NATO’S RESPONSE TO NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES Michael Rühle Head, Energy Security Section NATO...
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Transcript of NATO’S RESPONSE TO NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES Michael Rühle Head, Energy Security Section NATO...
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NATO’S RESPONSE TO NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES
Michael RühleHead, Energy Security Section
NATO Emerging Security Challenges Division
ATHENA CONFERENCEAthens, 17 June 2014
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THE HAZARDS OF PREDICTION
“Persons who pretend to predict the future shall be considered disorderly and will be liable to a fine of $300 or three months in jail.”
Old Criminal Code of New York
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WHY PREDICTION IS NECESSARY
“My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.”
Charles F. Kettering
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MAJOR TRENDS (1)
• Decline in state sovereignty; power shift from states to international or non-state networks
• Proliferation of new technologies (e.g. bio-technology; cyber) to empower state and non-state actors
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MAJOR TRENDS (2)
• New Nuclear Weapons States (real and “virtual”)
• Failing states as safe havens and training grounds for terrorist groups, pirates, drugs …
• Cyber attacks (from disruption to destruction)
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MAJOR TRENDS (3)
• Competition for scarce natural resources (energy, rare earths) can spark territorial conflicts
• Climate Change can cause natural disasters and amplify regional conflicts
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DILEMMAS OF COLLECTIVE ACTION
• New threats may not affect all countries in the same way and at the same time - different degrees of solidarity
• Some new threats are not predominantly military in nature
• Responding to new threats requires civilian and military means
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POLITICAL FRAMEWORK (MANDATE)
Strategic Concept (2010)
• Devotes considerable attention to emerging security challenges
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BUREAUCRATIC CHANGES
Emerging Security Challenges Division (2010):
• Cyber defence; Counter-terrorism; WMD-non-proliferation & CBRN defence; Energy security; Nuclear policy; Science for Peace and Security Programme
• Strategic Analysis Capability; Economic Security Assessment
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POLICY DEVELOPMENT (1)
• Cyber Defence Policy & Action Plan
• Counterterrorism Political Guidelines
• Strategic Level Policy for WMD Non-Proliferation
• Summit Progress Reports on NATO’s Role in Energy Security
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POLICY DEVELOPMENT (2)
•Better intelligence-sharing
•More analyses on current and future security risks (to stimulate Allied debate)
•Clearer direction for NATO’s education and training efforts on emerging challenges
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POLICY DEVELOPMENT (3)
• Incorporation of emerging challenges into NATO exercises
• Closer links with other International Organisations, NGO’s, scientific community and private sector
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INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL CHALLENGES
• Emerging challenges compete with “traditional” security issues
• Limited “buy in” by some Allies and NATO’s leadership
• NATO’s (military) toolbox limits its importance as an actor in meeting non-traditional challenges
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THE WAY AHEAD
• Stronger reflection of emerging challenges in NATO’s training & education efforts as well as exercises
•More regular strategic-level discussions on emerging security challenges
• Enhanced “connectivity” of NATO with other players
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“YOU CANNOT TEACH AN OLD DOG NEW TRICKS”
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APPLYING NOAH’S RULE
“Predicting rain doesn’t count. Building arks does.”