National support to improve air...

For our Environment

National support to improve air quality?

TFIAM, Tallinn, 28-29 June 2018

Andreas Eisold Section II 4.1 / General Aspects of Air Quality Control with support from Marcel Langner, Johanna Appelhans, Kevin Hausmann, Stefan Feigenspan, Stephan Nordmann

Outline

• National Emissions and Reduction Commitments

• Measures

• Impact on Air Quality – First Estimation

• Study on Health Effects of NO2-concentrations

National support to improve air quality

28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 2

Development National Air Pollution Control Programme



0

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Emiss

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Emissions 1990 bis 2016 (Submission 2018) and commitments of the NEC-Directive (EU) 2016/2284 for Germany

SO2 NOx NOx ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft)

NMVOC NMVOC ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NH3

PM2.5




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Emissions 2005 - 2016 (Submission 2018) and commitments of the NEC-Directive (EU) 2016/2284 for Germany

SO2 NOx NOx ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft)

NMVOC NMVOC ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NH3

PM2.5




National measures to reduce emissions • Large Combustion Plants – LCP BREF/BAT conclusions –

13.BImSchV • Medium Combustion Plants – MCP-Directive – 44.BImSchV • Small Stationary Combustion – Ecodesign Directive – 1.BImSchV • Road Traffic – Fleet renewal through Euro-Standards + Software-

Updates and Retrofitting of Cars and Busses + Modal split + E-mobility

• Agriculture – Tackle the whole nitrogen cycle • ? Decarbonization of the energy sector ? (‘Exit from the coal’)




Impact on air quality – CTM – Background concentrations




Impact on air quality – CTM – Background concentrations 2005-2015

Pollutant mean concentration

2005 µg/m³

mean concentration

2015 µg/m³

absolute difference

µg/m³

relative difference

%

NO2 10.46 7.70 - 2.76 - 35.8 Ozon 49.42 51.23 + 1.81 + 3.5 NH3 4.37 5.24 + 0.87 + 16.6 SO2 3.41 2.09 - 1.32 - 63.1 PM10 15.24 12.58 -2.66 - 21.1 PM2.5 13.82 11.25 -2.57 - 22.8




Impact on air quality – CTM – Background concentrations 2005-2015 2005-2015 NO2 emission reduction – 340 kt – 21% further reduction required till 2030 – 609 kt


2005 µg/m³

mean concentration

2015 µg/m³

absolute difference

µg/m³

relative difference

%

NO2 10.46 7.70 - 2.76 - 35.8 Ozon 49.42 51.23 + 1.81 + 3.5 NH3 4.37 5.24 + 0.87 + 16.6 SO2 3.41 2.09 - 1.32 - 63.1 PM10 15.24 12.58 -2.66 - 21.1 PM2.5 13.82 11.25 -2.57 - 22.8




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ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah

NO2 annual means by station categories 2005-2016




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NO2 annual means by station categories 2005-2016

remember: 2005 – 2015 = -2,76 µg/m³




Preliminary evaluation NO2 exceedances 2017

more than 60 stations exceeded the limit value remember: 2005 – 2015 = -2,76 µg/m³




Preliminary evaluation NO2 exceedances 2017

Diesel Euro 1-4 Diesel Euro 6 TEMO

Softwareupdates + Diesel Euro 1-4 Diesel Euro 6 a,b,c und Benzin Euro




Impact on air quality – CTM – Background concentrations 2005-2015 2005-2015 primaryPM2.5 emission reduction – 32 kt – 24% further reduction required till 2030 – 21 kt But there will also be substantial reductions of PM-precursors.


2005 µg/m³

mean concentration

2015 µg/m³

absolute difference

µg/m³

relative difference

%

NO2 10.46 7.70 - 2.76 - 35.8 Ozon 49.42 51.23 + 1.81 + 3.5 NH3 4.37 5.24 + 0.87 + 16.6 SO2 3.41 2.09 - 1.32 - 63.1 PM10 15.24 12.58 -2.66 - 21.1 PM2.5 13.82 11.25 -2.57 - 22.8




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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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PM10 annual means by station categories 2005-2016




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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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PM10 annual means by station categories 2005-2016

remember: 2005 – 2015 = PM10 -2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5 -2,57 µg/m³




PM2.5 JRC – Urban Atlas for Düsseldorf, Germany




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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Experiment





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Experiment 2


TSAP Report #12 – Kiesewetter and Amann, IIASA



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Experiment 2


UBA-Study by TNO and others (not yet published)






Impact on air quality – CTM – Background concentrations 2005-2015


2005 µg/m³

mean concentration

2015 µg/m³

absolute difference

µg/m³

relative difference

%

NO2 10.46 7.70 - 2.76 - 35.8 Ozon 49.42 51.23 + 1.81 + 3.5 NH3 4.37 5.24 + 0.87 + 16.6 SO2 3.41 2.09 - 1.32 - 63.1 PM10 15.24 12.58 -2.66 - 21.1 PM2.5 13.82 11.25 -2.57 - 22.8


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2005-2007 2006-2008 2007-2009 2008-2010 2009-2011 2010-2012 2011-2013 2012-2014 2013-2015 2014-2016

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ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund

Number of days exceeding O3-target value of 120µg/m³ (3 year average of max. 8h mean) by station categories 2005-2016

28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn



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2005-2007 2006-2008 2007-2009 2008-2010 2009-2011 2010-2012 2011-2013 2012-2014 2013-2015 2014-2016

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Number of days exceeding O3-target value of 120µg/m³ (3 year average of max. 8h mean) by station categories 2005-2016

remember: 2005 – 2015 = O3 +1,81 µg/m³

28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn


Conclusions



Impact of national measures (NAPCP) on local air quality • Impact on PM2.5 concentrations >> NO2

• Impact on O3 is depending on Compliance with the NEC-Directive in

all member states (as well as global emission reductions)

Health Impact of NO2-concentrations



NO2 modelled background Population Density 2011 concentration - annual mean




High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality




High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality Only around 2% of cardiovascular mortality is attributable to NO2





Critique: Combined Impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O3






NO2 may only mask UFP-effects higher risks through PM (factor 10), but limit value higher than WHO-guidelines, so it’s not in focus long term exposition can not be concluded from place of residence Pro: Conservative Estimation quantifying the minimum effect of NO2, showing at least that there is an effect






NO2 may only mask UFP-effects higher risks through PM (factor 10), but limit value higher than WHO-guidelines, so it’s not in focus long term exposition can not be concluded from place of residence Pro: Conservative Estimation quantifying the minimum effect of NO2, showing at least that there is an effect

Years of Life Lost (YLL)

09.07.2018 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 34

Thank you very much for your attention! Andreas Eisold [email protected] Phone: +49-340-2103-2683 http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/air

National support to improve air...

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