Hiran Region

Deyr 2010/11

January 26, 2011

Information for Better Livelihoods

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

Somalia

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

FSNAU Food security field analyst of Hiran was able to collect data directly from the field in Mataban areas.

The information from other areas that could not be accessed directly due to insecurity was collected through teleconferencing with enumerators, key informants/focus groups

Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage

Field Access and Field Data Locations

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

2. Agropastoral and Riverine Livelihoods Hiran Agropastoral: Main sources of income: sale of livestock &

livestock products, crop sales, sale of bush products (charcoal, fire wood, building sticks, fodder); main sources of food: own production, purchase and food gifts

Hiran riverine: Main sources of income: labour activities, sale of crops, crop fodder and bush products; main source of food: own production and purchases

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Iincome1. Two Pastoral Livelihood (SIP and Hawd)

Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products

Primary sources of food of poor: own production, purchase and food gifts

Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle and sheep/goats

Overall Statement: Deyr rains have failed in all livelihoods of Hiran region. Satellite imagery indicated cumulative rainfall (October-December 2010) of 0-20% of the normal.

Start of Season: No effective rainfall

commenced

Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very light showers with no impact on livelihoods were received in localized pockets of Beletweyne riverine livelihood.

ClimatePerformance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall

ClimateVegetation Conditions (NDVI)

Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

Civil Insecurity

Civil Security Situation:

• Recurrent armed clashes between opposing parties over the control of the region further deteriorated security situation. Beletweyne and its surroundings are the epicentre of the current conflict.

• Regrouping and militia build-up in the region likely to cause another large confrontation

Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:

• Human death and injuries • Trade disruptions• Increased IDPs due to civil insecurity• Restricted humanitarian interventions• Outmigration of business and traders,

negatively impacting food availability and job opportunity of poor households

Regional Cereal Production by District

Agriculture

Districts

Deyr 2010/11 Production in MT

Total Cereals

(MT)

Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr

‘09/10

Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr

PWA(1995-2009)

Deyr 2010/11 as % of 5 year

average(2005-2009)Maize Sorghum

Belet Weyne

128 60 188 19% 8% 13%

Bulo Burto

105 50 155 26% 7% 12%

Jalalaqsi

90 40 130 39% 9% 20%

Hiraan Deyr 2011 Total323 150 473 24% 8% 14%

AgricultureTrends in Regional Cereal Production

Deyr Cereal Production

Trends (1995 – 2010)

Annual Cereal Production

Trends (1995 – 2010)

AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos

1. The farmers are considerably benefitting from crop fodder price increase which is 200% (10,000 to 30,000 SoSh/bundle)higher same month last year (Dec’09), FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

2. Average sorghum crop – irrigated. Beletweyne, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

1

2

1

3

Deyr 2010 local cereal flow: Cereals come from Bay (sorghum), Shabelle including Banadir (maize) and Qalafe (Ethiopian side), though the supply reduced following the crop failure in the regions.

AgricultureRegional Cereal Flow

AgricultureRegional Trend in Sorghum Prices and Daily

Labour Wage Rates

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Red Sorghum)

Regional Trends in Daily Labour Rate (Beletweyn market)

Factors Influencing:

Sorghum prices:

•Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods •Reduction of sorghum inflow from Bay region as a result of sorghum harvest failure. •Civil insecurity restricting the trade flow

Labour rates:

• High supply of casual labour due to labour migration from agro-pastoral areas into main towns and riverine after the crop harvest failure in agropastoral livelihoods

AgricultureRegional Trend in TOT between Labour to Cereal

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Between Daily Labour Rate & Red Sorghum

Factors Influencing ToT:

• High sorghum prices.

• Decrease of labour wage rates due to low demand and high supply of labour.

LivestockRangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration

in Deyr 2010/11

• Water availability is average in agro pastoral and riverine livelihood zones and very poor in Hawd and Southern Inland Pastoral due to complete failure of Deyr 2010/11 seasonal rainfall performances.

• Very poor pasture condition in all livelihoods.

• Very poor livestock body condition and high livestock death in all LZs

• Abnormal migration to Galgadud, Somali Region of Ethiopia for safe place, good pasture and food aid.

• Normal migration to riverine areas sharing the limited resources which may create natural resource conflict.

Livestock Trends in Milk Production and Livestock Holdings

RegionConception (Deyr ’10/11)

Calving/ kidding (Deyr ’10/11)

Milk production (Deyr ’10/11)

Expected calving/ kidding (Jan – June ’11)

Trends in Herd Size ( June‘2011)

Livelihoods Livestock species

Hiran All Lzs:

Camel: Low

Cattle: Low

Sheep/Goats: Low

All Lzs:

Camel: LowCattle: Low Sheep/Goats: Low

All Lzs:

Very low for all species

All Lzs:

Camel: LowCattle: LowSh/goats: Low

Pastoral- Hawd

Camel: decreased (45% of the Baseline by June ‘11) Sheep/Goat: decreased (61% of the Baseline by June ‘11)

SI Pastoral and Agro-pastoral

Camel: decreased (44% of the Baseline by June ‘11)Cattle : decreased (33% of the Baseline by June ’11)Sheep/Goat: decreased (63% of the Baseline by June ’11)

Livestock

Trends in local goat prices

Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices & Terms of Trade

Factors Influencing:

L. Goat prices:

• Poor livestock body condition• Low demand of livestock after the end of Hajj period. • Civil insecurity

ToT goat to sorghum:

• High sorghum prices• Poor livestock body condition• Less saleable animals in the region• Decreased livestock prices• Low demand on livestock demand after the end of Hajj season

Regional Trends in ToT: local goat to cereal (red sorghum)

Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos

Poor camel body condition. Teedaan,Beletwein, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec ‘10

Poor goat body conditions. Buloburte, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec ’10

Poor cattle body conditions in Agropastoral. Buloburte, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

Poor pasture conditions as a result of complete failure of Deyr 2010/11 rains in all livelihoods leading to poor livestock body condition and livestock deaths. The situation is likely to deteriorate further in the coming harsh Jilaal season, thus the anticipated outcome will be worse than it is now.

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices

Markets

Factors Influencing Commercial Import Price increase (last six months)

•High local cereal prices

• The fluctuation of exchange rate (SoSh/USD)

•Civil insecurity – high tension restricting trade movements

• Increased illegal taxes

• Increased reliance on imported cereals following the 6 -7 consecutive seasons of crop failures

Region Nutrition Surveys (Oct – Dec’ 10)

Rapid MUAC Screening (%

<12.5cm)

Health Information System Info

TFC/OTP/SFC

Other relevant information – Key

driving factors

Summary of analysis and change from

Gu 10

Hiran N/A – due to insecruity

Hiran Riverine (N=1100) 10 sitesGAM MUAC of 17.7%, SAM MUAC of 3.5% (FSNAU & partners, Dec’ 10)

Hiran Agro-pastoral (N=1100) 10 sitesGAM MUAC of 17.1%, SAM MUAC of 2.9% (FSNAU & partners, Dec’ 10)

Hiran Pastoral (N=1100) 10 sitesGAM MUAC of 14.7%, SAM MUAC of 2.5% (FSNAU & partners, Dec’ 10)

High (>10%) but declining trends in the last 3-4 months

High (>10%) and stable trends in the last 6 months

Low (<10%) and stable trend due to closure of HF’s in June ‘10

N/A

N/A

N/A

Overall Aggravating Factors:•Civil insecurity - limited humanitarian space; displacement associated with civil insecurity•Disease outbreaks- AWD, cholera, malaria and whooping cough- in B/Burti and 3 other districts•Taxation•Limited access to health centers•Limited medical supplies in the area•Increasing number of new IDPs

Overall Mitigating Factors:•Income from sale of fodder and some labor opportunities among the riverine•Improved livestock condition for pastoralists and milk availability after Gu•Social support

Hiran Riverine – Likely Very Critical –no improvement from Gu ‘10

Hiran Agro-pastoral – Likely Very Critical – no improvement from Gu ‘10

Hiran Pastoral Likely Critical – improvement from Very Critical in Gu ‘10, but high risk to deteriorate

NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings

Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2010

NutritionNutrition Situation Estimates

IPCSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation

Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Agro-Pastoral 100% Poor & 50% Middle in HE, 50% Middle in AFLC, deterioration trend; Southern Inland Pastoral 75% Poor in HE, 25% poor in AFLC and 50% M in AFLC; Hawd 50% Poor in HE, 50% P in AFLC; Riverine 100% Poor & 75% Middle in HE and 25% M in AFLC.

• Acute malnutrition: Very Critical in all Livelihoods• Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day• Water Access: adequate in riverine (unsafe), poor to very poor in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods• Destitution/Displacement: Concentrated and increasing• Coping: Distress strategies and increasing in agro-pastoral and Pastoral LZ, but slight improving in riverine

LZ, • Livelihood Assets: accelerated and critical depletion or loss of assets

Main Contributing Factors: 6 - 7 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading to:

Consecutive seasons of crop failures Poor pasture/browse conditions leading to deterioration of body condition for all livestock species

High food and non-food prices, high fodder prices Significant reduction of household income; coping through collection of bush products, labour migration to

riverine (agropastoralists) and urban centers, limited remittances, social support

MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONESMAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11

IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE

Hiraan Region Affected District UNDP 2005 Rural Population

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE

Belet Wayne/Matabaan 135,580 26,000 69,000 30,000 69,000

Bulo Burto/Maxaas 88,673 16,000 45,000 23,000 45,000

Jalalaqsi 36,445 6,000 15,000 10,000 15,000

SUB-TOTAL 260,698 48,000 129,000 63,000 129,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 177,000 192,000

Hiraan Region and Affected Livelihood Zone

Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HECiid (Hawd) Pastoral 25,760 3,000 3,000 4,000 3,000 Hiran Agro-Past 136,727 38,000 85,000 38,000 85,000 Hiran riverine 32,633 0 29,000 4,000 25,000 Southern Inland Past 61,511 7,000 8,000 17,000 12,000Destitute Pastoralists 4,067 0 4,000 0 4,000

SUB-TOTAL 260,698 48,000 129,000 63,000 129,000TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 177,000 192,000

IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

District UNDP 2005 Urban Population

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)Deyr 2010/11

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Deyr 2010/11

Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban

populationDeyr 2010/11

Hiraan Belet Weyne/Matabaan 36,469 5,000 15,000 55Bulo Burto/Maxaas 22,365 0 9,000 40Jalalaqsi 10,279 0 4,000 39Sub-Total 69,113 5,000 28,000 48

The End