Newsletter issue 20

mtm SCHOOL MATTERS

mtmCONSULTING

strategy for education

ISSUE 20

SEPTEMBER 2015

01 mtmconsulting Ltd (a brand of Education Market Research Solutions Ltd)

01502 722787 or 507408 www.mtmconsulting.co.uk

Page 2:

What mumsnet can do for you

Did you know all our newsletters, latest blogs and

details of mtminsights events are available online?

www.mtmconsulting.co.uk

When predictions go wrong

DOMINIC KNIGHT, Senior Researcher at mtmconsulting, considers the implications of the pollsters getting it wrong in their General Election predictions.

Much more than just data

I n our last newsletter, in the light of the

imminent General Election, we explored

what another hung parliament might

mean for education over the next five

years, which was based on an apparently

consistent picture being presented by the

polls.

Contrary to expectations, the first majority Con-

servative government for nearly 20 years was re-

turned on 7th May, with all the implications this will

have for educational policy over the next Parlia-

ment, a subject for a future article.

Here we ask why did all the pollsters suffer their

biggest debacle since 1992? Should we trust their

work in future? What, if any, implications are there

for similar types of research in other areas?

1992 is the obvious starting point as this was the

last time that there was such a large discrepancy

between pollsters’ predictions and the actual out-

come. In the post-mortem that followed, pollsters

came up with the concept of ‘Shy Tories’ – people

who were unwilling to be fully truthful with pollsters

about voting Conservative. There may also have

been a very late swing to the Tories on the day of

the General Election not caught by the polls.

It is often not realised that the headline polling

figures that are presented in the media are usually

not the actual ‘raw’ survey figures but are the end

result of sampling, weighting and multipliers used to

finesse these to create a more balanced and ac-

curate picture of the true state of electoral prefer-

ences from a comparatively small sample. The

methodology was amended in the light of the 1992

experience, and this seemed to do the trick for the

next 20 or so years.

But here we are again in 2015. The British Polling

Council immediately announced an inquiry into

what had happened after the results were known.

This is still ongoing, but it is already clear that 1992

may not be a useful guide. The consensus is that

there weren’t as many ‘Shy Tories’ this time. Like-

wise, there does not appear to have been a late

swing in the polls.

Other explanations currently mooted include:

►‘Lazy Labour’ – the number who actually voted

Labour was notably lower than the number telling

pollsters they were considering doing so. Many of

these appeared to come from the younger age

and poorer socio-demographic groups, whose vot-

er participation rates are among the lowest.

►Online versus telephone. There was a notable

dichotomy between online and telephone surveys:

the former tended to favour Labour and the latter

tended to favour the Tories. This again appears to

be because the groups more likely to use social

media and the Internet are also more likely to be

left wing. Users of online polls by their nature tend

to be self-selecting with the final base more restrict-

Page 3:

The latest mtm ‘Insights’ event – The Dos and Don’ts of Mumsnet

Page 4

Recent demographic changes

and your school

► Continued on page 3



ISSUE 20 mtm SCHOOL MATTERS

I n 2010 the general election was dubbed

the ‘Mumsnet election’ when all the major

political parties clamoured to outdo each

other on the site.

However, if mumsnet’s power to sway parents’ politi-

cal choices and ultimately elections have diminished

since then, its power to inform and influence their

school admission choices has not.

Mumsnet is not only increasingly rivalling schools’ own

websites as a source of key information but also more

importantly as the first port of call for many parents

(especially that premium group of parents moving into

a new area). It is indeed rare these days to type a

school’s name without finding a mumsnet link with a

thread dissecting all aspects of the school. This can go

a long way in influencing the decisions of parents. This

is a direct result of the forum’s reputation for offering

parents diverse but independent advice, informed by

experience either from current or former parents

which serves to paint a clearer picture than any

school website or glossy prospectus.

Recent parent surveys conducted by mtmconsulting

(both new joiners and decliners) have demonstrated

an increasing reliance on social media discussions and

many parents cite the use of social media (mostly

mumsnet) while few cite the school’s own publica-

tions.

Given the significant, and growing position of

mumsnet and social media platforms in informing the

choices of parents, school admissions and marketing

managers must respond to this sooner rather than lat-

er. Based on insight from recent mtmconsulting strate-

gic reviews, online audits and marketing recommen-

dations for schools, the following three measures can

help schools alleviate any possible negative aspects

and enhance their ability to capitalise on the positives

that a platform like mumsnet offers.

1. Digital audits/strategic reviews

In the digital age it is wise to have a digital strategy in

place informed by a comprehensive digital audit and

analysis that is linked to your school’s marketing plan.

This allows you to be aware of how connected you

actually are to potential customers and, most im-

portantly, have the capability/capacity to respond

should you need to. Is there anyone in your school

What mumsnet can do for you

who is responsible for regularly monitoring your

school’s digital reputation?

2. Rapid response

Having the platform capability or capacity to re-

spond is not quite enough in the social media age.

Responses are most effective when delivered

promptly. However it is important to note that it is

never advisable to get into an online argument –

the best strategy is to respond promptly, succinctly,

factually whenever it is needed. Does your school

have anyone who is clearly responsible for this with

the appropriate training in place?

3. Stakeholder involvement

Social media platforms and discussion forums like

mumsnet are trumping school websites because of

one simple truth: they are talking to other mums

who offer them detailed, relevant and authorita-

tive information just as they need it. As such, allow-

ing your school’s own parents (and pupils) a voice

on your platforms (such as blogging) could en-

hance the online reputation of your school. Clearly

this needs an element of control, such as using sup-

portive parents from your Friends or Parents’ Com-

mittee.

It’s clear that mumsnet is becoming more powerful

than your school’s own marketing collateral and is

often the most important source of information for

prospective parents who do not have a direct

word-of-mouth recommendation. As such, it should

be included as an integral part of your strategic

marketing plan.

For advice on how to harness the power of

mumsnet, email [email protected] or call

01502 722787. Alternatively, our next mtminsights

event covers this area (details opposite).

mtmconsulting Researcher and IT Specialist MODOU JALLOW shows how important it is to consider mumsnet and other social media as part of your marketing strategy.



mtm SCHOOL MATTERS

ed to these groups, skewing the result.

►Pollster ‘herding’. At the bottom line, polling

companies are businesses – they want to make

sure their data is credible to clients – and this might

unconsciously cause a homogenisation of results

where data contrary to expectations and what

competitors are producing is weeded out as

‘rogue’. In this election, pollsters have been ac-

cused of this type of ‘herding’, resulting in suspi-

ciously similar polling results irrespective of sample

size, methodology and source.

None of these, of course, may actually be rele-

vant; we will have to see what the final conclusions

of the review are.

What does this mean for survey based research in

general? Polling surveys are a highly specialised

part of the industry, and the issues outlined above

are largely specific to them.

Non-polling surveys tend to involve more narrowly

defined groups for specific clients than polling sur-

veys. Schools, for example, will know who their par-

ents are or recorded those who have expressed an

interest in the school. There is usually no need to

‘fish’ for the right type of respondent in the way

polling surveys do, nor will there usually be an extra

layer of weighting or multipliers used. The raw data

will be the basis of subsequent reporting – what you

see will be what you get. It will be a snapshot rather

than a prediction.

Respondents are also unlikely to be too con-

cerned about how they answer questions and are

more likely to be truthful as a result. These are also

subject to rigorous data protection legislation as

well, addressing any concerns about being singled

out by a client for being too critical. You can be

sure that any findings or opinions given are likely to

be an accurate reflection of what those surveyed

actually think.

Finally, these surveys are also much more con-

crete than theoretical and specific to the client.

This means in-depth, useful information that can be

acted upon.

Although the pollsters did not cover themselves in

glory back in May, this does not diminish the value

of online and telephone surveys as an investigative

tool. We at mtm pride ourselves at bringing many

years’ experience and best practice to survey work

helping our clients get the best possible high-quality

information for their marketing efforts.

If you want to find out more about what we can

do for you, contact James Leggett at mtmconsult-

ing ([email protected]).

► Continued from page 1

mtmINSIGHTS

mtmconsulting seminars for

school leaders The mtminsights events enable delegates to access the

latest research and ideas, and to apply them in their

schools.

13th October 2015

The Dos and Don’ts of

Mumsnet

One Euston Square (adjacent to Euston Station), 40 Melton

Street, London NW1 2FD

9.30 am to 2 pm, including lunch. Bring your laptop/tablet!

We are very pleased to play host to Rebecca Mears, Head of

Community at mumsnet, with Holly Christie, Director of Chip-

munk Design and Marketing Manager at Park Hill

School, detailing the importance of social media in your

school, which platforms you should be using, and how to man-

age the them.

Rebecca will be talking through the dos and don’ts of

mumsnet, answering questions such as:

♦ How can we encourage our parents to write good things

about us?

♦ Can we start a conversation on our school just to get feed-

back?

♦ Should we respond to negative comments about us, and if

so how?

♦ How can we make mumsnet work for us?

♦ What are parents looking for regarding schools on

mumsnet?

We are asked these questions time and time again, so we

decided to ask them at source. This is an invaluable opportuni-

ty for marketers at independent schools to ask the questions

they have been dying to ask for so long to mumsnet directly.

In addition to this, Holly Christie, our specialist social media

expert, will discuss:

♦ The appropriate social media for your school

♦ Management strategies for all the platforms

♦ Maximising your exposure through social media

♦ Making sure your social media reflects your marketing strat-

egy

This will be followed by a workshop where you can use your

device to apply what you have learnt, asking our experts as

you go, to ensure you leave the morning better informed than

when you arrived.

There will then be a delicious lunch.

Fee £250 inc vat. These events are limited to 30 delegates and

likely to be oversubscribed, so early booking is advised.

To book a place, call us on 01502 722787 or go to our website

www.mtmconsulting.co.uk



ISSUE 20 mtm SCHOOL MATTERS

Recent demographic changes and your school

ty. There is already evidence of dissatisfied parents

making increased used of the independent sector.

Secondly, the market is project to grow to 2037, al-

beit it with a brief contraction from 2023–32. As such,

business plans should be focussed on expansion, or

risk losing market share. The positive economy, interest

rate rise notwithstanding, coupled with decreased

satisfaction with state schools should counter the ef-

fects of falling affordability in the short term at least,

although all schools need to be mindful of big fee in-

creases.

Thirdly, Free Schools need to be monitored. The big-

gest growth in Free Schools so far has been in areas

where middle-class, educationally aware

‘aspirational’ parents predominate. This market

makes up around 5% of independent school rolls at

present – around 30,000 pupils – which is a small but

not insignificant proportion.

Not all schools will be able to grow. Some already

may be at the full capacity of their sites, whilst others

may not wish to expand. As an alternative, these

schools could perhaps consider raising the standards

of their entrance criteria. Longer term, this should po-

tentially lead to improved academic outcomes and

therefore improved reputation.

The education market as a whole is changing, and

independent schools need accurate and actionable

data to ensure they are prepared for the future in or-

der to remain profitable. Positive population projec-

tions should not be grounds for complacency, but do

offer hope of a good future.

mtmconsulting offers research, marketing and stra-

tegic support services to independent schools. Visit us

at www.mtmconsulting.co.uk or call 01502 722787.

mtmconsulting is now a brand of Education Market

Research Solutions Ltd.

A n uncertain economic climate accom-

panied with falling affordability have

been mainstays of independent school rhet-

oric in over the last five years, but one thing

that has been constant is the birth rate.

We have analysed the year-on-year change in the

projected numbers of 0–4 year olds to 2037. Whilst the

birth rate has been increasing year on year, it ap-

pears this peaked in 2014. Whilst the numbers of 0–4s

in total are continuing to increase, the rate of growth

is reducing. Current projections issued by the Office of

National Statistics suggest the numbers of 0–4 year

olds within England will continue to grow until 2021,

although with a slight dip from 2016–17. The figures

suggest there will be a return to growth in 2032–33.

Over the period from 2012 to 2037, we expect there to

be an increase in the number of 0–4 year olds of

around 1.7%.

What about the regions?

Regionally the picture is somewhat different. East

Anglia has experienced a declining birth rate since

2012–13 and is projected to experience the greatest

decline of all the regions, with contraction of 0.61%

from 2025–26, whilst the South West, somewhat surpris-

ingly, shows minimal decline of only 0.06% from 2027–

28, but otherwise will continue to see growth. London

is not expected to have an easy time and will fare

slightly worse than the South East.

What does this mean for independent schools?

First and foremost, the state-maintained sector is al-

ready creaking under the pressure, with no significant

plans for investment in existing primary schools – it is

hoped the Free School system will pick up this capaci-

JAMES LEGGETT, mtmconsulting Research Director, dissects the latest population projections for children up to the age of four in England and considers implications for school rolls.

If you want to work with us or find out more about

what we could do for you, email :

[email protected]

Newsletter issue 20

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