New Jersey Regional Employment Projections: 2004-2014

There are two ways to analyze employment data, each having significant collection methods and importance

Industrial Employment

Collected via combination of Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)

Includes all non-agricultural payroll employment

Occupational Employment

Collected via the Occupational Employment Statistics survey (OES), a sample of employers used to develop staffing patterns across all industries

Includes all non-agricultural payroll employment PLUS the self-employed and unpaid family workers

STATE AND NATIONAL INDUSTRY

REVIEW

Employment in New Jersey is projected to grow at a steady 1.0% annual rate, but still lag that of the nation

10.1

14.1

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Total Nonfarm

Empl

oym

ent C

hang

e ( %

)

Goods-Producing industries will continue to decline in New Jersey while remaining relatively flat for the nation

10.1

-8.4

14.1

-0.1

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing

Empl

oym

ent C

hang

e ( %

)

Service-Providing industries will again account for all growth in both the state and the nation

10.1

-8.4

12.814.1

-0.1

17.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing Services-Providing

Empl

oym

ent C

hang

e ( %

)

By 2014, nearly nine out of every ten jobs in NJ will be found within a Service-Providing industry

4,403,200

463,400

3,939,800

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing Services-Providing

Empl

oym

ent

For the nation, 85% of total employment will be found within Service-Providing industries

150,877,000

21,787,000

129,090,000

0

40,000,000

80,000,000

120,000,000

160,000,000

Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing Services-Providing

Empl

oym

ent

STATEWIDE MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTOR REVIEW

Modest growth in Construction will offset deep losses in Manufacturing among Goods-Producing industries

-42,300

-59,900

17,700

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

Empl

oym

ent C

hang

e

Goods-Producing Manufacturing Construction

Widespread losses in manufacturing are led by these industries:

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

Total Manufacturing

Selected Components

Empl

oym

ent D

eclin

e

Computer & Electronic Mfg

Chemical Mfg

Machinery Mfg

Fabricated Metal Mfg

Paper Mfg

Although the Manufacturing industry is projected to continue its decline, the trend is slowing

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1984 1994 2004 2014

726,800

456,000

338,200

278,300

-4.6%Per year -2.9%

Per year-1.9%

Per year

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t

Service-providing industries will approach 4 million jobs by 2014 and continue to drive the labor market

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000

Education

Other Services

Financial Activities

Leisure & Hospitality

Healthcare and Social Assistance

Government

Professional & Business Services

Trade, Transportation & Utilities

2004 Employment Growth 2004-2014

The only service-providing industry projected to lose jobs through 2014 is the Information sector, projected to lose 6,400 jobs, a decline of -0.7% annually

Employment growth within Service-Providing industries will be dominated by these five sectors…

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Healthcare and SocialAssistance *Professional & BusinessServices *Trade, Transportation& UtilitiesLeisure & Hospitality

Financial Activities

Selected Components

Services-Providing

Empl

oym

ent C

hang

e

* Healthcare and Professional & Business Services will each add more than 100,000 jobs from 2004 to 2014.

STATEWIDE OCCUPATIONAL

HIGHLIGHTS

9.5% Employment Growth: 2004-2014

149,540 Average Annual Job Openings, 2004-2014

More than Two-thirds of these Job Openings will be due to “Replacement” demand

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Mgmt., Bus., Fin.

Professional

Service

Sales

Office/Admin Support

Construction

Install/Repair

Production

Trans./Mat. Moving

Sales

Trans./Mat. Moving

Office/Admin Support

Construction

Install/Repair

Production

Service

PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATE BY MAJOR

OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORY

EMPLOYMENT SHARE IN 2014 BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL

GROUP

Mgmt., Bus., Fin.

Occupations with higher educational and training requirements are projected to grow twice as fast as those with lower requirements

7.2

9.4

14.6

0 5 10 15 20

Total LowRequirements

TotalModerate

Requirements

Total HighRequirements

8.9

3.9

8.4

6.2

14.5

20.0

13.7

12.0

15.9

17.6

14.0

0 5 10 15 20 25

Short-Term OTJ Training

Moderate-Term OTJ Training

Long-Term OTJ Training

Work exp. in a related Occ.

Postsecondary Voc. Training

Associate’s Degree

Bachelor’s Degree

Work exp. + Bachelor’s or higher

Master’s Degree

Doctoral Degree

First Professional Degree

Percent Growth, 2004-2014 Percent Growth, 2004-2014

NEW JERSEY REGIONAL AND COUNTY DATA

Northern Region

BERGEN

ESSEX

HUDSON

MORRIS

PASSAIC

UNION

- Generally, these counties have large employment but grow at a slower rate

- Combined, this region accounts for over 47% of all NJ employment

- Projected to have roughly 70,000 average annual job openings, more than double any other region

- Over 50% of State’s employment in Manufacturing located in Northern region

SUSSEX

WARREN

Bergen CountyHighest employment in the State, and only county to eclipse 500,000 jobs by 2014

Large (over 14% of State), but slow-growing Retail and Wholesale Trade sectors

~ Continental Airlines Arena

~ Giants Stadium

Healthcare and Social Assistance industry is and willremain the largest sector, adding more than 19,000 jobs

BERGEN COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Bergen

State

Ranks #1 among NJ counties in most projected employment growth and average annual job openings

Professional and Service occupations make up over 70% of employment growth

Second to only Middlesex in employment in Production occupations, with 31,600 in 2004

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.

Total

Professional Occs.

Service Occs.

Sales Occs.

Office/ Admin. Occs.

Construction Occs.

Install./Repair Occs.

Production Occs.

Transportation Occs.

Percent Growth, 2004-2014

Hudson CountyLargest employment within Finance and Insurance industry sector among NJ counties…nearly 15% of all employment in Hudson County

Sharpest projected decline in Manufacturing among NJ counties…projected to lose 30.7% of Manufacturing jobs by 2014, a drop of 4,150 jobs

Trade, Transportation and Utilities account for one in every four jobs in Hudson

HUDSON COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Hudson

State

Nearly one in every four jobs found within Office and Administrative Support group, the highest concentration in the State

Only Management, Business, and Financial and Professional occupations projected to outpace growth of State

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.

Total

Professional Occs.

Service Occs.

Sales Occs.

Office/ Admin. Occs.

Construction Occs.

Install./Repair Occs.

Production Occs.

Transportation Occs.

Percent Growth, 2004-2014

Morris CountyFastest projected annual growth rate in the Northern region at 1.2%, which ranks 4th in the State

Also ranks 4th in the State in total employment, with 298,350 in 2004

Well-rounded employment basefeatures eight major industries with employment of 20,000 or more

MORRIS COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Morris

State

All Major Occupational groups, except Professional, will grow faster than those of the State

Even still, projected growth in higher paying Management, Business, and Financial, and Professional occupations combined will add almost 17,000 jobs, nearly 44% of all growth

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.

Total

Professional Occs.

Service Occs.

Sales Occs.

Office/ Admin. Occs.

Construction Occs.

Install./Repair Occs.

Production Occs.

Transportation Occs.

Percent Growth, 2004-2014

Central Region

HUNTERDON

MERCER

MIDDLESEX

SOMERSET

- Second largest region is projected to near 1,000,000 in employment by 2014, a growth rate of 10.2%

- In 2004, more than one in five jobs (21.7%) found in Central region

- Three of the four counties in this region will outpace the State’s growth of 10.1%

- Employment in Professional and Business Services will increase by 16.9% while adding 27,000 new jobs

Mercer County

~ New Jersey State House

Fastest growing county in Central region due to strong growth in Healthcare, Construction, and Administrative Support services

Second largest county in Central region, eighth largest inState, with employment of 226,750 in 2004

One in every four jobs found in Government sector

~ “Trenton Makes” Bridge

MERCER COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Mercer

State

Higher paying Management, Business, and Financial, and Professional occupations will account for more than half of 27,000 new jobs

Construction occupations will increase by 16.7%, highest among NJ counties

By 2014, Registered Nurses will add 1,400 jobs to become the occupation with the largest employment in Mercer

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.

Total

Professional Occs.

Service Occs.

Sales Occs.

Office/ Admin. Occs.

Construction Occs.

Install./Repair Occs.

Production Occs.

Transportation Occs.

Percent Growth, 2004-2014

Middlesex County

~ Rutgers Stadium, Piscataway NJ

With employment of 414,450 in 2004, Middlesex is the largest county in the Central region, and second largest in the StateAmong Central region counties, Middlesex will experience the slowest growth at 8.6%, but still add the most jobs with 35,600

Largest Manufacturing sector among NJ counties with employment of 46,300 in 2004

MIDDLESEX COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Middlesex

State

Like Mercer, more than half of job growth to occur within higher paying Management, Business, and Financial, and Professional occupational groups

Most employment in Transportation and Material Moving occupations among NJ counties with 52,400 in 2004

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.

Total

Professional Occs.

Service Occs.

Sales Occs.

Office/ Admin. Occs.

Construction Occs.

Install./Repair Occs.

Production Occs.

Transportation Occs.

Percent Growth, 2004-2014

Coastal Region

MONMOUTH

OCEAN

ATLANTIC

CAPE MAY

- Fastest growing region will add nearly 70,000 by 2014, an increase of 11.2%

- 35.1% of State’s employment within Accommodation and Food Services industry in these four counties…nearly 16.0% of region’s total employment

- Another 14.6% of region’s total employment in Retail Trade industry…compared to 11.7% statewide

Monmouth County

~ Southside Johnny & “The Boss” at the Stone Pony

Monmouth is projected to grow by 9.4% and will add 25,000 jobs by 2014 to remain the largest county in the Coastal region

High concentration of employment in Retail Trade industry,nearly 15.0% in 2004

Second largest county in Construction employment with 15,350 in 2004, behind only Bergen

MONMOUTH COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Monmouth

State

Professional occupations will grow by 11.1%, second slowest among NJ counties

Service occupations will add 9,300 new jobs, or growth of 15.1%

Installation, Maintenance and Repair occupations will add 1,250 jobs, second most among NJ counties

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.

Total

Professional Occs.

Service Occs.

Sales Occs.

Office/ Admin. Occs.

Construction Occs.

Install./Repair Occs.

Production Occs.

Transportation Occs.

Percent Growth, 2004-2014

Ocean CountyWith total growth of 15.1%, Ocean is projected to be the fastest growing county in the Coastal region and second fastest in the State

Healthcare and Social Assistance is and will remain the county’s largest industry, accounting for one in every five jobs by 2014

Also, Healthcare industry will add 8,850 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.8%, and nearly 40% of all growth

OCEAN COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Ocean

State

All major occupational groups are projected to outpace the growth rates of the State

Service occupations will increase by 23.6%, second most among NJ counties

Transportation and Material Moving occupations will increase by 13.2%, the highest among NJ counties

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.

Total

Professional Occs.

Service Occs.

Sales Occs.

Office/ Admin. Occs.

Construction Occs.

Install./Repair Occs.

Production Occs.

Transportation Occs.

Percent Growth, 2004-2014

Atlantic CountyAccommodation and Food Services industry (including Casinos) is county’s largest, over 37% of all employment in 2004

Healthcare and Social Assistance sector will add the most new jobs with 4,550 by 2014, an annual rate of 2.6%

Very small share of Manufacturing industry, less than 3% of total employment in Atlantic

~ Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa

~ Harrah’s Atlantic City

ATLANTIC COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Atlantic

State

Professional occupations will add 4,650 new jobs, or growth of 19.8%, highest among NJ counties

Service occupations will add another 5,650 jobs despite lowest growth rate among NJ counties (9.6%)

Together, they account for nearly 70% of all growth

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.

Total

Professional Occs.

Service Occs.

Sales Occs.

Office/ Admin. Occs.

Construction Occs.

Install./Repair Occs.

Production Occs.

Transportation Occs.

Percent Growth, 2004-2014

Southern Region

BURLINGTON

CAMDEN

GLOUCESTER

CUMBERLAND

SALEM

- Second fastest growing region is projected to add 66,500 jobs through 2014, an increase of 10.8%

- Employment share in Manufacturing ranks #1 among NJ’s four regions at 9.7% of total employment

- Healthcare and Social Assistance industry alone will add 21,250 new jobs, nearly a third of all growth

Camden County

~ Campbell’s Field w/ Ben Franklin Bridge

Largest county in Southern region, with employment of 219,900 in 2004, is projected to add 19,850 by 2014

Government, Healthcare and Social Assistance, and Retail Trade, Camden’s three largest industries, account

for 43% of total employment

Healthcare and Social Assistance industry will

add 7,700 new jobs, nearly double any other industry

CAMDEN COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Camden

State

All major occupational groups, except Production, will grow at a slower rate than the State

More than 70% of all growth through 2014 will occur within Professional and Service occupations

Registered Nurses, the #1 occupation in 2004, will add 1,650 new jobs, by far the most of any occupation

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.

Total

Professional Occs.

Service Occs.

Sales Occs.

Office/ Admin. Occs.

Construction Occs.

Install./Repair Occs.

Production Occs.

Transportation Occs.

Percent Growth, 2004-2014

Gloucester County

~ Rowan University Prof

Fastest growing county in Southern region, and third fastest in the State at 13.7%, will add 14,250 new jobs by 2014

One in every four new jobs will be found in Healthcare and Social Assistance, which will grow by 2.9% annually

Retail Trade will remain Gloucester’s largest private sector industry, adding 1,850 new jobs to reach employment of 18,650 by 2014

GLOUCESTER COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Gloucester

State

All major occupational groups will outpace the growth of the State

Office and Administrative Support occupations will grow by 6.9%, highest among NJ counties

Healthcare Practitioner and Healthcare Support occupations together will add 1,900 jobs, an increase of 33.0%

Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.

Total

Professional Occs.

Service Occs.

Sales Occs.

Office/ Admin. Occs.

Construction Occs.

Install./Repair Occs.

Production Occs.

Transportation Occs.

Percent Growth, 2004-2014

Key Points Healthcare and Social Assistance industry will

continue to boom…fastest growing industry in 7 of 21 counties

Higher-paying Management, Business, and Financial and Professional occupational groups are projected to account for nearly 45% of total growth

Employment in Manufacturing will continue to decline, but at a much slower rate than the past two decades

Questions or Comments?

CALL

E-MAIL

609-777-3635-or-

Jason.Timian@dol.state.nj.us

Visit our Web site:

www.nj.gov/labor/lra