Natural gas fuel switching and emissions implications...Switching range Natural gas Hard coal CO 2...
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IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Natural gas fuel switching and emissions implications Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, 22 October 2019 Dr. Peter Zeniewski, Energy Analyst
Transcript of Natural gas fuel switching and emissions implications...Switching range Natural gas Hard coal CO 2...
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Natural gas fuel switching and emissions
implications
Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, 22 October 2019
Dr. Peter Zeniewski, Energy Analyst
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The role of gas in today’s energy transitions + Methane Tracker
The Role of Gas report can be freely downloaded here:
https://www.iea.org/publications/roleofgas/
The Methane Tracker can be accessed here:
https://www.iea.org/weo/methane/database/
• The Role of Gas in Today's Energy Transitions,
released in July 2019, examines the role of fuel
switching, primarily from coal to natural gas, to
reduce CO2 emissions and air pollutants.
• Four case studies, covering the United States, the
European Union, China, and India, reveal the
various opportunities, hurdles and limits of fuel
switching as a way to address environmental
challenges.
• The IEA has also released a ‘Methane Tracker’
database, showing country-level estimates of
emissions sources along the full oil and natural gas
value chains, by resource type.
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
There have been major shifts in the coal-gas balance in key markets
Change in shares of coal and gas in primary energy in selected regions between 1990 and 2018
20%
40%
60%
80%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Share of gas
India
European UnionUnited States
China
1990
2018
2010
Share of coal
The shares and trajectories of gas use in major economies have varied widely in recent years.
Each region has its own price and policy dynamics that affect the outlook for gas.
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The global average emissions intensity of the coal supply chain is around 120
kgCO2/MWh, a third lower than that of natural gas; on a lifecycle basis, however, 98% of
gas is cleaner than coal
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500
Kg
CO
2-e
q/M
Wh
mtoe
Methane
Transport
Extraction and
processing
Extraction,
processing
and venting CO2
Spectrum of emissions arising from coal
LNG and pipeline
Methane
Coal emissions
Gas emissions
Comparing the indirect emissions from coal versus gas supply
and gas supply in 2018
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
In 2018, gas on average resulted in 33% fewer emissions than coal per unit of
heat used in industry and buildings, and 50% fewer emissions than coal per unit
of electricity generated.
A full lifecycle analysis shows emissions benefits of gas versus coal
Full lifecycle emissions intensity of global coal and gas supply, 2018
ElectricityHeat
Kg CO2-eq/MWh
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Coal Natural gas
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Coal-to-gas switching has abated over 500 million tonnes of CO2 since 2010. The
United States and China account for the majority of the gains from switching.
Switching has prevented faster growth in carbon emissions
CO₂ savings from coal-to-gas switching by region
0
200
400
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mt CO2
United States China Europe India Rest of world
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Natural gas use results in very few pollutant emissions & lower CO2 emissions
than other fossil fuels. China’s drive for cleaner air has been the main impetus for
gas growth.
Gas has been a key ally in China’s war on pollution
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2016 2017 2018
bcm/month
Monthly natural
gas consumption
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 μg/m³
Particulate matter
(right axis)
China monthly gas consumption vs air quality measurements for targeted cities
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Access to natural gas in China has greatly increased in recent years, underpinned by rising gas
consumption in China’s urban areas.
These maps are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the definition of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city, or area.
Percentage of the population with access to natural gas
20052017
Rural and urban coal and urban gas use in China
% of population with gas access
Gas use in China has seen rapid growth in recent years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2008 2016
mtoe
Urban coal
Urban gas
Rural coal
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
followed by growing international supply of LNG, gas plants in Europe are now cheaper than coal
0
10
20
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EUR/MWh
EUR/t CO2
Switching range
Natural gas
Hard coal
CO2
Higher carbon prices and rising LNG supply can support switching
Natural gas, coal and CO₂ prices in the European Union
From 2014-17, gas prices were not low enough to beat coal.
With the rise in the carbon price in 2018…
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
; ageing coal plants and spare
gas capacity give the US and Europe an edge, whereas younger, modern coal plants in Asia are harder to beat
Up to 1 200 Mt CO₂ could be abated worldwide by switching from coal to gas
The switching potential in power is large, if the price is right
Potential CO2 savings from coal-to-gas switching in the power sector at different gas prices, 2019
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9$/Mbtu
Northwest Europe
Other
EuropeWorld Mt CO2
Europe
United States
China
Rest of World
2019 average gas price
200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200
China (LNG)
(TTF)
United States (Henry Hub)
100 200
Europe
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Gas infrastructure is sized to meet significant peaks in demand
Comparing the monthly consumption of electricity and gas in the European Union
Significant demand for heat in buildings means gas plays a crucial seasonal balancing role
that is difficult to replicate using electricity.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 2016 2017 2018
TWh
Electricity
Natural gas
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
How high is the peak?
Seasonal gas demand in the EU in the New Policies Scenario, 2040
Peak demand in the EU is set to decline due to efficiency policies and the
electrification of household heat demand; this raises questions for infrastructure
operators
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
bcm
Peakload power
Baseload power
Buildings
Industry
Other
2017
2040:
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The outlook for European Union gas demand
For the next decade, the prospects for gas demand in the European Union look
relatively upbeat compared with other fossil fuels
Demand for gas, oil and coal in the European Union in the
Index (1990 = 100)
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Gas
Oil
Coal
New Policies ScenarioSustainable Development Scenario
;
its role is less certain in the Sustainable Development Scenario
Gas
Oil
Coal
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
In the US and EU, the long-term role of gas is challenged by renewables and
efficiency. Gas plays a more prolonged role in China and India, helping to push
more polluting fuels out of the system
The contribution of gas to further emissions reductions differs by region
Change in gas demand, 2017 versus 2040
- 200
0
200
400
China India United States European Union
bcm
New Policies
Scenario
Sustainable
Development
Scenario
, by scenarioin the New Policies Scenario
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
