NEO Program 2015for SBAG #12

Lindley Johnson

Near Earth Object Observations

Program Executive

NASA HQ

January 6, 2015

US component to International Spaceguard Survey effort

Has provided 98% of new detections of NEOs since 1998

Began with NASA commitment to House Committee on Science in May 1998 to find at least 90% of 1 km and larger NEOs Averaged ~$4M/year Research funding 2002-2010

That goal reached by end of 2010

NASA Authorization Act of 2005 provided additional direction:

“…plan, develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program to detect, track, catalogue, and characterize the physical characteristics of near-Earth objects equal to or greater than 140 meters in diameter in order to assess the threat of such near-Earth objects to the Earth. It shall be the goal of the Survey program to achieve 90 percent completion of its near-Earth object catalogue within 15 years [by 2020].

Updated Program Objective: Discover > 90% of NEOs larger than 140 meters in size as soon as possible In FY2012 budget increased to $20.5 M/year

With FY2014 budget now at $40 M/year

NEO Observations Program

2

NASA’s NEO Search Program(Current Systems)

Catalina Sky

Survey

UofAZ

Arizona & Australia

Minor Planet Center (MPC)• IAU sanctioned• Int’l observation database• Initial orbit determinationhttp://minorplanetcenter.net/

NEO Program Office @ JPL• Program coordination • Precision orbit determination • Automated SENTRY http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

Pan-STARRS

Uof HI

Haleakula, Maui

NEO-WISE

JPL

Sun-synch LEO

3

Operations

Jan 2010

Feb 2011,

135 NEAs found

Reactivated

Sep 2013

Began ops in Dec

35 NEAs 3 comets

LINEAR/SST

MIT/LL Soccoro, NM

Spaceguard Survey Catalog ProgramCurrent Spaceguard Survey Infrastructure and Process

Survey,

Detect,

& Report

Correlate, Determine

Rough Orbit

Possible

New PHO?

Routine

Processing

Publish

Results

Yes

Potential

Impact?

Resolve

Result

Differences

Publish

Results

No

Precision Orbit

and Follow Up

Observations

Impact

Still

Possible?

Observations and

Update Orbit

Publish/

Update

Results

No

No

Yes

Yes

Iterate

Survey Systems

Minor Planet Center

JPL NEO Office*

* In parallel with NEODyS

RadarAlerts to

NASA HQ

• MPC - PHO

of interest

• MPC -

possible

close

approach

• JPL - reports

potential for

impact

• JPL -

publishes

probability of

impact

4

Known Near Earth Asteroid Population

Start of

NASA NEO

Program

As of

01/01/15

12,043

Includes 95

comets

1533

PHAs

868

155 PHAs

5

6

Annual Near Earth Asteroid Discoveries

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Dis

cove

rie

s p

er

Year

NEO Discovery Stats

# <1km

# >1km

100

102

104

106

108

1010

910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031

10-1

102

105

108

100

102

104

106

108

0.01 0.1 1 10

Brown et al. 2002Constant power lawDiscovered to 7/21/102010

K-T

Im

pacto

r

Tunguska

Absolute Magnitude, H

Diameter, Km

N(<

H)

Impact In

terv

al, y

ears

Impact Energy, MT

Population of NEAs by Size, Brightness,

Impact Energy & Frequency (A. L. Harris 2010)P

op

ula

tio

n (

po

we

rs o

f 1

0)

0.01 0.1 1 10

Assumes average density and

20 km/sec impact velocityHiroshima

Protected by

Earth’s

Atmosphere

Ave

rage

Im

pa

ct In

terv

al (y

rs)

8

Near Earth Asteroid Survey Status

9

Near Earth Asteroid Survey Status

100

102

104

106

108

1010

910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031

10-1

102

105

108

100

102

104

106

108

0.01 0.1 1 10

Brown et al. 2002Constant power lawDiscovered to 7/21/102010

K-T

Im

pacto

r

Tunguska

Absolute Magnitude, H

Diameter, Km

N(<

H)

Impact In

terv

al, y

ears

Impact Energy, MT

Population of NEAs by Size, Brightness,

Impact Energy & Frequency (A. L. Harris 2010)

140 m

50 m

1 km

~250,000

~20,000

~ 1,000

Po

pu

lati

on

(p

ow

ers

of

10

)

0.01 0.1 1 10

Assumes average density and

20 km/sec impact velocityHiroshima

Protected by

Earth’s

Atmosphere

Ave

rage

Im

pa

ct In

terv

al (y

rs)

11

Near Earth Asteroid Survey Status

• Radar is essential for obtaining an accurate estimate of size

and shape to within ~2 m, as well as rotation state.

• Ground-based and space-based IR measurements are

important for estimating albedo and spectral class, and from

these an approximate density can be inferred.

• Light curves are important to estimate shape and rotation

state.

• Long-arc high-precision astrometry is important for

determining the area-to-mass ratio.

• Mass is estimated from size and shape using an inferred or

assumed density, and it should be constrained by the

estimate of the area-to-mass ratio. Even so, mass may only

be known to within a factor of 3 or 4.

• Composition can only be roughly assessed via analogy to

spectral class.

12

Physical Characterization of NEAs

Assumed albedo

r = 0.04

Assumed albedo

r = 0.34

Characterization Process

Observations

Intermediate parameters

Objectives

Rough

orbit

Precise

orbit

Absolute

magnitude

Density

Size

Albedo

Apparent

magnitude

MassSpectral

type

Phase curves

Colors,

Spectroscopy

Radar

Light curvesRotation,

Shape

Additional

astrometry

Initial

detection,

astrometry,

photometry

Thermal

infrared

Rough Approximation ofPrecise

Approximate

Area/Mass

Ratio

Astrometry over

months or years

Primary NEO Characterization Assets

and Enhancements

14

NASA InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF)• Increased call-up for Rapid Response

• Improving operability/maintainability

• Improve Instrumentation for Spectroscopy and

Thermal Signatures

Arecibo ObservatoryGoldstone Radar

Radar (Goldstone and Arecibo)• Increased time for NEO observations

• Streamlining Rapid Response capabilities

• Improve maintainability

Spitzer Infrared Space Telescope• Orbit about Sun, ~176 million km trailing Earth

• In extended Warm-phase mission

• Characterization of Comets and Asteroids

• Thermal Signatures, Albedo/Sizes of NEOs

• Longer time needed for scheduling

2014 BR57 observed by Goldstone Radar Feb 18th

15

• Example of how ~4m-scale boulders can be seen at very high radar SNR.

80 m

~4-m scale boulders

16NASA Pre-Decisional – Internal Use Only – Do Not Distribute

Mitigation Studies and Related Efforts

• Mitigation Studies

– NEO Observations Program mitigation effects grants

– NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts Program study awards

– Kinetic Impactor demonstration mission studies

• Impactor for Surface and Interior Science (ISIS) mission concept

• Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission concept (with ESA)

• Interagency Efforts

– Impact Effects Studies

• Ames Research Center with DOE National Laboratories – Sandia and Lawrence Livermore

– Impact Emergency Response Exercises

• December 2008 US Air Force Interagency Deliberate Planning Exercise – Natural Impact Hazard

• April 2013, May 2014 - FEMA HQ Impact Emergency Response Table Top Exercises (TTX)

– Newly initiated capabilities studies with DARPA and DOE National Nuclear

Security Administration (NNSA)

• International Efforts

– UN Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Scientific and Technical Subcommittee

• NEO Working Group and Action Team – 14 17

Overview for NEO Threat Response*

International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN)

Space Missions Planning Advisory

Group(SMPAG)

Observers, analysts, modelers…

Space Agencies andOffices

United NationsCOPUOS/OOSA

Inform in case of credible threat

Determine Impact time, location and severity

Potential deflection mission plans

Parent GovernmentDelegates

UN Office of Outer Space AffairsCommittee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space

*http://www.oosa.unvienna.org/oosa/en/COPUOS/stsc/wgneo/index.html

19

Second IAWN Element: Existing WorldwideObserving Network

Received Data from 46 countries in 2012

Overview for NEO Threat Response

International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN)

Space Missions Planning Advisory

Group(SMPAG)

Observers, analysts, modelers…

Space Agencies andOffices

United NationsCOPUOS/OOSA

Inform in case of credible threat

Determine Impact time, location and severity

Potential deflection mission plans

Parent GovernmentDelegates

UN Office of Outer Space AffairsCommittee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space

Meetings of Steering Cmte, January 13-14, 2014, @ MPCNovember 11, 2014, @ DPS

2 Formulation Meetings February 6-7, 2014, @ ESOCJune 11-12 @ UN COPUOS

NEOO Project Stats 2014

21

Project Areas:

• Search

• 8 Projects

• Radar

• 8 Projects

• Infrastructure

• 5 Projects

• Characterization

• 13 Projects

• Follow-up

• 13 Projects

• Concept Studies

• 4 Projects

• Mitigation Studies

• 5 Projects

• Program Support

• 3 Projects

Search Projects, $15,180,733,

40%

Radar Capabilities, $6,402,233,

17%

Infrastructure Capabilities, $5,752,861,

15%

Characterization, $4,042,814, 11%

Follow-up, $3,148,661, 8%

Studies, $1,985,444, 5%

Mitigation Studies, $974,438, 2%

Program Support, $680,000, 2%

ARM Studies, $60,000, 0% Education,

$60,000, 0%

NEOO Project Stats 2015

22

Project Areas:

• Search

• 5 Projects

• Radar

• 5 Projects

• Data Analysis

• 3 Projects

• Characterization

• 13 Projects

• Follow-up

• 12 Projects

• Tech Development

• 5 Projects

• Studies

• 3 Projects

• Mitigation Studies

• 5 Projects

• Program Support

• 3 Projects

Tech Development,

$4,847,968, 12%

Study, $578,971,

1%

Search, $8,728,420,

22%

Radar, $4,757,450, 12%Program

Support, $1,150,000, 3%

Mitigation Study,

$4,968,178, 12%

Follow-up, $3,964,076, 10%

Data Processing & Analysis,

$1,934,240, 5%

Characterization Infrastructure,

$5,986,239, 15%

Characterization, $3,122,855, 8%

NASA OIG Report

23

NASA’s Efforts to Identify Near-Earth Objects and Mitigate HazardsAUDIT REPORT SEPTEMBER 15, 2014

Audit performed from September 2013 through August 2014

“We initiated this review to examine NASA’s NEO Program and assess the

Agency’s progress toward meeting statutory and other Program goals. Specifically,

we reviewed NASA’s allocation and use of resources and plans for the future of the

Program.”

NASA OIG Report

24

To improve NASA’s efforts to discover, characterize, and mitigate NEO threats, the OIG

recommends that the Associate Administrator for the Science Mission Directorate (SMD):

Recommendation 1: Develop a formal NEO Program in accordance with NASA policies

that includes a strategic plan to obtain statutory and programmatic goals, integrated master

schedule, and cost estimates.

Management’s Response:

SMD concurs with this recommendation. The assets currently used, as well as additional

capabilities needed, to detect, track and characterize the hazardous NEO population can best

be described as a loosely coupled system of systems that are managed, designed and

operated by a variety of science institutions and personnel – almost all within a scientific

research background and setting. These elements operate at or very near the forefront of our

scientific understanding of these smallest constituents of our solar system and the

engineering of the systems is likewise at the edge. We agree that the proposed approach to

manage this effort in accordance with NPR 7120.8, NASA Research and Technology

Program and Project Management Requirements, will maximize the results and offer the

potential to reduce contractual costs while providing the flexibility to maintain individually

customized research approaches under over-arching strategies established at a program

level.

NASA OIG Report

25

The OIG also recommends that the Associate Administrator for SMD should direct the NEO

Program Executive to:

Recommendation 2: Develop and implement requirements, procedures, and internal

controls to address program deficiencies.

Management’s Response:

SMD concurs with establishing a program that follows the Agency’s requirements,

procedures and internal controls in exercising the Agency’s fiduciary responsibilities, and

firmly believes that the NEO Observations projects that are currently funded already follow

NASA’s standard procedures for awarding research grants and contracts, with multiple

levels of review and independent internal controls in the award and funding of our research

activities.

Recommendation 3: Perform a full-time equivalent analysis to determine the appropriate

number of staff needed to manage, oversee, and administer the Program and associated

funding instruments.

Management’s Response:

SMD concurs with this recommendation. An FTE analysis will be conducted and

incorporated into plans for the program.

NASA OIG Report

26

Recommendation 4: Develop a plan to establish formal, documented partnerships with

domestic and international agencies to leverage resources and complementary technologies.

Management’s Response:

SMD concurs with this recommendation and it will be incorporated into the NEO Program

Plan. It is our view that the program is on the proper course to establish both the appropriate

domestic and international partnerships. While NEO activities are very new to our potential

partners, there have been considerable efforts within US Government interagency working

groups, and international coordination efforts within the constructs of the UN Committee On

Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) Working Group on NEOs are highly documented,

all of which are worked in coordination with the NASA Office of Interagency and

International Relations (OIIR).

NASA OIG Report

27

Recommendation 5: Establish a systematic oversight process pursuant to which NASA-

funded observatories are required to coordinate with each other in order to avoid duplication

of effort.

Management’s Response:

SMD concurs with the intent of this recommendation. As noted in the audit report, SMD

has already taken steps to ensure project activities are coordinated, and will continue to do

so in the future. Strategy for coordination of activities will be documented in the program

plan. This is not the same as coordinating nightly observations of survey teams, where we

believe the existing competitive environment across all of our assets is maximizing the

identification of new NEOs through continuous improvement for increased sky coverage,

improved detection limits, moving object algorithms and astrometric accuracy.