NCSX

NCSX Project UpdateHutch Neilson, Project Manager

for the NCSX Team

Princeton Plasma Physics LaboratoryOak Ridge National Laboratory

Briefing for Office of Fusion Energy SciencesJune 24, 2005

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NCSX

MCWF Delivery Delays Will Impact the FY-05 Joule Target But Not CD-4 (July, 2009)

• Vendor’s best case forecast: MCWF#1 will ship July 30 (an 11-week slip).

• Manufacturing process development requirements were under-estimated by the vendors. Because of this, the schedule for MCWF#1 has grown:

– 2 weeks in pattern-making, 4 weeks in casting, 5 weeks (projected) in machining.

• Machining issues encountered so far have been resolved and should not recur.– The solutions that were found apply to all remaining units.

– Vendor believes their original 12 week projection still holds for remaining castings.

• Pattern and casting delays have not recurred.– Pattern #2 has now been produced, #3 (the last) has been started.

– Castings are now being poured near the rate planned (every 3 weeks). 4 castings have been poured.

• Vendor estimate of the remaining time to complete MCWF#1 is probably optimistic. A factor of 2 underestimate of remaining work would put delivery in mid-September, but…

• The baseline schedule is robust to delays in MCWF production:– MCWF#1 could slip to Sept. 30 without impacting CD-4 or schedule float (5 months).

– Machining time on remaining units could grow to 20 weeks, also with no impact.

• We will not complete the FY05 Joule Target on schedule (Sept. 30).– By Sept. 30, winding activities will be under way on modular coil #1.

– We will complete winding the first coil (the Joule target) before Dec. 31.

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NCSX

MCWF Delivery Is Delayed By Unexpected Growth in Non-Recurring Vendor Development Activities

• Delays were experienced in each phase.

– 2 weeks delay in producing the first pattern. Patterns now well off critical path.

– 4 weeks in the casting phase.

o Weld upgrades and re-inspection took more time than expected.

o Cause was determined and corrected by pattern modifications.

o We are now seeing shorter lead times on subsequent castings.

12 weeks for #2 vs. 16 weeks for #1. Castings #3 & #4 are poured and in-process.

– 5 weeks in the machining phase.

o Development of optimum machining strategies took more time than expected.

o Use of the MCWF prototype for machining development has partially mitigated the

schedule impact.

• Although they under-estimated the development requirements, the vendors

have used their resources proactively to mitigate schedule risks.

• High quality standards are being maintained.

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NCSXMCWF #1 Casting Problems Have Not Recurred

• Pattern modifications after #1 were successful.

– Post-pour processing time on casting #2 (ready to

ship from foundry) was 3 weeks less than #1.

– #2 was produced in 12 weeks, per original plan.

• Castings are now being poured near the rate

required to support their baseline delivery

schedule. Those with the tightest schedule

requirements (first 4) have already been poured.

• Pour dates:

#1 12/20/04

#2 4/15/05

#3 5/24/05

#4 6/10/05

#5 7/8/05 (F)

F = forecast

16 weeks

6 weeks

3 weeks

4 weeks (F)

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NCSX• Weeks 1-3. Initial roughing went well.

• Weeks 4-6. Optimized deep “plunge

cutting” roughing machining.

– Changes were made to reduce chatter

and vibration which were initially

encountered.

o Smaller machining heads used to permit

better access and reduce cutting tool

extension.

o Machining fixtures were stiffened.

o Computer Aided Machining (CAM)

variables including tool size, tool path

and feed rate, rpm’s, were optimized.

– Result: roughing got back on track with

better performance than originally

planned.

– Solution will benefit remaining units.

Machining Process Optimization on MCWF#1 Will Benefit Remaining Units

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NCSX• Weeks 7-8: Poloidal break machining completed.

– Operation went very well; no spring back or casting

deformation was encountered.

• Week 8. Contour milling process optimized.

– Machining rate greatly improved by using a new type of

machining cutter.

– Computer Aided Machining (CAM) variables including tool

size, tool path and feed rate, rpm’s. were optimized.

This Experience and Investment in OptimizationWill Benefit All Remaining Units.

Poloidal Break Machining Was Easy.Contour Machining Has Been Optimized.

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NCSX

Major Tool Is Working to Mitigate Schedule Risks in the Remaining Operations

• 3 axis machining operations on MCWF#1 – to be completed by July 8.

• In parallel, the prototype is being used to develop the 5 axis and finish machining operations.– Using the prototype in this way will: improve the efficiency of these final

operations, verify the CAM program, and reduce risks of machining errors.

• 5 axis and finish machining operations – to be completed by July 19.

• Final tests (liquid penetrant examination; x-ray inspection; magnetic permeability) and inspections (surface finish; dimensions) – to be completed by July 29.– NCSX engineers, QA specialists, and DCMA specialists will be on site to assure

that any issues which develop can be quickly addressed.

– Dimensional inspection methodology, requirements, and reporting will be discussed in on-site meeting next week to assure common vision.

– NCSX and EIO have started compiling the MCWF#1 documentation package to assure that no issues will remain to be resolved which may impact shipping.

o Materials test data show that properties meet and may exceed requirements.

• Ship – by July 30.

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NCSX

Vendor Estimate to Complete MCWF#1 is Probably Optimistic But Project Can Accommodate More Delay

• Vendor’s July 30 delivery forecast is their best case scenario.

Incorporates lessons learned to date, but the potential for further

surprises and delays cannot be excluded.

– 5-axis machining operations are new ground. Prototype development should

reduce, but may not eliminate, schedule risks.

– Inspection and testing could stretch out if there are issues requiring analysis

or re-work.

• The time to complete remaining work could double, delaying delivery to

mid-September.

• The project baseline could accommodate this much delay, or more.

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NCSXThe MCWF Plan Supports the Project Schedule

• In re-planning the project to accommodate reduced funding, we built in some float between EIO’s MCWF delivery milestones and the project’s.

• We did not rebaseline the MCWF contract. They are working to get back to the original schedule.

• EIO forecasts that MCWF #1 through #6 will be delayed by 11, 11, 9, 7, 6, and 5 weeks relative to the contract baseline.

– Patterns: 2 of 3 have been fabricated. #3 has been started and is well off critical path.

– Casting: #2 was produced within the 12-week estimate. Castings are being poured at the rate needed to support the schedule.

– Machining: Major Tool and EIO stand by the 12-week estimate for remaining units. Some new issues are expected on the first of each type, but the additional development time needed on #1 is not expected to recur.

To gain confidence, we will work with vendor to better understand the basis for their estimates and increase visibility of intermediate milestones. Site visit next week.

• Dramatic schedule improvements in repeated engineering tasks are normal:– Machining of W7X coil cases: 1200 hrs. on #1, 400 hrs. after 4-5. (4:1 improvement)– Winding of NCSX twisted racetrack coil: 1/2 turn/day at start, 2 turns/day at finish (4:1)– Winding of NSTX PF1a: first coil 11 weeks, second coil 5 weeks (2:1)– Diamond Wire Cutting in TFTR D&D: first cut 4 weeks, last cut 1 week (4:1).

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NCSXWinding Form Delivery Schedule

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NCSX

Project Schedule Basis and Risk Mitigation

• Basis for Winding Operations Baseline Plan

– First coil will take 50% longer than subsequent coils.

– 2 winding stations with 3 teams. Third team dedicated to 2nd shift on first 10 coils

– All shifts 5 days/week

– Conductor installation (70% of winding operations) assumes 10 hour days

• Risk mitigation flexibilities

– Continue 2nd shift operations for last 8 coils

– Add a fourth winding team providing capability to wind two coils on 2 shifts

– Additional overtime

– Saturday and Sunday work

Conclusion

– Unexpected MCWF delivery delays were an identified risk that was mitigated in

our planning.

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NCSXHistory and Resolution of the FY-05 Joule Performance Target

“Award, through a competitive process, production contracts for the NCSX

Modular Coil Winding Forms, Conductor, and Vacuum Vessel. Complete winding

of the first Modular Coil.”

History

• Dec. 15, 2003. Project and DOE agreed on the FY-05 target in its present form.

– MCWF was in final design. Project’s estimated MCWF#1 delivery date was Dec., 2004.

• Sept. 10, 2004. Project informed DOE that the FY-05 target was at risk.

– At this point we had received and agreed to EIO's contract proposal in which the MCWF#1 delivery

would be May 15, 2005.

• Apr. 19, 2005. Project reported to DOE that MCWF#1 would slip to June 24. FY-05 target at

increased risk.

Resolution

• The three production contracts listed in the Joule target have been awarded.

• The conductor will be wound on the first coil by the end of December.

– Includes allowance for MCWF delivery delay past vendor forecast date, and uses winding estimate

based on twisted racetrack R&D.

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NCSXCost Risks Associated With MCWF Delays

• MCWF contract is fixed price. Vendor has given no indications of cost escalation.

However

• The current experience with the first machining could indicate that that the vendor’s cost was

underestimated.

• What if the vendor submitted a claim to recover cost growth? How much might it be?

– Suppose the 12 week machining time grows to 20 weeks for #1 and 16 weeks average

for the remainder, a 33% increase.

– At $155k per casting for machining this could mean approx. $920k risk.

– This would be offset by the $637k set-aside by the project as contingency on the

remaining MCWF work. (Total remaining contingency is $12.8M.)

– Estimated net cost exposure could be $284k.

Conclusion

– Unforeseen cost growth would be largely mitigated by contingency already set-

aside.

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Lab resources will still be usedeffectively with the MCWF delay

• Ample NCSX work is available.– Preparation of modular coil winding parts.– Completion of modifications to the Coil Manufacturing

Facility– Preparation of the Test Cell for Field Period Assembly

• Ample work is available on other PPPL projects.• Vacation time will be re-scheduled.

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Progress in Coil Winding Preparations

Construction of the TF Winding Station is underway. The winding table has been installed.

The Coil Test Facility has been completed. The Planar Racetrack Coil is being installed as a dummy load.

Twisted Racetrack Coil should be completed this week. Coil is potted. Clamps are being preloaded and cooling manifolds are being installed.

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NCSX

Summary

• MCWF#1 delivery has slipped.

– Vendor forecasts July 30 as best case.

• We can accommodate a delay to Sept. 30 without impacting

project critical path and CD-4 date.

• We can accommodate a stretchout from 12 to 20 weeks in the

machining phase of remaining winding forms.

• Delays are due to first-unit development issues and are not

expected to recur.

– Patterns are nearly done.

– Casting problems have not recurred.

– Machining solutions apply to remaining units.

• Project cost and schedule are not at risk.