Northwest Deyr 2010/11 January 26, 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and...

Northwest

Deyr 2010/11

January 26, 2011

Information for Better Livelihoods

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

Somalia

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

Normal access to all livelihoods of the

Northwest regions for Deyr 2010/11 Assessment

Post Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment

Coverage Field Access and Field

Data Locations

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

• 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Togdheer and Northwest Agropastoral) Togdheer AgroPastoral are more pastoral, however there is an increasing

dependency on crop and fodder production. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment and fodder sales. Main source of food: Own crop and food purchase

Northwest Agropastoral are more agriculturists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; Main sources of food: own crop production and purchase.

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income

• 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugaal Valley, and Golis/Guban Pastoralists) Primary sources of income of poor: sale of

livestock & livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase

and own production Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel,

sheep/goat

• Start of Season: Started early - in 2nd dekad of Sep ’10 - in most parts of the Northwest zone

• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Duration and distribution of the rainfall was poor in Nugaal valley, Sool Plateau and Hawd (Togdheer and Sool). A long dry spell in Nov-Dec ‘10 in the regions of Sool, Sanaag and Togdheer

• Normal to above normal rains: Hawd of Hargeisa, West-Golis/Guban, and Agropastoral (100-125 mm of cumulative rainfall)

• Below normal rains: Sool Plateau, Nugal valley and Hawd of Togdheer (10-25mm of cumulative Oct-Dec ’10)

ClimatePerformance of the Deyr 2010/11

Rainfall

July NDVI difference from long term average

ClimatePerformance of the Deyr 2010/11

Season

Civil Security Situation:

Overall the security situation in the Northwest remains stable.

Resource conflict in grazing land in Kalshaale area of Buhoodle district, resulted in human death(9) and injuries(2). However, efforts from both elders and house of parliament, promoted peace in the area. The recent declaration of the President had further strengthened the peace resolution in the area.

The conflict over the disputed agricultural land of El-bardaale in Gebiley district was agreed to be resolved through dialogue from clans with the government assistance.

Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:

Limited movement of transport to Buhodle area.Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

Civil Insecurity

Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow

Agriculture

AgricultureNorthwest Cereal Production

Agriculture Trends in Gu/Karan 2010 Crop Harvest Estimates

Regional Distribution of Gu/Karan 2010 Crop Estimates (Harvested)

Long Term Trends in Gu-Karan Crop Production (1998-2010)

Regional Trend in

Cereal Prices

(Sorghum)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor

(kg of sorghum/daily wage)

AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Burao

Regional Trend in

Cereal Prices

(White Sorghum)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor (Kg of White Sorghum/

Daily Wage)

AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Northwest

Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration

Livestock

• Good performance of Deyr ’10/11 season in Awdal, W. Galbeed and Golis LZ of Togdheer resulted in normal pasture and water.

• Below normal Deyr rains in most of Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions with negative impact on both pasture/ browse and water conditions.

• Average to poor livestock body conditions, however below average milk production due to low camel calving and limited pasture and water availability.

• Abnormal livestock migration in Eastern Part of NW regions.

Livestock Livestock Body Conditions & Trends in Production

RegionConception (Deyr ’10/11)

Calving/kidding (Deyr ’10/11)

Milk production (Deyr ’10/11)

Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ‘11

Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11)

Livelihoods Livestock species

NW HawdCamel: Low to NoneSheep/goats: Low to Medium

Nugaal valley:Camel: Low to NoneSheep/goats: Low to Medium

Sool plateauCamel: None Sheep/goats: Low to Medium

Golis/Guban:Camel: Medium Sheep/goats: Medium to High

HawdCamel: Medium in Sool region but Low to none in togdheer and W. Galbeed Sheep/goats: Low to Medium

Nugaal ValleyCamel: Medium in Sool and Low to none in Togdheer and SanaagSheep/goat: High to Medium

Sool PlateauCamel: None Sheep/goats: High to Medium

Golis/GubanCamel: Low to None Sheep/goats: Medium to High

All Species:

Below Average

Below Average

Below Average

Below Average

Hawd: Camel: MediumSh/goats: Low to Medium

Nugaal valley: Camel: MediumSh/goats: Low to Medium

Sool plateau: Camel: Low Sheep/Goats: Low to Medium

Golis/Guban: Camel: MediumSh/Goat:Medium to High

Hawd Camel : Above Baseline. Increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ‘10 and is expected to increase by 15% till Jun. ‘11 Sheep/goats: Above Baseline. Increased by 14% between Jun – Dec ‘10, but expected to be same till Jun. ‘11

Nugaal Valley

Sheep/Goats: Same as Baseline. Increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to Decline by 43% till Jun ‘11

Sool Plateau Sheep/Goat: Same as Baseline. Slightly increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ‘10 but expected to decrease by 22% till Jun. ‘11

Golis guban Camel: Above Baseline. Increased by 35% between Jan – Jun ‘10 and further increase of 19% is expected till Dec. ‘10

Sheep/goats: Near Baseline. Sustained unchanged between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to increase by 11% of Baseline till Jun. ‘11

Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade - Burao

Livestock

Regional Trends in Goat Local Quality Price and Terms of

Trade: Cereal to Goat Local Quality

LivestockRegional Trends in Livestock Prices & Terms of Trade - Erigavo

Regional Trends in Goat Local Quality Price and Terms of

Trade: Cereal to Goat Local Quality

LivestockTrends in Livestock Exports – Berbera Port

Deyr 2010/11 Assessment PhotosLivestock

Good body condition Hawd, Hargeisa, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Early water trucking Hawd L/Anod, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Poor Pasture Condition. Nugal Valley, Taleh, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Early water trucking in Sool plateau, Badhan, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices

Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices:

•Appreciation of SlSh

•Increased price of rice and sugar at international markets

Markets

NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings

Region Nutrition Surveys (Oct-Dec’10)

Rapid MUAC Screening (%

<12.5cm)

Health Information System Info(Source: HIS data R=3)

TFC/OTP/SFC

Other relevant information – Key driving factors

Summary of analysis and change from Gu

10

Pastoral –

Agro-Pastoral

West Golis/Guban

GAM:10.4% (7.6-13.9)

SAM: 1.6% (0.9-2.9)

Hawd

GAM: 10.1% (8.0-12.7)

SAM: 1.8% (1.0-3.5)

East Golis of Sanaag and Gebbi Valley

GAM:11.1% (8.0-15.1)

SAM: 2.1% (1.2-3.9)

Sool Plateau

GAM:8.3% (6.0-11.4)

SAM: 1.6% (0.8-3.1)

Nugal Valley

GAM:10.3% (7.0- 14.8)

SAM: 1.0% (0.4 – 2.3)

Agro-pastoral of Galbeed/Awdal and Togdheer

GAM:10.4% (7.6- 14.1)

SAM: 0.8% (0.3 – 1.91)

4.1 (2.4-7.2)

3.1 (1.9-4.8)

5.8 (3.8-8.6)

2.9 (1.7-5.0)

4.2 (2.5-6.0)

1.5 (0.6-2.5)

HIS TRENDS: Low <5% and stable number of acutely malnourished children

HIS nutrition trend: Low and stable no. of acutely malnourished children

HIS nutrition trend: High and fluctuating no. of acutely malnourished children

HIS nutrition trend: 10-15% and stable no. of acutely malnourished children

HIS nutrition trend: high and fluctuating trend. of acutely malnourished children

HIS nutrition trend: Low and stable numbers of malnourished children

Targeted feeding in MCH by WFP

N/A

High and stable trends

N/A

Targeted feeding in MCH by WFP

N/A

N/A

MORBIDITY: 26.1%

No disease outbreaks.

MORBIDITY: 21.1%


MORBIDITY: 43.1

No disease outbreaks, poor milk availability

MORBIDITY: 48.9

No disease outbreaks,

MORBIDITY: 40.4

No disease outbreaks,

MORBIDITY: 28.7


Overall Aggravating Factors: •Limited milk availability in the pastoral LHZs •High morbidity (increased incidences of diarrhea following the water shortages in the area•Inappropriate child feeding and care practices •Poor access to sanitation facilities and safe water in rural LHZs Overall Mitigating Factors: •Increased humanitarian programmes in the region (health, feeding, WASH)•Child Health Days conducted in the area in the months of December/ January 2011

West Golis/Guban Serious- Stable , no change

HawdSerious- Stable , no change

East Golis of Sanaag/GebbiDeterioration from Alert to Serious

Sool PlateauAlert – Stable no change

Nugal ValleyDeterioration from Alert to Serious

Agro- PastoralDeterioration from Alert to Serious

Somalia Estimated Nutrition Situation July 2010

Somalia Estimated Nutrition

Situation January 2011

Nutrition Nutrition Situation Maps

IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation

Key IPC Reference Outcomes: •Pastoral of Sool-Sanag Plateau HE: 50% P HE and 50% P AFLC•East Golis/Gebi of Sanag region: Lasqoray district – AFLC Moderate Risk: 75% P; Other districts - BFI High Risk to AFLC (25%P in AFLC); Hawd and Nugal valley of Togdheer, Sanag and Sool - BFI High Risk to AFLC (25% of poor in AFLC); Livelihoods of W. Galbeed and Awdal are BFI with Watch

• Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2100 kcal ppp day• Water Access: Poor water availability , trucked water of high price than the normal., in Sool Plateau, Hawd and Nugal valley• Destitution/Displacement: pastoral destitution from rural diffused• Coping: distress strategies increasing• Livelihood Assets: increased, but below baseline

Main Contributing Factors: Decreasing asset holding due to high off-take during Jilaal season Lack of milk production (camel) Reduced household income from own production (livestock/ milk sales) High indebtedness (loans) Increased expenditure on water for both livestock and human.

MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONESMAP 1: IPC, Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC, Deyr 2010/11

IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts

NW Regions Affected Districts

UNDP 2005 Rural Population

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 10 Deyr 2010/11

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)



Awdal Baki 16,923 0 0 0 0 Borama 132,695 0 0 0 0 Lughaye 22,094 0 0 0 0 Zeylac 22,801 0 0 0 0

Sub-total 194,513 0 0 0 0 Woqooyi Galbeed Berbera 18,683 0 0 0 0 Gebiley 53,717 0 0 0 0 Hargeysa 137,513 0 0 0 0

Sub-total 209,913 0 0 0 0 Togdheer Burco 191,748 0 0 12,000 0 Buuhoodle 28,821 0 0 2,000 0 Owdweyne 30,924 0 0 2,000 0 Sheikh 27,400 0 0 0 0

Sub-total 278,893 0 0 16,000 0 Sanaag Ceel Afweyn 53,638 1,000 1,000 5,000 1,000 Ceerigaabo 83,748 3,000 3,000 6,000 4,000 Laasqoray/Badhan 76,902 12,000 11,000 14,000 11,000

Sub-total 214,288 16,000 15,000 25,000 16,000 Sool Caynabo 24,026 0 0 2,000 0 Laas Caanood 50,606 0 0 4,000 0 Taleex 20,983 1,000 1,000 2,000 1,000 Xudun 15,528 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

Sub-total 111,143 2,000 2,000 9,000 2,000 Grand Total 1,008,750 18,000 17,000 50,000 18,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 35,000 68,000

IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones

NW Region Affected Livelihood Zones

Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HEGU 10 Deyr 2010/11





AwdalNW Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle 76,159 0 0 0 0Fishing 1,149 0 0 0 0Golis Pastoral 74,592 0 0 0 0Guban Pastoral 42,612 0 0 0 0

Sub-total 194,513 0 0 0 0Woqooyi GalbeedFishing 1,437 0 0 0 0Golis Pastoral 67,455 0 0 0 0Hawd Pastoral 70,830 0 0 0 0NWAgro-past: Sorghum, cattle 70,191 0 0 0 0

Sub-total 209,913 0 0 0 0Togdheer

Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel 23,698 0 0 0 0

Hawd Pastoral 223,347 0 0 14,000 0Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 11,984 0 0 2,000 0

Togdheer Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle 19,864 0 0 0 0

Sub-total 278,893 0 0 16,000 0SanaagFishing 15,193 0 0 0 0

Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel 56,596 4,000 0 8,000 0

Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats 30,415 3,000 0 4,000 0Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 37,396 0 0 3,000 0

Potato Zone & Vegetables 7,052 0 0 0 0Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 61,347 9,000 9,000 10,000 10,000Destitute pastoralists 6,289 0 6,000 0 6,000

Sub-total 214,288 16,000 15,000 25,000 16,000SoolHawd Pastoral 30,108 0 0 2,000 0Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel 72,608 0 0 5,000 0

Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 7,697 2,000 1,000 2,000 1,000Destitute pastoralists 730 0 1,000 0 1,000

Sub-total 111,143 2,000 2,000 9,000 2,000GRAND TOTAL 1,008,750 18,000 17,000 50,000 18,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 35,000 68,000

District UNDP 2005 Urban Population


Deyr ‘10/11


Deyr ‘10/11

Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population

Deyr ‘10/11

Awdal Baki 8,577 0 0 0Borama 82,921 0 0 0Lughaye 14,010 0 0 0Zeylac 5,434 0 0 0

Sub-Total 110,942 0 0 0Woqooyi Galbeed Berbera 42,070 0 0 0Gebiley 25,847 0 0 0Hargeysa 422,515 0 0 0

Sub-Total 490,432 0 0 0Togdheer Burco 96,463 0 0 0Buuhoodle 9,607 0 0 0Owdweyne 11,107 0 0 0Sheikh 6,225 0 0 0

Sub-Total 123,402 0 0 0Sanaag Badhan 7,322 2,000 2,000 55Ceel Afweyn 12,159 4,000 3,000 58Ceerigaabo 31,098 10,000 7,000 55Laasqoray 5,500 2,000 1,000 55

Sub-Total 56,079 18,000 13,000 55Sool Caynabo 6,676 3,000 0 45Laas Caanood 24,830 12,000 0 48Taleex 4,371 2,000 0 46Xudun 3,257 2,000 0 61

Sub-Total 39,134 19,000 0 49

IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

The End

Northwest Deyr 2010/11 January 26, 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and...

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