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AMS Webinar May 29, 2008

Dr. Chet Koblinsky Director, NOAA Climate Program Office

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climate Services: Responding to Growing Demands

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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report had a Profound Impact

“There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation and some aspects of extremes and of ice.” WG1 SPM

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The Social and Economic Context for Change……is changing

Increased Vulnerability

• 9 billion people by 2050 (50% increase)

• Increasing urbanization into mega-cities – 4 billion new city dwellers, aging populations, overdevelopment in coastal regions, and regions with limited water supply

• Income inequality growing within nations and between nations

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Status Quo is No Longer Sufficient

• The demand for relevant and reliable climate information is growing – Federal, regional, state, and local decision makers

need credible climate information at finer scales– The general public and the private sector need a clearly

identified, credible point of access to the federal government’s climate resources

– The Nation’s scientific community needs a comprehensive, reliable, high quality network of authoritative information

The federal government needs a coherent, comprehensive strategy to provide authoritative climate information in an integrated and focused

manner to meet evolving national needs

Unmet Demands for Climate Information

Land managers in Western states are dealing with more prolonged periods of drought and are requesting long-term regional temperature and precipitation data and easily accessible and understandable tools (Western Governors’ Association).

A broad scope of industries face operational challenges due to climate change, including utilities, integrated oil and gas, mining and metals, insurance, pharmaceuticals, building and construction, and real estate (Lehman Brothers).

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US Conference of Mayors Policy Statement, August, 2007

National Governors Policy Statement, 2007

Western Governors Association Congressional Testimony, 2007

Lehman Brothers Report on Climate and the Private Sector, 2006

University of Maryland Conference: Climate Information: Responding to User Needs, 2007

NCDC Workshop with Energy, Insurance and Transportation Sectors, 2007

National Intelligence Estimate: Climate and National Security

GAO Report on Climate Needs of Federal Resource Managers, 2007

The growing demand for climate information

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Congress Has Recognized National Needs

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20502

January 22, 2008

The Honorable Daniel K. Inouye Chairman Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation United States Senate Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Mr. Chairman: I write to express the Administration’s views on S. 2307, “The Global Change Research Improvement Act of 2007.” …

Pending Legislation• S. 2307 – Global Change Research Improvement Act

of 2007 – Establishes a National Climate Service within NOAA

that “shall produce and deliver authoritative, timely and usable information about climate change, climate variability, trends, and impacts on local, State, regional, national, and global scales.”

NOAA’s Role is Essential• Administration’s views on S. 2307

– “The purpose and functions of a National Climate Service described in this bill are desirable and the Administration supports the designation of NOAA as the lead federal agency for operational climate monitoring and prediction. Most of the infrastructure and institutional capabilities required to fulfill the work of a National Climate Service currently exist, primarily within NOAA.”

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The Service, at a minimum, shall-

(A) provide comprehensive and authoritative information about the state of the climate and its effects, through observations, monitoring, …;

(B) provide predictions and projections on the future state of the climate …;(C) utilize appropriate research from the United States Global Change Research

Program activities and conduct focused research, as needed, …;(D) utilize assessments from the Global Change Research Program activities and

conduct focused assessments as needed …;(E) assess and strengthen delivery mechanisms for providing climate information

to end users;(F) communicate … on an ongoing basis to decision- and policy- makers, the

private sector, and to the public;(G) coordinate and collaborate … with municipal, state, regional, national and

international agencies and organizations, as appropriate;(H) support the Department of State and international agencies …;(I) … monitor, measure, and verify greenhouse gas levels, dates, and emissions

throughout the global oceans and atmosphere; and(J) issue an annual report that identifies greenhouse emission and trends ….

Congressional ViewS. 2307 Specific Services

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In response to the emerging demand for climate information and a need for a coordinated service, NOAA has established an internal working group with representatives from each line office to begin to:

1. Define climate services and a National Climate Service

2. Define NOAA’s role for the provision of climate services

3. Assess evolving user needs for climate information

4. Assess other private and public sector involvement in climate services

5. Begin to develop a draft Climate Services strategy for NOAA

6. Engage external community

Developing NOAA’s Climate Service Strategy

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National Climate Service

• Public demand for climate information exceeds current capacity• Sources of information are distributed and usually not coordinated• Commitment to establish a National Climate Service is needed to integrate provision of NOAA’s climate products and services• NOAA needs to engage other agencies and organizations in defining their roles in a National Climate Service partnership• Improved capabilities are needed to enable:

– User and issue focused approach– Better monitoring– Improve national to local predictions and projections– Assessments of impacts and vulnerabilities in support

of adaptation and mitigation

CarbonTracker

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A Strategy for National Climate Services

• The proposed establishment, within NOAA, of a National Climate Service:

• To be the nation's identified, accessible, centralized source of authoritative, regular, and timely climate information

• This includes historical and real-time data, monitoring and assessments, research and modeling, predictions and projections, decision support tools and early warning systems, and the development and delivery of valued climate services

• The proposed establishment of a national climate services partnership across federal agencies:

• To become the mechanism through which the nation’s goals with regard to managing risks associated with climate variability and change are identified, and investments and activities relevant to the production and application of climate information are coordinated

• The focus of the partnership is on ensuring that highly usable, actionable, issue-focused information is produced and evaluated

• The intention is that the activities of the Service and the distributed set of resources throughout the nation (including universities, federal, state and local science and management agencies, and non-governmental organizations) work in close collaboration.

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NOAA’s vision is a service that leads to:

An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts

The mission for a National Climate Service in NOAA is:

to develop and deliver research, information and services to enhance society's ability to understand, anticipate,

mitigate, and adapt to climate variability and change

A National Climate Service

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Strategic Goals

1. Provide Leadership for a National Climate Services Partnership

2. Build and Sustain Comprehensive Observations and Monitoring Systems

3. Provide State-of-the-Art Research, Modeling, Predictions, and Projections

4. Develop, Deliver, and Communicate Valued Climate Services in Collaboration with Users

A National Climate Service

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Climate Service Case Study: Coastal Regions

Enterprise solution and problem focused:

• Sea level • Precipitation patterns and

associated effects on freshwater, nutrient, and sediment flow

• Ocean temperature • Circulation patterns• Frequency, track and intensity of

coastal storms• Levels of atmospheric CO2 and

ocean acidification

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National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

A result of requests by the Western Governors Association and the NIDIS act of 2006

• NIDIS is an example of a national effort led by NOAA to coordinate across federal agencies the monitoring, data, and models needed to provide:

– Ongoing information on current and future drought conditions across the nation

And

– Region specific products for drought management, planning and adaptation, and education and outreach tools

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Lessons from NIDIS

- Enterprise solution- Regional implementation of a drought early warning system – The plan for NIDIS Pilots

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Climate Service Case Study:Living Marine Resources

NOAA-centric and Problem focused:

• Attribution of Climate Signals impacting ecosystems : Long Term Change & Natural Variability

• Ocean Warming: Impacts on Distribution & Productivity (phenology, production, invasives)

• Impacts of Loss of Sea Ice on Living Marine Resources (at both poles)*

• Ocean Acidification Impacts on Marine Biota*

• Freshwater Supply & Resource Management*

• Sea Level Rise (Natural Resource Implications)*

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The National Climate Services Partnership

NOAA Climate Service

Observations/MonitoringResearch, Modeling

& Assessments

Resource Risk Management Adaptation & Mitigation

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Convening and organizing the national climate services partnership

• The nation’s investment in climate information is distributed across agencies;

however, for the partnership to be successful, a single federal agency must be

accountable for achieving the partnership’s mission

• The ideas presented here will be further developed and refined in collaboration with

academic, governmental, private, and non-governmental organizations

• NOAA presents this proposal to initiate a dialogue with partners and offers to convene

this dialogue by engaging a broad range of participating agencies and organizations

national climate services partnership

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This partnership:

• Is based on the concept of a climate service developed by numerous Scientific bodies (National Academy of Sciences), Congress, other mission agencies, state and federal resource managers

• Responds to Congressional, federal, state, local, and tribal governments, and the private sector demand for guidance to plan for and adapt to a changing climate

This partnership would:

• Articulate new and emerging needs to guide future observation, research, modeling, and forecast development activities

• Ensure a strong and healthy transition and diffusion of knowledge across research, applications, operations, and information use

• Develop regional enterprises designed to expand the nature and scope of climate services of direct relevance to regional stakeholders

• Increase support for interdisciplinary impacts studies, applications, and education

national climate services partnership

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Benefits to the Nation

• Improved understanding of the causes and impacts of climate change will enable sound adaptation and mitigation strategies.

• More accurate climate predictions will improve preparation for and response to heat waves, drought, coastal inundation, and other phenomena.

• Policy makers and business leaders will be equipped with the most accurate and credible information to inform their decisions.

• Relevant and reliable climate data will stimulate the private development of technologies and applications.

A National Climate Service will provide wide-ranging benefits to society and the economy, nationally and internationally.

Weather and climate sensitive industries,

both directly and indirectly, account for about one-third of the Nation’s GDP ranging

from finance, insurance, and real estate to

services, retail and wholesale trade and

manufacturing. - John Dutton, BAMS 2002

[Editors Note: This is about $4.6 trillion in 2007 dollars.]

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Thank You