NEP Presentation

Transition of the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Project from research to

operations

Chet Koblinsky

NOAA Climate Office

08 January 2004

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Outline

• Purpose:• Issue• Background & Discussion• Alternatives• Coordination and Views• Output• Recommendation

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Purpose

• NEP Decision– Should we reconsider the no-cost option given the

PBA, PA&E Serial 7, Draft Research Review Team Report?

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Issue

• Transition of TAO/PIRATA operations from PMEL to NDBC management.– Driver:

• NOAA commitment to implement operational climate services within the NWS

– Risks:• The ocean system is only 45% complete. It is still evolving.

– Composite of moored and drifting arrays, tide gauge stations, ships, satellites, data

– TAO alone cannot meet NWS data requirements

• Draft Research Review Team Report:– NOAA does not have an agency-wide transition roadmap– Climate products do not have a clear, singular line office home. If elements

are migrated there is danger of compromise (near term pressures inherent in operational lines)

– Routine climate products require constant monitoring and upgrade in a research environment

A System of Complementary Networks.Initial Design. It will Evolve.

Now 45% complete.

Tide Gauge Network 45 % complete 3˚x3˚ Argo Profiling Float Array 32% complete 5˚x5˚ Surface Drifting Buoy Array 35 % complete Moored Buoy Existing Planned Ocean Reference Station Existing Planned High Resolution XBT and Flux Line Existing Planned Frequently Repeated XBT Line Existing Planned Carbon Inventory & Deep Ocean Line Global Survey @ 10 years

Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Height, Surface Vector Wind, and Ocean Color from Space

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Issue (continued)

• Organizations involved:– PMEL, OAR

• Developed TAO 1985-95 and operated it since 1995, PIRATA since 1998, in collaboration with international partners for climate monitoring, research, and forecasting

• Mission statement (research) does not include sustained climate observation

– NDBC, NWS• Operational weather mission is being expanded to include sustained

climate observation

– NOAA Climate Office• Manages the Climate Observation Program. TAO/PIRATA is a central

element of the composite global observing system (moored and drifting arrays, ships, tide gauges stations, satellites, data)

– International partners• TAO: PMEL MOU with Japan --JAMSTEC• PIRATA: OGP MOU with France (IRD & MeteoFrance) and Brazil (INPE)

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Issue (continued)

• Desired outcome– Expedite transition (mandate from NEC July meeting)– Maintain at least the present level of data return and

product delivery (do no harm)– Minimize cost– The transition must be transparent to users (22 million

web hits in FY 03) and partners

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Background & Discussion

• Important past events – what got us to this point– PRT recommended transition; NDBC and PMEL directed to

prepare a transition plan.– March 2003: NEC considered the plan, Option 1 & Option 2.

Option 2 was selected. Transition project initiated.– July 2003: NEC reconsidered/rejected Option 2 (too slow) and

directed an updated plan by October 2003.– October 2003: NWS and OAR unable to reach

agreement/compromise on rationale for updating the plan.– December 2003: NWS-OAR-Climate Office

agreement/compromise achieved. NDBC and PMEL directed to proceed and update the plan by February 2004.

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Background & Discussion(Continued)

• Who has been involved in the discussion?– Lautenbacher, Kelly, Jones, Koch, Moersdorf, Bernard, Glackin, Koblinsky– Letters early-on from external community advising caution:

• Science community enjoys “ownership” of TAO• Concern that NDBC has no track record in operating oceanographic moorings• Climate operations are different from weather operations -- sustained involvement of

scientists is needed• No model exists for successful transition of a climate observing system

• Approach taken: Top-down mandate. – NDBC and PMEL were directed by DAAs to develop a cooperative solution

-- resulted in Option 1.– OAR/NWS proposed an alternative spiral development approach -- resulted

in Option 2– Director of Climate Office with DAAs directed NDBC and PMEL to transfer

TAO/PIRATA as an operating unit in tact to expedite, minimize risk, minimize cost.

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Alternatives

• Alternative 1: Status Quo -- PMEL continues to operate the end-to-end data collection and delivery system.– Pros:

• No cost• Low risk -- present project is not broken• Consistent with matrix management• Consistent with climate observing system architecture• Responsive to external community

– Cons:• Inconsistent with PMEL’s mission which does not include sustained

climate observation.

– Next Steps:• Redefine PMEL’s mission to include sustained climate observation• Establish an R&D project within existing programmatic context of

system development -- develop a “next generation” designed from the outset for NDBC operations (follow the DART example)

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Alternatives

• Alternative 2: “Option 1” -- Develop a new oceanographic capability at NDBC; re-train existing TAO/PIRATA personnel at PMEL to undertake other science support efforts; maintain buoy inventories at both NDBC (operations) and PMEL (research)– Pros:

• Consistent with PMEL research mission and NWS operational mission• Low risk -- build oceanographic capability at NDBC before transition

– Cons:• High cost -- additional $2.6 million per year for three years ( present

TAO/PIRATA project is $3.6 million per year total)• Slow - three years to accomplish transition (Japanese TRITON

experience confirms high cost and slow process)• Not consistent with matrix management• Not responsive to external community

– Next Steps:• Look for a funding source in FY05 to undertake the transition project

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Alternatives

• Alternative 3: “Option 2” -- Spiral development -- NDBC-PMEL partnership with life cycle team working to progressively shift responsibility to NDBC as next a generation project is engineered

– Pros:– Transition already underway - the life cycle team has been established; the FY 03

milestones have been achieved– Consistent with PMEL research mission and NWS operational mission– Low risk -- transition elements to NDBC management as expertise exists or is

developed– Transition costs couched in the context of system development.

– Cons:– Perceived to be too slow– Redirects climate program funding presently identified for system development to be

used instead for transition costs– Not consistent with matrix management– Still requires building new expertise at NDBC and retraining of existing PMEL

technicians for other work– PMEL would have to raise new funding to support retrained personnel -- would

necessitate writing successful research proposals to acquire employee salary support

– Next Steps:– Notify the life cycle team to press forward

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Alternatives

• Alternative 4: Update the transition plan -- NDBC directed to take the lead; transfer the TAO/PIRATA operating unit in tact; maintain the center of operations in Seattle; accomplish asap

– Pros:• Consistent with PMEL research mission and NWS operational mission• Low risk -- same personnel continue operations (shifted to NDBC employment)• Transparent to users and international partners -- same personnel and data delivery • Transition costs minimized - no retraining needed; minimum movement between Seattle

and Stennis• A specific date for “transition” can be identified early in FY 05

– Cons:• Requires NDBC to establish a new “global operations” office in Seattle• Redirects climate program funding presently identified for system development to be used

instead for transition costs• Not consistent with matrix management

– Next Steps:• Arrange for review of the plan, both internally (NOSC) and externally (COSC), in Spring

2004.• Establish an R&D project within existing programmatic context of system development --

develop a “next generation” designed from the outset for operation by NDBC

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Coordination & NEP/Council Views

• Coordination:– The Climate Office will oversee this project

• TAO/PIRATA remains a central element of the broader climate observing system. Regardless of whether PMEL or NDBC operates TAO/PIRATA network, the funding will continue to be managed through the Climate Office.

• Japan, France, Brazil partners will be assured that NOAA remains committed to partnerships.

• NEP/Council Views:– NEP -- this briefing.– CFO Council should review estimated costs of the selected

Alternative– Other Relevant Councils:

• The NOSC should provide internal review of the selected Alternative in March.

• The COSC should provide external review of the selected Alternative at its April meeting.

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Output

• Output/result:– Demonstration of NOAA’s commitment to implement operational

climate services

• What does NOAA get for change?– Capability to sustain the tropical moored buoys over the long term -

continuous monitoring of the global tropics for documenting the air-sea exchange of heat, water, and carbon dioxide.

– Capacity:• Program funded assets: $3175 K

– 55 buoys in the Pacific, 10 buoys in the Atlantic, planning for 9 buoys in the Indian Ocean (inventory is approximately double the number of sustained deployments).

– 11 Federal FTEs– 8 non-Federal FTEs

• PMEL base funded assets: $400 K– Chief Scientist (McPhaden)– 8500 sq. ft. office/laboratory/shop space

– Performance measure: Maintain at least 85% data return.

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Recommendation

• Programmatic recommendation*:– Alternative 1: Status Quo

• No cost; low risk; achievable immediately• Requires redefinition of PMEL mission to include sustained

climate observation

• Policy recommendation (response to NEC):– Alternative 4: Transfer TAO/PIRATA operating unit in tact to

NDBC management.• Minimize cost; minimize risk; achievable by early FY05

* Must reconsider the no-cost option given the: – PBA (ocean system only 45% complete, still evolving)– PA&E Serial 7 (employ cost saving and creative solutions)– Research Review Team Report (no roadmap, danger of compromise,

climate products require research environment)