New energy and climate change: The IEA perspective · Reshape investment and accelerate innovation...
Transcript of New energy and climate change: The IEA perspective · Reshape investment and accelerate innovation...
© OECD/IEA 2014© OECD/IEA 2014
New energy and climate change: The IEA perspective
Didier HoussinDirector, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology Directorate
UNESCOParis, 19 March 2015
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The 3 ‘E’s of Sound Energy Policy
Energy security Economic growth Environmental sustainability
And a fourth ‘E’ Engagement worldwide
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Carbon Intensity of supply is stuck
The political will to make meaningful progress at a global scale has yet to be demonstrated
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A transformation is needed…
..and we have the tools to develop a strategy and be proactive
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Investment in our future pays off…
…and it is cost effective to make the transition
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We are not on track
Renewable power
Smart grids
Gas‐fired power
Nuclear power
Coal‐fired power
Carbon capture and storage
Industry
Biofuels
Buildings
Transport
Electric and Hybrid electric vehicles
Co‐generation and district heating and cooling
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Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 45% from 2013 to 2020
Strong momentum for renewable electricity
Global renewable electricity production, historical and projected
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 5005 0005 5006 0006 5007 0007 500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TWh
Hydropower Bioenergy Onshore windOffshore wind Solar PV GeothermalSTE/CSP Ocean % total generation (right axis)
Historical data and estimates Forecast
Natural gas 2013Nuclear 2013
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60 $/MWh
Increasing examples ofcost competitive wind and PV
Transition to new cost competitive era for renewables where good resource and appropriate policy and regulatory framework are in place
Onshore wind
SA76 $/MWh
US48 $/MWh
China80 - 100 $/MWh
Brazil54 $/MWh
Turkey73 $/MWh
Germany67-100 $/MWh
Ireland69
$/MWh
Australia65 $/MWh
India88 $/MWh
Chile89 $/MWh85 $/MWh
US~75 $/MWh
Utility PV
SA76 $/MWh
Brazil81 $/MWh
Dubai60
$/MWh
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Electricity dominates the energy system
The 2DS pathway disconnects primary energy usedin generation from emissions
20112050 2DS
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Decarbonize the Power Sector
Unabated coal use in electricity generationis incompatible with 2DS objectives
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Electricity Generation: a share reversal
Generation today:• Fossil fuels: 68%• Renewables: 20%
Generation 2DS 2050: Renewables: 65% Fossil fuels: 20%
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Understanding the regional context in the 2DS
Differences in growth of electricity demand and sectoraldistribution require targeted systems development plans
All regions show high growth in VRE deployment
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Energy poverty remains widespread
24
3
68
695
818
446
605
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
China
India
Rest ofdeveloping Asia
306
306
599
Million people without electricity
Million people without clean cooking facilities
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Number of people without modern energy access by selected region, 2011
Nearly 1.3 billion people without electricity and 2.6 billion without clean cooking facilities
199
Middle East
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Sub‐Saharan Africa : rich in resources…
In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil and gas discoveries were in sub‐Saharan Africa;the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydropower and solar
Source: World Energy Outlook Special Report: Africa Energy Outlook, 2014
Hydro
WindOil
Oil
Oil
OilGas
Gas
Oil
Coal
Gas
Fossil fuels
Solar
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In sub‐Saharan Africa, 620 million people – two‐thirds of the population – live without electricity. Only a handful of countries have electrification rates above 50%
Less than 50%More than 50%
Share of population withaccess to electricity:
… but poor in supply
Source: World Energy Outlook Special Report: Africa Energy Outlook, 2014
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Seize the benefits of immediate action to bend the global emissions curve
Focus on electricity decarbonisation
Reshape investment and accelerate innovation now in low‐carbon technologies
Mobilise non‐climate goals to promote energy sector decarbonisation
Strengthen the resilience of the energy sector to climate change
IEA messages for COP 20 in Lima
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Short‐term actions, led by energy efficiency, can keep the 2oC goal within reach.
Seize the benefits of immediate action to bend the global emissions curve
GDP‐neutral set of pre‐2020 actions
• Heating and cooling in buildings
• Appliances and lighting
• Industrial motors
• Vehicle fuel economy standards
Source: World Energy Outlook Special Report: Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map, 2013
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ETP 2015: Mobilising Innovation to Accelerate Climate Action
• Innovation as an engine for energy system transformation
• Mainstreaming variable renewables in power systems and markets
• CCS: Building on early opportunities• Global innovation for more sustainable industry
• Low‐carbon innovation in emerging economies
• Energy technology innovation in China
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Understanding innovation
Innovation is iterative, interactive and involves a range ofstakeholders from research – to deployment
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Systems thinking and integration
Today’s energy system paradigm is based on a unidirectional energy delivery philosophy
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Systems thinking and integration
Today’s energy system paradigm is based on a unidirectional energy delivery philosophy
A sustainable electricity system is a smarter, multidirectional and integrated energy system that requires long‐term planning for services delivery
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Thank you