North SlopeRapid Ecoregional Assessment

A Bureau of Land Management Project

North Slope Borough Planning CommissionBarrow

October 30, 2014

Contents of this presentation

• A quick review of the project• Various players in the project• Your role

• Progress so far – examples of products

• Our future plan

ScienceIntegration

Project-level Monitoringfor Adaptive

Management

Ecoregional Direction

Field Implementation

Rapid & Other Ecoregional Assessments

Landscape-scale & other Inventories

AIM-Monitoring at multiple scales

Local-scale assessment,

inventory, and monitoring

BLM’s Landscape Approach

What is an REA?

REAs :

• Identify things of value in the environment and how they are changing over time, and what may be causing that change

• Focus on large areas and look at the really big picture instead of a particular lake or river

What does an REA provide?

REAs do not make decisions or allocate resources

They provide information and tools for land managers

• Current status of things of value in the environment• Future status (25, 50 years out)• Identify data gaps and science needs• Suggestions for land managers on how they might use

this information

North Slope Ecoregion Assessment Area

Roles and responsibilities

Project Team A team of scientists and researchers from UA

• Alaska Natural Heritage Program (AKNHP), • Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), and • Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP)

Facilitator from Margaret J. King and Associates.

Assessment Management Team (AMT)A team of land managers and experts in land management from various federal and state agencies that guide the project

Technical Team (Tech Team)Experts in various relevant science fields that evaluate and advise on the technical aspects

Assessment Components

Management Questions (MQs)

Conservation Elements (CEs)

Change Agents (CAs)

These are the things of value in the environment . They can be:

Conservation elements (CEs)

On land In water

Environment and associated conditions

Land cover (Ex: coastal plain)

Aquatic cover (Ex: shallow connected lakes)

Individual species Ex: Caribou Ex: Arctic grayling

Change agents

They change the status of the conservation elements Five primary agents of change:

• Human uses• Climate change• Fire• Permafrost• Invasive species

How it all works

Conservation ElementChange Agent

REAs collect and compile data, and estimate these impacts

Land managers, at all levels, can use this information in their decisions

Management Question

Phase IInitiation

Phase II

Preliminary management questions

Establish Assessment Management Team and technical team

Assessment Work Plan

Statements of work

Establish Contracts and Agreements

Conceptual Ecoregional Model Management questions (MQs) Conservation elements (CEs) Change agents (CAs)

Recommend Potential DatasetsTask 2 – 2 Months

Recommend Methods, Models, and Tools

Task 3 – 3 Months

Rapid Ecoregional Assessment Work Plan (REAWP)

Task 4 – 2 Months

Task 1 – 3 Months

Compile and Generate “Source” Datasets

Task 5 – 3 Months

Conduct Analyses Generate Findings

Task 6 – 5 Months

Prepare REA Documents

Task 7 – 18 Mo. Total

Completed

Process Overview

Discovering and compiling data

Multi-step process of identifying, evaluating, and compiling useful data to answer the MQs.

Compiled data from 20-30 different sources: • Research organizations and individual

researchers• Government agencies at all levels

Data Provider Data Type Species

NatureServe Range maps - spatial All terrestrial species

AK Gap Analysis Project Distribution Models and occurrence records - spatial

All terrestrial species

USFWS, Migratory Bird Management

Avian Survey Data - spatial Willow Ptarmigan, Greater White-fronted Goose, raptors

National Park Service Range maps and occurrence records - spatial

Caribou, Lapland Longspur

University of Alaska Museum Occurrence records - spatial All terrestrial species

Toolik Lake Field Station Occurrence records - spatial Passerines

ABR Inc. Occurrence records - spatial Artic fox, caribou

North Slope Borough Wildlife Department

Occurrence records and reports – spatial

Arctic fox, caribou

BLM Range maps and occurrence records - spatial

Raptors, caribou

Alaska Department of Fish and Game

Distribution models - spatial Caribou

Data Sources for Terrestrial Fine-Filter CEs

Raptor concentration in riparian areas

Source: ADF&G, NSB, BLM, CPAI, and ABR in NPRA EIS 2013

Seasonal use of habitat – Teshekpuk caribou herd

Data Source: Platte, B. 2014. unpubl. data. Migratory Bird Management, USFWS.

Density map for Greater white-fronted Goose

Distribution model for Lapland Longspur

Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning Modeled historical datasets:• Historical Decadal Averages of Annual Total Precipitation 771 m CRU TS 3.0 1910-1999• Historical Decadal Averages of Seasonal Total Precipitation 771 m CRU TS 3.0 1910-1999• Historical Decadal Averages of Monthly Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1• Historical Decadal Averages of Annual Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1• Historical Decadal Averages of Seasonal Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1

Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning Modeled projected datasets:• Alaska Projected Decadal Averages of Monthly Snow-day Fraction 771 m CMIP3/AR4• Projected Decadal Averages of Annual Total Precipitation 771m AR4 2001-2100• Projected Decadal Averages of Seasonal Total Precipitation 771m AR4 2001-2100• Projected Decadal Averages of Monthly Mean Temperatures 771 AR4• Projected Decadal Averages of Annual Mean Temperatures 771m AR4• Projected Decadal Averages of Seasonal Mean Temperatures 771m AR4• Projected Day of Freeze 771 m AR4• Projected Day of Thaw 771 m AR4• Projected Length of Growing Season 771 m AR4

Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab/SNAP Projected permafrost variables (2006-2100) AR5, 5 top models, 5 model average• Mean Annual Ground Temperature (MAGT)• Active Layer Thickness (ALT)

Projected (2006-2100) ALFRESCO outputs• Fire return interval • Vegetation shifts

Projected Alaska Climate-Biome Shift 2 KM (2001-2099)• Cliome shifts

Variability assessments• A2 2km 5 Model Decadal Standard Deviation Temperature• A2 2km 5 Model Decadal Standard Deviation Precipitation

Other data• Water temperature and snow depth data (IMIQ)

Data sources for Climate as a change agent

Most species of plants and animals are highly sensitive to the length of the growing season.

Warm season length is the number of days between the estimated day when the average temperature crosses the freezing point in the spring, and the day when it crossed that point in the fall.

Climate as a change agent - Warm season length

Anaktuvu

k Pass

Kaktovik

Kivalin

a

Point Hope

Point Lay

Barrow

Nuiqsut

Atkasu

k

Prudhoe Bay

Wain

wright

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2010s2020s2060s

Values are averaged across watersheds (5th level HUCs) surrounding communities. Error bars represent maximum and minimum values (for 771m pixels) within those watersheds. Note that variability across watersheds is much greater in mountainous areas.

Warm season length by community

Erosion

Population

Employment

Energy

Income

Language

Vital Statistics

Education

State

Federal

Local/Regional

Location

US Army Corps of Engineers

UA Census Bureau

Alaska Department of Labor

Alaska Bureau of Vital Statistics

Alaska Department of Education

North Slope Borough Planning Department

Alaska Housing Finance Commission

Institute of Social and Economic Research

Linear features

Block features

Bureau of Economic Analysis

National Center for Education Statistics

Data sources for human activities

Federal (NPS, USFWS, BLM): 180,000 sq. km. State (selected, patent): 53,000 sq. km.Native (selected and patent): 25,000 sq. km.

Human footprint: Communities, Camps and Cabins in the North Slope

What are the measurable and perceived impacts of development on subsistence harvest of caribou? (Fish)?

Source Dataset

Intermediate Results

Final Result

Operator

Acronyms:NOS: North Slope

Content

Analysis

Extract

Extract

Targeted

search

Review and assessment

Clip

Oil and gas infrastructures shape files and tabular data

Map identifying location of oil and gas infrastructures

Summary report identifying perceived

impacts of development on subsistence harvest

of caribou

Literature(Reports, Peer-reviewed

articles, ADF&G, NSB, MMS/BOEM)

Themes (Areas of concerns used as

key terms)

Perceived impacts of development on

subsistence harvest of caribou

Subsistence Advisory Panel (Meeting minutes, Issues and recommendations)

Literature

Work definitions of subsistence and

development

Measurable dimensions of ‘development’ that impact ‘subsistence’ harvests of

caribou

Model identifying the measurable dimensions of development that impact

subsistence harvests of caribou

Data Discovery for variables(ADF&G, AKDOL, BEA,

AEDG)

Relationships between variables and total harvest

Management Questions: TF3; AF2

Phase IInitiation

Phase II

Preliminary management questions

Establish Assessment Management Team and technical team

Assessment Work Plan

Statements of work

Establish Contracts and Agreements

Conceptual Ecoregional Model Management questions (MQs) Conservation elements (CEs) Change agents (CAs)

Recommend Potential DatasetsTask 2 – 2 Months

Recommend Methods, Models, and Tools

Task 3 – 3 Months

Rapid Ecoregional Assessment Work Plan (REAWP)

Task 4 – 2 Months

Task 1 – 3 Months

Compile and Generate “Source” Datasets

Task 5 – 3 Months

Conduct Analyses Generate Findings

Task 6 – 5 Months

Prepare REA Documents

Task 7 – 18 Mo. Total

Completed

What’s next…

Identify Focal Areas

Identify Risks & Opportunities

What we request from you

Encourage dialogue in your communities

Follow our newsletters and keep yourself informed

Feel free to contact us with your ideas

Encourage others to contact us with their ideas

We will come back around completion.

Review

Questions?

Observations?

Comments?