NORTH AMERICAN LOG AND FIBER MARKETS · NORTH AMERICAN LOG AND FIBER MARKETS ©2017 Forest2Market,...
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©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. TIMBER MEASUREMENTS SOCIETY CENTRAL MEETING APRIL 13, 2017 PORTLAND, OREGON NORTH AMERICAN LOG AND FIBER MARKETS
Transcript of NORTH AMERICAN LOG AND FIBER MARKETS · NORTH AMERICAN LOG AND FIBER MARKETS ©2017 Forest2Market,...
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
TIMBER MEASUREMENTS SOCIETYCENTRAL MEETING
APRIL 13, 2017PORTLAND, OREGON
NORTH AMERICAN LOG AND FIBER MARKETS
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
• Demand the for North American wood supply• US production by region• Regional log market trends• Canadian lumber production• Wood chips and fiber• Conclusion and some predictions
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US HOUSING DRIVES THE LUMBER MARKET
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Improved housing demand benefitslumber‐panel producers .
2018 total US lumber supply‐demand projection 51.5 BBF.
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
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10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Housing starts Total US lbr supply
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WHERE DOES US SOFTWOOD LUMBER COME FROM?
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Volume MBF
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
West South Other ImportsSource: WWPA
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PNW DOUGLAS FIR REGION
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DEMAND DRIVES PRIVATE HARVEST
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0
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200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
1000
2000
3000
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6000
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OR/WA harvest Log exports Doug fir westside domestic logs
WA‐OR Total Harvest MBF
$ / MBF
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PNW DOUGLAS FIR LOGS AND LUMBER
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$ / MBF
$100.00
$200.00
$300.00
$400.00
$500.00
$600.00
$700.00
$800.00
D‐Fir GRN Doug fir log cost Linear ( Doug fir log cost)
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SEASONAL PRICE ADJUSTMENTS
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$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
Westside domestic Douglas fir
Westside domestic Douglas fir
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REGIONAL DOUGLAS FIR LOG PRICE TRENDS
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$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
Puget Sound Southern Oregon
$ / MBF
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SOUTHERN PINE REGION
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SOUTHERN PINE REGION HARVESTS
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0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
Pine Pulpwood Hardwood Pulpwood Pine Sawtimber
Green tons
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SOUTHERN PINE LOGS AND LUMBER
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$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
$450.00
Southern Pine lumber composite Southern pine log cost
Linear (Southern pine log cost)
$/MBF
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CANADIAN LUMBER AND US HOUSING
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CANADIAN LUMBER EXPORT; US IS THE FAVORED DESTINATION
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
China US
Volume MBF
Source: WWPA
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CANADIAN REGIONAL LUMBER PRODUCTION AND US EXPORTS
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4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
BC prod BC exports US East Canada prod East Canada exports to US
Volume MBF
Source :WWPA
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15% OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON TIMBER HARVEST IS EXPORTED
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PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOG EXPORTS BY DESTINATION
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Volu
me
MB
F sc
ribne
rNorthwest Log Exports to Asia - Breakbulk Volume
Japan Korea ChinaSource: Jones Stevedoring
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EXPORT LOG PRICE HISTORY
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$300.00
$400.00
$500.00
$600.00
$700.00
$800.00
$900.00
DF J‐sort Hem‐fir China
$ / MBF
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WOOD CHIPS AND FIBER
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SOFTWOOD CHIPS REGIONAL PRICING
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50
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100
110
120
130
140
Southern pine chips PNW conifer chips
$ / BDT
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SOFTWOOD PULP WOOD REGIONAL PRICING
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$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
$55.00
Southern pine pulpwood PNW conifer pulpwood
$ / green ton
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CONCLUSIONS
• The housing market will remain strong through 2018• Good demand for lumber and panels• Strong dollar influence on imports and exports• Southern pine region has abundant timber and production will expand• Western US is timber supply constrained; regulation and public stumpage• Softwood lumber agreement negotiations• British Columbia production will decline • Likely more mill PNW closures and consolidations• Outlook is more positive than a year ago
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ALWAYS REMEMBER: WATCH FOR WHAT’S COMING AROUND THE BEND!
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CONTACT
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Gordon CulbertsonDirector - International Business Development(541) 285 [email protected]
Forest2Market15720 Brixham Hill Ave
Suite 550Charlotte, NC 28277
