New base 749 special 16 december 2015

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 16 December 2015 - Issue No. 749 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Abu Dhabi utility ADWEA seeks solar project partner The National + NewBase Abu Dhabi’s main utility group is seeking bids for the company’s first major solar project. The Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority (Adwea) has announced a tender for a 350-megawatt solar photovoltaic (PV) project to be built in Sweihan, about 120 kilometres east of the capital. Although the emirate has 110MW of solar power, thanks to Masdar, this would be the first such project carried out by Adwea. The selected developer would own up to 40 per cent of a special- purpose vehicle, with Adwea taking the remaining equity, according to the tender announcement. “Adwea did dip a toe in the solar market by co-investing with Masdar in a 2.3MW PV portfolio in Abu Dhabi in 2011,” said Jenny Chase, manager of Solar Insight at Bloomberg New Energy Finance “However, the scale-up to 350MW is probably due to low prices being bid in solar tenders around the region. “At these prices, building solar seems like a sensible energy diversification strategy and not a painful financial sacrifice.” The facility, which would produce enough electricity to power more than 50,000 homes, would be structured as an independent power project with a power purchase agreement. Adwea will “pay only for the net electrical energy supplied by the plant”, the tender announcement said. The expansion into solar could point to the fact that gas is in short supply while the tumbling price of oil squeezes regional budgets, according to Gus Schellekens, a partner at the clean energy division of the consultancy EY.

Transcript of New base 749 special 16 december 2015

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NewBase 16 December 2015 - Issue No. 749 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

Abu Dhabi utility ADWEA seeks solar project partner

The National + NewBase

Abu Dhabi’s main utility group is seeking bids for the company’s first major solar project. The Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority (Adwea) has announced a tender for a 350-megawatt solar photovoltaic (PV) project to be built in Sweihan, about 120 kilometres east of the capital. Although the emirate has 110MW of solar power, thanks to Masdar, this would be the first such project carried out by Adwea. The selected developer would own up to 40 per cent of a special-purpose vehicle, with Adwea taking the remaining equity, according to the tender announcement.

“Adwea did dip a toe in the solar market by co-investing with Masdar in a 2.3MW PV portfolio in Abu Dhabi in 2011,” said Jenny Chase, manager of Solar Insight at Bloomberg New Energy Finance “However, the scale-up to 350MW is probably due to low prices being bid in solar tenders around the region. “At these prices, building solar seems like a sensible energy diversification strategy and not a painful financial sacrifice.” The facility, which would produce enough electricity to power more than 50,000 homes, would be structured as an independent power project with a power purchase agreement. Adwea will “pay only for the net electrical energy supplied by the plant”, the tender announcement said. The expansion into solar could point to the fact that gas is in short supply while the tumbling price of oil squeezes regional budgets, according to Gus Schellekens, a partner at the clean energy division of the consultancy EY.

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“The number of countries in the region using gas to support enhanced oil recovery makes less economic sense,” he said. And economics plays a major role as the oil glut has pushed the price of Brent crude down below US$40 a barrel, forcing many companies – including the national oil firms – to cut costs.

The UAE currently imports and exports liquefied natural gas and shares international gas pipelines with Qatar and Oman. Abu Dhabi is committed to producing 7 per cent of its total power from renewable energy sources by 2020, and the Sweihan project will be the first under the initiative.

Project

Area

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Saudi Arabia Spends Billions to Get Asia Hooked on Its Oil Bloomberg - Javier Blas

At the heart of Korea’s Onsan Refinery lies a street called “A.I. Naimi Road,” an homage to Saudi Arabia’s oil minister. The reason: state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. holds a 65 percent stake in the complex.

Taking a controlling interest last year in South Korea’s third-largest refinery highlights the shifting dynamics of the oil business. With crude prices down by more than half in the past two years, the Saudis and other oil-rich countries are fighting to lock in customers. Asia, which now accounts for 70 percent of Saudi oil exports, is the primary battleground.

For Saudi Aramco, as the company is widely known, that means purchasing stakes in refineries, with contracts guaranteeing most of the oil will come from the kingdom. Aramco has invested in three processing facilities in Asia. As Iran prepares to boost its own exports, the Saudis are on the cusp of a dramatic increase in its commitment to the region, eyeing billions of dollars of projects in countries from Indonesia to Vietnam.

Owning refineries in Asia is “part of a long-term strategy to consolidate” the Saudi market share in a key region, said Mustafa Ansari, an analyst at the Arab Petroleum Investment Corp., a state-controlled development bank in Dammam, the city at the heart of Saudi oil country.

The Saudis pursued a similar path in the U.S. three decades ago to lock in sales as crude prices tumbled, buying into three oil-processing facilities in Texas and Louisiana since 1988. The strategy worked: Motiva Enterprises LLC, the U.S. refiner half-owned by Aramco, imported 65

Onsan refinery plant in Ulsan

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million barrels of Saudi oil in the first eight months of 2015 -- more than triple what ExxonMobil Corp. got from the kingdom in that time, U.S. government data show. Key Moment

The push into Asia comes at a pivotal moment in Saudi Arabia. With oil revenue falling, the kingdom is tightening its belt just as a new king ventures away from the kingdom’s traditionally conservative diplomacy. The International Monetary Fund predicts a budget deficit exceeding 20 percent of economic output this year.

At Aramco, meanwhile, recently appointed Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser is overseeing a plan to make the world’s biggest oil company a more integrated operation. Long focused on producing crude, Aramco plans to almost double its refining capacity by 2025 to 10 million barrels a day, equivalent to its current output of oil. That would put Aramco ahead of ExxonMobil as the world’s largest refiner. In Vietnam

Other oil-producing countries are pursuing a similar strategy. Kuwait is scheduled to open a refinery in Vietnam that is contracted to get more than 90 percent of its crude from the emirate. Oman owns half of a refinery in India and a smaller stake in a petrochemical plant in China. Iran and Qatar have floated the idea of investing in processing facilities in the region.

The Saudis, though, have a big lead. In 2004, Aramco bought 15 per cent of a Japanese refinery with a capacity of 395,000 barrels a day, and in 2007 it paid $1.3 billion for a quarter of a refinery in Quanzhou, China, with a capacity of 240,000 barrels. Aramco originally invested in the Korean facility (with a capacity of 670,000 barrels daily) in 1991, and last year paid another $2 billion to increase its stake from 35 percent.

The grand prize -- and the biggest headache -- is China. The Saudis started to ship oil to China in the late 1990s and had little competition there in the following decade. But the market is getting crowded, with Russia this year topping the Saudis as China’s biggest supplier of crude, and Iraq and Angola making inroads.

Aramco has appointed Nabil al-Nuaim, a former director of its venture in Japan, to head its Asia office in Beijing. Al-Naimi,

the oil minister, last year promoted Mohammed al-Madi, a Mandarin speaker with a PhD from the China University of Petroleum who once ran the Asia business, as his No. 2 at Opec meetings. China Market

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Since 2011, Aramco has been talking to China National Petroleum Corp. about a facility with a capacity of 260,000 barrels a day in Yunnan province, a mountainous region that borders Vietnam and Laos. Though the two sides agreed in 2011 that the Saudis would control 40 percent of the venture, there’s been little visible progress.

“The biggest problem for Saudi Aramco is that fuel markets in several key Asian countries aren’t liberalized,” said Bassam Fattouth, director of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies. Officials often require refiners to sell gasoline and other fuels at subsidized prices -- or even at a loss -- he said.

Though China has taken steps to reduce fuel subsidies, it’s still tough to make a profit selling gasoline and diesel there.

“We would like to multiply our investments in China,” particularly in refining, Aramco Chairman Khalid al-Falih said in Beijing in March. “While recent reforms will help, expanding our presence in China requires more available investment opportunities” -- meaning a more open market.

Aramco has been more successful in Indonesia. The Saudis have a preliminary agreement to invest in a refinery with a capacity of 370,000 barrels a day in central Java, and they plan to upgrade two other facilities with Pertamina, the Indonesian state-controlled oil company.

Aramco will own half of the Java plant, which will primarily use Saudi crude, according to Indonesia Energy Minister Sudirman Said, who met with Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, chairman of the council that oversees Aramco, during a visit to Riyadh last month.

“We’re optimistic,” the minister said, “that we will start our cooperation with our first refinery and expand our cooperation.”

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Qatar to remain most dynamic economy By The Peninsula - Satish Kanady

Qatar’s growth is forecast to average 5.1 percent during 2015-17, boosted by output against the gas sector and public investment. The latter will drive average non-hydrocarbon growth of 9.1 percent year-on-year during the period.

Despite lower oil prices, high public investment in the country’s development plan and gas output gains linked to the launch of the Barzan production facility should see Qatar’s economic performance remain relatively strong through 2016-17, NBK’s latest ‘Mena Economic Outlook’ noted. Qatar’s real GDP is forecast to grow by 5.4 percent in 2016 and 5.1 percent in 2017, from an expected increase of 4.9 percent in 2015. This figure, while down from

the 9.2 percent annual average witnessed during 2010-2014, still puts Qatar among the most dynamic economies in the GCC. According to NBK’s research note, the non-hydrocarbon sector remains the main determinant of Qatar’s economic growth. Underpinned by government spending, output is forecast to expand by 9.1 percent year-on-year on average between 2015 and 2017. Financial services, construction and trade and hospitality will continue to drive Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon sector. Economic expansion also being propelled by burgeoning population growth of 8.8 percent year-on-year, which is helping to boost domestic consumption. However, the country’s headline inflation is projected to rise gradually over the next two years, from an expected 1.7 percent in 2015 to 3.0 percent in 2017. Rising rental costs and slowly rebounding global food and commodity prices are likely to be the predominant inflationary impulses. While rental inflation slowed to 1.8 percent year-on-year in October, rapid population growth owing to the influx of expatriate workers is expected to continue exerting pressure on the country’s limited residential housing stock. The price of land and buildings, as measured by the real estate price index (REPI), was up 18.2 percent y-o-y last September, although it has been moderating over the last year. A strengthening US dollar to which Qatari riyal is pegged has helped restrain imported inflation.

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Pakistan: Gunvar, Shell to Supply LNG to Pakistan

Gunvor and Royal Dutch Shell have won short term contracts to supply LNG to Pakistan.

The Express Tribune newspaper reported Tuesday the two firms got the contracts after financial bids offered in response to two tenders floated by Pakistan State Oil (PSO) were opened. Eight companies participated in the tenders.

This development comes amid a delay in signing of a long term deal between Pakistan and Qatar. Both companies will supply 120 LNG cargoes over the next five years, the newspaper reported.

“Gunvor will supply 60 cargoes at 13.37 percent of Brent crude price and Shell will also supply the same 60 cargoes at 13.80 percent of Brent crude price,” an official told The Express Tribune.

Pakistan is facing severe energy crisis and looking at various sources to buy gas. The country produces four billion cubic feet of natural gas per day (bcfd) against the demand for over six bcfd.

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Indonesia: ExxonMobil starts Banyu Urip central processing facility Source: ExxonMobil

• Production increases to more than 130,000 barrels of oil per day

• Expected to produce 450 million barrels of oil over its lifetime

• Banyu Urip to represent approx. 20 percent of Indonesia’s 2016 oil production target

ExxonMobil announced Monday the successful and safe startup of the onshore central processing facility at the Banyu Urip field in Indonesia, helping increase production to more than 130,000 barrels of oil per day. With the central processing facility now online, production will continue to increase in the coming months. Once full field production is reached, Banyu Urip will represent approx. 20 percent of Indonesia’s 2016 oil production target.

'This milestone demonstrates ExxonMobil’s project management expertise and illustrates the strong partnerships we share with our Indonesia co-venturers and contractors, the government, and the community,' said Neil W. Duffin, president of ExxonMobil Development Company. 'Our top priority has always been the safe and cost-effective delivery of a reliable project that would result in decades of oil production for Indonesia.'

Banyu Urip is expected to produce 450 million barrels of oil over its lifetime. The project consists of 45 wells producing from three well pads, an onshore central processing facility, a 60-mile onshore and offshore pipeline and a floating storage and offloading vessel and tanker loading facilities in the Java Sea. ExxonMobil, partnering with PT. Pertamina EP Cepu and the Cepu

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Block Cooperation Body, commenced production from Banyu Urip in late 2008, and output has increased as additional facilities were brought online in 2014 and 2015.

'Banyu Urip is helping drive economic growth in Indonesia and has led to the training and employment of thousands of Indonesians,' Duffin said.

Banyu Urip has been successfully developed by five Indonesia-led contractor consortiums responsible for engineering, procurement and construction. Together they employed more than 17,000 Indonesian workers at peak levels, representing 95 percent of the project’s overall workforce, and utilized more than 460 Indonesia subcontractors.

ExxonMobil Cepu, project operator, has a 45 percent interest in Banyu Urip, Pertamina EP Cepu holds 45 percent and four local government entities under the Cepu Block Cooperation Body – PT. Blora Patra Hulu, PT. Petrogas Jatim Utama Cendana, PT. Asri Darma Sejahtera, and PT. Sarana Patra Hulu Cepu – hold the remaining 10 percent.

ExxonMobil expects to increase its global production volumes in 2015 to 4.1 million oil-equivalent barrels per day. The volume increase is supported by the ramp up of projects completed in 2014 and the startup of major developments in 2015.

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Kenya: Tullow Gains After Successful Well Boosts Oil Potential Bloomberg - Angelina Rascouet

Tullow Oil Plc gained after a successful well increased the potential size of oil resources the Africa-focused explorer has discovered in Kenya.

The Etom-2 well in northern Kenya encountered 102 meters (335 feet) of net oil pay in two columns, Tullow said in a statement Tuesday. This could increase the potential of the existing Etom discovery, Lionel Therond, an analyst at Standard Bank Group Ltd., said by e-mail. Shares of the company rose as much as 7.7 percent.

Tullow has found about 2.3 billion barrels of resources in East Africa, with discoveries in Kenya and Uganda, according to its website. The oil remains undeveloped as the London-based company and its partners debate the route of an export pipeline amid a slump in the price of crude.

“We expect management to speak more confidently about the potential for the basin to achieve the 1 billion-barrel potential it has previously highlighted,” Barclays Plc analysts led by James Hosie wrote in a note. “Although the oil price is likely to continue dominating near-term investor sentiment, exploration success onshore Kenya should offer a ray of positivity.”

Tullow, which has a 50 percent stake in the license block containing the Etom discovery, added 6.4 percent to 161.8 pence at 8:45 a.m. in London. That pared the stock’s loss this year to 61 percent.

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NewBase 16 December - 2015 Khaled Al Awadi

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Crude prices dip after recent gains as Fed decision looms Reuters + NewBase

Crude oil fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, snapping gains that pulled prices back from testing 11-year lows, as investors awaited the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates are likely to be raised.

West Texas Intermediate fell 55 cents to $36.91 a barrel by 0219 GMT after rising more than $1 on Tuesday. It fell to $34.53 on Monday, the lowest since it financial crisis bottom of $32.40, before ending the day higher.

Brent LCOc1 was down 33 cents at $38.12. The contract settled up 53 cents at $38.45 a barrel on Tuesday, closing higher for the first in eight days. On Monday, the global oil benchmark came within 14 cents of a December 2008 bottom of $36.20, unleashing a surge of buying support.

"The drop in prices is not surprising after the rally the previous session as the market girds itself for the decision on rates and official figures on inventory levels in the U.S., said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.

"There haven't been any great shifts in the fundamentals and clearly ahead of, not only the Fed rate decision, but the inventory read that we will receive, it wouldn't surprise me if we maintain a holding pattern until then," he said.

Oil price special

coverage

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The Federal Reserve on Tuesday started a two-day meeting where it is expected to raise rates eight years after a devastating recession opened an era of loose U.S. monetary policy.

A rise in rates is typically negative for oil prices because a hike is likely to prop up the greenback, making crude contracts more expensive as they are denominated in dollars.

Markets are already prepared for a 25 basis point increase but will be closely watching the Fed's policy statement for indications of where rates will go next year.

In a further sign of oversupply in the market, data released late on Tuesday by the industry group, American Petroleum Institute, showed a surprise build of 2.3 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles last week.

A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast a 1.4 million-barrel draw instead. Official inventory data is due on Wednesday from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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Moody's slashes oil forecast for 2016 by $10 a barrel The Guardian

Moody’s has cut its oil price forecast for next year by $10 a barrel due to continued high levels of supply that may be heightened by the lifting of sanctions against Iran.

The credit rating agency slashed its price assumption for Brent crude, the international benchmark, to $43 a barrel from $53. For West Texas intermediate crude, the North American benchmark, it cut the forecast to $40 a barrel from $48.

Global oil demand will rise by about 1.3m barrels a day next year, higher than the previous estimate by Moody’s, as consumption increases in the US, China and Russia, the agency forecast.

But it added that increases in Opec production had negated growing demand, leading to a rapid buildup of oil stocks and that the trend would continue next year with only a limited pickup in prices later. The US’s decision to waive sanctions against Iran if conditions are met could add to global supply and oil will increase by just $5 a

barrel in each of 2017 and 2018, Moody’s said.

Terry Marshall, a senior vice-president at Moody’s, said: “Increasing consumption will not match the increase in supply. It will take time for these large global inventories to unwind, and combined with the possibility of new supply coming online from Iran, we expect oil prices to remain lower for a longer period than previously anticipated.”

Moody’s cut its medium-term forecast for Brent crude to $63 a barrel by 2020, a little more than half the $115 reached in summer 2014. It revised its forecasts after oil prices fell below $40 a barrel this month, after Opec stuck by its strategy of pumping more oil to hold on to its share of the market and, it hopes, weaken smaller US producers.

Marshall said: “Opec oil producers continue to produce without restraint as they compete for market share, exacerbating the currently saturated markets. Russia has also greatly increased production, and the possibility that sanctions will be lifted on Iran in 2016 could flood the market with even more supply.”

The rating agency’s job is to judge how risky it is to lend to companies and countries. It uses its oil price forecasts to assess the creditworthiness of companies in sectors affected by oil prices.

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Russia plans $40 a barrel oil for next seven years as Saudi showdown intensifies. The Telegraph -Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Russia is battening down the hatches for a Biblical collapse in oil revenues, warning that crude prices could stay as low as $40 a barrel for another seven years.

Maxim Oreshkin, the deputy finance minister, said the country is drawing up plans based on a price band fluctuating between $40 to $60 as far out as 2022, a scenario that would have devastating implications for Opec.

It would also spell disaster for the North Sea producers, Brazil’s off-shore projects, and heavily indebted Western producers. “We will live in a different reality,” he told a breakfast forum hosted by Russian newspaper Vedomosti.

The cold blast from Moscow came as US crude plunged to $35.56, pummelled by continuing fall-out from the acrimonious Organisaton of Petrol Exporting Countries meeting last week. Record short positions by hedge funds have amplified the effect.

Bank of America said there was now the risk of “full-blown price war” within Opec itself as Saudi Arabia and Iran fight out a bitter strategic rivalry through the oil market.

Brent crude fell to $37.41, even though demand is growing briskly. It is the lowest since the depths of the Lehman crisis in early 2009. But this time it is a 'positive supply shock', and therefore beneficial for the world economy as a whole.

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The International Energy Agency said in its monthly market report that Opec has stopped operating as a cartel and is “pumping at will”, aiming to drive out rivals at whatever cost to its own members. Opec revenues will fall to $400bn (£263bn) this year if current prices persist, down from $1.2 trillion in 2012. This is a massive shift in global wealth.

The IEA said global oil stocks were already at nose-bleed levels of 2,971m barrels, and were likely to increase by another 300m over the next six months as “free-wheeling Opec policy” floods the market.

The watchdog played down fears that the world was running out of sites to store the glut, citing 230m barrels of new storage coming on stream. Inventories in the US are still only at 70pc capacity. But this could change once Iranian crude comes on stream later next year.

Russia’s $40 warning is the latest escalation in a game of strategic brinkmanship between the Kremlin and Saudi Arabia, already at daggers drawn over Syria.

The Russian contingency plans convey a clear message to Riyadh and to Opec’s high command that the country can withstand very low oil prices indefinitely, thanks to a floating rouble that protects the internal budget.

Saudi Arabia is trapped by a fixed exchange peg, forcing it to bleed foreign reserves to cover a budget deficit running at 20pc of GDP.

Russia claims to have the strategic depth to sit out a long siege. It is pursuing an import-substitution policy to revive its industrial and engineering core. It can ultimately feed itself. The Gulf Opec states are one-trick ponies by comparison.

The deputy premier, Arkady Dvorkovich, told The Telegraph in September that Opec will be forced to change tack. “At some point it is likely that they are going to have to change policy. They can last a few months, to a couple of years," he said.

Kremlin officials suspect that the aim of Saudi policy is to force Russia to the negotiating table, compelling it join Opec in a super-cartel controlling half the world’s production.

Abdallah Salem el-Badri, Opec’s chief, came close to admitting this last week, saying the cartel is no longer big enough to act alone and will not cut output unless non-Opec producers chip in. “We are looking for negotiations with non-Opec, and trying to reach a collective effort. Everybody is trying to digest how they can do it,” he said

Russia is in effect calling Opec’s bluff, gambling that it has the greater staying power. It cannot easily cut output since its main producers are listed companies, answerable to shareholders. Any arrangement would have to be subtle.

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Mr Dvorkovich gave an oblique answer when asked whether Russia would ever do a deal. "We are not going to cut supply artificially. Oil companies will act on their own. They will look at market

forces and decide whether to invest more or less. If prices stay low, it is in the nature of oil companies to stabilize production, or even to cut production," he said.

Whether Russia really can withstand the strain for years is an open question. The economy is in deep recession. Output has contracted by 4pc over the last year. Real incomes have fallen by 9pc. The latest gambit may in reality be a negotiating ploy.

Mr Oreshkin said oil prices of $40 would force the government to bleed its reserve fund by 1.5 trillion roubles next year, or 2pc of GDP.

Standard & Poor's says the budget deficit has reached 4.4pc of GDP, including local government shortfalls. A further $40bn is needed to bail out the banking system.

“They just don’t have the money. The deficit is heading for 5pc of GDP,” said Lubomir Mitov from Unicredit. “The biggest danger is that the reserve fund will be exhausted by the end of 2016. They will then have to monetise the deficit or cut real spending by another 10pc. They can’t cut defence so that leaves social welfare,” he said.

Bond markets in Russia are shallow. The country cannot hope to borrow abroad on any scale as long as it is under Western sanctions. Saudi Arabia’s leaders are fully aware of the Kremlin’s painful predicament. They appear certain that they can outlast Russia in a long duel. By the time we find out which of these two petro-giants is stronger, both may be on their knees.

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NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 16 Dec.. 2015

Cramer: Only thing that can change oil prices now

Mad Money host Jim Cramer drills down on why the market is influenced heavily by the price of oil, and the one thing that needs to happen to break this linkage . Oil is once again running the

show for the market, even if it shouldn't be. That is why Jim Cramer took the opportunity to watch just how much it controls stocks early on Monday morning, and he was shocked at how insanely powerful it was. When Cramer woke up in the morning oil was flat, which sent the S&P 500 futures skyrocketing. When oil broke down $1, that prompted the futures to take a nosedive. Oil roared back, and then the futures rebounded. But does its weight really make any sense?

When Cramer drilled down, he found that only 16 states derive some income from oil and gas. Of those, only nine are truly impacted by lower oil prices that could be threatening. The real issue with lower oil prices is all of the debt that the oil and gas companies have and what happens if they default. "That is a real issue. Definitely. There is maybe as much as $300 billion in debt in this industry. That could be a big hit," the "Mad Money" host said. "I don't make the rules. I just try to help you understand them, even if they are as wrong-headed and stupid as I have ever seen them." -Jim Cramer But when he put it into perspective, the housing collapse that almost brought down the nation carried bad debt of 20 times that of the oil industry. That means that if all $300 billion in debt went bad, it would still only be a tiny fraction of the $6 trillion in housing related debt that went bad during the Great Recession. And it almost brought down every bank in the country. So while $300 billion is a big number, it is not one that could sink any bank. However, $100 billion in defaults is enough to sink the funds that have invested a lot of money into the distressed debt of oil and gas companies, which is why investors have been so fixated on mutual funds. Regardless of the fact that oil should not be controlling S&P futures, the fact is that the insanity of the linkage can drive stocks crazy. Does it really make sense that a stock like Alphabet went to $762 from $736 just because oil reversed its downward trajectory? "Of course not. That is why I keep saying we are in crazy town. Until this linkage is snapped, we are only going to be able to make money on the long side if something nasty happens to the supply of oil. The demand can't take us back up," Cramer said. One day Cramer thinks the market will escape crazy town, and it will be monumental. It just hasn't happened yet. "That's just how it is. I don't make the rules. I just try to help you understand them, even if they are as wrong-headed and stupid as I have ever seen them," Cramer said.

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &

regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19