New Zealand Transport Outlook

David Ryan Ministry of Transport

Background to the Transport Outlook

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– What is it?

• a high-level view of the state of the transport system (freight and passengers – all modes)

• commentary on emerging trends, issues, and influences

• 30-year projections of future transport demand

• a consistent and accessible set of information and assumptions

• report, on-line dashboard, data and models

– Target audiences

• transport sector stakeholders

• public in general

• Not a government policy/strategy document, roadmap, or action plan

• Not investment guidelines or priorities

Today’s presentation

– Some interesting examples and gems of information on the current state of our transport system

– Next presentations:

• Ralph Samuelson: our modelling approach + sample of results from our household travel model

• Haobo Wang: results of our aviation model

– Full results to be released in March 2017 + full data sets and explanation of modelling methodologies

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Our population is growing and moving

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0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1926 1938 1950 1962 1974 1986 1998 2010 2048

Our population is poised to grow quickly

New Zealand population

40%

44%

48%

52%

56%

1996 2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043

Golden triangle Other regions

Over half the population will live in the golden triangle (Auckland,

Waikato, Bay of Plenty)

Lines cross in 2018

What do these population changes mean for the transport sector?

How to maintain transport infrastructure in both high-concentration areas and in less dense areas (where often tourists outnumber locals, e.g. West Coast)?

We’re getting older

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What does an ageing population mean for the transport sector?

Potential safety issues (older drivers have a higher accident rate)

Increasing demand for public transport with good accessibility and safety features

Need for improved road signage, wider pavements for mobility scooters, lifts at transport terminals

In the future, self-drive vehicles could open up transport possibilities for older people who can’t or don’t like to drive

9.9 14.3 26.7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1981 2013 2063 (projected)

Under 15 15-64 65+

Breakdown of population by age

.. we’re getting older, and a lot more older New Zealanders will remain in the work force

Almost one quarter of those aged 65+ are still in the workforce

Lots of people love to visit us

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-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 2022

We’ll be sharing our roads, airports,

trains etc with a lot more tourists

International visitors

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Passengers (left axis)

Voyages (right axis)

... and a lot more tourists

are arriving on cruise ships

Growing cruise industry

What does the tourism boom mean for the transport sector?

• Congestion pinch points in some areas, eg approaches to Queenstown, roads in and out of Auckland airport

• Need to develop infrastructure, eg large docks for cruise ships, airport gates for larger aircraft

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We’re a trading nation: 99% of our imports

and exports by volume come by sea

Our ports are getting busier and

investing heavily

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

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15

Exports Imports

Merchandise imports and exports by sea (tonnes)

Our ports are hives of activity

www.newstalkzb.co.nz

www.stuff.co.nz

www.stuff.co.nz

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Air passenger travel is growing strongly

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Jun

-20

00

Mar

-20

01

Dec

-20

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Sep

-20

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Jun

-20

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Mar

-20

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Dec

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Sep

-20

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Jun

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Mar

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Dec

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Sep

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International air travel Domestic air travel

More people are flying the nest

New Zealanders love to

travel ... overseas

travel is getting cheaper

Cost of travel relative to salaries and wages

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Dunedin Queenstown Wellington

Christchurch Auckland

Total passengers (million) through main

airports

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Auckland is our main gateway

Our airports are taking off

... look at what’s happening in Queenstown, our

fastest growing airport: 10x growth from

fewer than 40,000 international passengers

in 2005 to 440,000 ten years later

Queenstown airport passenger numbers

75.9%

12.6%

7.2%

3.9% 0.4%

Auckland

Christchurch

Wellington

Queenstown

Dunedin

Airport share of international passengers

34.3%

21.5%

20.6%

5.1%

3.7%

3.2%

2.5%

2.2% 1.5% 5.2% Auckland

Wellington

Christchurch

Queenstown

Dunedin

Nelson

Hawke's Bay

Palmerston North

New Plymouth

Others

Airport share of domestic

passengers

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Domestic International

Wellington is

punching above

its weight: our

domestic hub

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We’re investing a lot on the roads

Changes up ahead on the road

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

0

1

2

3

New local roads Local road maintenance

State highway maintenance New State highways

NZTA expenditure ($ billion) on new roads and road maintenance Let’s not forget climate change: costs are rising to repair damage caused by climate-related events or to relocate infrastructure

Also rail is affected, eg wash-out of Gisborne-Napier line

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

20

01

20

03

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05

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07

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09

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25

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27

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29

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20

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20

35

20

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20

39

Petrol Diesel LPG/CNG

Electric Hybrid petrol/diesel Plug-in hybrid (diesel)

Plug-in hybrid (petrol)

Projected composition of light vehicle fleet

And on our roads in future, what are we going to see?

A lot more vehicles ... and by 2040 electric vehicles and hybrids will make up 54% of the light vehicle fleet (now it’s < 1%)

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New Zealanders love to get in their cars Use of modes by trip legs (2010-14) – people aged 5+

We really love our cars

Car driver (52.5%)

Car passenger (26.0%)

Pedestrian (16.5%)

Public transport (2.8%)

Cyclist (1.2%)

Motorcycle/other (1.0%)

... more and more

0%

20%

40%

60%

1989/90

2010/14

Shift in mode preference for household travel

... but fewer young people are getting their driver’s licence

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65–74 75+

1990 2013

What does this show? • More inner-city living + amenities for

biking and walking and improved public transport = less need for car use and a driver’s licence

• Even less need for a licence in future with self-driving cars

Older New Zealanders: remaining more mobile and more active in the workforce

% of people with full driver’s licence

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Motorcyclists: an interesting demographic shift

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

15–29 30–44 45+

Open road

Urban road

Motorcyclists - distance (km) travelled per annum by age group A surprising demographic

change:

The typical motorcyclist is now an older male on a powerful beast on the

open road with the wind blowing through his thinning, grey hair

(under his helmet) 0

50

100

150

200

250

15–29 30–44 45+

1989

2013

Motorcyclists – annual distance (million km) travelled by age group

jpcycles.com

0

100

200

300

400

500

Car occupants Motorcyclists Cyclists Pedestrians Bus passengers

Deaths/injuries per 100 million km travelled Deaths/injuries per million hours travelled

Motorcycling is the least safe transport mode

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Public transport is growing – mostly in Auckland

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Bus Train Ferry

New Zealand public transport boardings (millions)

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

0 1 2 3 4 5 or more

Use of public transport in the past year (2011-14) by number of vehicles in household

Public transport is on the up

More vehicles in a household = less public transport use

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

No vehicle 1 vehicle 2 vehicles 3 or more vehicles

1996

2001

2006

2013 Households now have more cars: the most common household has two cars – what does this mean

for public transport?

Thank you

These are just some tantalising teasers: read the full report in March 2017 for

a lot more

David Ryan Ministry of Transport d.ryan@transport.govt.nz 04 439 9368 021 543 449

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