Agenda Part 1 - Overview of North County IndicatorsWhat are the North County Indicators and why do they matter?

Part 2 - State of North County (Pre-CV19)What can we learn about the State of North County before COVID-19?

Part 3 - What’s Next for North County (Post-CV19)How can North County recover stronger from COVID-19?

Part 1An Overview of the North County Indicators (NCI)

What are the North County

Indicators (NCI)?

NCI is a quantitative and holistic set of metrics that describe North County’s economy.

Originally North County Prospects, NCI has evolved from 2013 into 47 metrics and 76 datasets that represent five key components of the North County Economy;

• People

• Economy

• Innovation

• Place

• Education

Map of North County San Diego’s North County, which includes 9 cities and considerable unincorporated areas within the County

Inland includes:San Marcos

EscondidoFallbrook

Palomar MountainBorrego Springs

Central Inland includes:Poway

RamonaJulian

Coast includes:Camp PendletonCarlsbadOceansideVista

Central Coast includes:Del MarEncinitas

Five Key Components

People The 11 People indicators provide an understanding North County’s evolving population, demographics, and household income.

Economy These 7 Economy indicators provide a comprehensive picture of the region’s employment, industry clusters, and wages.

Innovation The 7 Innovation indicators track business births and deaths, R&D investments, and venture capital funding.

Education These 11 Education indicators highlight the population’s educational attainment and K-12 metrics ranging from CAASP scores to dropout rates.

Place These 11 Place indicators provide data on North County’s housing, transportation, commercial real estate, and water usage.

Part 2State of North County (Pre-CV19)

High Concentration

Clusters are Key to Growth

Leading Industries• High wage & High Concentration industries include:Defense, Aerospace, Transportation, & Manufacturing (DATM), & Information & Communication Technologies (ICT) • Lower wage & High Concentration industries include:Agriculture & Food and Tourism, Hospitality & Recreation

Tiered Employment• Tier 1 jobs have grown by 26% from 2009 through 2019• Tier 2 employment in North County has grown 8% • Tier 3 jobs have grown by 19% over the same time period

High-Concentration

Industry Clusters

Biotechnology & Biomedical Devices

Information & Communication Technologies

Building and Design

Defense, Aerospace & Transportation Manufacturing

Tourism, Hospitality & Recreation

Agriculture & Food

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

-15% 5% 25% 45% 65% 85% 105% 125% 145% 165%

Avg.

Ann

ual E

arni

ngs (

2019

)

Employment Growth (2014-2019)

*Size of bubble is relative to the number of jobs in 2019

Job Growth by Quality

2009 - 2019

26%

8%

19%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3

North County’s K-12

Educational System Scores

High Marks

• As a region North County schools were 41% to 25% higher than California Average for Math & English Language Arts Proficiency.

• Each of the four areas in North County scored above the state average for Math & English Language Arts. NC Central Coast and NC Central Inland were higher than comparable counties including Orange County & Santa Clara County.

• North County’s Annual College Degree Completions in STEM have increased by almost 200% from 2009 to 2018, more than three times faster than California’s increase in this metric.

43.8%

75.7%

40.1%

65.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

NC Coast NC Central Coast NC Inland NC Central Inland

State Average

CAASPP Math Proficiency

in North County

54.2%

80.5%

54.2%

72.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

NC Coast NC Central Coast NC Inland NC CentralInland

State Average

CAASPP English Language Arts

Proficiencyin North County

$10,500

$11,000

$11,500

$12,000

$12,500

$13,000

NC Coast NC Central Coast NC Inland NC Central Inland

State Average

Average Spending per

Student

Household Incomes were rising in North County where

they were needed most

Median annual household incomes were on the rise in North County. In the most recent data, NC Inland’s household income increased by 12% (lowest median income in NC) and NC Central Coast increased by 6% (highest median income in NC).

This reversed a trend that was identified in NCI’s 2019, of growing income disparities between areas of North County.

An Economically Diverse Population

19%

25%

31%

25%21%

29% 31%

20%

13%17%

29%

41%

14%

23%

35%

28%25%

29% 30%

16%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Less than $35,000 $35,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $149,999 $150,000 or more

North County (Total) NC Coastal NC Central Coast NC Central Inland NC Inland

Median Household Income in

North County

Part 3What’s Next for North County (Post-CV19)

Expand our regional capacity as a Research & Development hub for Science-Based Solutions

How does North County become a hub for solving emerging risk factors related to weather, seismic activity & pandemics?

1

Science-Based Innovation Ecosystem

Identify opportunities for Emerging Supply Chains

How does North County build upon its manufacturing muscle to strengthen its supply chain and provide opportunities for firms in the region?

2

North County Manufacturing

Employment

10%

5%

7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

North County Rest of San DiegoCounty

California

North County Manufacturing1. Aerospace products and parts manufacturing (~8,400

North County jobs)

2. Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical and Control instrument manufacturing (~7,800 North County jobs)

3. Communications equipment manufacturing (~5,000 North County jobs)

4. Medical equipment and supplies manufacturing (~4,500 North County jobs)

5. Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing (~3,500 North County jobs)

North County’s Largest

Manufacturing Segments by Employment

Examine & Invest in Regional Economic ResiliencyHow can North County a) resist or minimize the economic

impact of a “shock event”, and

b) recover quickly from such an event?

3

1. Industry Cluster Diversification• Connectivity to a broad array of customers

& diverse sources of income• A real strength of North County’s economy

2. Household-level Financial Stability• Measured by household level debt-to-

income ratio• A mixed measure for North County with

higher than average income, but considerable economic distress in many North County communities in a high-cost environment

Key Categories for Assessing

Regionals Economic

Resilience I

3. Economic agility, entrepreneurship, and innovation• Ability to create new businesses, products and/or

services in response to shocks or disruptions• This could be a strength of North County but will

require more data and analysis for a confident assessment.

4. Regional infrastructure & preparedness for volatile weather events, pandemics & seismic activityInfrastructure Assessment should include;

• Healthcare• Bandwidth• Electrical Grid• Transportation• Water

Key Categories for Assessing

Regionals Economic

Resilience II

Rebuild & Strengthen the Tourism & Hospitality Ecosystem

How can North County effectively respond to the considerable impact CV-19 has had on Tourism, Hospitality & Recreation (THR)?

4

North County Manufacturing1. Many of the region’s lowest paid workers are

in THR and find themselves out of work

2. Many of the region’s youth develop valuable non-technical skills in their first job in THR

3. Generates revenue for City’s through TOT & Visitor’s Sales Tax

4. The industry plays a valuable role in the region’s quality of life

5. Also the THR cluster in North County under threat from rising sea levels and the impact that has on disappearing beaches

Regional Implications &

Considerations for the Decline in

Tourism & Hospitality

Invest in Education & Upskilling

How can North County protect one of its most valuable resources while supporting residents who will need to transition from one employment pathway to another?

5

1. Increase local investment in the region’s high-performing K-12 system, a key component in attracting regional talent

2. Facilitate collaboration between schools and districts as they support and provide additional resources for teachers adapting to new learning environments & strategies

3. Connect Universities, Colleges and K-12 with industry leaders to better understand the changing skills needed for the new world of work

Strategies for North County’s

Educational Ecosystem

Create Economic Opportunity for Populations that have not flourished

How does North County provide economic opportunity for all its residents?

6

Poverty Rate Among All Residents

in North County

Increase Availability of Housing While Maintaining North County’s High Quality of Life

How can North County meet its myriad of housing needs for the workforce, the homeless, and attracting entrepreneurs & talent

7

Josh WilliamsPresident and Principal Researcher

jwilliams@bwresearch.comwww.bwresearch.com

To get involved in North County COVID-19 Solutions - go towww.nceconomicsummit.org