NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 1 Hydrometeorological Prediction...
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 1 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov) Vision, mission, & roles Partners & customers Products & services Forecast accuracy & value added by HPC forecasters Major needs FY09 initiatives Second Mini-Workshop on Hydrometeorological Products, Services, and Supporting Research December 10, 2008 Jim Hoke Director, HPC
Transcript of NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 1 Hydrometeorological Prediction...
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner1
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
(www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
Vision, mission, & roles Partners & customers Products & services Forecast accuracy & value
added by HPC forecasters Major needs FY09 initiatives
Second Mini-Workshop on Hydrometeorological Products, Services,
and Supporting ResearchDecember 10, 2008 Jim Hoke
Director, HPC
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner2
HPC’s Vision & Mission
Mission statement: to provide 1) forecast, guidance, and analysis products and services in support of the daily forecasting activities of the NWS and its customers, and 2) tailored weather support to other government agencies in emergency and special situations.
Vision statement:to be recognized by the NWS field offices and other forecast groups as a center of excellence for:
– facilitating collaboration
– heavy precipitation forecasting
– winter weather forecasting
– medium-range forecasting
– real-time numerical model diagnostics & interpretation
– surface analysis
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner3
HPC: a resource to field forecasters, other partners, and
customers
• starting point
• second opinion
• focusing mechanism
• unifying influence
• emergency backup
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HPC’s Partners & Customers
NWS field offices: WFOs, RFCs, CWSUs
other NCEP centers: TPC, SPC, AWC, OPC, EMC, NCO, CPC
federal agencies: DHS/FEMA, USACE, FAA, NTSB, DoD, NASA, USBR, USAID, USTDA, EPA, White House
state agencies: water resources, flood management, emergency services
media: TV, radio, newspapers, wire services, Internet services
private sector: data vendors, forecast services, utilities, forensics, retailers, researchers
aviation: general aviation and others
academic community: atmospheric sciences and other departments
international: foreign met services, media, civil defense, travelers
general public: analysis & forecast products, visits
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HPC’s Products and Services
quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), excessive rainfall, river flood outlook, and heavy ice & snow guidance
medium-range guidance model diagnostic discussions & associated graphics tools surface analyses &
Daily Weather Map basic weather forecasts So. American & Caribbean
prognostic discussions and training
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Examples of HPC’s Emergency & Special Products and Services
Hurricane Liaison Team briefings Precipitation statements in TPC Public Advisories Tropical cyclone prediction at days 6 & 7 Backup to NHC’s
hurricane program Special teleconferences
for major flooding events Media interviews &
press conferences- Winter storms- Land-falling
hurricanes
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HPC QPF verification1-inch threat score
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HPC QPF verification vs. the modelsDay 1, 1 inch
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Major Needs
More accurate quantitative precipitation estimation Denser, more timely and accurate snowfall
observations More accurate numerical model forecasts, especially
for precipitation Better tools for forecasting convective precipitation More advanced forecaster tools for using ensemble
model output Greater use of precipitation forecaster input into
probabilistic river forecast models Additional forecasters to produce forecasts for
Alaska, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Guam, and other OCONUS locations
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Initiatives in FY2009
Probabilistic QPF– Provides a probability distribution for precipitation
– Provides likelihood of various precipitation thresholds
– Provides indication of confidence
QPF at 6-h intervals at days 4-5
Alaska medium-range desk
HPC Hydrometeorological Testbed
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Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
(www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
Vision, mission, & roles Partners & customers Products & services Forecast accuracy & value
added by HPC forecasters Major needs FY09 initiatives
Second Mini-Workshop on Hydrometeorological Products, Services,
and Supporting ResearchDecember 10, 2008 Jim Hoke
Director, HPC
