Climate change adaptation in

SWW and beyondNEIL WHITER

Head of Supply Demand Strategy

South West Water

BHS SW Section Meeting on Climate Change & Hydrology

Wednesday 6th July 2011

• Climate change

• Consequences of climate change

• Assessment of climate change risk

• Investment in climate change adaptation

• Conclusions

Climate change adaptation in SWW

and beyond

• Natural

phenomena

• Without it the

earth would be at

-18oC

• Increasing levels

of certain gases in

the atmosphere

causes additional

warming

• More energy in

the system

The greenhouse effect

5

South West England central estimate

Medium emissions

Risk to food security

Heat related deaths

Risks to biodiversity

Infrastructure risks

Increased heat stress

Increased tourism

But the temperature on the hottest

day of the year could increase by

up to 10ºC

Increased mean summer temperature

+1.6oC

2020

+2.3oC

2040

+3.9oC

2080

6

Reduced stream

flow and water

quality

Increased drought

Potential benefits for

tourism

Subsidence

Serious water stress

Decreased crop

yields

Decreased summer precipitation

South West England central estimate

Medium emissions

2080

-23%

2020

-7%

2040

-13%

7

Increased winter

flooding

Increased subsidence

Risks to urban

drainage

Severe Transport

disruption

Risks of national

Infrastructure

Increased winter precipitation

South West England central estimate

Medium emissions

+7%

2020

+14%

2040

+23%

2080

Greater uncertainty

& more extremes!

Our future

• Climate change

Climate change adaptation in SWW

and beyond

• Climate change

• Consequences of climate change

Climate change adaptation in SWW

and beyond

Tewksbury 2007

Sunday 22 July 2007

Mythe WTW, Tewksbury (July 2007)

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk

(Paul A'Barrow, Royal Navy)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire

Royal Navy helping to clear the

contaminated fresh water tanks

Over 138,000 properties

lost water supply

Drinking water

supplies

http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire

Gavin Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk 26.7.07http://www.bbc.co.uk 25.7.07

London Road, Gloucester Water delivery by the army at Bishop's Cleeve

Getting water supplies through a flood

Gloucester July 2007 Bangladesh September 2007

• Annual rainfall 2.4m

• Normally a third of the country

floods each year

• In severe floods, two thirds of the

country floods

• September 2007: exceptionally

heavy rainfall caused the

Brahmaputra River to flood for a

second time that year.

• Over 500,000 people were evacuated

• Rainfall projections for Bangladesh

over the next decades show

significant increases in rainfall

Flooding in Bangladesh

• 90% of the country is alluvial

plain less than 10m above sea

level

• About 10% is less than 1m above

sea level

• 93% of the flow passing through

Bangladesh originates outside

the country

Vulnerability

Pynes Water Treatment Works, Exeter

0.1

1

10

100

1000

01/0

1/76

15/0

1/76

29/0

1/76

12/0

2/76

26/0

2/76

11/0

3/76

25/0

3/76

08/0

4/76

22/0

4/76

06/0

5/76

20/0

5/76

03/0

6/76

17/0

6/76

01/0

7/76

15/0

7/76

29/0

7/76

12/0

8/76

26/0

8/76

09/0

9/76

23/0

9/76

07/1

0/76

21/1

0/76

04/1

1/76

18/1

1/76

02/1

2/76

16/1

2/76

30/1

2/76

River Tamar at Gunnislake

m3/s

0.1

1

10

100

1000

01/0

1/76

15/0

1/76

29/0

1/76

12/0

2/76

26/0

2/76

11/0

3/76

25/0

3/76

08/0

4/76

22/0

4/76

06/0

5/76

20/0

5/76

03/0

6/76

17/0

6/76

01/0

7/76

15/0

7/76

29/0

7/76

12/0

8/76

26/0

8/76

09/0

9/76

23/0

9/76

07/1

0/76

21/1

0/76

04/1

1/76

18/1

1/76

02/1

2/76

16/1

2/76

30/1

2/76

River Tamar at Gunnislake

m3/s

UKCIP02, medium emissions 2030s

This work is currently being updated under

Project SC090016 “Future River Flows and

Groundwater Levels” jointly funded by

UKWIR/EA/Defra/CEH/WHS/BGS

Sunday Times magazine 11.3.2007

Rising sea levels

• Gradual increase in the volume

of the sea due to melting of the

polar ice caps and the thermal

expansion of water

• Intense areas of low pressure

and high winds piling sea water

onto the shore (a surge)

• Melting of the Greenland ice

sheet would raise global sea

levels by 7m

Sources: Dacca University; Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Effects of sea level rise in Bangladesh

• 1953 – 5.6m North Sea surge: 1,835 died in Holland, England and Belgium

• 1973 – 5.5m Bay of Bengal surge: 300,000 died in Bangladesh

• flooding and loss of life

• saline intrusion polluting aquifers

Consequences of rising sea levels

• reduction in freshwater available to drink

• ruinous effects on the ecosystem

• Climate change

• Consequences of climate change

Climate change adaptation in SWW

and beyond

• Climate change

• Consequences of climate change

• Assessment of climate change risk

Climate change adaptation in SWW

and beyond

• Government is committed to ensuring that action is

being taken to adapt to climate change

• Climate Change Act 2008 introduced a new power for

the Secretary of State to direct a "reporting authority"

to prepare reports

• Reporting authorities are organisations with functions

of a public nature and statutory undertakers

• SWW submitted its report on 31st January 2011

The Climate Change Adaptation Reporting

Power

1. Functions impacted by Climate Change

2. Approach

3. Summary of risks which affect functions,

mission, aims and objectives

4. Actions proposed to address risks

5. Uncertainties and assumptions

6. Barriers to adaptation and interdependencies

7. Monitoring and evaluation

Prescribed contents of the reports

Climate change adaptation tool

Drought (lower

rainfall)

Temperature

change

Floods (higher

rainfall)

Sea level

increase

Water resources

Water treatment

Water networks

Waste water

treatment

Waste water

networks

Sludge

Other services

Asset groups

Climate

variables

Risk assessment - 1

Each asset group is subdivided eg

Water Resources

• Storage reservoirs

• Aqueducts

• Boreholes

• Source pumping stations

• Raw water pipelines

• Intake pumping stations

• etc

Risk assessment - 2

• Assessment carried out for each sub-asset group

• Against each climate change variable eg flood, drought etc

• For the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s

• Both before and after adaptive actions to produce residual risks

• Quantitative analysis if possible; if not, use expert judgement

Risklikelihood level of consequence

1 Unlikely

2 Fairly likely

3 Very Likely

1 Low impact

2 Medium impact

3 High impact

Values

between

1 and 9

Level of consequence

Asset Level 2: Water resources1 - Low impact resulting in possible intermittent impact on service to customers or damage to assets requiring some repair

or maintenance

2 - Medium impact causing minor loss of service to some customers or damage to assets (eg hosepipe ban, flooding of

assets) requiring significant maintenance or replacement work and a review of investment priorities

In the original MWH work impacts were colour coded as follows: Score 4 = Red (HIGHEST) Score 3 = Purple Score 2 = Blue Score 1 =

Black (LOWEST)

3 - High impact causing major loss of service to customers, significant health & safety issues or damage to assets (eg

treatment works unable to function, flooding or several hundred properties)

Level of likelihood

1 - Unlikely the consequence for service will occur in the 2020s

2 - Fairly likely the consequence for service will occur in the 2020s

3 - Very likely the consequence for service will occur in the 2020s

2020s

ASSET LEVEL

3

CLIMATE

VARIABLE

MH

W IM

PA

CT

RE

F.

DESCRIPTIONPRIMARY IMPACT OF

CLIMATE VARIABLE

POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON

ORGANISATION AND

STAKEHOLDERS

Threshold above

which this impact

starts to become an

issue

MW

H Im

pac

t sco

re

Consequence for service

COMPANY'S ADAPTIVE ACTIONS

Company's residual risk

COMPANY'S PROPOSED ACTION TO

MITIGATE RESIDUAL IMPACTS

Lev

el o

f

con

seq

uen

ce

Lev

el o

f li

keli

ho

od

Lev

el o

f ri

sk

Lev

el o

f

con

seq

uen

ce

Lev

el o

f li

keli

ho

od

Lev

el o

f ri

sk

All Water

Resources

DROUGHT D1 Reduced available supply causes political

pressure for essential water users, e.g

schools and hospitals, and for other

customers reduces security of supply

Reduced available supply Reduced security of supply 3

2 2 4

Water resources plan includes

assessment of demand changes

2 1 2

Continue demand planning and

using WR plan

All Water

Resources

DROUGHT D2 Daily & peak demand for 'garden' watering

increases, causing a reduction in

security of supply

Higher daily & peak demand

for garden watering,

Reduced security of supply 3

2 2 4 Water resource plan includes a

CC factor

2 1 2 Continue monitoring and using

WR plan

All Water

Resources

DROUGHT D3 Intake, borehole pump and reservoir draw-

off levels do not match reduced levels

causing service failure

Intake, borehole pump and

reservoir draw-off levels do

not match reduced levels

Service failure 3

3 1 3 Water resource plan includes a

CC factor

3 1 3Continue monitoring and using

WR plan, consider engineering

solution to move draw offs

All Water

Resources

DROUGHT D4 Lower river yields, borehole yields or

reduced water quality lead to abstraction

licences being reduced or removed,

causing a reduction in security of

supply

Lower river & borehole

yields or reduced water

quality

Abstraction licences

reduced or removed,

reducing security of supply

3

2 2 4

Water resource plan includes a

CC factor

2 1 2

Continue monitoring and using

WR plan

All Water

Resources

DROUGHT D5 Increased customer sensitivity to

possibility of service failure impacts

security of supply.

Drier conditions Reduced security of supply 3

2 2 4 Water resource plan includes a

CC factor

2 1 2 Continue monitoring and using

WR plan

Storage

Reservoirs &

Aqueducts

DROUGHT D6 Lower river flows reduce yields and hence

increased demand on existing storage,

and causes a reduction in security of

supply

Lower river flows Reduced security of supply 3

2 2 4Water resource plan includes a

CC factor

2 1 2Continue monitoring and using

WR plan

Boreholes /

source pumping

stations

DROUGHT D7 Lower groundwater levels reduce borehole

yields and causes a reduction in security

of supply

Lower groundwater levels Reduced security of supply 3

2 1 2Water resource plan includes a

CC factor

2 1 2Continue monitoring and using

WR plan

Raw water

pipelines

DROUGHT D8 Lower flow rates cause deposition leading

to reduced raw water quality

Lower flow rates Reduced raw water quality 3

2 1 2 WTW process will cope with

increased solids level

2 1 2 monitor raw water quality on entry

to works

Climate change adaptation tool

Approximately 3,400 cells were

filled in for the water service

Water service risks for SWW

Asset Primary impact of

climate variable

Potential impacts on

organisation and stakeholders

Water resources Direct asset flooding Asset loss and service failure

Water resources More frequent and power

supply flooding

Power outages and service

failure

Water resources Lower river & borehole

yields & reduced water

quality

Service failure

Water treatment More frequent and power

supply flooding

Asset loss and service failure

Water treatment Higher storm intensity Service failure

Interdependencies

• We do not operate in isolation but are dependent

on others:

- Energy suppliers

- International supply chain

- Transport links

- Information and communication technology

• We must have confidence that these externalities

are robust in the face of projected climate change

• Climate change

• Consequences of climate change

• Assessment of climate change risk

Climate change adaptation in SWW

and beyond

• Climate change

• Consequences of climate change

• Assessment of climate change risk

• Investment in climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation in SWW

and beyond

Water security flood protection investment

TORBAY

EXETER

NEWTON

ABBOT

ILFRACOMBE

PLYMOUTH

EXMOUTH

HONITON

LYME REGIS

SIDMOUTH

PENZANCE

CAMBORNE

REDRUTH

NEWQUAY

TRURO

FALMOUTH

ST AUSTELL

BODMIN

OKEHAMPTON

BUDE

TORRINGTON

BARNSTAPLE

BIDEFORD

TIVERTON

CREDITON

Roadford

Meldon

Upper Tamar Lake

SladeWistlandpound

Wimbleball

KTTFernworthy

Avon

Venford

Burrator

Crowdy

SiblybackColliford

Porth

Stithians

Argal

Drift

R.Lyd

LAUNCESTON

Trenear Intake

Restormel Intake

Gunnislake Intake

Avon Treated Water Reservoir

Littlehempston WTW

Pynes WTW

Northbridge Intake

Bolham Leat

Fatherford Booster Pump

Site

Worst

flood

Completion

date Adaptation measures

Littlehempston

WTW

Tidal 2014-15 Dart intake: raise controls & seal low

openings

Ranney 1: Flood embankment

Ranney 2: Flood embankment & flood

gate

Northbridge intake Fluvial 2012-13 Raise controls and seal low level

openings. Raise access road.

Restormel intake Fluvial 2012-13 Raise controls

Trenear intake Fluvial 2014-15 Flood embankment and sluice gates

Bolham Leat Fluvial 2012-13 Flood embankment

Gunnislake intake Fluvial 2012-13 Replace sluice gates and install auto

shutdown

Avon treated

water reservoir

Pluvial 2014-15 Reinforces hedge and seam manholes

Pynes WTW Fluvial 2011-12 Flood embankment, sheet pile wall and

sluice gates. Raise access road. Seal

surface water drainage

Fatherford

Booster Pump

Fluvial 2012-13 Seal all external manholes

• Cost £2.13m

• Design standard:

1 in 100 year flood +

climate change +

100mm freeboard

• Secures supplies to

110,000 customers

Pynes flood

protection scheme

• the area was flooded when a

cyclone struck in 2009 and the

pond became contaminated by

flood water

• increasingly strong cyclones

have caused the banks of the

freshwater pond to be regularly

over-topped

• people are very aware of, and

worried by, climate change

• they talk of rainfall patterns

becoming more erratic

• most of the local groundwater is

already saline

Shiltala flood

protection scheme

• 128 families have worked

together on the improvements

• Villagers are hacking out a clay

marl material to raise the banks

Raising the banks

• A brick Pond Sand Filter is also

under construction

• A hand pump will allow water to

be transferred to the filter.

Community project

EXETER

PLYMOUTHNEWQUAY

TRURO

ST AUSTELL

BODMIN

OKEHAMPTON

LAUNCESTON

BARNSTAPLE

BIDEFORD

TIVERTON

The SWW Water Resources System

Wimbleball

Roadford

Colliford

• 3 strategic river regulating reservoirs

• 14 smaller local reservoirs

• 10% groundwater supplies

Demand

forecast

Climate

change

Leakage

Household

Non-

household

Supply

forecast

Climate

change

Competition

Current

supply

Imports

& exports

Reductions in

DO (inc WQ)

Headroom

Supply

demand

balance:

dry year

Option

identification

Demand

side

Supply

side

Other

companies

Surplus/

deficit

Options

appraisal

&

decisions

Feasible

options

list

WATER

RESOURCES

MANAGEMENT

PLAN

The water resources

planning process

Park Lake

• an “exemplar of post-mining regeneration”

• high elevation, allowing water to gravitate into distribution

• high water quality, therefore little treatment required

• sustainable site management

Park Lake floating intake

• Stannon?

• No, Bangladesh

• Water supply lagoon with

floating intake

Treatment works (slow sand filter) & pumping station

Reproduced by permission of Imerys

Sustainability

To be sustainable requires:

• Leakage control

• Water efficiency

• Support for initiatives like the

Imerys Eco-town

National response to climate change

Bangladesh UK

National Adaptation Programme of Action (2005) UK Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2012)

Integrating climate change adaptation into policies,

planning and design for national & local government

and industry

Inclusion of climate change issues in the curriculum

of educational institutions

Promotion of research on drought, flood and saline

tolerant varieties of crops

Increasing awareness of climate change and

adaptation to vulnerable communities

Regional Climate change partnerships

such as ClimateSW

Developing new agricultural practices

Construction of flood shelters and information centres

• Climate change

• Consequences of climate change

• Assessment of climate change risk

• Investment in climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation in SWW

and beyond

• Climate change

• Consequences of climate change

• Assessment of climate change risk

• Investment in climate change adaptation

• Conclusions

Climate change adaptation in SWW

and beyond

Conclusions

• Climate change is just one risk amongst many that we

face

• Our greatest vulnerability is to flooding

• Our interdependencies are very important

• Poverty and geography make Bangladesh particularly

vulnerable to climate change

• People in Bangladesh don’t need to be convinced

about climate change - they’ve seen it happening

• We need to continue to plan and invest for climate

change risk even if some people are still sceptical