Netflix vs HBO v3 (2 17-14)

44
The Present and Future of Pay-TV and SVOD Chris Van Noy February 17 th , 2014 Vs.

Transcript of Netflix vs HBO v3 (2 17-14)

Page 1: Netflix vs HBO v3 (2 17-14)

The Present and Future of Pay-TV and SVOD

Chris Van Noy February 17th, 2014

Vs.

Page 2: Netflix vs HBO v3 (2 17-14)

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 2  

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. ”

~ Sun Tzu, The Art of War

“I hate television. I hate it as much as peanuts. But I can't stop eating peanuts.”

~ Orson Welles

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Overview

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 3  

1.  Takeaways 2.  Key Concepts – Lies, Misunderstandings and

other Conventional Wisdom 3.  What is Netflix, HBO – Not the same business but

still compete 4.  Key Comparisons – How they match now 5.  Threats Opportunities 6.  Strategies 7.  Future Predictions/Projections (HBO/Netflix,

Ecosystem)

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Take-Aways •  Netflix surpasses HBO in Revenue in 2014 and Contribution Profit in 2017 but does not

exceed HBO in Profit Margin or Total Subscribers

•  Large threat to Netflix threat that is concerning is the amortization and cost of licensed content. Netflix has to maintain blistering subscription growth (virtuous cycle) to keep ahead of content cost or be swallowed by it.

•  Large threat (also an advantage) to HBO domestic is being tied to MVPDs and their spiral into higher prices, lower subscribers

•  HBO Int’l ARPU is much lower than Netflix Int’l – a competitive advantage as Netflix scales

•  HBO has other significant revenue streams besides subscribers. Content licensing will grow 36% between ’12 – ’16

•  Netflix will start to own content but the content licensing opportunity is not big enough assuming an aggressive int’l rollout for traditional streaming

•  Tipping point for cable vs broadband within 3-4 yrs. More channels (competition) will move to broadband. (HBO GO, ESPN etc.) Look for

•  Main threats are large companies that don’t need to make money on content: Amazon, Google, MVPD+Hulu. Data is a competitive advantage: Amazon, Google could have this advantage.

•  International - Increase in International Middle Class, increase in Fixed BB HH and Mobile BB, Increased market for Netflix, HBO, HBO Go and Content Licensing

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 4  

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Key Concepts #1 HBO does not have 114M subscribers

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 5  

In 2013 HBO has 29.2M Domestic and 57M Paid Subscribers for a Total of 86.1M The popular 114M Subs numbers is HBO and Cinemax combined Domestic and International

#2 Netflix will not, nor ever have ads, sports, pay-per-view movies, news or live content.

Netflix’s mission statement and customer focus is to have great movies and TV shows in one place available anywhere. When a user wants to watch great entertainment Netflix is what they think of

#3 HBO is not only a subscriber business. HBO has healthy revenue streams from content licensing and DVD/Digital sales

#4 HBO will not go digital only in the US any time soon. HBO has a significant cost savings and revenue upside by being tied to the MVPD ecosystem. In addition, Time Warner leverages HBO to get more affiliate fees for their other cable networks HBO may offer HBO Go with a broadband subscription from an MVPD

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What is Netflix and Will Be What it is Not and Won’t Be

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 6  

Netflix Is: •  Wide-ranging selection of TV shows and

movies •  Pure on-demand choosing and viewing with

the highest video quality possible •  Personalized, intuitive, evolving UI on all

internet screens •  Inexpensive, $8/month, unlimited viewing,

Need an ISP (avg. $40/month) •  No commercials, no commitments, no

contracts

Netflix is Not: •  Not: Pay-per-view new movies (i.e. Apple,

Amazon, Google, etc.) •  Not: Ad-supported free content (YouTube, Hulu

etc.) •  Not: Sports, contestant, news, music video,

instructional, or user-gen video •  Not: All movies and TV shows in one place

HBO Is: •  Rotating selection of DVD window movies

and award winning original series •  Linear broadcasting of content with some on-

demand and online options •  Linked to the MVPD ecosystem, for better or

worse •  Not Cheap, $12 - $18/month, 5 channels and

HBO Go, Need an Cable package (avg. $80/mo.)

HBO is Not: •  Not: Pay-per-view new movies (i.e. Apple,

Amazon, Google, etc.) •  Not: Ad-supported free content (YouTube, Hulu

etc.) •  Not: Sports, contestant, news, music video,

instructional, or user-gen video •  Not: All movies and TV shows in one place

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What is HBO and Netflix?

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 7  

TW Publishing TW Networks TW Film & Entertainment

NYSE: TWX

Excavating HBO’s Businesses from Time Warner for a relevant comparison with Netflix

19 businesses

HBO HBO Multiplexes HBO On Demand HBO Go HBO Video HBO License/Distribution HBO Films HBO Miniseries HBO Entertainment HBO Docs HBO International HBO Latin America Cinemax Cinemax Multiplexes Cinemax On Demand Cinemax Latin America HBO Independent Prod PictureHouse Studios Warner Channel E! Latin America

19 businesses

1 Media Conglomerate -> 3 Divisions -> 32 Nets -> 19 HBO Businesses -> 12 HBO Biz

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What is HBO and Netflix?

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 8  

HBO HBO Multiplexes HBO On Demand HBO Go HBO Video HBO License/Distribution HBO Films HBO Miniseries HBO Entertainment HBO Docs HBO International HBO Latin America

vs.

Domestic Streaming International Streaming DVD Rental Netflix Production DVD Sales Netflix Licensing/Distribution (Potential)

Excavating HBO’s Businesses from Time Warner for a relevant comparison with Netflix

HBO HBO Multiplexes HBO On Demand HBO Go HBO Video HBO License/Distribution HBO Films HBO Miniseries HBO Entertainment HBO Docs HBO International HBO Latin America Cinemax Cinemax Multiplexes Cinemax On Demand Cinemax Latin America HBO Independent Prod PictureHouse Studios Warner Channel E! Latin America

19 businesses 12 businesses

1 Media Conglomerate -> 3 Divisions -> 32 Nets -> 19 HBO Businesses -> 12 HBO Biz

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Key Comparisons

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 9  

Key  Business  Drivers    HBO Netflix

Attached to MVPD Ecosystem, Lower costs, Higher Margins, Leverage over pricing

Attached to MVPD Ecosystem, Higher customer cost, declining ecosystem

Not attached to ecosystem, low cost of consumer entry + partnerships

Heavily Exposed to Content Costs Exposed to Content Costs

Large, Serviceable Addressable Market. Domestic and Int’l

Large, well funded competitors that don’t depend on video rev but don’t have domain expertise (excepting HBO)

Early entrant with significant brand equity. CE Devices, platforms and soon ISPs need them

Multiple Revenue Streams and larger, potential Int’l Market

Mature Domestic Market

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Key Comparisons

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 10  

Netflix , HBO Paid Subscribers 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Netflix Domestic 25.5 31.4 37.0 42.1 45.0 Netflix Int'l 6.1 10.5 15.6 25.3 32.4

HBO Domestic 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 HBO Int'l 50.0 57.0 67.4 73.3 78.3

(Millions)

Key Drivers Observations •  HBO Domestic: Declining cable viewership, Subs

•  HBO Int’l: Consolidation of HBO Asia and soon HBO Lat Am, Fast increasing Pay-TV subs result of growing int’l middle class

•  NFLX Dom: Increasing BB HH, Connected TVs/Devices increase, original content, MVPD/CE partnerships

•  NFLX Int’l: Aggressive Int’l rollout: W & E Europe, Asia Pac and Lat Am. China, India, Russia not incl but could be

•  NFLX Dom passes HBO Dom (paid subs) in ’13 •  HBO has more Int’l subs than NFLX but at

a lower APRU ($2.5 vs. $6.28) •  NFLX Dom growth slows after 2016 (due to

price increase) •  HBO has significant Int’l sub growth due recent

consolidation and global growth

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Key Comparisons

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 11  

Cost of Acquisition / Churn Minimization Cost Per User

Netflix 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Domestic New $ 46.9 $ 46.0 $ 47.1 $ 51.3 $ 88.9 Domestic All $ 9.5 $ 8.3 $ 7.1 $ 6.2 $ 5.8 International New $ 47.2 $ 46.1 $ 48.5 $ 27.8 $ 41.0 International All $ 32.9 $ 19.2 $ 15.8 $ 10.7 $ 9.0

HBO Domestic New $ 91.7 $ 119.9 $ 281.8 $1,158.9 N/A Domestic All $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 1.6 International New $ 12.7 $ 15.7 $ 12.4 $ 24.2 $ 29.8 International All $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.9

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Key Comparisons

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 12  

Cost of Acquisition Marketing Cost Per New User

Netflix 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Domestic New $ 46.9 $ 46.0 $ 47.1 $ 51.3 $ 88.9 International New $ 47.2 $ 46.1 $ 48.5 $ 27.8 $ 41.0

HBO Domestic New $ 91.7 $119.9 $281.8 $1,158.9 N/A International New $ 12.7 $ 15.7 $ 12.4 $ 24.2 $ 29.8

Key Drivers Observations •  HBO Domestic: Established service, most value in churn min

•  HBO Int’l: Lat Am consolidation in ‘15

•  NFLX Dom: New, increasing original content, increasing SAM

•  NFLX Dom: increased price in ‘16 increases customer value

•  NFLX Int’l: Aggressive Int’l rollout plan – new markets with some existing brand value

•  HBO Int’l low ARPU causes low acquisition cost

•  NFLX Dom increase due slowing SAM growth / and increased ARPU

•  HBO Dom very since HBO Dom is focused on churn minimization

•  Netflix Int’l fluctuates due to continually entering new markets

HBO’s  marke=ng  spend  focus  isn’t  on  acquiring  new  users.  They  have  a  mature/declining  market  domes=cally.  Their  focus  is  on  “churn  minimiza=on”    (next  slide)  

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Key Comparisons

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 13  

Churn Minimization Marketing Cost Per All Users

Netflix 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Domestic All $9.5 $8.3 $7.1 $6.2 $5.8 International All $32.9 $19.2 $15.8 $10.7 $9.0

HBO Domestic All $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 1.6 International All $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.9

Key Drivers Observations •  HBO: seems that both Dom and Int’l spend

to minimize churn

•  Netflix Dom: Paying less per user as subs reach scale, tech is more mature and original content

•  HBO Int’l low ARPU causes low acquisition cost

•  NFLX: could lower churn min spend reflect confidence in UI, Rec Engine, Original Content, better licensed content etc. ?

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Key Comparisons

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 14  

Cost of Delivery / Operations 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Netflix Domestic Streaming Tech Costs (Minus Delivery) $160.5 $194.1 $221.2 $256.7 $272.7 Streaming Delivery Costs $38.6 $44.3 $57.3 $40.2 $52.0

Total Delivery Costs $199.2 $238.4 $278.5 $296.9 $324.8 Cost Per User $7.34 $7.19 $7.14 $6.69 $6.84

Netflix Int'l Streaming Tech Costs (Minus Delivery) $8.8 $33.3 $44.6 $91.5 $89.0 Streaming Delivery Costs $17.4 $28.1 $45.8 $45.8 $71.0

Total Delivery Costs $26.2 $61.4 $90.3 $137.3 $160.0 Cost Per User $4.28 $5.84 $5.80 $5.43 $4.94

HBO Operational Expense ( - Streaming) $445.6 $496.1 $529.3 $580.9 $603.1 HBO Go Digtal Streaming $1.0 $1.3 $2.9 $4.6 $11.6

Total Operational Expense $446.6 $497.4 $532.2 $585.4 $614.7 Cost Per User $5.64 $5.73 $5.39 $5.55 $5.56

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Key Comparisons

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 15  

Cost of Delivery / Operations

Netflix Domestic Streaming

Netflix Int’l Streaming

HBO

Key Drivers Observations •  HBO: Operations costs increase as efforts to

consolidate HBO Asia and HBO Latin America succeed

•  NFLX Int’l: delivery costs rise even per user as new markets are entered

•  NFLX Dom: Higher investment in UI, User Retention, Streaming tech and platforms as competition increases

•  TDB

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Delivery Costs $199.2 $238.4 $278.5 $296.9 $324.8 Cost Per User $7.34 $7.19 $7.14 $6.69 $6.84

Total Delivery Costs $26.2 $61.4 $90.3 $137.3 $160.0 Cost Per User $4.28 $5.84 $5.80 $5.43 $4.94

Total Operational $446.6 $497.4 $532.2 $585.4 $614.7 Cost Per User $5.64 $5.73 $5.39 $5.55 $5.56

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Netflix, HBO Revenue Streams

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 16  

62.9% 16.2%

20.8%

Domestic Sub

DVD / Digital

Int’l Sub

Content Licensing

Int’l HBO Go

Domestic Sub

Int’l Sub

DVD Rental

HBO Observations ‘13 – ‘16

•  Aggressive Int’l Growth •  Drastic Decline in DVD •  Domestic still Growing

in Rev

Netflix Observations ‘13 – ‘16

•  Content Licensing Growth •  HBO Go Int’l Minimal •  Still Some Juice in

DVD/Digital •  Dom & Int’l Sub Growing in

Rev but Int’l in %

HBO 2013 Rev: $4,373

HBO 2016 Rev: $5,181

Netflix 2016 Rev: $7,150

Netflix 2013 Rev: $4,358

61.9%

30.5%

7.7%

63.9%

4.3%

22.8%

8.2%

0.8%

60.2%

3.5%

26.5%

8.7%

1.2%

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Netflix vs. HBO ARPU, Costs and Profitability

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 17  

2013 2014 2015

Netflix HBO Netflix HBO Netflix HBO

$7.99 $7.67 $7.99 $7.98 $7.99 $8.22

Content Licensing

Original Content

Marketing

Contribution Profit

ARPU / Month

* HBO and Netflix Domestic

As HBO’s domestic business stabilizes it’s only growth is in APRU forced from MVPDs Netflix has increasing costs on multiple fronts but subscriber growth is enough to increase profit margin

22.5%

47.0% 24.6%

40.6% 28.5% 35.9%

10.1%

4.3%

8.5%

9.7%

7.5% 13.4%

9.9%

21.5%

11.8%

22.6%

14.9%

23.6% 57.5%

27.2%

55.0%

27.1% 49.1%

27.1%

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Netflix vs. HBO ARPU, Costs and Profitability

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 18  

16.9%  

47.4%  

22.5%  

47.2%  

24.6%  

44.0%  28.5%  

41.3%   37.7%  29.8%  

11.8%  

4.1%  

10.1%  

4.1%  

8.5%  

6.5%  

7.5%  

8.3%  6.2%   17.1%  

20.7%  

9.9%  

21.5%  

11.8%  

22.5%  

14.9%  

23.5%  

16.0%  26.2%  

71.3%  

27.8%  

57.5%  

27.2%  

55.0%  

27.0%  

49.1%  

26.9%  40.0%  

26.9%  

2012   2013   2014   2015   2016  

NeTlix   HBO   NeTlix   HBO   NeTlix   HBO   NeTlix   HBO   NeTlix   HBO  

$7.99   $7.67   $7.99   $7.98   $7.99   $8.22   $7.99   $8.46   $8.99   $8.72  

Content    Licensing  

Original    Content  

Marke=ng  

Contribu=on    Profit  

ARPU  /  Month  

*  HBO  and  NeTlix              Domes=c  

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Opportunity: International Markets

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 19  

Emerging Markets moving from Commodities Economy to Durables and Services Economies

The world market for entertainment – both Pay-TV (HBO) and SVOD (Netflix and HBOGo) -- is rapidly growing as the gains in average per capita income creates a large, international consumer middle class. In 17 yrs. there will be Three Billion more consumers for video entertainment

Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research

Average income increases from $12.5K to $23K USD

Emerging Market Avg: $12K Emerging Market Avg: $23K

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Netflix International Driving Forces

•  Growing Disposable Entertainment Income in Emerging Markets

•  Broadband (MVPD, Telco) Expansion

•  Higher Functioning, Less Expensive Devices

•  Proven Demand

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 20  

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21 World Map

HBO Global Channels 47  Countries,  Expanding  to  60  Countries  

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 21  

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22 World Map

HBO Global

HBO’s International Channels: In ‘12 HBO reaches 47 Countries and 50M Subs By ’15 will reach 60 Countries and 73M Subs Revenue to grow 56% between ‘12 and ‘16

HBO’s Content Licensing: HBO content is seen in over 160 Countries Content Licensing revenue to grow 36% from ’12 to ’16 with larger deals and more content

HBO SVOD and HBO Go (Stand Alone) :

HBO VOD reaches over 2M people and HBO Go is expanding from Scandinavia to Latin America

HBO Home Entrainment: HBO DVD, Blu-Ray and Digital are distributed in over 70 countries WW

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 22  

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23 World Map

Netflix Global Coverage 30  Countries,  Expanding  to  60+  Countries  

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 23  

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World Map

Netflix Global Rollout

Netflix International Streaming: In ‘13 Netflix is available in over 20 countries with 10.5M Subs.

Netflix International Rollout: In ‘14 we believe that Netflix will continue to grow in Scandinavia and launch in the rest of Western Europe through ’15 & ‘16 Major launches in Japan, S Korea, Australia in ’15 Countries in Eastern Europe and SE Asia will being to have access in ‘16 – ‘18

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 24  

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Netflix Potential Revenue Hedge Opportunity: Content Licensing

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 25  

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Price per M for Catalog $1.13 $1.19 $1.27 $1.34 $1.42 Customer (MVPD) Reach 46.1 110.5 117.6 124.7 131.8

Total Licensing Rev (M) $52.0 $132.0 $149.0 $167.4 $187.5 % of Total Rev 1.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

Customer (MVPD) Reach 92.20 177.25 224.65 264.26 284.84 Total Licensing Rev (M) $103.9 $211.8 $284.5 $354.7 $405.3

% of Total Rev 2.1% 3.5% 4.0% 4.4% 4.6%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Price per M for Catalog $3.30 $3.40 $3.40 $3.50 $3.50 Customer (MVPD) Reach 116.9 124.1 131.3 138.6 145.8

Total Licensing Rev (M) $387.70 $417.80 $448.90 $480.70 $513.50

% of Total Rev 8.20% 8.40% 8.60% 8.90% 9.10%

Content licensing to Int’l TV Networks is a good revenue stream and hedge if Netflix is not going to have an aggressive international rollout of streaming service. Otherwise it’s not worth it for Netflix.

Aggressive Int’l Streaming Rollout

Non -Aggressive Int’l Streaming Rollout

Compare To:

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Netflix and HBO Projections

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 26  

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total Subscribers Total Revenue

Netflix HBO

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Netflix and HBO Projections

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 27  

Total Contribution Profit Contribution Profit Margin

Netflix HBO

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Netflix and HBO Projections

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 28  

Total Operating Profit Operating Profit Margin

Netflix HBO

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Content Benefits & Costs

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 29  

hcp://qz.com/177549/neTlix-­‐is-­‐outdoing-­‐hbo-­‐and-­‐show=me-­‐with-­‐its-­‐buzzy-­‐original-­‐shows/  

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Appendix

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 30  

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Netflix HBO Subscribers Potential for Growth or Decline

Graph  with  NeTlix  and  HBO  projec=ons  next  to  their  Serviceable  Addressable  Markets  Will  show  that:  1.  HBO  Domes=c  has  a  shrinking  SAM  2.  NFLX  Domes=c  has  a  growing  SAM  but  growth  slows  aler  ’16  3.  HBO  Int’l  SAM  has  grown  because  of  consolida=on  but  no  new  opening  

markets  4.  NFLX  Int’l  show  a  rapidly  expanding  SAM  with  significant  barriers  to  entry  

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 31  

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HBO Opportunities

•  Content Licensing

•  International Channels

•  HBO Go

•  Increasing Revenue from MVPDs

•  Expanded Content Production

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 32  

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Netflix Opportunities

•  Domestic Expansion

•  International Expansion

•  Content Licensing

•  Increasing Serviceable Addressable Market (Domestic and International)

•  Partnerships (ISP, Devices, Studios, TV)

•  Data

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 33  

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Threats to Netflix & HBO Large companies that don’t need to make money on content streaming

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 34  

MVPD  +    

•  Premium  Catalog  and  Original  Content  •  Future:  Ad  Supported,  Premium  TV  Content  •  Already  large  player  in  content  ecosystem  (2nd  largest  HE  Retailer)  •  Prime  Video  as  a  value  add  to  Amazon  Prime  service      

Google/YouTube:    •  UGC,  Original  Content,  Some  Premium  Catalog  Content  •  Wide  Distribu=on  •  Video  as  a  value  add  to  Google  Ecosystem  to  gather  data  and  serve  ads  

•  Premium  TV  Content,  Early  Window,  Catch  up  TV  +  some  movies  •  Exclusive  content  deals  •  Video  as  a  value  add  to  Google  Ecosystem  to  gather  data  and  serve  ads  

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Threats to Netflix

•  Content Costs – Amortization of Content, Content Costs Rising

•  International Rollout Stagnation

•  Content Digital Distribution Competition (see other slide)

•  Fracturization of audience attention

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 35  

NFLX 10K or annual report

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Threats to HBO

•  Lowering TV Viewership – Fracturization of audience attention

•  MVPD Cost escalation

•  Rising Content Costs

•  Content Digital Distribution Competition (see other slide)

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 36  

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HBO Strategy

•  Continue to consolidate international channels, increase ARPU

•  Increase premium content •  Increase content syndication (raise costs) •  Negotiate better output deals •  Experiment with HBO Go domestic and roll out

international •  Cut down costs on sports content (CVN) •  Reduce risk in content creation (CVN) •  Reduce churn – decouple from MVPDs (CVN)

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 37  

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Netflix Strategy •  Increase Revenue

–  Increase Domestic Subscriptions –  Expand Internationally

•  License Content (CVN) •  Raise Consumer Price 2015 (CVN) •  Reduce Costs

–  Tech / Delivery –  Content Licensing –  Strategic Partnerships

•  Reduce Churn •  Improve Infrastructure (Tech)

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 38  

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Netflix Almost As Popular As Cable For Young Adults

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 39  

% of American adults who subscribe to the following Pay-TV services, by age (Oct ’13)

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Effect of Monthly Netflix Use on Regular TV Consumption (June ‘12)

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 40  

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Netflix vs. HBO ARPU, Costs and Profitability

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 41  

2012   2014   2016  

NeTlix   HBO   NeTlix   HBO   NeTlix   HBO  

$7.99   $7.67   $7.99   $8.22   $8.99   $8.72  

Content    Licensing  

Original    Content  

Marke=ng  

Contribu=on    Profit  

ARPU  /  Month  

*  HBO  and  NeTlix  Domes=c  

As  HBO’s  domes=c  business  stabilizes  it’s  only  growth  is  in  APRU  forced  from  MVPDs  NeTlix  has  increasing  costs  on  mul=ple  fronts  but  subscriber  growth  is  enough  to  increase    profit  margin  (with  a  licle  help  from  a  price  increase)  

16.9%  

47.4%  24.6%  

44.0%   37.7%   29.8%  11.8%  

4.1%  

8.5%  

6.5%  6.2%   17.1%  

20.7%  

11.8%  

22.5%  16.0%  

26.2%  71.3%  

27.8%  

55.0%  

27.0%  40.0%  

26.9%  

Page 42: Netflix vs HBO v3 (2 17-14)

TV Content Moving Online Retrans/Affiliate  Fees  –  Retrans  3.0  over  soon  Digital  Rights  more  important  in  nego=a=ons    MVPDs  partnering  with  sports  for  Regional  cable  nets  –  cut  out  middle  man  and  bolster  nego=a=ons  MVPD  Revenue/Profit  Change  (TV  -­‐>  BB)  Declining  TV  Viewership  Declining  MVPD  Subs  MVPD  consolida=on  Melinials  and  subsequent  genera=ons  not  watching  Cable  Fragmented  Mindshare  Increasing  BB  Penetra=on,  Connected  Devices  Hulu  cour=ng  MVPDs  Comcast  HBO  Go  experiment    MVPDs  promo=ng  online  video  Increasing  value  of  licensing  content  –  larger  rev  stream  of  content  providers,  to  online  companies  Online  video  has  big  players  that  don’t  make  money  on  online  video  MVPDs  –  how  to  leverage/exploit  last  mile  more  

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 42  

Page 43: Netflix vs HBO v3 (2 17-14)

MVPDs similar to Nets •  Fewer TV watchers overall (digital/online and other options - attention fragmentation), rising

costs (content production/purchasing, higher affiliate/re-trans rates), more competition (more cable channels, telco/satellite)

•  MVPDs similar to networks, death spiral– smaller audiences, charge more for rev (MVPDs: customers, Nets: Ads, MVPDs) Smaller audiences need to go broader and cut costs

•  Competition for both gaining MVPDs – telco, satellite, digital/online and other options (attention fragmentation), TV Nets: other channels, digital/online and other options (attention fragmentation)

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 43  

Page 44: Netflix vs HBO v3 (2 17-14)

Random Thoughts and Threats •  NeTlix  surpasses  HBO  in  Revenue  in  2014  and  Contribu=on  Profit  in  2016  but  does  

not  exceed  HBO  in  Profit  Margin  •  Domes=c  Streaming:  Amazon  bigger  compe=tor  than  previously  thought  -­‐  Hulu  

like  service  (becer  adver=sement)  with  Prime  Domes=c  Streaming:    •  Tipping  point  for  cable  vs  broadband  within  3-­‐4  yrs.  HBO  GO  with  ISP  partners  

(lower  base  rate)    •  NeTlix  will  start  to  own  content  and  make  revenue  from  that  soon  HBO's  business  

is  much  different  outside  US  -­‐  JVs,  Licensing  content  etc    •  Immersive  entertainment  -­‐  NFLX  could  be  early  provider  for  this  experience  of  

content  =tles  -­‐  becer  data    •  Poten=al  partnerships  with  Facebook,  plaTorms  exploited  -­‐  lower  acquisi=on  

costs,  higher  reten=on    •  Can  NeTlix  or  HBO  get  becer,  deeper  data  on  users?    Amazon,  Google  has  this.    •  Increase  in  Interna=onal  Middle  Class,  increase  in  Fixed  BB  and  Mobile  BB,  

Increased  market  for  NeTlix,  HBO,  HBO  Go  and  Content  Licensing    •  Many  of  the  subscriber  number  assump=ons  for  HBO  are  flawed.    73  Int'l  Subs,  

114  Global  Subs  (INCLUDING  domes=c)  for  both  HBO  AND  Cinemax.  Many  do  not  differen=ate  between  HBO  and  Cinemax    

Chris Van Noy, CVN 2014 44