Natural Gas Net-Export Trends A graphical review of the historical data. Jonathan Callahan Mazama...
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Transcript of Natural Gas Net-Export Trends A graphical review of the historical data. Jonathan Callahan Mazama...
Natural Gas Net-Export Trends
A graphical review of the historical data.
Jonathan CallahanMazama Science
MAZAMA SCIENCE
Data – Information – Knowledge
ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 2
Historical Data has Advantages
• Production and consumption data are freely available:BP Statistical Review, EIA, IEA
• Comparison between datasets gives an idea of the error bars.
• No assumptions are needed.
• Historical time series map out trends – zeroth order predictions.
Historical data capture the Human Story:discoveries, accidents, wars, politics, economics, technology, environmental issues, etc.
Mazama Science 3ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010
Telling Stories with Pictures
• Humans communicate by telling stories.
• Pictures help us tell those stories.
• Good data graphics allow us to “tell stories” with data.
ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 4
UK – Historical Gas Production
• 1970's – rising
• 1980's – stable
• 1990's – rapid rise
• 2000's – rapid fall
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UK – Consumption
• 1970's – rising
• 1980's – slight increase
• 1990's – rising
• 2000's – slight decline
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UK – Net Exports
• 1970's – self sufficient
• 1980's – stable imports
• 1990's – declining imports
• 2000's – increasing imports
ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 7
A Sense of History
“A careful reading of history clearly demonstrates ...that people don't read history carefully.”
• Understanding Net Export trends means understanding productionand consumption trends.
• Geology and technology set limits on production.
• But actual production and consumption depend on economics, politics and cultural values – human factors.
• Historical curiosity can help explain (and predict) a lot.
“History doesn't repeat but she sure rhymes a lot.”
ASPO Peak OIl Conference, Washington, DC -- October 07, 2010Mazama Science 8
Data-driven story: Privatization vs. Polder
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British policy emphasized “free market”.
(1) 1959 – first LNG from LA
(2) 1963 – LNG from Algeria
(3) 1967 – first North Sea gas
(4) 1986 – privatization (Gas Act)
(5) 1996 – market competition
(6) 2000 – peak production
(7) 2004 – net importer
(8) 2010 – Gas Balancing Alert
2 3
4
5
78
6
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Dutch policy emphasized “small fields” first.
Same geology, different policies → different outcomes.
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What does “peak production” look like?
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Romania's decline from peak has been steady.
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Italy's production decline has been gradual.
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Is Argentina at peak production?
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What about “peak exports” – the green bit?
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Increased consumption can cause peak exports.
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Decreased production can cause peak exports.
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Is Indonesia at peak exports?
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International Pipelines vs. LNG
Pipelines
• Planning and construction take years
• International cooperation
• Right-Of-Way issues
• Constant delivery
• Transit nations
• Partners are locked in
LNG
• Planning and construction take months
• National decision
• Coastal access required
• Intermittent delivery
• High seas
• Open market
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Largest Net-Exporting Regions in 2008
#1 Russia 17 Bcf/day
#2 North Sea 10 Bcf/day
#3 North Africa 8 Bcf/day
#4 SE Asia 7 Bcf/day
#5 Canada 6 Bcf/day
#6 Central Asia 6 Bcf/day
#7 Middle East 5 Bcf/day
#8 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 Bcf/day
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Russian exports have remained steady.
• Huge reserves
• High levels of consumption
• Declining population
• Europe's biggest supplier
• Pipeline control battles
• 2012 Nord Stream pipeline
• 2015? South Stream pipeline
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North Sea exports are expected to decline.
• Norway is ~80% of net-exports
• Very good data
• Lack of new discoveries
• Using latest technology
• Peak anticipated this decade
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North African exports are growing.
• Algeria is ~60% of net-exports
• Huge reserves
• Population growth
• Modern development
• Higher levels of consumption
• Existing trans-med pipelines
• Existing LNG plants
• 2010 Medgaz pipeline
• 2011 new LNG plants and vessels
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SE Asian exports appear to have peaked.
• Developing economies
• Past peak oil production
• Major coal users
• Close to huge LNG importers
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Central Asian exports are growing.
• Huge reserves in Turkmenistan
• Landlocked region
• Existing Russian pipelines
• 2010 China-Turkmen pipeline
• 2015? Nabucco pipeline
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Middle Eastern exports have peaked.
• Huge reserves
• Population growth
• Modern development
• Higher levels of consumption
• Increased desalination
• Oil fired power plants
• Regular power crises
• GCC power grid
• Petrochemical industry
• New pipelines and LNG terminals
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Recognizing Patterns
Reviewing historical trends leads to the following realizations:
• Production peaks can be sharp or very broad.
• Production is still rising in many countries.
• National consumption often follows production upward.
• Consumption can increase very rapidly.
• Consumption levels are “sticky” –decreases are strongly correlated with economic hardship.
• Pipelines and LNG pose different energy security issues.
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Factors affecting Production Growth
• Geology (UK)
• Technology (US)
• Government regulation (Netherlands)
• Market access (Turkmenistan)
• Financing (Venezuela)
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Factors affecting Consumption Growth
• Gas displacing coal due to environmental concern. (EU)
• Fuel switching as oil production declines. (Indonesia)
• Inadequate water supply requires desalination. (Saudi Arabia)
• Increased demand due to population growth. (Pakistan)
• Increased consumption from higher living standards. (China)
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Predictions for the next decade (2010-2019).
• Global production will increase dramatically.
• Norway will reach both peak production and peak exports.
• The Middle East will reach peak exports.
• SE Asia will reach peak net exports.
• South America (including Trinidad) will become a net importer.
• China will become a huge net importer.
• LNG will become increasingly expensive.
• The UK Gas Balancing Alert will be triggered multiple times.
• ¿European piped gas could become increasingly expensive?
• Russia and Central Asia will remain inscrutable!!
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For the Curious:http://mazamascience.com/Energy/GasTrends
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Story #2 – “Pipelines are not Fungible”
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Story #3 – “Population Matters”
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Story #3 – “Population Matters”
Global Coal
The importance of China.
Jonathan CallahanMazama Science
MAZAMA SCIENCE
Data – Information – Knowledge
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Who imports? Who exports?
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Coal is increasingly important in the energy mix.
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North America is mostly self-sufficient in coal.
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Coal lags behind oil and gas in total energy.
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South America (Colombia) exports a little coal.
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Coal isn't very important in South America.
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Europe & Eurasia are using less and less coal.
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Coal has been replaced by oil and gas.
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The Middle East uses very little coal (in Iran).
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Coal is insignificant in the energy mix.
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In Africa, only South Africa produces much coal.
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Energy mix reflects South Africa's dominance.
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Asian coal demand is large and rising.
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Coal completely dominates the energy mix.
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Asia accounts for 2/3 of world coal.
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Three Categories of Nations
• Australia and Indonesia are long term exporters.
• Japan, Korea and Taiwan are totally import dependent.
• China and India are largely self-sufficient.
• Asian coal supply and demand are currently in balance.
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Australia & Indonesia: major exporters
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Japan & S. Korea: major importers
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China & India: mostly self-sufficient
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Self-sufficient … but on different scales.
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Long-term Trends
• Australia and Indonesia have only ever exported coal.
• Japan, Korea, Taiwan and India have only ever imported.
• China, the biggest producer and biggest consumer has flipped back and forth between exports and imports.
• What is China's role in the next-export balance?
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China sits on the export/import fence.
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The Future is Uncertain – Three Scenarios:
1) Muddle Through:
Chinese production meets Chinese demand (with help from Mongolia?)Australia and Indonesia meet other Asian demand.
2) Coal Shortage:
China's coal-fired economic growth continues.Chinese demand outpaces Chinese production and they compete for imports.
3) Coal Glut:
China's economy stumbles, reducing demand.China exports coal to keep people employed.
It all depends on China.