMMON GOAL)

FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

RESILIENT

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A

COMMON GOAL)

FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

RESILIENT

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIESEMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ DISASTER RESILIENCE


• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)

• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)

• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• DATABASES • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

• DATABASES • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS



• AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT

• PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION

• ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)

• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN

• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS

• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)

• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN

• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS

• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)

• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS



• PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS

• MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM)

• PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS

• MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM)

• DATABASES• SEISMIC ENGINEERING • MAPS: GROUND

SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP

• DISASTER SCENARIOS• WARNING SYSTEMS• RISK MODELING (E.G.,

HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• DATABASES• SEISMIC ENGINEERING • MAPS: GROUND

SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP

• DISASTER SCENARIOS• WARNING SYSTEMS• RISK MODELING (E.G.,

HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS EGYPT PART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance...

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