Nordea Shipping Seminar · 11/26/2008 · Nordea Shipping Seminar Nordea - A Proven Business Model...
Transcript of Nordea Shipping Seminar · 11/26/2008 · Nordea Shipping Seminar Nordea - A Proven Business Model...
Nordea Shipping Seminar Nordea - A Proven Business Model Through The Cycles
Stockholm, November 26, 2008
Carl E. Steen, Head of Shipping, Oil Services and International Division (SOSID)
Ronny Bjørnådal, Head of Syndicated Loans, SOSID
Gunnar Negaard, Head of Credit, SOSID
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Program & Speakers
10.00 – 10.30 Nordea’s strategy and position within shipping Carl E Steen Head of Shipping, Oil Services and International Division (SOSID)
10.30 – 10.50 The market for shipping syndications Ronny Bjørnådal Head of Syndicated Loans (SOSID)
10.50 – 11.10 Coffee break
11.10 – 11.30 Nordea’s shipping credit portfolio Gunnar Negaard Head of Credit (SOSID)
11.30 – 12.00 Questions and answers
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Carl E. Steen
Head of Shipping, Oil Services and International Division
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Key MessagesModest exposure to the container ship and the dry bulk markets
Well diversified credit portfolio
Strong syndication franchise. Successfully syndicated substantially all transactions to target hold level or below
Credit portfolio is secured by mortgaged assets generating cash flow
A loan agreement typically includes a comprehensive set of financial covenants (including value maintenance test) providing additional protection for the banks and ability to act swiftly
Well proven business model and credit policy applied consistently for 15 years
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Nordea - Shipping, Offshore and Oil Services Division A World Leading Shipping and Offshore Bank
Ranked by Dealogic the leading bookrunner of syndicated loans in 2007 and the first 9 months of 2008The 4th largest lender to the shipping and offshore industries in terms of credit exposure90 professionals employed worldwide with unchanged top management since 1992A platform of industry experience and strong structuring and syndication skills
HELSINKI
GOTHENBURG
COPENHAGEN
NEW YORK
SINGAPORE
LONDON
OSLO
Nordea (SOOS)
One of the leading financial institutions to the global shipping and offshore industriesServices companies within the international shipping, offshore, oil services, cruise and ferries industries
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StrategyNordea shall be a leading provider of financial services to the international shipping and offshore industry
Engage in active relationships with large, transparent and preferably publicly listed companies
Maintain a diversified portfolio with high quality across our core segments and defined geographical markets
Focus on risk, cost and capital efficiency, and meet Nordea’s overall targets for profitability
Be one of the leading arrangers of syndicated loans to the shipping and offshore industries with respect to origination, structuring and syndication
Be a well respected, predictable, knowledgeable long-term partner with our customers
The credit policy shall be based on a long term view and be targeted to operate anti-cyclical in core segments with assets frequently traded in the sale and purchase market
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Background – Market UpdateMassive ordering activity in the past few years has lead to the largest order-book ever in shippingThe financial crisis has reduced availability of trade credit and capital to finance new vesselsThe downturn in the global economy has lead to a significant decline in world trade, with an uncertain near term economic outlookThe result has been a reduction in freight rates and asset values for shipping, particularly within the dry bulk and container ship segments
Price of steel has fallen sharply, resulting in a substantial decline in iron ore shipments
The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) for bulk shipping (iron ore, coal and grain) has dropped more than 90% since its peak in May 2008
The Howe Robinson Container Index for container vessels has fallen 30% since the beginning of 2008
Importers have problems securing letter of credit, and many counterparts are unacceptable to exporters
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Dry Bulk Market (Capesize)
Source: R.S. Platou Economic Research a.s.
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Container Ship Market
Source: R.S. Platou Economic Research a.s.
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Tanker Market (Very Large Crude Carriers)
Source: R.S. Platou Economic Research a.s.
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Offshore Market (Drilling Rig and Supply Vessels)
Source: R.S. Platou Economic Research a.s.
Main driver for the drilling rig and supply boat market is E&P spending by oil and gas companies
E&P spending has increased significantly during recent years as oil and gas prices have improved
Future development in oil and gas prices will determine the direction of these markets
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World Fleets & Orderbooks
Source: Clarkson Research Studies
Biggest orderbook since 1973. 833 Capesize vessels (equal to 155.3 million dwt or 109.8% of the existing fleet) is in order
The industry is debating how much will be delivered. Shipowners will walk away from deposits, and part of the orderbook is contracted on greenfield yards which may never deliver any vessel
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Well Diversified Portfolio EURm 14,148 distributed across segments and geographical areas
Crude Oil Tankers9 %
Product Tankers9 %
Chemical Tankers7 %
Dry Cargo12 %
LPG Gas Tankers2 %
LNG Gas Tankers3 %
RoRo Vessels2 %
Container Ships2 %
Car Carriers3 %
Other Shipping8 %
Drilling Rigs11 %
Supply Vessels7 %
Floating Production2 %
Oil Services3 %
Cruise4 %
Ferries2 %
Non-Shipping13 %
Segment Booking Unit
Oslo57 %
Copenhagen8 %
Helsinki2 %
Gothenburg4 %
Singapore14 %
London6 %
New York9 %
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Shipping and Oil Services Loan Portfolio (Q3 2008) EURmSegment Utilised exposure In %Crude Oil Tankers 1,307 9.2%Product Tankers 1,288 9.1%Chemical Tankers 1,046 7.4%Dry Cargo 1,665 11.8%LPG Gas Tankers 252 1.8%LNG Gas Tankers 416 2.9%RoRo Vessels 301 2.1%Container Ships 311 2.2%Car Carriers 384 2.7%Other Shipping * 1,182 8.4%
Total Shipping 8,152 57.6%Drilling Rigs 1,510 10.7%Supply Vessels 1,024 7.2%Floating Production 296 2.1%Oil Services 471 3.3%
Total Offshore and Oil Services 3,301 23.3%Cruise 505 3.6%Ferries 302 2.1%
Total Cruise and Ferries 807 5.7%Non-shipping (property, shares, cash secured, bank/state guarantees) 1,888 13.3%TOTAL (SOS) 14,148 100.0% *) Eg customers with assets in several segments
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Well Managed Growth EURm - Drawn/Utilized Amount
Source: Nordea
14.148
11.253
9.5798.317
6.1666.147
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Q3)
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Financial Results – 2003 to 2008 (3Q)* EURm
Steady increase of total income, despite increasingly weaker credit margins in 2004 - 2008
Increase in operating profit largely driven by non-lending income (i.e., market, cash management, commission income, etc)
Positive development of deposit volumes
Historical low loan losses
(*) SOSID figures less net effect of International Network.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (3Q)
Total income 156 168 182 218 240 214 Total expenses (31) (32) (38) (43) (45) (37) Profit before losses 124 136 144 175 195 177 Loan recoveries / losses (2) 7 7 1 0 2 Operating profit 122 143 151 176 195 179
Loan volumes (ytd avg) 7.052 6.676 7.137 9.005 10.184 11.888 Deposit volumes (ytd avg) 1.863 2.618 2.815 3.298 4.976 5.125
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Low Loan Losses in Historical Perspective EURm/Basis Points in relation to Total exposure
-16.500
-15.000
-13.500
-12.000
-10.500
-9.000
-7.500
-6.000
-4.500
-3.000
-1.500
0
1.500
3.000
4.500
6.000
7.500
9.000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q3 2008-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
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Net Loan Recovery (+) / Loss (-)Basis Points
Loan losses since 2001 are modest at 3 bps of total exposure
This is due to a strong focus on credit risk
During the last 20 years loan losses for shipping, offshore and oil services have only been 12 bps on a yearly average basis
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Managing the Market SituationNordea has been anticipating a softer market environment during the past 18 months thus we have applied a more rigorous risk assessment when determining which transactions to finance
Lending activities are mainly focused on large, transparent and primarily publicly listed companies with strong ownership and professional management
Actively managed our loan portfolio so that it is well diversified across core segments and core geographical areas
Container ship and dry bulk exposures constitute only 2.2% and 11.8%, respectively of our division’s total lending
Successfully syndicated substantially all underwritten transactions to target hold level or below
Well managed growth strategy
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Managing the Market Situation (cont’d)Our shipping and offshore loan books constitute only 3.0% and 1.2%, respectively, of Nordea’s total lending
The vast majority of loans to the shipping and offshore industries are secured by mortgages in vessels and drilling rigs, often supported by contracted cash flow from credit approved counterparts
Transactions are typically well structured with amortizations related to the age of the vessels, many with front heavy repayments
Loan agreements typically include a comprehensive set of financial and other covenants giving the lenders ability to act in a swiftly manner an early stage
Many of the segments we finance, such as tankers and offshore, continue to enjoy satisfactory earnings
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Ronny Bjørnådal
Head of Syndicated Loans, SOSID
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Trends in the Syndicated Loan MarketVolume off from 2007 levels due to reduced M&A and refinancing activities
Significant tightening of credit standards and desire to use capital strategically reduce availability of credit dramatically
Improved pricing and structure to adopt to new market realities
Fundamental and rapid shift in influence from borrower to lender
Consolidation of banks and appetite for smaller hold levels means less capacity
Relationships determine demand more than deal characteristics
Banks have depleted capital bases
Lack of information brings uncertainty and hesitation
Well structured credits still attractive
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Trends in the Syndicated Loan Market (cont’d)Unique opportunity for new entrants
Increased interest from private equity and distressed funds to invest in shipping companies
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Spreads Back Up From Year End 2007 Levels
Source: Reuters Loan Pricing Corporation / DealScan
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Average Deal Size Nordea Lead Arranged Transactions
Source: Nordea
$260
$370
$256
$236
$291
$388
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
$325
$350
$375
$400
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
(In million)
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Global Loan Issuance Halved in 3Q08 from 3Q07
• Global lending plummets 54% to $475bn in 3Q08 from 3Q07
• A pattern of shorter tenors, with loans maturing within 1- 3 years accounting for 49% of total volume compared with 29% in 2007
• Average pricing has increased substantially across all rated borrowers
• More comprehensive set of financial covenants
Source: Reuters LPC
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Nordea Lead Arranged Loan Volume 2002 – 2008Loan volume lead arranged by Nordea increased steady from 2002 – 2006Since 2H2007 loan volume has come down due to the credit crunch/financial crisisLess transactions in 2008 but an increased volume due to some jumbo transactions:
$3.0 Billion for BW Group$2.3 Billion for Prosafe$1.5 Billion for Fred Olsen Energy$1.4 Billion for Ship Finance
Nordea has been successful in syndicating substantially all transactions that it has lead arranged/ underwrittenIn average Nordea held 21% in each lead arranged syndicated facility in 2008
In billion
Source: Nordea
$5,8$8,7
$12,4
$19,2
$26,3
$22,1 $22,9
$1,5 $1,7 $2,1$4,1
$5,6 $4,8 $4,9
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (3Q)
Arranged amount Nordea hold amount
Shipping and Offshore
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Dealogic Shipping League Tables (YTD 3Q2008)
Nordea tops Dealogic’s Shipping League Table for the first 9 months in 2008 as a Bookrunner
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Gunnar Negaard
Head of Credit, SOSID
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Customers
Nordic and international
Good business reputation and credit profile
Qualities of:
management,
ownership and group structure,
market expertise,
operational experience and
environmental issues
Leading market operators
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Credit Parameters
Target to operate anti cyclical in core segments
Normally, loans shall be collateralised. Unsecured loans shall only be granted to the financially strongest customers, and then to companies that are substantially financed on a negative pledge basis
Choice of covenants depends on the borrower and the structure ofthe loan. Normally, all ship mortgage financings should includeminimum value clause
Vessels above 15 years of age to be repaid to historical low value or scrap value before the vessel reaches the age of 20 years
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Risk Management of the Portfolio
Consistent and prudent credit risk management over a long time period
Integrated in the Nordea Group’s credit decision-making structure
The overall exposure is limited by caps set each year by Nordea’s Board of Directors
Aim at maintaining a significant and diversified Nordic and international quality portfolio comprising the leading names in the various segments, with the larger part secured against liquid assets
Relationship with leading market operators, based on quality, competence and high service level, not through willingness to accept higher risks or lower prices
Long term exposure above €250m to an unlisted customer group should only be done on a selective basis
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Distribution of Exposures by Booking Unit
New York9 % London
6 %
Singapore14 %
Sweden4 %
Norway57 %
Denmark8 %
Finland2 %
New York London Singapore Sweden Finland Denmark Norway
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3,2
3,4
3,6
3,8
4,0
4,2
4,4
2002-Q2
2002-Q3
2002-Q4
2003-Q1
2003-Q2
2003-Q3
2003-Q4
2004-Q1
2004-Q2
2004-Q3
2004-Q4
2005-Q1
2005-Q2
2005-Q3
2005-Q4
2006-Q1
2006-Q2
2006-Q3
2006-Q4
2007-Q1
2007-Q2
2007-Q3
2007-Q4
2008-Q1
2008-Q2
2008-Q3
Average Credit Rating
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Development in loan loss provisions
-0,40 %
-0,20 %
0,00 %
0,20 %
0,40 %
0,60 %
0,80 %
1,00 %
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Loan provisions Average loan provisions
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Carl E. Steen
Head of Shipping, Oil Services and International Division
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Key MessagesModest exposure to the container ship and the dry bulk markets
Well diversified credit portfolio
Strong syndication franchise. Successfully syndicated substantially all transactions to target hold level or below
Credit portfolio is secured by mortgaged assets generating cash flow
A loan agreement typically includes a comprehensive set of financial covenants (including value maintenance test) providing additional protection for the banks and ability to act swiftly
Well proven business model and credit policy applied consistently for 15 years