NM Economic Situation

September 2012Suzan Reagan, Labor Economist

The recovery has started, really!2010-2020 Projections

Labor Market Information•Job Descriptions•Education•Wages•Employment levels•Future Growth

1)NM Economic SituationIndustry

Recession History/impact of Current SituationWhat’s Next (2010-2020)

Occupations Hot JobsClustersSTEM & Healthcare

Agenda

2)Sources:

Career Solutions LASERCareerOnestop.org

The Great Recession

•Started December 2007

• Housing Peaked on 2006

• High Oil and Gas prices early 2007

• Financial Markets in August 2007

New MexicoTotal Non-Farm Employment Seasonally Adjusted:

Max. April 2008: 850,200Min. August 2012: 792,300Difference: -57,900

The Great Recession Ended July 2009?

5

Min. August 2012: 792,000 August 2011: 804,400 Over -the-year change: -12,400

New Mexico Total Non-farm Seasonally Adjusted Employment

NM Industries Change

HOW DID NEW MEXICO HANDLE THE RECESSION?

•Mining lost over 500

•Construction shed about 16,000

•Manufacturing lost another 8,000

•Retail took a hit with 6,000

•Admin & Waste Svs 5,000

•Bright spot Health Care +12,000

AgricultureMiningUtilities

ConstructionManufacturing

Wholesale TradeRetail Trade

Transportation & WarehousingInformation

Finance and InsuranceReal Estate

Professional & Technical ServicesManagement Companies & Enterprises

Administrative & Waste ServicesEducational Services

Health Care and Social AssistanceArts, Entertainment, & RecreationAccommodation & Food ServicesOther Services, Ex. Public Admin

Public Administration

-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NMDWS

To 1st Qtr 2012562 Ag

3,398 Mining-27 Utils.

-1,843 Const. 532 Manuf. 459 Whole. 1,111 Retail

955 Trans. 12 Info.-368 Fin. -116 RE

-945 Prof. 0 Mgmt.

-1,922 Admin.-961 Ed.

2,223 Health526 Arts

151 Accom.111 Other-1,670 PA

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

63846312

5892

5532

6900

8292

1156811352

1056010428 10800

9804

9084 9624

11268

1318813908 14112

12516

9120

5808

45604562

4029

2451

New Mexico Private Housing Building Permits, 1988 - Present

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau

Jan-06

Mar-06

May-06

Jul-06Sep

-06

Nov-06Jan

-07

Mar-07

May-07

Jul-07Sep

-07

Nov-07Jan

-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08Sep

-08

Nov-08Jan

-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09Sep

-09

Nov-09Jan

-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10Sep

-10

Nov-10Jan

-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11Sep

-11

Nov-11Jan

-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

NM Oil Rig CountAverage price per barrelin 2006 was $62.65

Average price per Barrelin 2002 was $27.46

Oil prices averaged$91.77 in 2008 Current price per

Barrel is about$93.45

This year prices have continued to be volatile spiking to a highs of over $105 to lows in May under $80

Source: PETROLEUM RECOVERY RESEARCH CENTER, SOCORRO, NM

.Values above 50represent expansion.

1970-01 1972-05 1974-09 1977-01 1979-05 1981-09 1984-01 1986-05 1988-09 1991-01 1993-05 1995-09 1998-01 2000-05 2002-09 2005-01 2007-05 2009-09 2012-010

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

ISM Manufacturing

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

US Retail Sales, 1992 to present

USIn thousands

NM

Total Non-Farm Employment Seasonally Adjusted

NM vs. US Employment from 1990 to Present

1990

-01

1990

-08

1991

-03

1991

-10

1992

-05

1992

-12

1993

-07

1994

-02

1994

-09

1995

-04

1995

-11

1996

-06

1997

-01

1997

-08

1998

-03

1998

-10

1999

-05

1999

-12

2000

-07

2001

-02

2001

-09

2002

-04

2002

-11

2003

-06

2004

-01

2004

-08

2005

-03

2005

-10

2006

-05

2006

-12

2007

-07

2008

-02

2008

-09

2009

-04

2009

-11

2010

-06

2011

-01

2011

-0820

12-3

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

NM US

NM Employment Industry Mix

Source: Projections unit 2010-2020, NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions

Utilities1%

Mgmt of Co.1% Real Estate

1%

Agriculture1%

Arts & Rec.2% Information

2%Transportation

2% Mining2%

Other Svcs 3%

Finance3%

Wholesale3%

Manufacturing4%

Admin. & Waste Mgmt

5%Construction

6%Professional, Sci-

entific, & Tech Svcs7%

Accommodation & Food Services

10%

Educational Svcs10%

Retail Trade11%

Government (Ex. Health & Ed)

12%

Health Care & Social Assistance

15%

2010 Emp. Est.

Current Employment SituationThe unemployment rate for:

August 2012 August 2011

The US is at 8.1% 9.1 %

New Mexico 6.5% 7.5 %

Albuquerque 6.8% 7.9%

Las Cruces 6.7% 7.5%

Santa Fe 5.1% 6.0%

Farmington 6.5% 7.6%

The bad news is…

Seasonally Adjusted

What about…

14

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization U-6

NM 15.3%Third Quarter of 2011 through Second Quarter of 2012 Averages.

• Unemployed

• Part time for economic reasons

• Multiple Jobs holders

•Marginally attached workers

•Bureau of Labor Statistics

•4 QTR Moving Average

•http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm

Part time but would work

full timeDiscouraged unemployed workers

Multiple job holders

Employment to Population Ratio

1-1976 9-1977 5-1979 1-1981 9-1982 5-1984 1-1986 9-1987 5-1989 1-1991 9-1992 5-1994 1-1996 9-1997 5-1999 1-2001 9-2002 5-2004 1-2006 9-2007 5-2009 1-201148

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

New Mexico Not Seasonally Adjusted

Monthly 1976-2012

Employed as a percent of population

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Another look at Employment & Unemployment

1-197611-19779-1979 7-1981 5-1983 3-1985 1-198711-19889-1990 7-1992 5-1994 3-1996 1-199811-19999-2001 7-2003 5-2005 3-2007 1-200911-20100

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

New Mexico's Population Employment Status Monthly from 1976- 2012Not Seasonally Adjusted

Employed Unemployed Civilian noninstitutional population

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

US Unemployment Rates for Men and Women

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Men Women

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

New Mexico Unemployment Rate by Age2011 annual averages

16 to 19 yrs 20 to 24 yrs 25 to 34 yrs 35 to 44 yrs 45 to 54 yrs 55 to 64 yrs 65 years and over

0

5

10

15

20

2522.9

12.5

8.76.5

5.53.9 4.4

Source: Census Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment

7.4%

New Mexico 2010 Unemployment Rate

White, one race

Black or African American, one race

American Indian and Alaska Native, one race

Asian, one race

Some other race

Two or more races

Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race)

White alone, not Hispanic or Latino

Population 20 to 64 years

8.6%

9.2%

14.4%

8.8%

11.6%

11.1%

11.3%

7.2%

9.0%

Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin

Source: 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Table S2301 Employment Status

County Unemployment Rates August 2012

6.57.8

6.2

6.0

7.4

4.44.2

6.6 4.0

7.1

8.9

3.8

4.2

5.3

3.1

16.9

7.913.6

5.8

7.1

7.2

4.4

6.5

6.77.85.2

6.1

4.8

7.9

7.9

4.3

7.8

5.4

7.2

8.2

6.6

6.2

7.8

4.63.8

7.2 4.1

7.2

11.2

4.2

5.9

4.3

5.5

3.1

19.9

8.713.9

7.2

7.2

8.4

4.6

7.1

7.38.15.5

6.7

5.0

9.1

7.7

4.5

8.2

Not seasonally adjustedSource: NMDWS LAUS unit in conjunction with US Bureau of Labor Statistics

NM UI Continued Claims Duration

Based on UI Summary Data 1st Qtr 2012: Average Duration 20.3 weeks in 2011

071-074

072-081

073-082

074-083

081-084

082-091

083-092

084-093

091-094

092-101

093-102

094-103

101-104

102-111

103-112

104-113

111-114

112-121

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90New Mexico: Number of Statewide Unemployed by Duration (in Weeks of Unemployment)

52+ 27-51 15-26 5-14 <5

Four-Quarter Period (Year/Quarter)

Tota

l Une

mpl

oyed

(Tho

usan

ds)

Source: Current Population Survey

What’s Next : Employment Projections 2010-2020

FutureFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The future is the indefinite time period after the present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics.

National Trends – projected population by age

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau

NM Population Projections by Age

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

April 2000

July 2005 July 2010 July 2015 July 2020 July 2025

65 years & over45 to 64 yrs25 to 44 yrs18 to 24 yrs14 to 17 yrs5 to 13 yrsUnder 5 yrs

Source: U.S.Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005

NM Employment Projections 2010-2020

750,000 800,000 850,000 900,000 950,000

1,000,000 1,050,000

855,296

991,600

Growth of 136,304Total Change 15.9%Annual Average Change 1.49%

Source: NMDWS ER&A Projections Unit

2010-2020 Projections Workforce Investment Areas

2010 Estimated Employment 2020 Projected Employment -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Southwestern

Northern

Eastern

Central

Annual Average Percent Change

1.40

1.46

1.50

1.43

Source: NMDWS ER&A Projections Unit

Projected 991,600NM Job Recovery

Max Employment CES April 2008 at 852,000

Dec-07

Mar-08Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

740,000

760,000

780,000

800,000

820,000

840,000

860,000

880,000

900,000

Employment RecoveryEmployment Pre-Recession

Trendline according to 2010-2020 IndustryProjections.

Intersect in 2016.

Casselman, Ben. “A State-by-State Look at Long Road to Jobs Recovery.” Wall Street Journal Blog, November 14, 2011

Tigger Slide

Occupations

30

O*NET / SOC 2010 Code StructureSample code : 15-1152.00 Title: Computer Network Support Specialists

11- Management Occupations13- Business & Financial Operations Occupations15- Computer and Mathematical Occupations17-Architecture and engineering Occupations19- Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations21- Community and Social services Occupations23- Legal Occupations25- Education, Training, and Library Occupations27- Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Related29- Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occs.31- Healthcare Support Occupations

33- Protective Service Occupations35- Food Preparation & Serving Related Occs.37- Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance39- Personal Care and Service Occupations41- Sales and Related Occupations43- Office &Administrative Support Wkrs45- Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occs.47- Construction and Extraction Occs.49- Installation, Maintenance, and Repair51- Production Occupations53- Transportation and Material Moving55- Military Specific Occupations

Organized into Groups:

New Mexico Occupational Group

Management OccupationsBusiness & Financial Operations Occs

Computer & Mathematical OccsArchitecture & Engineering Occs

Life, Physical, & Social Science OccsCommunity & Social Svcs Occs

Legal OccupationsEducation, Training, & Library Occs

Arts, Entertainment, Sports, & MediaHealthcare Practitioners & Technical

Healthcare Support OccsProtective Service Occs

Food Preparation & Serving Related Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance

Personal Care & Service OccsSales & Related Occs

Office & Administrative SupportFarming, Fishing, & Forestry Occs

Construction & Extraction OccsInstallation, Maintenance, & Repair

Production OccupationsTransportation & Material Moving

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000

Employment 2010 - 2020

2020 Projected Employment 2010 Estimated Employment

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

Occupational Employment by Education Needed

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

Some College, no degree1%

Master's degree2% Doctoral or professional degree

3%Postsecondary non-

degree award4%

Associate's degree6%

Bachelor's degree13%

Less than high school30%

High school diploma or equiva-lent42%

NM 10 Occupations with the Highest Employment

Occupation

2010 Estimated

Employment

Retail Salespersons 29,637

Cashiers 19,001

Personal and Home Care Aides 17,778

Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 17,486

Registered Nurses 15,146

Waiters and Waitresses 15,141

General and Operations Managers 13,993

Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 13,692

Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Inc. Fast Food 13,489

Janitors & Cleaners, Except Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners 13,168

Nationally – Retail Salespersons and Cashiers make up nearly 6 percent of total US Employment, OES 2011.

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

NM Occupations, Most Annual Openings

Rank Occupational

2010-2020Annual

Average Job Openings

2011Entry Level Wage (OES)

1 Retail Salespersons 1,435 $17,320

2 Waiters and Waitresses 1,114 $17,260

3 Cashiers 1,112 $17,330

4 Personal and Home Care Aides 1,083 $17,290

5Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Inc. Fast Food 809 $17,200

6 Registered Nurses 667 $50,290

7 Home Health Aides 600 $20,110

8 Customer Service Representatives 501 $20,850

9Elementary School Teachers, Ex Special Education 500 $38,410

10 Laborers & Freight, Stock, & Material Movers 494 $17,510

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

Highest Growth Jobs in NMOccupations 2010-2020

Annual Percent Change

Home Health Aides 4.8%

Personal and Home Care Aides 4.3%

Coaches and Scouts 3.9%

Helpers--Carpenters 3.6%

Interpreters and Translators 3.6%

Meeting and Convention Planners 3.6%

Roustabouts, Oil and Gas 3.4%

Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 3.3%

Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas 3.3%

Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas 3.2%

Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 3.2%

Physical Therapist Assistants 3.1%

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

NM Occupations – High Wage & Growth

Rank Occupational Title

2011Annual

Average Wage (OES)

2010-20Annual Job

Growth

1 Radio Mechanics $46,290 5.1%

2 Interpreters and Translators $53,200 3.6%3 Meeting and Convention Planners $49,500 3.6%

4 Roustabouts, Oil and Gas $34,150 3.4%

5 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers $67,240 3.3%

6 Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas $49,910 3.3%7 Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas $63,980 3.2%

8Philosophy and Religion Teachers, Postsecondary $60,870 3.2%

9 Physical Therapist Assistants $37,730 3.1%

10 Financial Examiners $79,940 3.0%

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections & Occupational Employment Survey Units NMDWS

Show me the money!12 Highest paying jobs in New Mexico 2011

Occupation

Annual Median

Wage (OES )

Psychiatrists $180,740

Family and General Practitioners $174,990 Pediatricians, General $166,810 Dentists, General $157,380 Dentists, All Other Specialists $141,600 Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary $134,610 Engineering Managers $131,290 Pharmacists $117,040 Air Traffic Controllers $114,050 Engineers, All Other $111,100 Materials Scientists $111,090 Natural Sciences Managers $106,360 Podiatrists $104,210

Source: Occupational Employment Survey (OES) Unit NMDWS

Lowest Paying Jobs in New Mexico

Occupation

2011 Average Annual Wage

(OES)

Baggage Porters and Bellhops $18,580

Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners $18,570

Graders and Sorters, Agricultural Products $18,560

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials $18,390

Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse $18,350

Food Preparation and Serving Related Workers, All Other $18,310

Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials $18,310

Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop $18,300

Dishwashers $18,270

Child Care Workers $18,260

Source: Occupational Employment Survey (OES) Unit NMDWS

The Top 15 NM Occupations in Decline 2010-2020Occupation Title Annual Percent

Change

Postal Service Clerks -6.0%Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators -6.0%

Prepress Technicians and Workers -3.6%

Postmasters and Mail Superintendents -2.7%

Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service -2.7%

Desktop Publishers -2.5%

Office Machine Operators, Except Computer -1.9%

Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers -1.7%

Camera Operators, Television, Video, and Motion Picture -1.5%

Radio and Television Announcers -1.4%

Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials -1.4%

Motion Picture Projectionists -1.3%

Gaming Change Persons and Booth Cashiers -1.3%

Reporters and Correspondents -1.3%

Floral Designers -1.2%

Detailed job profile for nearly 800 occupations

• Job Description +knowledge, skills, tasks, abilities• SOC and O*NET

• Training Program Completers• Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) crosswalk Many-to-Many

• Typical Education Requirements• Wage Statistics by area and industry• Employment Projections• Employment by Industry• Area’s available:

– Statewide, – 4 MSA’s, – 4 Workforce Investment Regions

Tools for LMI• Career Solutions : http://www.dws.state.nm.us/careersolutions/

• LASER: http://laser.state.nm.us/

• NM Workforce Connection: https://www.jobs.state.nm.us/

• Green Jobs: http://www.greenjobs.state.nm.us

• National http://careeronestop.org/

• O*NET lookup http://www.onetonline.org/

•O*NET Academy http://www.onetacademy.org/

Job Corp Pathways• Welding• Cement Masonry• Plumbing• Electrical Wiring• Facilities

Maintenance• Carpentry• Office Admin.• Health Occupations

Education Pays

Thank You!

Suzan ReaganE-mail suzan.reagan@state.nm.usPhone (505) 383-2731