Sunday Times /Behaviour &...

Sunday Times /Behaviour & Attitudes September 2016 Opinion Poll Prepared for

Prepared by Ian McShane J.7678

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Technical Appendix

3

Technical Appendix

● The results of this opinion poll are based upon a representative sample of 911 eligible Irish voters aged 18 years +.

● As such, the results can be deemed to be accurate to within plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

● Fieldwork was conducted on an in-home, face-to-face basis over the period 4th – 14th September, 2016.

● The sample was stratified across all constituencies at 125 locations in the country with individuals selected for interview by way of Demographic Quotas (age, gender, socio-economic status) in line with Central Statistics Office (CSO) and market research industry population estimates.

4

Technical Appendix

● The subsequent survey results are weighted to reflect the known demographic profile of Irish adults, utilising the most recently published census population estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

● Party support levels are subsequently realigned in accordance with a technical adjustment factor, designed to smooth the effects of extreme highs and lows in support levels for individual parties as measured at a single point in time, and taking variable election day turnout levels into account.

● All aspects of the survey, including the Party Support adjustment factor, are implemented in accordance with the technical and ethical guidelines set down by the Association of Irish Market Research Organisations (AIMRO) and the European Society of Opinion & Market Research (ESOMAR).

5

Charted Summary

6

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Government and Party Leader Satisfaction Levels

20th Feb

2012 f/w : 15th

– 20th Feb. 2012

17th Apr, 2012 f/w : 11th

– 17th Apr. 2012

23rd May 2012 f/w: 18th

– 23rd May, 2012

9th Sept. 2012 f/w:

4th -9th Sept 2012

13th Nov 2012 f/w: 1st- 13th Nov 2012

21st Jan

2013 f/w: 15th – 21st Jan. 2013

26th Mar

2013 f/w: 11th -26th Mar. 2013

24th Jun

2013 f/w: 11th –

24th June 2013

17th Sept 2013 f/w 10th Sept

– 17th Sept 2013

15th Dec 2013 f/w

3rd – 15th Dec 2013

19th Feb

2014 f/w: 11th –

19th Feb

2014

16th Apr

2014 f/w: 6th – 16th Apr

2014

13th Aug 2014 f/w: 4th – 13th Aug 2014

22nd Oct. f/w: 14th –

22nd Oct. 2014

21st Dec f/w: 9th – 17th Dec 2014

11th Mar f/w: 2nd

Mar – 11th Mar

2015

11th May f/w: 1st – 11th May 2015

15th June f/w: 5th – 15th June 2015

14th July f/w: 4th – 14th July 2015

12th Aug f/w: 2nd – 12th Aug 2015

14th Oct f/w 5th – 14th Oct

2015

11th Nov f/w 30th

Oct – 11th Nov 2015

9th Dec f/w 30th Nov – 9th Dec 2015

13th Jan f/w 4th

Jan- 13thJ

an 2016

2nd Feb f/w 1st – 2nd Feb

2016

16th Feb f/w 15th –

16thFeb

2016

*3th Apr f/w

3rd – 13th Apr 16

11th May f/w 1st-11th May 16

15th June f/w

3rd – 15th Jun 16

13th July f/w 1st- 13th Jul 16

14th Sept f/w 4th – 14th Sept 16

The Government 26% 29% 31% 24% 26% 22% 25% 24% 24% 35% 31% 28% 27% 29% 29% 35% 30% 28% 29% 30% 33% 28% 35% 33% 34% 33% 22% 24% 26% 30% 36%

Micheál Martin 33% 34% 41% 34% 42% 48% 44% 43% 37% 43% 43% 45% 39% 37% 39% 38% 35% 40% 42% 39% 41% 39% 40% 41% 39% 44% 42% 44% 46% 50% 48%

Enda Kenny 41% 47% 42% 38% 41% 39% 39% 37% 34% 44% 41% 40% 35% 29% 28% 32% 29% 28% 28% 32% 33% 31% 35% 31% 31% 31% 26% 26% 26% 31% 33%

Eamon Gilmore/ Joan Burton/ Brendan Howlin

34% 37% 32% 34% 29% 26% 29% 26% 26% 32% 31% 37%

45%

41% 34% 37% 35% 36% 34% 37% 36% 34% 39% 34% 34% 30% 27% 28%

*40%

43% 39%

Gerry Adams 46% 43% 42% 39% 40% 43% 45% 43% 41% 33% 39% 48% 47% 40% 34% 37% 33% 32% 32% 34% 34% 36% 35% 32% 36% 32% 33% 30% 31% 38% 33%

Eamon Ryan 25% 29% 29% 27% 27% 30% 29% 30% 30% 30% 31% 33% 37% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 29% 33% 33% 33% 35% 32% 37% 36% 33% 37% 37% 37% 36%

Q.2 Q.3

Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country? Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (…..) is doing his/her job as (…….)?

*Inclusion of Brendan Howlin as Leader of Labour Party

7

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Core Party Support Levels

20th Feb. 2012

f/w: 15th –

20th Feb. 12

17th Apr, 2012

f/w: 11th –

17th Apr. 12

23rd May 2012

f/w: 18th –

23rd May, 12

9th Sept

. 2012

f/w: 4th -9th Sept 12

13th Nov 2012

f/w: 1st- 13th Nov 12

21st Jan 2013

f/w: 15th –

21st

Jan. 13

26th Mar 2013

f/w: 11th -26th Mar. 13

24th Jun 2013

f/w: 11th –

24th June 13

17th Sept 2013

f/w 10th Sept

– 17th Sept 13

15th Dec 2013

f/w 3rd – 15th Dec 13

19th Feb 2014

f/w: 11th –

19th Feb 14

16th Apr 2014

f/w: 6th – 16th Apr 14

15th May 2014

f/w: 3rd – 15th May 14

13th Aug 2014

f/w: 4th – 13th Aug 14


22nd Oct. 14


11th Mar f/w: 2nd Mar –

11th Mar 15




12th Aug f/w: 2nd –

12th Aug 15

14th Oct f/w 5th – 14th Oct 15

11th Nov f/w 30th Oct –

11th Nov 15


13th Jan f/w 4th

Jan- 13thJan 16

2nd Feb f/w 1st – 2nd Feb 16


16thFeb 16

*3th Apr f/w

3rd – 13th Apr 16


15th June f/w 3rd – 15th Jun 16



Fianna Fáil 11% 12% 12% 12% 16% 19% 19% 19% 15% 19% 16% 17% 16% 15% 14% 14% 14% 12% 17% 15% 16% 15% 14% 15% 15% 16% 19% 22% 23% 20% 23% 21%

Fine Gael 23% 22% 24% 23% 23% 17% 19% 19% 19% 21% 22% 18% 20% 18% 17% 17% 19% 19% 15% 18% 19% 18% 18% 20% 20% 21% 24% 19% 20% 21% 20% 19%

Labour 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 7% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 6% 4% 2% 3% 5% 3% 4%

Sinn Féin 18% 14% 17% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 14% 11% 16% 16% 15% 22% 17% 20% 19% 17% 16% 15% 15% 16% 17% 16% 14% 16% 14% 15% 11% 15% 13% 15%

Green Party 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1%

Independents/Others 11% 12% 10% 12% 11% 9% 15% 12% 14% 13% 14% 18% 16% 17% 21% 23% 17% 21% 19% 24% 19% 20% 19% 16% 19% 19% 22% 23% 18% 19% 19% 18%

Undecided 30% 30% 28% 30% 29% 33% 27% 29% 30% 28% 24% 24% 25% 19% 24% 22% 24% 25% 28% 23% 26% 23% 26% 27% 27% 19% 17% 17% 22% 18% 21% 23%

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

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Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecideds - Unadjusted)

20th Feb, 2012 f/w: 15th –

20th Feb. 12

17th Apr, 2012 f/w: 11th –

17th Apr. 12

23rd May 2012 f/w: 18th –

23rd May, 12

9th Sept

. 2012 f/w: 4th -9th

Sept 12

13th Nov 2012 f/w: 1st- 13th Nov 12

21st Jan

2013 f/w:15th

– 21st Jan. 13

26th Mar 2013 f/w: 11th

-26th Mar. 13

24th Jun

2013 f/w: 11th –

24th June 13

17th Sept 2013 f/w 10th Sept

– 17th Sept 13

15th Dec 2013 f/w

3rd – 15th Dec 13

19th Feb

2014 f/w: 11th –

19th Feb 14

16th Apr

2014 f/w: 6th – 16th Apr 14

15th May 2014 f/w: 3rd – 15th May 14

13th Aug 2014 f/w: 4th – 13th Aug 14


22nd Oct. 14



11th Mar 15







11th Nov 15


13th Jan f/w 4th

Jan- 13thJan 16



16thFeb 16

*3th Apr f/w

3rd – 13th Apr 16





Fianna Fáil 16% 17% 17% 18% 23% 28% 27% 27% 21% 27% 21% 22% 22% 18% 19% 17% 19% 15% 24% 19% 22% 20% 19% 21% 20% 20% 23% 26% 29% 25% 29% 27%

Fine Gael 32% 32% 33% 33% 32% 26% 26% 26% 27% 29% 28% 23% 27% 22% 23% 21% 25% 25% 21% 24% 25% 24% 25% 27% 28% 27% 28% 23% 26% 25% 26% 25%

Labour 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 10% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 9% 5% 5% 7% 7% 6% 7% 5% 7% 7% 7% 5% 7% 4% 3% 4% 6% 4% 5%

Sinn Féin 25% 20% 23% 19% 17% 20% 17% 19% 20% 15% 21% 21% 20% 27% 23% 25% 25% 22% 22% 20% 21% 21% 23% 21% 19% 20% 16% 18% 14% 18% 16% 19%

Green Party 2% 5% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1%

Independent/ Others 15% 17% 14% 17% 16% 14% 21% 17% 20% 19% 18% 23% 22% 21% 28% 30% 22% 28% 27% 30% 26% 26% 25% 22% 26% 24% 26% 27% 23% 23% 24% 24%


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Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical Note

● Predicting election results on the basis of poll data is not an exact science. All the evidence shows that support for individual parties can swing dramatically in the period between elections- very often outside the bounds of historic election results.

● What to do in these circumstances? Most polling companies in Britain and Ireland publish their raw survey results as an index of fluctuations in the emotional mood of voters. They also build in an adjustment based on a number of factors. Where we have reports of how people voted in the last general election as well as how they intend to vote in the next one we can use these data to model the likely level of swing from the last election results.

● We then add back in the forecasts of voters who have not voted last time or do not answer that particular question.

● Finally we take into account each individuals stated likelihood of voting in a forthcoming General Election.

● This is the basis of the adjusted voting forecast in Behaviour & Attitudes polls.

10

Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecided - Adjusted)

● Adjusted figures based on:

All who state they would definitely vote

Weighting of those respondents who give a definite answer as to who they would vote for in a general election and who they voted for in the last election, a quarter of the way between stated voting intention and the result of the last election.

Making no adjustment to stated voting intention of those who do not indicate how they voted in last election.

20th Feb. 2012

f/w: 15th –

20th Feb. 12

17th Apr, 2012

f/w: 11th –

17th Apr. 12

23rd May 2012

f/w: 18th –

23rd May, 12

9th Sept

. 2012

f/w: 4th -9th Sept 12

13th Nov 2012

f/w: 1st- 13th Nov 12

21st Jan 2013

f/w: 15th –

21st

Jan. 13

26th Mar 2013

f/w: 11th -26th Mar. 13

24th Jun 2013

f/w: 11th –

24th June 13

17th Sept 2013

f/w 10th Sept

– 17th Sept 13

15th Dec 2013

f/w 3rd – 15th Dec 13

19th Feb 2014

f/w: 11th –

19th Feb 14

16th Apr 2014

f/w: 6th – 16th Apr 14

15th May 2014

f/w: 3rd – 15th May 14

13th Aug 2014

f/w: 4th – 13th Aug 14


22nd Oct. 14



11th Mar 15







11th Nov 15


13th Jan f/w 4th

Jan- 13thJan 16



16thFeb 16

*3th Apr f/w 3rd – 13th Apr 16





Fianna Fáil 16% 15% 16% 16% 22% 24% 23% 24% 21% 21% 19% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 21% 18% 20% 19% 20% 19% 20% 20% 22% 26% 27% 25% 30% 28%

Fine Gael 33% 33% 33% 31% 30% 26% 27% 27% 25% 30% 30% 21% 26% 24% 25% 24% 27% 27% 24% 24% 27% 24% 26% 31% 31% 28% 30% 23% 26% 26% 25% 23%

Labour 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 11% 7% 7% 11% 11% 9% 9% 7% 14% 9% 5% 9% 8% 9% 8% 6% 8% 7% 8% 6% 8% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7%

Sinn Féin 20% 16% 17% 18% 14% 19% 15% 16% 18% 15% 18% 20% 21% 19% 19% 22% 19% 20% 19% 17% 19% 19% 21% 17% 16% 17% 15% 17% 16% 17% 14% 18%

Green Party 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1%

Independents/ Others

16% 18% 18% 19% 19% 18% 25% 23% 23% 21% 21% 26% 24% 22% 25% 29% 23% 26% 26% 31% 26% 28% 25% 21% 24% 24% 27% 27% 22% 24% 22% 23%


11

Party Support Levels – Detailed Breakdown (excluding undecided/adjusted)

Q.8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your first preference vote?

28

23

18

12

7

4

4

2

1

1

0

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Sinn Fein

Other Independent candidate

Labour Party

Independent Alliance

Anti-Austerity Alliance / People Before ProfitAlliance

Green Party

Workers Party

Social Democrats

RENUA Ireland

%

General Election 28th

Feb 16 Result %

24.3

25.5

13.8

11.7

6.6

4.2

3.9

2.7

0.2

3

2.2

NB: Figs. in italics = change since last General Election in February, 2016

4

-3

4

-

-

-

-

-1

1

-2

-2

Change

12

Party Support Levels – Detailed Breakdown Trend (Excluding Undecided – Adjusted)

Q.8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your first preference vote?

27

24 26

31 31

28 30

23

26 26 25

23

20 19

20 19

20 20 22

26 27

25

30 28

19 19

21

17

16 17

15

17 16

17 14

18

6 8

7 8

6 8

4 4 5 5 6

7

2

4 5

2 2 3

4 5

8 7 6

4 4

12 12 12 11

12 10 10 10

8 9

8

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 2nd Feb-16 16th Feb'16

April '16 May '16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Sep-16

Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn FeinLabour Party Green Party Independent AlliancePeople Before Profit/Anti-Austerity Alliance Workers Party RENUA IrelandSocial Democrats Independent candidate

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Sinn Féin

Independent

Labour Party People Before Profit/AAA Independent Alliance Green Party Workers Party Social Democrats RENUA Ireland

4

1 *

%

2

13

Support for United Ireland Cross-Border Referendum

Q.9a Would you be in favour of or against a cross-border referendum being held on a United Ireland?

Break 2

Total Party Support

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent / Other

Don't Know/

Would not vote

Unweighted 911 199 170 36 10 141 159 196

% % % % % % % %

In favour of a cross border poll being held 63 58 66 56 57 82 64 54

Against a cross border poll being held 17 21 24 20 32 11 14 13

Don’t know/no opinion 20 21 9 24 11 8 22 33

Total Gender Age Social Class Region Area

Male Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Unweighted 911 419 492 231 371 309 431 434 46 265 240 239 167 604 307

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

In favour of a cross border poll being held 63 67 59 64 66 59 64 63 61 63 63 74 49 65 61

Against a cross border poll being held 17 19 16 15 16 22 20 17 5 23 15 9 22 20 12

Don’t know/no opinion 20 14 25 21 18 20 17 20 33 14 22 16 29 15 27

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Voting intention in United Ireland Referendum

Q.9b And if there was a Referendum on a United Ireland, would you vote in favour of, or against a United Ireland?

Total Party Support

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent / Other

Don't Know/

Would not vote

Unweighted 911 199 170 36 10 141 159 196

% % % % % % % %

In favour of a United Ireland 67 63 69 55 57 84 74 56

Against a United Ireland 15 20 19 19 19 8 11 13

Don’t know/no opinion 18 17 12 26 25 8 15 30



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Unweighted 911 419 492 231 371 309 431 434 46 265 240 239 167 604 307 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

In favour of a United Ireland 67 70 65 68 69 64 63 69 75 68 61 79 59 69 63

Against a United Ireland 15 16 14 14 15 16 17 14 8 20 17 9 14 17 12


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Support for United Ireland if it meant….

Q.9c And would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ……..READ OUT EACH OPTION IN TURN



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Unweighted 911 419 492 231 371 309 431 434 46 265 240 239 167 604 307

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % ..you would have to pay

less tax

In favour of United Ireland 72 76 68 74 72 68 71 72 78 73 68 80 62 73 70

Against United Ireland 10 10 10 11 9 12 10 11 4 9 14 7 11 11 9

Don’t know 18 14 22 15 19 20 19 17 18 17 18 13 27 16 21 …there would be no

change in the amount of tax you pay



Don’t know 22 17 26 18 23 24 22 22 18 23 19 14 33 21 22 …you would have to pay

more tax



Don’t know 29 23 34 27 29 30 26 30 35 29 29 22 38 27 32

16

Support for United Ireland if it meant….

Total

Party Support

Fianna Fail Fine Gael Labour Party

Green Party Sinn Fein Independent / Other

Don't Know/

Would not vote

Unweighted 911 199 170 36 10 141 159 196

% % % % % % % % ..you would have to

pay less tax

In favour of United Ireland 72 69 76 54 40 84 81 60

Against United Ireland 10 16 10 14 6 7 7 10

Don’t know 18 16 15 33 53 9 12 30 …there would be no change in the

amount of tax you pay In favour of United

Ireland 64 60 71 33 28 76 72 54


Don’t know 22 18 17 41 53 11 17 34 …you would have to

pay more tax In favour of United

Ireland 32 30 38 16 29 40 40 22


Don’t know 29 27 23 43 53 21 24 41

Q.9c And would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ……..READ OUT EACH OPTION IN TURN

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Commentary

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Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series

Background

Today’s is the first Behaviour & Attitudes/Sunday Times Poll since July, a survey which registered a significant increase in support for Fianna Fáil and a corresponding drop for Sinn Féin.

The summer ‘holiday’ period is usually a quiet one in terms of political developments, with the electorate typically disengaged from the political landscape by the time September arrives, prior to pre-budget hopes and concerns beginning to kick in.

It is safe to say that August and early September 2016 has been an atypical one in this regard, with a whole series of momentous developments having unfolded over that period, many of which are likely to have influenced the findings from today’s poll.

Not least of these developments was the EU ruling on the nature of Ireland’s tax arrangements with Apple.

While most will have found the ruling unsettling in and of itself, the subsequent stance of the main political parties in challenging the veracity of the ruling despite its broad acceptance across Europe was doubly baffling to many.

Regardless of how ‘real’ the €19 billion potentially due to Ireland actually is, the average citizen will find it very hard to accept that at least some attempt should not be made to claim the money and invest it in much needed services and infrastructure.

19


Background

NAMA’s handling of Project Eagle in Northern Ireland, and the pre-publicity surrounding the C and AG report to the effect that the portfolio was sold significantly below market value is also likely to have rattled public confidence in the establishment.

In a totally different sphere, we have also witnessed over the last number of weeks the international PR disaster resulting from charges of corruption and ticket touting being levelled at Ireland’s official Olympic Council.

At a solely domestic level, the national housing crisis continues to spiral out of control, with numerous reports confirming that nowhere near enough houses will be built to meet demand in the foreseeable future, as Dublin rents in particular hit all-time highs.

Meanwhile, as fieldwork for today’s poll ended, 400,000 Dublin commuters were facing into their second week of 2-day strikes by Dublin Bus, with the prevailing view being that none of the players involved in the dispute, including the Minister for Transport, has made any effort whatsoever to attempt to resolve it.

None of the above factors reflect well on Ireland’s reputation at home or abroad, and for many people merely confirms that the culture of secrecy and corruption which lead to the 2008 financial collapse remains alive and well in 2016.

20


Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

As mentioned, the big story from last July’s poll was the significant increase in support for Fianna Fáil, from 25% the previous month to 30% in July.

This increase had come at the expense of both Sinn Féin and Independents, and appeared to represent the clawing back of some of Fianna Fáil’s populist vote which had abandoned the party in 2011.

Party support for Fianna Fáil is down two points in today’s poll to 28%, a drop which is within the statistical margin of error. A more detailed analysis of the last two polls point out, however, some worrying shifts in the profile of the Fianna Fáil support base, and no doubt they will be scrutinised by party strategists over the coming weeks.

Support for the party has actually increased by seven percentage points amongst those aged 55 years plus, but has dropped by more or less the same amount amongst females, 35 – 54 year olds, and white collar urban workers.

Indeed, at just 16% support in Dublin, Fianna Fáil has fallen well behind Independents/Others, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael in that area, and is just four percentage points ahead of the Labour Party in the capital.

The danger for Fianna Fáil is that the electorate may begin to perceive it as being just another partner in the unpopular Government, which is presumably one of the reasons for its recent change of course on the issue of water charges.

21



As Fianna Fáil’s support has settled back, albeit only marginally, support for Sinn Féin has increased significantly poll-on-poll, from 14% in July to 18% today. It is difficult to identify any specific reasons for this uplift in support for the party, other than as a backlash against the establishment, although it will come as very welcome news on the weekend of its think-in.

Support for Sinn Féin has increased most significantly amongst males, those aged 35 years and older, and working class and farming communities outside Dublin.

Fine Gael support has held up reasonably well since July, although its party support level has declined by two percentage points this month. While not a significant drop in and of itself, support for the main coalition party has slid quite consistently from a 31% high last December and January, to 26% in May and June, down to 23% today.

Indeed, it is interesting to note that Fine Gael is the only party whose support in today’s poll is lower than its share of the vote in the General Election last February.

Notwithstanding this, Fine Gael is still the largest of the main political parties in Dublin, where it out-performs Sinn Féin by four percentage points, and Fianna Fáil by seven.

While some of its back benchers continue to clamour for a departure date for Enda Kenny as Taoiseach and leader of Fine Gael, three quarters of all grass roots Fine Gael supporters in today’s poll indicate they are satisfied with the job he is doing, and presumably are in no rush to see him go!

22



Labour Party support in today’s poll sits at 7% - the same level of support it achieved in the General Election, although support for the party has increased quite notably amongst 35-54 year olds and, even more so, in Dublin where support now stands at 12%.

With Independents/smaller parties still commanding approximately a quarter of all support across the country, the relative stability in support for Fianna Fáil, along with a significant increase for Sinn Féin, is bound to prompt the question yet again as to how feasible a ‘grand republican’ coalition is likely to be after our next General Election.

23


Cross Border Referendum

One of the inevitable consequences of the Brexit vote was a reinvigoration of the debate around Northern Ireland’s status within the UK, and the extent to which there may or may not be an appetite for a United Ireland at some stage in the future.

With a view to informing this debate, a number of related questions were administered on this month’s poll, the results of which are by definition limited to citizens of the Republic.

Almost two thirds (63%) of all Irish voters are in favour of a cross-Border referendum being held on a United Ireland. Support for the holding of such a referendum is highest amongst males, 18-54 year olds and urban dwellers.

At a national level, just one in six of all voters are opposed to a cross-Border poll being held, with one in five undecided.

As might be expected, support for such a poll peaks amongst supporters of Sinn Féin, at 82% and is actually lowest within Labour Party, Green Party and Fianna Fáil supporters.

In the event of a Referendum on a United Ireland being held, 67% indicate they would vote in favour of reunification, 15% would vote against it, with the balance uncertain.

In the wake of Enda Kenny’s comments that a United Ireland cannot be ruled out in the post-Brexit environment, it is interesting to note that a greater proportion of Fine Gael voters (69%) are in favour of a United Ireland than are supporters of Fianna Fáil (63%) or the Labour Party (55%).

24


Cross Border Referendum

With a view to testing the resilience of this pro-United Ireland sentiment, respondents were asked whether they would be in favour or against reunification if it meant they would have to pay less tax, the same amount of tax, or more tax.

In response, the proportion of respondents in favour of a United Ireland drops from 67% when there are ‘no strings attached’ down to just 32% in a scenario where people would have to pay more tax. By way of example, support for a United Ireland with no conditions attached stands at 84% of all Sinn Féin supporters, but drops to just 40% of the same group in the event of their having to pay more tax for the privilege.

At the end of the day, a United Ireland remains more a romantic aspiration for the average citizen of the Republic of Ireland, with just three in ten of us prepared to support reunification if it is to incur any significant costs to the State, or ourselves personally.

Tabular Data

J7678 : Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Sept Barometer No1 2016

Table 1 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 1

Q1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region Area


Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236

Unweighted Total 911 419 492 231 371 309 431 434 46 265 240 239 167 604 307

Satisfied 1,149 599 550 409 426 314 512 561 76 280 295 323 251 677 472

36% 39% 33% 37% 37% 32% 39% 33% 35% 31% 34% 38% 41% 34% 38%

Dissatisfied 1,728 790 938 517 616 595 650 971 107 560 466 445 257 1,138 590

54% 51% 56% 47% 54% 61% 50% 57% 50% 61% 54% 53% 42% 57% 48%

No opinion (DO NOT READ OUT)

350 157 193 181 101 68 148 170 32 75 101 75 99 176 174

11% 10% 12% 16% 9% 7% 11% 10% 15% 8% 12% 9% 16% 9% 14%



Q1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Q9 Likelihood Consitituency Seats

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other

Don't Know /Would not

Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote

5 Seats 4 Seats 3 Seats

Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653

Unweighted Total 911 199 170 36 10 141 159 196 820 678 142 36 39 331 399 181

Satisfied 1,149 225 469 57 4 68 123 203 1,086 879 207 30 13 419 520 210

36% 34% 76% 49% 12% 14% 21% 27% 38% 36% 45% 27% 7% 34% 39% 32%

Dissatisfied 1,728 367 135 43 29 362 409 383 1,550 1,329 221 51 115 712 636 381

54% 55% 22% 38% 88% 77% 70% 51% 54% 55% 48% 46% 61% 57% 48% 58%


350 73 12 15 - 42 50 159 241 212 29 30 59 113 175 62

11% 11% 2% 13% - 9% 9% 21% 8% 9% 6% 27% 31% 9% 13% 10%



Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


Satisfied 1,073 505 568 380 377 317 478 494 102 287 230 282 274 650 424

33% 33% 34% 34% 33% 32% 36% 29% 47% 31% 27% 33% 45% 33% 34%

Dissatisfied 1,804 887 917 525 675 604 683 1,030 92 581 479 468 276 1,173 632

56% 57% 55% 47% 59% 62% 52% 60% 43% 64% 56% 55% 45% 59% 51%


349 152 197 202 90 56 149 178 21 46 153 93 57 168 181

11% 10% 12% 18% 8% 6% 11% 10% 10% 5% 18% 11% 9% 8% 15%



Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


Satisfied 1,073 212 450 45 - 81 115 170 1,023 822 201 21 10 403 490 180

33% 32% 73% 39% - 17% 20% 23% 36% 34% 44% 19% 5% 32% 37% 28%

Dissatisfied 1,804 421 148 59 33 371 399 373 1,614 1,404 210 63 110 721 691 393

56% 63% 24% 52% 100% 79% 69% 50% 56% 58% 46% 57% 59% 58% 52% 60%


349 32 17 11 - 20 68 202 240 194 47 27 66 119 150 80

11% 5% 3% 10% - 4% 12% 27% 8% 8% 10% 25% 35% 10% 11% 12%



Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Howlin is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


Satisfied 1,258 648 610 405 421 433 535 607 116 323 323 358 255 737 522

39% 42% 36% 37% 37% 44% 41% 36% 54% 35% 38% 42% 42% 37% 42%

Dissatisfied 1,388 676 712 432 537 419 544 779 65 459 338 367 223 936 452

43% 44% 42% 39% 47% 43% 41% 46% 30% 50% 39% 44% 37% 47% 37%


581 221 359 271 185 125 231 316 34 133 200 118 130 319 262

18% 14% 21% 24% 16% 13% 18% 19% 16% 15% 23% 14% 21% 16% 21%



Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Howlin is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


Satisfied 1,258 261 372 84 4 120 129 289 1,141 923 219 36 61 511 502 245

39% 39% 60% 73% 12% 25% 22% 39% 40% 38% 48% 33% 33% 41% 38% 38%

Dissatisfied 1,388 278 139 21 26 301 339 283 1,240 1,069 171 53 75 497 595 296

43% 42% 23% 18% 79% 64% 58% 38% 43% 44% 37% 48% 40% 40% 45% 45%


581 126 104 10 3 50 114 173 496 428 67 22 50 234 234 112

18% 19% 17% 8% 8% 11% 20% 23% 17% 18% 15% 20% 27% 19% 18% 17%



Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


Satisfied 1,549 797 752 447 540 561 596 829 124 370 394 447 337 883 666

48% 52% 45% 40% 47% 57% 46% 49% 58% 40% 46% 53% 56% 44% 54%

Dissatisfied 1,291 623 668 468 474 348 499 726 66 431 352 296 212 853 438

40% 40% 40% 42% 42% 36% 38% 43% 31% 47% 41% 35% 35% 43% 35%


387 126 261 192 128 68 214 147 26 114 115 99 59 255 132

12% 8% 16% 17% 11% 7% 16% 9% 12% 12% 13% 12% 10% 13% 11%



Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


Satisfied 1,549 561 330 70 10 120 149 309 1,419 1,161 257 51 58 577 680 292

48% 84% 54% 61% 30% 25% 26% 41% 49% 48% 56% 46% 31% 46% 51% 45%

Dissatisfied 1,291 80 207 30 23 323 358 270 1,147 997 150 46 80 515 490 285

40% 12% 34% 26% 70% 68% 61% 36% 40% 41% 33% 42% 43% 41% 37% 44%


387 24 79 15 - 29 75 166 311 261 50 13 49 151 161 76

12% 4% 13% 13% - 6% 13% 22% 11% 11% 11% 12% 26% 12% 12% 12%



Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


Satisfied 1,066 614 452 405 377 284 350 636 79 356 202 334 173 683 382

33% 40% 27% 37% 33% 29% 27% 37% 37% 39% 23% 40% 28% 34% 31%

Dissatisfied 1,411 616 795 368 520 523 605 729 78 405 422 291 293 874 537

44% 40% 47% 33% 46% 54% 46% 43% 36% 44% 49% 34% 48% 44% 43%


750 315 435 335 245 170 355 338 58 153 237 218 142 434 317

23% 20% 26% 30% 21% 17% 27% 20% 27% 17% 28% 26% 23% 22% 26%



Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


Satisfied 1,066 188 127 53 8 396 106 187 929 757 172 52 72 448 473 144

33% 28% 21% 46% 26% 84% 18% 25% 32% 31% 38% 47% 38% 36% 36% 22%

Dissatisfied 1,411 340 309 41 24 58 328 310 1,304 1,134 170 30 62 508 575 328

44% 51% 50% 36% 74% 12% 56% 42% 45% 47% 37% 27% 33% 41% 43% 50%


750 137 179 21 - 18 147 248 644 529 115 29 53 287 283 180

23% 21% 29% 18% - 4% 25% 33% 22% 22% 25% 26% 29% 23% 21% 28%



Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


Satisfied 1,154 601 553 346 462 346 493 611 50 412 214 270 258 744 409

36% 39% 33% 31% 40% 35% 38% 36% 23% 45% 25% 32% 43% 37% 33%

Dissatisfied 1,129 526 603 370 370 390 418 623 88 344 299 290 196 709 420

35% 34% 36% 33% 32% 40% 32% 37% 41% 38% 35% 34% 32% 36% 34%


944 418 526 392 311 241 399 468 77 159 349 283 153 538 406

29% 27% 31% 35% 27% 25% 30% 28% 36% 17% 40% 34% 25% 27% 33%



Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


Satisfied 1,154 264 265 52 30 156 152 234 1,051 858 192 38 57 423 532 199

36% 40% 43% 45% 91% 33% 26% 31% 37% 35% 42% 34% 30% 34% 40% 31%

Dissatisfied 1,129 226 171 35 3 202 249 244 1,016 865 152 35 61 436 460 233

35% 34% 28% 30% 9% 43% 43% 33% 35% 36% 33% 32% 33% 35% 35% 36%


944 174 179 29 - 114 181 267 810 697 113 38 69 384 340 221

29% 26% 29% 25% - 24% 31% 36% 28% 29% 25% 34% 37% 31% 26% 34%



Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


Fianna Fail 665 350 315 137 205 323 181 426 58 117 270 145 132 362 302

21% 23% 19% 12% 18% 33% 14% 25% 27% 13% 31% 17% 22% 18% 24%

Fine Gael 615 321 295 160 240 216 303 258 55 173 120 170 152 390 226

19% 21% 18% 14% 21% 22% 23% 15% 25% 19% 14% 20% 25% 20% 18%

Labour Party 115 42 73 54 48 14 57 58 - 58 17 39 1 103 13

4% 3% 4% 5% 4% 1% 4% 3% - 6% 2% 5% 0% 5% 1%

Green Party 33 15 18 10 16 7 12 20 - 13 9 5 4 18 15

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Sinn Fein 472 304 168 182 165 125 143 294 35 138 143 105 86 259 212

15% 20% 10% 16% 14% 13% 11% 17% 16% 15% 17% 13% 14% 13% 17%

Independent / Other 582 259 323 220 236 126 262 307 14 197 128 176 82 374 208

18% 17% 19% 20% 21% 13% 20% 18% 6% 21% 15% 21% 13% 19% 17%

Don’t know 522 169 353 231 184 107 284 215 23 183 94 121 125 365 158

16% 11% 21% 21% 16% 11% 22% 13% 11% 20% 11% 14% 21% 18% 13%

Would not vote 222 85 137 115 48 60 68 124 30 36 80 81 25 120 102

7% 6% 8% 10% 4% 6% 5% 7% 14% 4% 9% 10% 4% 6% 8%





Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


Fianna Fail 665 665 - - - - - - 649 575 74 16 - 247 244 174

21% 100% - - - - - - 23% 24% 16% 14% - 20% 18% 27%

Fine Gael 615 - 615 - - - - - 595 515 81 8 8 220 299 96

19% - 100% - - - - - 21% 21% 18% 7% 4% 18% 22% 15%

Labour Party 115 - - 115 - - - - 115 103 12 - - 17 81 18

4% - - 100% - - - - 4% 4% 3% - - 1% 6% 3%

Green Party 33 - - - 33 - - - 30 26 4 - 2 16 6 10

1% - - - 100% - - - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 0% 2%

Sinn Fein 472 - - - - 472 - - 460 408 51 12 - 191 185 96

15% - - - - 100% - - 16% 17% 11% 11% - 15% 14% 15%

Independent / Other 582 - - - - - 582 - 563 445 117 7 13 250 190 142

18% - - - - - 100% - 20% 18% 26% 6% 7% 20% 14% 22%

Don’t know 522 - - - - - - 522 432 326 107 44 19 215 226 81

16% - - - - - - 70% 15% 13% 23% 40% 10% 17% 17% 12%

Would not vote 222 - - - - - - 222 32 21 11 24 145 87 100 36

7% - - - - - - 30% 1% 1% 2% 22% 78% 7% 8% 5%




Base : All voters excluding undecided



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 2,527 1,322 1,204 793 919 815 981 1,385 162 708 691 664 464 1,538 989


Fianna Fail 678 363 315 147 207 324 193 427 58 128 270 149 132 376 302

27% 27% 26% 19% 23% 40% 20% 31% 36% 18% 39% 22% 28% 24% 31%

Fine Gael 619 321 299 160 240 219 303 262 55 173 120 170 156 393 226

25% 24% 25% 20% 26% 27% 31% 19% 34% 24% 17% 26% 34% 26% 23%

Labour Party 128 51 77 66 48 14 57 70 - 58 17 51 1 106 22

5% 4% 6% 8% 5% 2% 6% 5% - 8% 2% 8% 0% 7% 2%

Green Party 33 15 18 10 16 7 12 20 - 13 9 5 4 18 15

1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% - 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Sinn Fein 474 306 168 184 165 125 145 294 35 138 143 105 88 261 212

19% 23% 14% 23% 18% 15% 15% 21% 22% 19% 21% 16% 19% 17% 21%


24% 20% 27% 28% 26% 15% 28% 22% 8% 28% 19% 28% 18% 25% 21%

Don’t know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -




Base : All voters excluding undecided

Total Party Support Q9 Likelihood Consitituency Seats

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 2,527 678 619 128 33 474 595 - 2,431 2,086 345 47 45 942 1,044 541

Unweighted Total 728 202 171 38 10 142 165 - 698 592 106 19 10 253 322 153

Fianna Fail 678 678 - - - - - - 661 587 74 16 2 247 258 174

27% 100% - - - - - - 27% 28% 21% 34% 4% 26% 25% 32%

Fine Gael 619 - 619 - - - - - 595 515 81 12 8 220 303 96

25% - 100% - - - - - 24% 25% 23% 26% 18% 23% 29% 18%

Labour Party 128 - - 128 - - - - 119 103 16 - 9 17 93 18

5% - - 100% - - - - 5% 5% 5% - 20% 2% 9% 3%

Green Party 33 - - - 33 - - - 30 26 4 - 2 16 6 10

1% - - - 100% - - - 1% 1% 1% - 5% 2% 1% 2%

Sinn Fein 474 - - - - 474 - - 462 408 53 12 - 191 187 96

19% - - - - 100% - - 19% 20% 15% 26% - 20% 18% 18%


24% - - - - - 100% - 23% 21% 34% 14% 53% 27% 19% 27%

Don’t know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



Adjusted Party Support : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

Base : All voters excluding undecided : Will definitely vote



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 2,182 1,145 1,037 649 802 730 859 1,178 144 596 637 566 383 1,322 859


Fianna Fail 605 340 266 127 180 299 150 398 57 94 270 126 114 312 294

28% 30% 26% 20% 22% 41% 18% 34% 39% 16% 42% 22% 30% 24% 34%

Fine Gael 506 248 258 128 190 187 241 210 55 136 106 131 132 306 200

23% 22% 25% 20% 24% 26% 28% 18% 38% 23% 17% 23% 35% 23% 23%

Labour Party 147 53 94 63 62 21 71 76 - 74 24 46 2 131 15

7% 5% 9% 10% 8% 3% 8% 6% - 12% 4% 8% 1% 10% 2%

Green Party 30 12 18 6 14 10 11 19 - 10 9 4 7 17 13

1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% - 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2%

Sinn Fein 395 257 138 153 142 100 122 250 23 112 127 92 64 214 181

18% 22% 13% 24% 18% 14% 14% 21% 16% 19% 20% 16% 17% 16% 21%


23% 21% 25% 26% 27% 16% 31% 19% 7% 28% 16% 29% 16% 26% 18%

Don’t know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



Adjusted Party Support : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?



Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 2,182 605 506 147 30 395 499 - 2,182 2,182 - - - 822 882 478

Unweighted Total 589 169 138 30 8 119 125 - 589 589 - - - 206 253 130

Fianna Fail 605 605 - - - - - - 605 605 - - - 218 211 176

28% 100% - - - - - - 28% 28% - - - 27% 24% 37%

Fine Gael 506 - 506 - - - - - 506 506 - - - 185 236 84

23% - 100% - - - - - 23% 23% - - - 22% 27% 18%

Labour Party 147 - - 147 - - - - 147 147 - - - 16 101 30

7% - - 100% - - - - 7% 7% - - - 2% 11% 6%

Green Party 30 - - - 30 - - - 30 30 - - - 16 5 9

1% - - - 100% - - - 1% 1% - - - 2% 1% 2%

Sinn Fein 395 - - - - 395 - - 395 395 - - - 165 154 76

18% - - - - 100% - - 18% 18% - - - 20% 17% 16%

Independent / Other 499 - - - - - 499 - 499 499 - - - 222 175 101

23% - - - - - 100% - 23% 23% - - - 27% 20% 21%

Don’t know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



Adjusted Party Support - Independents Analysis : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?Q8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your first preference vote?




Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 2,182 1,145 1,037 649 802 730 859 1,178 144 596 637 566 383 1,322 859


Fianna Fail 605 340 266 127 180 299 150 398 57 94 270 126 114 312 294

28% 30% 26% 20% 22% 41% 18% 34% 39% 16% 42% 22% 30% 24% 34%

Fine Gael 506 248 258 128 190 187 241 210 55 136 106 131 132 306 200

23% 22% 25% 20% 24% 26% 28% 18% 38% 23% 17% 23% 35% 23% 23%

Labour Party 147 53 94 63 62 21 71 76 - 74 24 46 2 131 15

7% 5% 9% 10% 8% 3% 8% 6% - 12% 4% 8% 1% 10% 2%

Green Party 45 26 18 17 17 10 26 19 - 22 9 7 7 28 16

2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% - 4% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%

Workers Party 23 5 18 5 11 6 13 10 - 3 6 9 5 9 14

1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2%

Sinn Fein 395 257 138 153 142 100 122 250 23 112 127 92 64 214 181

18% 22% 13% 24% 18% 14% 14% 21% 16% 19% 20% 16% 17% 16% 21%

Socialist Party - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Anti-Austerity Alliance / People Before Profit Alliance

94 38 56 20 41 32 30 64 - 53 32 9 - 92 2

4% 3% 5% 3% 5% 4% 3% 5% - 9% 5% 2% - 7% 0%

RENUA Ireland - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Social Democrats 31 29 2 8 17 6 10 21 - 13 7 8 3 22 9

1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% - 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%

Independent Alliance 83 43 41 35 32 16 50 33 - 40 34 - 9 52 31

4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 2% 6% 3% - 7% 5% - 2% 4% 4%

Other Independent candidate 254 106 148 91 110 53 148 96 10 49 22 138 45 156 98

12% 9% 14% 14% 14% 7% 17% 8% 7% 8% 3% 24% 12% 12% 11%

Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



Adjusted Party Support - Independents Analysis : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?Q8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your first preference vote?



Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 2,182 605 506 147 30 395 499 - 2,182 2,182 - - - 822 882 478

Unweighted Total 589 169 138 30 8 119 125 - 589 589 - - - 206 253 130

Fianna Fail 605 605 - - - - - - 605 605 - - - 218 211 176

28% 100% - - - - - - 28% 28% - - - 27% 24% 37%

Fine Gael 506 - 506 - - - - - 506 506 - - - 185 236 84

23% - 100% - - - - - 23% 23% - - - 22% 27% 18%

Labour Party 147 - - 147 - - - - 147 147 - - - 16 101 30

7% - - 100% - - - - 7% 7% - - - 2% 11% 6%

Green Party 45 - - - 30 - 14 - 45 45 - - - 16 8 21

2% - - - 100% - 3% - 2% 2% - - - 2% 1% 4%

Workers Party 23 - - - - - 23 - 23 23 - - - 13 2 8

1% - - - - - 5% - 1% 1% - - - 2% 0% 2%

Sinn Fein 395 - - - - 395 - - 395 395 - - - 165 154 76

18% - - - - 100% - - 18% 18% - - - 20% 17% 16%

Socialist Party - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


94 - - - - - 94 - 94 94 - - - 27 48 19

4% - - - - - 19% - 4% 4% - - - 3% 5% 4%

RENUA Ireland - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Social Democrats 31 - - - - - 31 - 31 31 - - - 17 13 -

1% - - - - - 6% - 1% 1% - - - 2% 2% -

Independent Alliance 83 - - - - - 83 - 83 83 - - - 51 4 29

4% - - - - - 17% - 4% 4% - - - 6% 0% 6%

Other Independent candidate 254 - - - - - 254 - 254 254 - - - 114 105 35

12% - - - - - 51% - 12% 12% - - - 14% 12% 7%

Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



Independents Analysis : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?Q8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your first preference vote?

BaseAll intend to vote Independent / Other : Will definitely vote



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 499 235 264 171 215 113 264 225 10 169 100 166 63 343 156


Fianna Fail - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Fine Gael - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Labour Party - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Green Party 14 14 - 11 3 - 14 - - 11 - 3 - 11 3

3% 6% - 7% 1% - 5% - - 7% - 2% - 3% 2%

Workers Party 23 5 18 5 11 6 13 10 - 3 6 9 5 9 14

5% 2% 7% 3% 5% 6% 5% 4% - 2% 6% 5% 8% 3% 9%

Sinn Fein - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Socialist Party - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


94 38 56 20 41 32 30 64 - 53 32 9 - 92 2

19% 16% 21% 12% 19% 28% 11% 29% - 31% 32% 5% - 27% 1%

Anti-Austerity Alliance - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

RENUA Ireland - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Social Democrats 31 29 2 8 17 6 10 21 - 13 7 8 3 22 9

6% 12% 1% 5% 8% 5% 4% 9% - 8% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6%

Independent Alliance 83 43 41 35 32 16 50 33 - 40 34 - 9 52 31

17% 18% 15% 21% 15% 14% 19% 15% - 24% 34% - 15% 15% 20%







Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 499 235 264 171 215 113 264 225 10 169 100 166 63 343 156


Other Independent candidate 254 106 148 91 110 53 148 96 10 49 22 138 45 156 98

51% 45% 56% 53% 51% 47% 56% 43% 100% 29% 22% 83% 72% 46% 63%

Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -






Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 499 - - - - - 499 - 499 499 - - - 222 175 101

Unweighted Total 125 - - - - - 125 - 125 125 - - - 55 45 25

Fianna Fail - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Fine Gael - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Labour Party - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Green Party 14 - - - - - 14 - 14 14 - - - - 3 11

3% - - - - - 3% - 3% 3% - - - - 2% 11%

Workers Party 23 - - - - - 23 - 23 23 - - - 13 2 8

5% - - - - - 5% - 5% 5% - - - 6% 1% 8%

Sinn Fein - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Socialist Party - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


94 - - - - - 94 - 94 94 - - - 27 48 19

19% - - - - - 19% - 19% 19% - - - 12% 27% 18%

Anti-Austerity Alliance - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

RENUA Ireland - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Social Democrats 31 - - - - - 31 - 31 31 - - - 17 13 -

6% - - - - - 6% - 6% 6% - - - 8% 8% -

Independent Alliance 83 - - - - - 83 - 83 83 - - - 51 4 29

17% - - - - - 17% - 17% 17% - - - 23% 2% 29%






Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 499 - - - - - 499 - 499 499 - - - 222 175 101

Unweighted Total 125 - - - - - 125 - 125 125 - - - 55 45 25

Other Independent candidate 254 - - - - - 254 - 254 254 - - - 114 105 35

51% - - - - - 51% - 51% 51% - - - 51% 60% 34%

Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -






Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


In favour of a cross border pollbeing held

2,039 1,041 999 708 757 574 836 1,072 132 574 542 626 297 1,287 752

63% 67% 59% 64% 66% 59% 64% 63% 61% 63% 63% 74% 49% 65% 61%

Against a cross border poll being held

551 291 261 162 179 211 257 284 11 210 129 80 133 398 154

17% 19% 16% 15% 16% 22% 20% 17% 5% 23% 15% 9% 22% 20% 12%


20% 14% 25% 21% 18% 20% 17% 20% 33% 14% 22% 16% 29% 15% 27%





Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


In favour of a cross border pollbeing held

2,039 388 409 64 18 385 372 402 1,878 1,641 237 58 71 783 865 391

63% 58% 66% 56% 57% 82% 64% 54% 65% 68% 52% 52% 38% 63% 65% 60%

Against a cross border poll being held

551 139 149 23 11 51 82 96 513 442 70 17 20 162 230 159

17% 21% 24% 20% 32% 11% 14% 13% 18% 18% 15% 15% 11% 13% 17% 24%

Don’t know/no opinion 636 138 57 28 4 36 128 247 486 336 150 36 95 298 236 102

20% 21% 9% 24% 11% 8% 22% 33% 17% 14% 33% 33% 51% 24% 18% 16%






Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


In favour of a United Ireland 2,166 1,077 1,089 755 784 627 829 1,175 162 618 525 666 356 1,383 783

67% 70% 65% 68% 69% 64% 63% 69% 75% 68% 61% 79% 59% 69% 63%


15% 16% 14% 14% 15% 16% 17% 14% 8% 20% 17% 9% 14% 17% 12%


18% 14% 21% 17% 17% 19% 19% 17% 17% 13% 22% 12% 27% 14% 24%





Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


In favour of a United Ireland 2,166 417 426 64 18 394 428 419 1,990 1,719 271 58 85 874 929 363

67% 63% 69% 55% 57% 84% 74% 56% 69% 71% 59% 52% 46% 70% 70% 56%

Against a United Ireland 484 133 118 22 6 38 67 100 437 371 66 18 28 139 209 137

15% 20% 19% 19% 19% 8% 11% 13% 15% 15% 14% 16% 15% 11% 16% 21%

Don’t know/no opinion 577 116 71 30 8 39 87 225 450 330 120 35 74 230 194 153

18% 17% 12% 26% 25% 8% 15% 30% 16% 14% 26% 32% 39% 19% 15% 23%



Q.9c And would you be in favour of or against a united Ireland if it meant ...You would have to pay less tax



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236



72% 76% 68% 74% 72% 68% 71% 72% 78% 73% 68% 80% 62% 73% 70%


10% 10% 10% 11% 9% 12% 10% 11% 4% 9% 14% 7% 11% 11% 9%

Don’t know 585 214 371 167 220 197 253 293 39 159 151 109 166 323 262

18% 14% 22% 15% 19% 20% 19% 17% 18% 17% 18% 13% 27% 16% 21%



Q.9c And would you be in favour of or against a united Ireland if it meant ...You would have to pay less tax


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653



72% 69% 76% 54% 40% 84% 81% 60% 74% 75% 67% 64% 53% 69% 72% 76%


10% 16% 10% 14% 6% 7% 7% 10% 10% 10% 10% 16% 12% 10% 11% 10%

Don’t know 585 104 90 38 17 43 71 222 474 366 108 22 65 261 228 96

18% 16% 15% 33% 53% 9% 12% 30% 16% 15% 24% 20% 35% 21% 17% 15%



Q.9c And would you be in favour of or against a united Ireland if it meant ...There would be no change in the amount of tax you pay



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236



64% 68% 60% 65% 65% 61% 61% 64% 80% 59% 63% 78% 53% 64% 64%


14% 15% 14% 16% 12% 15% 17% 14% 2% 17% 18% 8% 14% 15% 14%

Don’t know 700 269 431 204 261 235 284 377 39 211 165 121 203 427 273

22% 17% 26% 18% 23% 24% 22% 22% 18% 23% 19% 14% 33% 21% 22%



Q.9c And would you be in favour of or against a united Ireland if it meant ...There would be no change in the amount of tax you pay


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653



64% 60% 71% 33% 28% 76% 72% 54% 66% 68% 60% 41% 45% 67% 64% 58%


14% 22% 12% 25% 19% 13% 11% 11% 15% 15% 15% 14% 16% 10% 14% 25%

Don’t know 700 121 106 48 17 52 100 255 550 434 116 49 72 284 302 114

22% 18% 17% 41% 53% 11% 17% 34% 19% 18% 25% 45% 39% 23% 23% 17%



Q.9c And would you be in favour of or against a united Ireland if it meant ...You would have to pay more tax



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


In favour of a United Ireland 1,046 545 502 386 364 296 480 492 74 235 264 399 149 697 350

32% 35% 30% 35% 32% 30% 37% 29% 35% 26% 31% 47% 25% 35% 28%

Against a United Ireland 1,251 639 612 423 443 385 493 692 66 412 349 262 228 759 492

39% 41% 36% 38% 39% 39% 38% 41% 31% 45% 41% 31% 38% 38% 40%

Don’t know 930 362 568 299 336 295 337 518 75 269 248 182 231 535 395

29% 23% 34% 27% 29% 30% 26% 30% 35% 29% 29% 22% 38% 27% 32%



Q.9c And would you be in favour of or against a united Ireland if it meant ...You would have to pay more tax


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


In favour of a United Ireland 1,046 198 235 19 9 191 234 162 975 875 100 23 39 429 429 188

32% 30% 38% 16% 29% 40% 40% 22% 34% 36% 22% 21% 21% 35% 32% 29%

Against a United Ireland 1,251 291 238 47 6 180 209 280 1,141 925 216 24 75 449 524 278

39% 44% 39% 41% 18% 38% 36% 38% 40% 38% 47% 22% 40% 36% 39% 43%

Don’t know 930 176 143 49 17 101 139 303 761 620 141 64 72 365 378 186

29% 27% 23% 43% 53% 21% 24% 41% 26% 26% 31% 58% 39% 29% 28% 29%



Q10 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


Would definitely vote 2,420 1,209 1,211 736 874 810 1,001 1,267 152 683 673 628 436 1,480 939

75% 78% 72% 66% 76% 83% 76% 74% 71% 75% 78% 74% 72% 74% 76%

Would probably vote 457 198 259 195 186 76 201 227 28 138 75 117 126 285 172

14% 13% 15% 18% 16% 8% 15% 13% 13% 15% 9% 14% 21% 14% 14%

Might/might not vote 111 37 74 52 22 36 51 60 - 32 41 15 23 93 18

3% 2% 4% 5% 2% 4% 4% 4% - 3% 5% 2% 4% 5% 1%

Would probably not vote 71 41 30 49 15 7 14 36 21 8 14 46 2 34 37

2% 3% 2% 4% 1% 1% 1% 2% 10% 1% 2% 5% 0% 2% 3%

Would definitely not vote 116 36 80 58 20 38 37 74 5 37 41 29 9 67 48

4% 2% 5% 5% 2% 4% 3% 4% 2% 4% 5% 3% 1% 3% 4%

Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT)

53 25 28 16 27 10 7 37 9 16 17 9 11 32 21

2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2%

- ANY Would Vote 2,877 1,407 1,470 931 1,059 886 1,202 1,494 180 821 748 745 563 1,765 1,111

89% 91% 87% 84% 93% 91% 92% 88% 84% 90% 87% 88% 93% 89% 90%

- ANY Would Not 186 77 110 108 34 44 51 110 26 45 55 74 11 101 86

6% 5% 7% 10% 3% 5% 4% 6% 12% 5% 6% 9% 2% 5% 7%

Mean 4.57 4.65 4.51 4.38 4.68 4.67 4.62 4.55 4.46 4.58 4.57 4.52 4.64 4.57 4.58

Standard deviation 0.94 0.85 1.01 1.11 0.74 0.90 0.85 0.99 1.07 0.93 1.01 1.01 0.71 0.92 0.97

Maximum 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5



Q10 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


Would definitely vote 2,420 575 515 103 26 408 445 346 2,420 2,420 - - - 930 976 514

75% 87% 84% 89% 81% 87% 77% 47% 84% 100% - - - 75% 73% 79%

Would probably vote 457 74 81 12 4 51 117 118 457 - 457 - - 189 183 85

14% 11% 13% 11% 12% 11% 20% 16% 16% - 100% - - 15% 14% 13%

Might/might not vote 111 16 8 - - 12 7 68 - - - 111 - 41 61 8

3% 2% 1% - - 3% 1% 9% - - - 100% - 3% 5% 1%

Would probably not vote 71 - 8 - 2 - - 60 - - - - 71 8 53 10

2% - 1% - 6% - - 8% - - - - 38% 1% 4% 1%

Would definitely not vote 116 - - - - - 13 103 - - - - 116 57 27 32

4% - - - - - 2% 14% - - - - 62% 5% 2% 5%


53 - 3 - - - - 49 - - - - - 17 31 4

2% - 1% - - - - 7% - - - - - 1% 2% 1%

- ANY Would Vote 2,877 649 595 115 30 460 563 464 2,877 2,420 457 - - 1,119 1,159 599

89% 98% 97% 100% 94% 97% 97% 62% 100% 100% 100% - - 90% 87% 92%

- ANY Would Not 186 - 8 - 2 - 13 164 - - - - 186 65 80 41

6% - 1% - 6% - 2% 22% - - - - 100% 5% 6% 6%

Mean 4.57 4.84 4.80 4.89 4.68 4.84 4.69 3.78 4.84 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.38 4.57 4.56 4.60

Standard deviation 0.94 0.43 0.52 0.31 0.78 0.43 0.70 1.49 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.95 0.91 0.97

Maximum 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 5 5 5



Q11 And to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in the last General Election?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


Fianna Fail 619 326 294 89 194 337 167 418 35 106 266 132 115 355 264

19% 21% 17% 8% 17% 34% 13% 25% 16% 12% 31% 16% 19% 18% 21%

Fine Gael 751 347 404 209 278 265 391 305 55 215 167 218 151 488 263

23% 22% 24% 19% 24% 27% 30% 18% 25% 23% 19% 26% 25% 24% 21%

Labour Party 73 20 52 27 32 14 45 27 - 40 13 16 3 67 6

2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% - 4% 1% 2% 1% 3% 0%

Green Party 22 12 11 16 1 6 13 10 - 18 - - 4 22 -

1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% - 2% - - 1% 1% -

Workers Party 4 - 4 4 - - - 4 - - - - 4 - 4

0% - 0% 0% - - - 0% - - - - 1% - 0%

Sinn Fein 500 318 183 205 170 125 171 296 33 160 135 116 90 280 220

16% 21% 11% 18% 15% 13% 13% 17% 15% 17% 16% 14% 15% 14% 18%

Socialist Party 9 6 3 - 9 - 6 3 - 6 - 3 - 9 -

0% 0% 0% - 1% - 0% 0% - 1% - 0% - 0% -

Independent/Other 503 210 293 167 233 103 238 225 40 140 106 175 82 285 218

16% 14% 17% 15% 20% 11% 18% 13% 19% 15% 12% 21% 14% 14% 18%

Anti-Austerity Alliance - People Before Profit Alliance (AAA-PBP)

49 23 26 5 31 13 12 36 - 36 12 1 - 47 2

2% 2% 2% 0% 3% 1% 1% 2% - 4% 1% 0% - 2% 0%


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Don’t know 226 75 152 96 82 48 114 106 7 68 36 72 50 165 61

7% 5% 9% 9% 7% 5% 9% 6% 3% 7% 4% 9% 8% 8% 5%

Did not vote 381 161 220 254 86 40 134 205 42 88 100 107 86 223 158

12% 10% 13% 23% 8% 4% 10% 12% 20% 10% 12% 13% 14% 11% 13%

RENUA Ireland - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -






Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236


Social Democrats 23 23 - 13 3 7 3 20 - 10 8 1 4 15 8

1% 2% - 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% - 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1%

Independent Alliance 66 25 40 25 24 18 15 46 4 27 18 2 19 33 32

2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 2% 0% 3% 2% 3%





Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


Fianna Fail 619 555 6 - - 1 14 43 601 535 66 14 4 237 211 171

19% 84% 1% - - 0% 2% 6% 21% 22% 14% 13% 2% 19% 16% 26%

Fine Gael 751 32 574 23 11 11 23 76 730 644 86 7 11 255 383 113

23% 5% 93% 20% 35% 2% 4% 10% 25% 27% 19% 6% 6% 20% 29% 17%

Labour Party 73 1 - 55 - - 5 11 73 70 3 - - 15 43 15

2% 0% - 48% - - 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% - - 1% 3% 2%

Green Party 22 - 8 - 14 - - 1 22 18 4 - - 4 8 10

1% - 1% - 42% - - 0% 1% 1% 1% - - 0% 1% 2%

Workers Party 4 - - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% - 1% - - 0% - -

Sinn Fein 500 3 6 6 2 445 18 20 477 422 55 20 2 209 196 95

16% 0% 1% 5% 6% 94% 3% 3% 17% 17% 12% 18% 1% 17% 15% 15%

Socialist Party 9 - - - - - 9 - 9 6 3 - - 6 3 -

0% - - - - - 2% - 0% 0% 1% - - 1% 0% -

Independent/Other 503 17 3 4 - 5 344 130 451 340 110 5 46 235 168 100

16% 3% 0% 4% - 1% 59% 17% 16% 14% 24% 5% 25% 19% 13% 15%


49 5 - - - - 43 1 49 49 - - - 14 29 7

2% 1% - - - - 7% 0% 2% 2% - - - 1% 2% 1%


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Don’t know 226 3 2 6 5 3 21 185 189 152 36 20 2 95 94 38

7% 1% 0% 6% 16% 1% 4% 25% 7% 6% 8% 18% 1% 8% 7% 6%

Did not vote 381 43 18 20 - 6 38 256 183 111 72 44 121 134 169 77

12% 7% 3% 17% - 1% 7% 34% 6% 5% 16% 40% 65% 11% 13% 12%

RENUA Ireland - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -





Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653


Social Democrats 23 3 - - - - 20 - 23 23 - - - 12 11 -

1% 0% - - - - 3% - 1% 1% - - - 1% 1% -

Independent Alliance 66 2 - - - 1 42 21 66 47 18 - - 23 16 27

2% 0% - - - 0% 7% 3% 2% 2% 4% - - 2% 1% 4%




Base : All Voters Excluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 2,642 1,325 1,317 767 985 890 1,078 1,397 166 770 725 675 473 1,617 1,024


Fianna Fail 631 337 294 99 194 338 177 419 35 116 266 134 115 366 264

24% 25% 22% 13% 20% 38% 16% 30% 21% 15% 37% 20% 24% 23% 26%

Fine Gael 751 347 404 209 278 265 391 305 55 215 167 218 151 488 263

28% 26% 31% 27% 28% 30% 36% 22% 33% 28% 23% 32% 32% 30% 26%

Labour Party 73 20 52 27 32 14 45 27 - 40 13 16 3 67 6

3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2% - 5% 2% 2% 1% 4% 1%

Green Party 22 12 11 16 1 6 13 10 - 18 - - 4 22 -

1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% - 2% - - 1% 1% -

Workers Party 4 - 4 4 - - - 4 - - - - 4 - 4

0% - 0% 1% - - - 0% - - - - 1% - 0%

Sinn Fein 500 318 183 205 170 125 171 296 33 160 135 116 90 280 220

19% 24% 14% 27% 17% 14% 16% 21% 20% 21% 19% 17% 19% 17% 21%

Socialist Party 11 8 3 - 11 - 8 3 - 8 - 3 - 11 -

0% 1% 0% - 1% - 1% 0% - 1% - 0% - 1% -

Independent/Other 512 212 300 167 242 104 242 230 40 140 106 184 83 287 225

19% 16% 23% 22% 25% 12% 22% 16% 24% 18% 15% 27% 17% 18% 22%


49 23 26 5 31 13 12 36 - 36 12 1 - 47 2

2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 3% - 5% 2% 0% - 3% 0%


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

RENUA Ireland - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Social Democrats 23 23 - 13 3 7 3 20 - 10 8 1 4 15 8

1% 2% - 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% - 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1%

Independent Alliance 66 25 40 25 24 18 15 46 4 27 18 2 19 33 32

2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 2% 0% 4% 2% 3%







Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 2,642 1,325 1,317 767 985 890 1,078 1,397 166 770 725 675 473 1,617 1,024







Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 2,642 630 596 89 27 463 527 310 2,518 2,169 349 46 71 1,014 1,088 539


Fianna Fail 631 567 6 - - 1 14 43 613 547 66 14 4 237 223 171

24% 90% 1% - - 0% 3% 14% 24% 25% 19% 30% 6% 23% 20% 32%

Fine Gael 751 32 574 23 11 11 23 76 730 644 86 7 11 255 383 113

28% 5% 96% 26% 42% 2% 4% 25% 29% 30% 25% 15% 15% 25% 35% 21%

Labour Party 73 1 - 55 - - 5 11 73 70 3 - - 15 43 15

3% 0% - 62% - - 1% 4% 3% 3% 1% - - 1% 4% 3%

Green Party 22 - 8 - 14 - - 1 22 18 4 - - 4 8 10

1% - 1% - 51% - - 0% 1% 1% 1% - - 0% 1% 2%

Workers Party 4 - - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% - 1% - - 0% - -

Sinn Fein 500 3 6 6 2 445 18 20 477 422 55 20 2 209 196 95

19% 0% 1% 7% 8% 96% 3% 7% 19% 19% 16% 42% 3% 21% 18% 18%

Socialist Party 11 - - - - - 11 - 11 8 3 - - 6 3 1

0% - - - - - 2% - 0% 0% 1% - - 1% 0% 0%

Independent/Other 512 17 3 4 - 5 346 137 451 340 110 6 54 236 177 100

19% 3% 0% 5% - 1% 66% 44% 18% 16% 32% 12% 76% 23% 16% 19%


49 5 - - - - 43 1 49 49 - - - 14 29 7

2% 1% - - - - 8% 0% 2% 2% - - - 1% 3% 1%


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

RENUA Ireland - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Social Democrats 23 3 - - - - 20 - 23 23 - - - 12 11 -

1% 1% - - - - 4% - 1% 1% - - - 1% 1% -

Independent Alliance 66 2 - - - 1 42 21 66 47 18 - - 23 16 27

2% 0% - - - 0% 8% 7% 3% 2% 5% - - 2% 1% 5%






Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 2,642 630 596 89 27 463 527 310 2,518 2,169 349 46 71 1,014 1,088 539




Q12 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Social Class Region Area


Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,166 1,275 998 1,410 1,815 215 986 894 936 624 2,104 1,336


Yes, eligible 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236

94% 92% 96% 95% 90% 98% 93% 94% 100% 93% 96% 90% 97% 95% 93%

No – not eligible 192 128 64 51 124 18 88 104 - 68 33 84 7 106 86

6% 8% 4% 4% 10% 2% 6% 6% - 7% 4% 9% 1% 5% 6%


21 12 9 8 9 4 12 9 - 3 - 9 9 7 14

1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% - 0% - 1% 1% 0% 1%



Q12 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Party Support Q9 Likelihood Consitituency Seats

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,440 678 619 128 33 474 595 913 2,900 2,437 462 124 330 1,292 1,439 709


Yes, eligible 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653

94% 98% 99% 90% 100% 100% 98% 82% 99% 99% 99% 89% 57% 96% 93% 92%

No – not eligible 192 14 - 12 - 2 13 152 23 17 5 10 129 46 90 56

6% 2% - 10% - 0% 2% 17% 1% 1% 1% 8% 39% 4% 6% 8%


21 - 4 - - - 0 17 - - - 4 14 3 18 -

1% - 1% - - - 0% 2% - - - 3% 4% 0% 1% -



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236

Unweighted 911 419 492 231 371 309 431 434 46 265 240 239 167 604 307

Gender

Male 1,545 1,545 - 544 540 461 595 808 142 406 395 404 340 914 631

48% 100% - 49% 47% 47% 45% 47% 66% 44% 46% 48% 56% 46% 51%

Female 1,681 - 1,681 564 603 515 715 894 73 509 466 439 267 1,076 605

52% - 100% 51% 53% 53% 55% 53% 34% 56% 54% 52% 44% 54% 49%

Age

-34 1,108 544 564 1,108 - - 513 488 106 266 270 379 193 676 432

34% 35% 34% 100% - - 39% 29% 49% 29% 31% 45% 32% 34% 35%

35-54 1,142 540 603 - 1,142 - 531 573 39 349 293 280 221 695 448

35% 35% 36% - 100% - 41% 34% 18% 38% 34% 33% 36% 35% 36%

55+ 977 461 515 - - 977 266 640 70 300 298 184 194 620 356

30% 30% 31% - - 100% 20% 38% 33% 33% 35% 22% 32% 31% 29%

Social Class

ABC1 1,310 595 715 513 531 266 1,310 - - 484 289 372 165 948 362

41% 38% 43% 46% 46% 27% 100% - - 53% 34% 44% 27% 48% 29%

C2DE 1,702 808 894 488 573 640 - 1,702 - 431 507 392 372 1,028 674

53% 52% 53% 44% 50% 66% - 100% - 47% 59% 46% 61% 52% 55%

F 215 142 73 106 39 70 - - 215 - 65 79 71 15 200

7% 9% 4% 10% 3% 7% - - 100% - 8% 9% 12% 1% 16%

Region

Dublin 915 406 509 266 349 300 484 431 - 915 - - - 915 -

28% 26% 30% 24% 31% 31% 37% 25% - 100% - - - 46% -

Lein-ster 861 395 466 270 293 298 289 507 65 - 861 - - 390 471

27% 26% 28% 24% 26% 31% 22% 30% 30% - 100% - - 20% 38%

Mun-ster 843 404 439 379 280 184 372 392 79 - - 843 - 495 348

26% 26% 26% 34% 24% 19% 28% 23% 37% - - 100% - 25% 28%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236

Unweighted 911 419 492 231 371 309 431 434 46 265 240 239 167 604 307

Conn/Ulster 608 340 267 193 221 194 165 372 71 - - - 608 191 417

19% 22% 16% 17% 19% 20% 13% 22% 33% - - - 100% 10% 34%

Area

Urban 1,991 914 1,076 676 695 620 948 1,028 15 915 390 495 191 1,991 -

62% 59% 64% 61% 61% 64% 72% 60% 7% 100% 45% 59% 31% 100% -

Rural 1,236 631 605 432 448 356 362 674 200 - 471 348 417 - 1,236

38% 41% 36% 39% 39% 36% 28% 40% 93% - 55% 41% 69% - 100%

Party Support

Fianna Fail 665 350 315 137 205 323 181 426 58 117 270 145 132 362 302

21% 23% 19% 12% 18% 33% 14% 25% 27% 13% 31% 17% 22% 18% 24%

Fine Gael 615 321 295 160 240 216 303 258 55 173 120 170 152 390 226

19% 21% 18% 14% 21% 22% 23% 15% 25% 19% 14% 20% 25% 20% 18%

Labour Party 115 42 73 54 48 14 57 58 - 58 17 39 1 103 13

4% 3% 4% 5% 4% 1% 4% 3% - 6% 2% 5% 0% 5% 1%

Green Party 33 15 18 10 16 7 12 20 - 13 9 5 4 18 15

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Sinn Fein 472 304 168 182 165 125 143 294 35 138 143 105 86 259 212

15% 20% 10% 16% 14% 13% 11% 17% 16% 15% 17% 13% 14% 13% 17%


18% 17% 19% 20% 21% 13% 20% 18% 6% 21% 15% 21% 13% 19% 17%

Don't Know / Would not 745 255 490 345 232 167 352 339 53 218 174 202 150 485 260

23% 16% 29% 31% 20% 17% 27% 20% 25% 24% 20% 24% 25% 24% 21%

Likelihood

Would vote 2,877 1,407 1,470 931 1,059 886 1,202 1,494 180 821 748 745 563 1,765 1,111

89% 91% 87% 84% 93% 91% 92% 88% 84% 90% 87% 88% 93% 89% 90%

Would Def vote 2,420 1,209 1,211 736 874 810 1,001 1,267 152 683 673 628 436 1,480 939

75% 78% 72% 66% 76% 83% 76% 74% 71% 75% 78% 74% 72% 74% 76%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236

Unweighted 911 419 492 231 371 309 431 434 46 265 240 239 167 604 307

Would Prob vote 457 198 259 195 186 76 201 227 28 138 75 117 126 285 172

14% 13% 15% 18% 16% 8% 15% 13% 13% 15% 9% 14% 21% 14% 14%

Might/might not 111 37 74 52 22 36 51 60 - 32 41 15 23 93 18

3% 2% 4% 5% 2% 4% 4% 4% - 3% 5% 2% 4% 5% 1%

Would not Vote 186 77 110 108 34 44 51 110 26 45 55 74 11 101 86

6% 5% 7% 10% 3% 5% 4% 6% 12% 5% 6% 9% 2% 5% 7%

Consitituency Seats

5 Seats 1,243 575 668 359 455 428 425 736 81 358 447 194 245 732 511

39% 37% 40% 32% 40% 44% 32% 43% 38% 39% 52% 23% 40% 37% 41%

4 Seats 1,331 661 671 491 463 377 631 621 80 421 99 549 262 987 345

41% 43% 40% 44% 41% 39% 48% 36% 37% 46% 11% 65% 43% 50% 28%

3 Seats 653 310 343 258 224 171 254 345 54 136 315 100 101 272 381

20% 20% 20% 23% 20% 18% 19% 20% 25% 15% 37% 12% 17% 14% 31%

Marital Status

Single 985 507 478 713 178 94 376 514 94 230 251 309 194 592 393

31% 33% 28% 64% 16% 10% 29% 30% 44% 25% 29% 37% 32% 30% 32%

Married 1,632 779 853 249 784 599 746 806 80 552 402 367 311 1,036 597

51% 50% 51% 23% 69% 61% 57% 47% 37% 60% 47% 44% 51% 52% 48%

Cohabiting 201 113 88 118 73 10 78 117 6 39 64 74 25 128 73

6% 7% 5% 11% 6% 1% 6% 7% 3% 4% 7% 9% 4% 6% 6%

Widowed 227 67 160 - 9 218 51 154 22 52 103 34 38 152 75

7% 4% 10% - 1% 22% 4% 9% 10% 6% 12% 4% 6% 8% 6%

Seperated / Divorced 177 78 99 27 94 56 54 110 13 37 41 59 40 78 99

5% 5% 6% 2% 8% 6% 4% 6% 6% 4% 5% 7% 7% 4% 8%

Civil Partnership 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 - - 5 - - - 5 -

0% - 0% - 0% - 0% - - 1% - - - 0% -



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236

Unweighted 911 419 492 231 371 309 431 434 46 265 240 239 167 604 307

How many adults including yourself (aged 15+) live in the Household?

1 483 230 253 88 130 265 157 304 22 84 173 108 118 238 245

15% 15% 15% 8% 11% 27% 12% 18% 10% 9% 20% 13% 19% 12% 20%

2 1,617 781 836 449 625 542 694 861 62 551 339 421 307 1,008 609

50% 51% 50% 41% 55% 56% 53% 51% 29% 60% 39% 50% 50% 51% 49%

3 551 288 263 227 224 101 201 284 66 113 174 145 120 332 219

17% 19% 16% 20% 20% 10% 15% 17% 31% 12% 20% 17% 20% 17% 18%

4 338 154 184 190 96 51 157 153 28 84 120 109 24 236 101

10% 10% 11% 17% 8% 5% 12% 9% 13% 9% 14% 13% 4% 12% 8%

5 171 73 99 104 60 8 67 83 22 54 42 41 35 117 54

5% 5% 6% 9% 5% 1% 5% 5% 10% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 4%

6 60 16 45 50 5 5 31 15 14 26 12 19 3 55 5

2% 1% 3% 5% 0% 1% 2% 1% 7% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 0%

7+ 6 4 2 - 2 4 4 2 - 4 2 - - 4 2

0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% - - 0% 0%

Don't Know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Mean 2.47 2.43 2.51 2.93 2.44 2.00 2.54 2.36 3.04 2.53 2.49 2.54 2.28 2.58 2.30

How many children under 15 live in the household?

0 2,028 1,029 999 655 453 921 684 1,177 167 558 564 498 408 1,266 762

63% 67% 59% 59% 40% 94% 52% 69% 78% 61% 66% 59% 67% 64% 62%

1 473 189 284 216 233 24 266 168 39 134 142 144 52 301 172

15% 12% 17% 19% 20% 2% 20% 10% 18% 15% 17% 17% 9% 15% 14%

2 486 223 263 185 288 13 262 218 6 164 92 138 93 320 166

15% 14% 16% 17% 25% 1% 20% 13% 3% 18% 11% 16% 15% 16% 13%

3 170 83 87 39 116 15 66 101 3 54 34 37 44 79 91

5% 5% 5% 4% 10% 2% 5% 6% 1% 6% 4% 4% 7% 4% 7%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236

Unweighted 911 419 492 231 371 309 431 434 46 265 240 239 167 604 307

4 40 1 39 9 32 - 23 17 - 2 14 22 2 22 18

1% 0% 2% 1% 3% - 2% 1% - 0% 2% 3% 0% 1% 1%

5 9 6 3 - 9 - 6 3 - - 2 3 3 - 9

0% 0% 0% - 1% - 0% 0% - - 0% 0% 1% - 1%

6 0 - 0 - 0 - - 0 - 0 - - - 0 -

0% - 0% - 0% - - 0% - 0% - - - 0% -

7+ 20 14 6 5 11 4 4 16 - 2 12 - 5 2 18

1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% - 0% 1% - 1% 0% 1%

Don't Know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Mean 0.71 0.66 0.77 0.70 1.23 0.13 0.87 0.65 0.27 0.71 0.68 0.76 0.71 0.65 0.83

What is your current working status?

Working - Full Time 1,251 733 518 547 599 105 770 468 12 341 300 381 229 767 484

39% 47% 31% 49% 52% 11% 59% 28% 6% 37% 35% 45% 38% 39% 39%

Working - Part Time 346 111 235 159 121 65 147 153 45 78 110 105 52 200 145

11% 7% 14% 14% 11% 7% 11% 9% 21% 9% 13% 12% 9% 10% 12%

Self-Employed 114 94 20 36 52 27 38 32 44 12 30 35 38 47 67

4% 6% 1% 3% 5% 3% 3% 2% 20% 1% 3% 4% 6% 2% 5%

Unemployed 280 169 111 107 118 56 16 265 - 110 44 86 41 173 107

9% 11% 7% 10% 10% 6% 1% 16% - 12% 5% 10% 7% 9% 9%

Home Duties 482 17 465 82 236 165 132 323 27 166 149 99 68 313 169

15% 1% 28% 7% 21% 17% 10% 19% 13% 18% 17% 12% 11% 16% 14%

Retired 556 314 241 - 4 552 149 369 38 163 192 84 117 361 195

17% 20% 14% - 0% 57% 11% 22% 18% 18% 22% 10% 19% 18% 16%

Student, not employed 125 56 69 105 12 8 51 62 12 21 37 41 25 103 22

4% 4% 4% 9% 1% 1% 4% 4% 6% 2% 4% 5% 4% 5% 2%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,227 1,545 1,681 1,108 1,142 977 1,310 1,702 215 915 861 843 608 1,991 1,236

Unweighted 911 419 492 231 371 309 431 434 46 265 240 239 167 604 307

Student, working part-time 73 51 23 72 1 - 7 30 36 23 - 11 38 27 47

2% 3% 1% 6% 0% - 1% 2% 17% 3% - 1% 6% 1% 4%

Number of income earners in the household (include full-time and part-time)

One 1,062 483 579 338 430 293 416 590 56 295 329 246 192 597 465

33% 31% 34% 31% 38% 30% 32% 35% 26% 32% 38% 29% 32% 30% 38%

Two 1,273 643 631 461 585 228 655 540 78 262 344 418 249 746 527

39% 42% 37% 42% 51% 23% 50% 32% 36% 29% 40% 50% 41% 37% 43%

Three 262 149 113 215 21 26 115 97 51 66 65 50 81 161 101

8% 10% 7% 19% 2% 3% 9% 6% 24% 7% 8% 6% 13% 8% 8%

Four 36 18 18 34 2 - 14 6 16 9 17 6 4 22 14

1% 1% 1% 3% 0% - 1% 0% 8% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%

None working at moment 593 252 341 60 105 429 110 469 14 282 106 123 82 465 129

18% 16% 20% 5% 9% 44% 8% 28% 6% 31% 12% 15% 14% 23% 10%

Do you have access to the Internet?

Yes - Broadband 2,589 1,217 1,372 992 1,028 569 1,197 1,219 173 793 675 705 417 1,650 939

80% 79% 82% 90% 90% 58% 91% 72% 81% 87% 78% 84% 69% 83% 76%

Yes - Other Connection 97 60 37 34 37 26 19 73 5 9 9 20 59 36 62

3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 4% 2% 1% 1% 2% 10% 2% 5%

No 540 268 272 81 77 381 93 410 37 113 177 118 132 305 235

17% 17% 16% 7% 7% 39% 7% 24% 17% 12% 21% 14% 22% 15% 19%

CWE

Yes 1,964 1,158 807 492 754 718 791 1,102 72 564 528 489 383 1,202 762

61% 75% 48% 44% 66% 74% 60% 65% 33% 62% 61% 58% 63% 60% 62%

No 1,263 388 875 616 389 258 519 600 143 351 333 354 225 789 474

39% 25% 52% 56% 34% 26% 40% 35% 67% 38% 39% 42% 37% 40% 38%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653

Unweighted 911 199 170 36 10 141 159 196 820 678 142 36 39 331 399 181

Gender

Male 1,545 350 321 42 15 304 259 255 1,407 1,209 198 37 77 575 661 310

48% 53% 52% 36% 45% 64% 45% 34% 49% 50% 43% 33% 41% 46% 50% 47%

Female 1,681 315 295 73 18 168 323 490 1,470 1,211 259 74 110 668 671 343

52% 47% 48% 64% 55% 36% 55% 66% 51% 50% 57% 67% 59% 54% 50% 53%

Age

-34 1,108 137 160 54 10 182 220 345 931 736 195 52 108 359 491 258

34% 21% 26% 46% 31% 39% 38% 46% 32% 30% 43% 47% 58% 29% 37% 40%

35-54 1,142 205 240 48 16 165 236 232 1,059 874 186 22 34 455 463 224

35% 31% 39% 42% 48% 35% 41% 31% 37% 36% 41% 20% 18% 37% 35% 34%

55+ 977 323 216 14 7 125 126 167 886 810 76 36 44 428 377 171

30% 49% 35% 12% 21% 27% 22% 22% 31% 33% 17% 33% 24% 34% 28% 26%

Social Class

ABC1 1,310 181 303 57 12 143 262 352 1,202 1,001 201 51 51 425 631 254

41% 27% 49% 50% 38% 30% 45% 47% 42% 41% 44% 46% 27% 34% 47% 39%

C2DE 1,702 426 258 58 20 294 307 339 1,494 1,267 227 60 110 736 621 345

53% 64% 42% 50% 62% 62% 53% 46% 52% 52% 50% 54% 59% 59% 47% 53%

F 215 58 55 - - 35 14 53 180 152 28 - 26 81 80 54

7% 9% 9% - - 7% 2% 7% 6% 6% 6% - 14% 7% 6% 8%

Region

Dublin 915 117 173 58 13 138 197 218 821 683 138 32 45 358 421 136

28% 18% 28% 50% 41% 29% 34% 29% 29% 28% 30% 29% 24% 29% 32% 21%

Lein-ster 861 270 120 17 9 143 128 174 748 673 75 41 55 447 99 315

27% 41% 19% 15% 29% 30% 22% 23% 26% 28% 16% 37% 30% 36% 7% 48%

Mun-ster 843 145 170 39 5 105 176 202 745 628 117 15 74 194 549 100

26% 22% 28% 34% 16% 22% 30% 27% 26% 26% 26% 14% 40% 16% 41% 15%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653

Unweighted 911 199 170 36 10 141 159 196 820 678 142 36 39 331 399 181

Conn/Ulster 608 132 152 1 4 86 82 150 563 436 126 23 11 245 262 101

19% 20% 25% 1% 14% 18% 14% 20% 20% 18% 28% 21% 6% 20% 20% 16%

Area

Urban 1,991 362 390 103 18 259 374 485 1,765 1,480 285 93 101 732 987 272

62% 55% 63% 89% 55% 55% 64% 65% 61% 61% 62% 84% 54% 59% 74% 42%

Rural 1,236 302 226 13 15 212 208 260 1,111 939 172 18 86 511 345 381

38% 45% 37% 11% 45% 45% 36% 35% 39% 39% 38% 16% 46% 41% 26% 58%

Party Support

Fianna Fail 665 665 - - - - - - 649 575 74 16 - 247 244 174

21% 100% - - - - - - 23% 24% 16% 14% - 20% 18% 27%

Fine Gael 615 - 615 - - - - - 595 515 81 8 8 220 299 96

19% - 100% - - - - - 21% 21% 18% 7% 4% 18% 22% 15%

Labour Party 115 - - 115 - - - - 115 103 12 - - 17 81 18

4% - - 100% - - - - 4% 4% 3% - - 1% 6% 3%

Green Party 33 - - - 33 - - - 30 26 4 - 2 16 6 10

1% - - - 100% - - - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 0% 2%

Sinn Fein 472 - - - - 472 - - 460 408 51 12 - 191 185 96

15% - - - - 100% - - 16% 17% 11% 11% - 15% 14% 15%


18% - - - - - 100% - 20% 18% 26% 6% 7% 20% 14% 22%

Don't Know / Would not 745 - - - - - - 745 464 346 118 68 164 301 326 117

23% - - - - - - 100% 16% 14% 26% 61% 88% 24% 25% 18%

Likelihood

Would vote 2,877 649 595 115 30 460 563 464 2,877 2,420 457 - - 1,119 1,159 599

89% 98% 97% 100% 94% 97% 97% 62% 100% 100% 100% - - 90% 87% 92%

Would Def vote 2,420 575 515 103 26 408 445 346 2,420 2,420 - - - 930 976 514

75% 87% 84% 89% 81% 87% 77% 47% 84% 100% - - - 75% 73% 79%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653

Unweighted 911 199 170 36 10 141 159 196 820 678 142 36 39 331 399 181

Would Prob vote 457 74 81 12 4 51 117 118 457 - 457 - - 189 183 85

14% 11% 13% 11% 12% 11% 20% 16% 16% - 100% - - 15% 14% 13%

Might/might not 111 16 8 - - 12 7 68 - - - 111 - 41 61 8

3% 2% 1% - - 3% 1% 9% - - - 100% - 3% 5% 1%

Would not Vote 186 - 8 - 2 - 13 164 - - - - 186 65 80 41

6% - 1% - 6% - 2% 22% - - - - 100% 5% 6% 6%

Consitituency Seats

5 Seats 1,243 247 220 17 16 191 250 301 1,119 930 189 41 65 1,243 - -

39% 37% 36% 15% 49% 40% 43% 40% 39% 38% 41% 37% 35% 100% - -

4 Seats 1,331 244 299 81 6 185 190 326 1,159 976 183 61 80 - 1,331 -

41% 37% 49% 70% 19% 39% 33% 44% 40% 40% 40% 55% 43% - 100% -

3 Seats 653 174 96 18 10 96 142 117 599 514 85 8 41 - - 653

20% 26% 16% 15% 32% 20% 24% 16% 21% 21% 18% 8% 22% - - 100%

Marital Status

Single 985 115 150 56 17 183 161 302 823 649 174 48 87 349 490 146

31% 17% 24% 49% 53% 39% 28% 41% 29% 27% 38% 43% 47% 28% 37% 22%

Married 1,632 356 394 44 10 210 312 306 1,520 1,307 213 46 55 623 645 364

51% 54% 64% 39% 31% 44% 54% 41% 53% 54% 47% 42% 30% 50% 48% 56%

Cohabiting 201 49 17 11 5 20 37 63 184 169 15 7 6 60 89 52

6% 7% 3% 9% 16% 4% 6% 8% 6% 7% 3% 6% 3% 5% 7% 8%

Widowed 227 113 38 3 - 12 19 40 199 166 33 6 14 106 63 58

7% 17% 6% 3% - 3% 3% 5% 7% 7% 7% 6% 8% 9% 5% 9%

Seperated / Divorced 177 32 16 1 - 46 48 34 146 125 22 4 24 101 43 33

5% 5% 3% 1% - 10% 8% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 13% 8% 3% 5%

Civil Partnership 5 - - - - - 5 - 5 5 - - - 5 - -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - - 0% - -



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653

Unweighted 911 199 170 36 10 141 159 196 820 678 142 36 39 331 399 181


1 483 142 71 11 - 100 66 92 425 376 49 21 24 219 174 90

15% 21% 12% 10% - 21% 11% 12% 15% 16% 11% 19% 13% 18% 13% 14%

2 1,617 323 358 63 24 204 315 331 1,468 1,256 212 52 71 627 675 315

50% 49% 58% 54% 73% 43% 54% 44% 51% 52% 46% 47% 38% 50% 51% 48%

3 551 104 106 16 - 67 96 162 471 388 83 6 72 198 233 120

17% 16% 17% 14% - 14% 17% 22% 16% 16% 18% 6% 39% 16% 18% 18%

4 338 58 27 24 5 51 56 116 295 222 73 18 17 157 103 78

10% 9% 4% 21% 15% 11% 10% 16% 10% 9% 16% 17% 9% 13% 8% 12%

5 171 33 31 - 4 43 25 36 151 120 31 13 2 17 120 34

5% 5% 5% - 12% 9% 4% 5% 5% 5% 7% 12% 1% 1% 9% 5%

6 60 5 17 2 - 5 24 7 60 52 8 - - 24 23 14

2% 1% 3% 2% - 1% 4% 1% 2% 2% 2% - - 2% 2% 2%

7+ 6 - 4 - - 2 - - 6 6 - - - - 4 2

0% - 1% - - 0% - - 0% 0% - - - - 0% 0%

Don't Know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Mean 2.47 2.29 2.44 2.52 2.67 2.48 2.54 2.59 2.47 2.44 2.67 2.56 2.46 2.35 2.55 2.54


0 2,028 452 369 61 27 313 360 446 1,775 1,512 263 97 131 786 857 385

63% 68% 60% 53% 84% 66% 62% 60% 62% 62% 57% 87% 70% 63% 64% 59%

1 473 95 76 16 5 43 82 156 426 349 77 2 26 181 149 143

15% 14% 12% 14% 16% 9% 14% 21% 15% 14% 17% 2% 14% 15% 11% 22%

2 486 80 123 37 - 62 89 96 458 377 81 9 18 163 249 73

15% 12% 20% 32% - 13% 15% 13% 16% 16% 18% 8% 10% 13% 19% 11%

3 170 27 43 1 - 37 32 30 163 129 34 3 - 98 51 21

5% 4% 7% 1% - 8% 5% 4% 6% 5% 7% 2% - 8% 4% 3%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653

Unweighted 911 199 170 36 10 141 159 196 820 678 142 36 39 331 399 181

4 40 5 2 - - 5 14 14 29 26 3 - 11 10 13 17

1% 1% 0% - - 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% - 6% 1% 1% 3%

5 9 - - - - - 6 3 6 6 - - - 2 7 -

0% - - - - - 1% 0% 0% 0% - - - 0% 0% -

6 0 - - - - 0 - - 0 0 - - - - 0 -

0% - - - - 0% - - 0% 0% - - - - 0% -

7+ 20 5 2 - - 12 - - 20 20 - - - 2 5 12

1% 1% 0% - - 3% - - 1% 1% - - - 0% 0% 2%

Don't Know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Mean 0.71 0.59 0.78 0.81 0.16 0.82 0.76 0.68 0.74 0.73 0.77 0.26 0.57 0.70 0.69 0.78


Working - Full Time 1,251 226 296 38 10 190 228 262 1,166 975 190 42 36 403 566 282

39% 34% 48% 33% 31% 40% 39% 35% 41% 40% 42% 38% 19% 32% 43% 43%

Working - Part Time 346 39 60 6 - 54 73 113 286 228 58 17 26 158 140 48

11% 6% 10% 5% - 11% 13% 15% 10% 9% 13% 16% 14% 13% 11% 7%

Self-Employed 114 17 20 - - 25 16 36 84 77 6 1 29 31 70 13

4% 3% 3% - - 5% 3% 5% 3% 3% 1% 1% 16% 3% 5% 2%

Unemployed 280 17 23 26 - 74 71 69 225 201 24 3 45 106 119 55

9% 3% 4% 22% - 16% 12% 9% 8% 8% 5% 2% 24% 9% 9% 8%

Home Duties 482 126 64 15 9 56 89 123 439 371 68 16 22 212 148 122

15% 19% 10% 13% 29% 12% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 12% 17% 11% 19%

Retired 556 197 126 11 7 63 73 78 507 454 54 19 21 271 181 103

17% 30% 21% 10% 21% 13% 13% 10% 18% 19% 12% 18% 11% 22% 14% 16%

Student, not employed 125 16 16 19 6 - 26 42 100 59 41 12 8 43 73 9

4% 2% 3% 17% 19% - 4% 6% 3% 2% 9% 11% 4% 3% 5% 1%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,227 665 615 115 33 472 582 745 2,877 2,420 457 111 186 1,243 1,331 653

Unweighted 911 199 170 36 10 141 159 196 820 678 142 36 39 331 399 181

Student, working part-time 73 25 10 - - 10 7 22 70 55 15 - - 19 34 20

2% 4% 2% - - 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% - - 2% 3% 3%


One 1,062 216 180 26 3 225 186 225 944 785 159 40 56 404 395 264

33% 32% 29% 23% 9% 48% 32% 30% 33% 32% 35% 36% 30% 32% 30% 40%

Two 1,273 232 281 43 12 125 286 294 1,166 998 167 33 69 512 538 224

39% 35% 46% 37% 36% 26% 49% 39% 41% 41% 37% 29% 37% 41% 40% 34%

Three 262 58 37 7 6 38 29 87 222 154 68 18 15 97 97 68

8% 9% 6% 6% 18% 8% 5% 12% 8% 6% 15% 17% 8% 8% 7% 10%

Four 36 - 19 - - 2 10 4 36 34 3 - - 16 16 4

1% - 3% - - 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% - - 1% 1% 1%

None working at moment 593 159 97 39 12 82 70 134 509 449 60 20 47 214 286 94

18% 24% 16% 34% 36% 17% 12% 18% 18% 19% 13% 18% 25% 17% 21% 14%


Yes - Broadband 2,589 456 505 94 23 396 490 625 2,318 1,953 365 81 153 951 1,109 530

80% 69% 82% 82% 71% 84% 84% 84% 81% 81% 80% 73% 82% 76% 83% 81%

Yes - Other Connection 97 17 11 8 - 17 15 29 96 74 22 1 - 25 60 13

3% 3% 2% 7% - 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 5% 1% - 2% 4% 2%

No 540 192 99 13 9 59 77 91 463 393 70 28 33 267 163 110

17% 29% 16% 12% 29% 12% 13% 12% 16% 16% 15% 26% 18% 22% 12% 17%

CWE

Yes 1,964 463 384 80 29 333 315 360 1,776 1,538 237 56 97 764 788 412

61% 70% 62% 70% 88% 71% 54% 48% 62% 64% 52% 51% 52% 61% 59% 63%

No 1,263 202 231 35 4 139 267 385 1,101 881 220 55 90 479 543 241

39% 30% 38% 30% 12% 29% 46% 52% 38% 36% 48% 49% 48% 39% 41% 37%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,166 1,275 998 1,410 1,815 215 986 894 936 624 2,104 1,336

Unweighted 957 444 513 245 396 316 454 457 46 282 248 255 172 634 323

Gender

Male 1,685 1,685 - 573 637 475 665 878 142 457 422 464 343 987 698

49% 100% - 49% 50% 48% 47% 48% 66% 46% 47% 50% 55% 47% 52%

Female 1,755 - 1,755 593 638 523 745 937 73 529 472 472 281 1,117 638

51% - 100% 51% 50% 52% 53% 52% 34% 54% 53% 50% 45% 53% 48%

Age

-34 1,166 573 593 1,166 - - 533 527 106 294 274 393 205 715 451

34% 34% 34% 100% - - 38% 29% 49% 30% 31% 42% 33% 34% 34%

35-54 1,275 637 638 - 1,275 - 609 627 39 390 309 355 221 751 524

37% 38% 36% - 100% - 43% 35% 18% 40% 35% 38% 35% 36% 39%

55+ 998 475 523 - - 998 268 660 70 302 310 188 198 638 361

29% 28% 30% - - 100% 19% 36% 33% 31% 35% 20% 32% 30% 27%

Social Class

ABC1 1,410 665 745 533 609 268 1,410 - - 515 302 427 167 995 415

41% 39% 42% 46% 48% 27% 100% - - 52% 34% 46% 27% 47% 31%

C2DE 1,815 878 937 527 627 660 - 1,815 - 471 526 431 387 1,093 721

53% 52% 53% 45% 49% 66% - 100% - 48% 59% 46% 62% 52% 54%

F 215 142 73 106 39 70 - - 215 - 65 79 71 15 200

6% 8% 4% 9% 3% 7% - - 100% - 7% 8% 11% 1% 15%

Region

Dublin 986 457 529 294 390 302 515 471 - 986 - - - 986 -

29% 27% 30% 25% 31% 30% 37% 26% - 100% - - - 47% -

Lein-ster 894 422 472 274 309 310 302 526 65 - 894 - - 408 485

26% 25% 27% 23% 24% 31% 21% 29% 30% - 100% - - 19% 36%

Mun-ster 936 464 472 393 355 188 427 431 79 - - 936 - 513 424

27% 28% 27% 34% 28% 19% 30% 24% 37% - - 100% - 24% 32%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,166 1,275 998 1,410 1,815 215 986 894 936 624 2,104 1,336

Unweighted 957 444 513 245 396 316 454 457 46 282 248 255 172 634 323

Conn/Ulster 624 343 281 205 221 198 167 387 71 - - - 624 197 427

18% 20% 16% 18% 17% 20% 12% 21% 33% - - - 100% 9% 32%

Area

Urban 2,104 987 1,117 715 751 638 995 1,093 15 986 408 513 197 2,104 -

61% 59% 64% 61% 59% 64% 71% 60% 7% 100% 46% 55% 32% 100% -

Rural 1,336 698 638 451 524 361 415 721 200 - 485 424 427 - 1,336

39% 41% 36% 39% 41% 36% 29% 40% 93% - 54% 45% 68% - 100%

Party Support

Fianna Fail 678 363 315 147 207 324 193 427 58 128 270 149 132 376 302

20% 22% 18% 13% 16% 32% 14% 24% 27% 13% 30% 16% 21% 18% 23%

Fine Gael 619 321 299 160 240 219 303 262 55 173 120 170 156 393 226

18% 19% 17% 14% 19% 22% 21% 14% 25% 18% 13% 18% 25% 19% 17%

Labour Party 128 51 77 66 48 14 57 70 - 58 17 51 1 106 22

4% 3% 4% 6% 4% 1% 4% 4% - 6% 2% 5% 0% 5% 2%

Green Party 33 15 18 10 16 7 12 20 - 13 9 5 4 18 15

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Sinn Fein 474 306 168 184 165 125 145 294 35 138 143 105 88 261 212

14% 18% 10% 16% 13% 13% 10% 16% 16% 14% 16% 11% 14% 12% 16%


17% 16% 19% 19% 19% 13% 19% 17% 6% 20% 15% 20% 13% 18% 16%

Don't Know / Would not 913 363 550 374 357 183 430 430 53 278 203 272 160 566 347

27% 22% 31% 32% 28% 18% 30% 24% 25% 28% 23% 29% 26% 27% 26%

Likelihood

Would vote 2,900 1,425 1,475 947 1,065 888 1,217 1,502 180 837 748 750 565 1,788 1,111

84% 85% 84% 81% 84% 89% 86% 83% 84% 85% 84% 80% 90% 85% 83%

Would Def vote 2,437 1,225 1,212 746 880 811 1,014 1,271 152 699 673 629 436 1,498 939

71% 73% 69% 64% 69% 81% 72% 70% 71% 71% 75% 67% 70% 71% 70%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,166 1,275 998 1,410 1,815 215 986 894 936 624 2,104 1,336

Unweighted 957 444 513 245 396 316 454 457 46 282 248 255 172 634 323

Would Prob vote 462 200 263 201 186 76 203 231 28 138 75 121 129 291 172

13% 12% 15% 17% 15% 8% 14% 13% 13% 14% 8% 13% 21% 14% 13%

Might/might not 124 41 83 52 32 40 58 67 - 32 45 20 27 106 18

4% 2% 5% 4% 2% 4% 4% 4% - 3% 5% 2% 4% 5% 1%

Would not Vote 330 165 165 147 124 59 99 204 26 94 74 140 21 171 159

10% 10% 9% 13% 10% 6% 7% 11% 12% 10% 8% 15% 3% 8% 12%

Consitituency Seats

5 Seats 1,292 619 673 365 488 439 441 770 81 370 466 211 245 754 538

38% 37% 38% 31% 38% 44% 31% 42% 38% 37% 52% 23% 39% 36% 40%

4 Seats 1,439 714 725 531 523 385 695 664 80 448 103 609 278 1,042 397

42% 42% 41% 46% 41% 39% 49% 37% 37% 45% 12% 65% 45% 50% 30%

3 Seats 709 353 357 270 264 175 274 381 54 168 324 116 101 308 402

21% 21% 20% 23% 21% 18% 19% 21% 25% 17% 36% 12% 16% 15% 30%

Marital Status

Single 1,068 566 502 756 216 96 410 564 94 275 264 328 201 646 422

31% 34% 29% 65% 17% 10% 29% 31% 44% 28% 30% 35% 32% 31% 32%

Married 1,729 854 875 256 860 613 799 849 80 576 415 426 311 1,082 647

50% 51% 50% 22% 67% 61% 57% 47% 37% 58% 46% 46% 50% 51% 48%

Cohabiting 229 120 108 127 90 12 92 131 6 39 71 89 30 136 93

7% 7% 6% 11% 7% 1% 6% 7% 3% 4% 8% 10% 5% 6% 7%

Widowed 231 67 164 - 9 221 51 158 22 52 103 34 42 156 75

7% 4% 9% - 1% 22% 4% 9% 10% 5% 11% 4% 7% 7% 6%

Seperated / Divorced 179 78 101 27 96 56 54 112 13 39 41 59 40 80 99

5% 5% 6% 2% 8% 6% 4% 6% 6% 4% 5% 6% 6% 4% 7%

Civil Partnership 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 - - 5 - - - 5 -

0% - 0% - 0% - 0% - - 0% - - - 0% -



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,166 1,275 998 1,410 1,815 215 986 894 936 624 2,104 1,336

Unweighted 957 444 513 245 396 316 454 457 46 282 248 255 172 634 323


1 507 230 277 100 140 267 162 324 22 91 175 118 123 251 256

15% 14% 16% 9% 11% 27% 11% 18% 10% 9% 20% 13% 20% 12% 19%

2 1,722 850 872 461 703 558 745 914 62 572 361 478 312 1,058 664

50% 50% 50% 40% 55% 56% 53% 50% 29% 58% 40% 51% 50% 50% 50%

3 598 324 274 240 253 105 212 320 66 135 183 156 124 361 237

17% 19% 16% 21% 20% 10% 15% 18% 31% 14% 20% 17% 20% 17% 18%

4 369 183 186 205 112 51 188 153 28 100 120 125 24 252 117

11% 11% 11% 18% 9% 5% 13% 8% 13% 10% 13% 13% 4% 12% 9%

5 176 77 99 108 60 8 67 87 22 58 42 41 35 121 54

5% 5% 6% 9% 5% 1% 5% 5% 10% 6% 5% 4% 6% 6% 4%

6 62 18 45 52 5 5 33 15 14 26 12 19 5 57 5

2% 1% 3% 4% 0% 1% 2% 1% 7% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 0%

7+ 6 4 2 - 2 4 4 2 - 4 2 - - 4 2

0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% - - 0% 0%

Don't Know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Mean 2.48 2.46 2.49 2.93 2.43 2.01 2.55 2.35 3.04 2.55 2.48 2.52 2.28 2.58 2.31


0 2,116 1,106 1,010 683 490 943 717 1,231 167 582 588 533 414 1,312 804

62% 66% 58% 59% 38% 94% 51% 68% 78% 59% 66% 57% 66% 62% 60%

1 526 214 312 226 276 24 307 181 39 146 142 186 52 313 214

15% 13% 18% 19% 22% 2% 22% 10% 18% 15% 16% 20% 8% 15% 16%

2 542 260 282 195 335 13 284 252 6 194 97 148 103 360 183

16% 15% 16% 17% 26% 1% 20% 14% 3% 20% 11% 16% 16% 17% 14%

3 181 83 99 48 118 15 68 111 3 56 38 43 44 90 91

5% 5% 6% 4% 9% 1% 5% 6% 1% 6% 4% 5% 7% 4% 7%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,166 1,275 998 1,410 1,815 215 986 894 936 624 2,104 1,336

Unweighted 957 444 513 245 396 316 454 457 46 282 248 255 172 634 323

4 42 3 39 9 34 - 25 17 - 2 14 24 2 24 18

1% 0% 2% 1% 3% - 2% 1% - 0% 2% 3% 0% 1% 1%

5 11 6 6 - 11 - 6 6 - 2 2 3 3 2 9

0% 0% 0% - 1% - 0% 0% - 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1%

6 0 - 0 - 0 - - 0 - 0 - - - 0 -

0% - 0% - 0% - - 0% - 0% - - - 0% -

7+ 20 14 6 5 11 4 4 16 - 2 12 - 5 2 18

1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% - 0% 1% - 1% 0% 1%

Don't Know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Mean 0.73 0.67 0.80 0.71 1.23 0.12 0.88 0.68 0.27 0.76 0.68 0.77 0.72 0.68 0.82


Working - Full Time 1,365 819 545 557 689 119 827 526 12 386 316 434 229 833 531

40% 49% 31% 48% 54% 12% 59% 29% 6% 39% 35% 46% 37% 40% 40%

Working - Part Time 354 114 240 163 126 65 149 160 45 84 114 105 52 206 148

10% 7% 14% 14% 10% 7% 11% 9% 21% 8% 13% 11% 8% 10% 11%

Self-Employed 114 94 20 36 52 27 38 32 44 12 30 35 38 47 67

3% 6% 1% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 20% 1% 3% 4% 6% 2% 5%

Unemployed 313 201 111 118 139 56 39 274 - 110 52 107 43 176 137

9% 12% 6% 10% 11% 6% 3% 15% - 11% 6% 11% 7% 8% 10%

Home Duties 514 17 497 101 249 165 138 349 27 172 153 112 78 329 186

15% 1% 28% 9% 19% 16% 10% 19% 13% 17% 17% 12% 13% 16% 14%

Retired 563 316 247 - 4 560 149 376 38 163 192 88 121 366 198

16% 19% 14% - 0% 56% 11% 21% 18% 17% 21% 9% 19% 17% 15%

Student, not employed 133 62 71 109 16 8 55 66 12 25 37 45 25 111 22

4% 4% 4% 9% 1% 1% 4% 4% 6% 3% 4% 5% 4% 5% 2%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,166 1,275 998 1,410 1,815 215 986 894 936 624 2,104 1,336

Unweighted 957 444 513 245 396 316 454 457 46 282 248 255 172 634 323

Student, working part-time 83 61 23 82 1 - 17 30 36 33 - 11 38 37 47

2% 4% 1% 7% 0% - 1% 2% 17% 3% - 1% 6% 2% 3%


One 1,161 563 598 357 509 295 459 646 56 331 348 289 192 641 520

34% 33% 34% 31% 40% 30% 33% 36% 26% 34% 39% 31% 31% 30% 39%

Two 1,348 690 658 475 628 244 702 568 78 285 357 452 253 793 555

39% 41% 37% 41% 49% 24% 50% 31% 36% 29% 40% 48% 40% 38% 42%

Three 274 158 116 226 21 26 122 101 51 76 65 50 83 172 101

8% 9% 7% 19% 2% 3% 9% 6% 24% 8% 7% 5% 13% 8% 8%

Four 36 18 18 34 2 - 14 6 16 9 17 6 4 22 14

1% 1% 1% 3% 0% - 1% 0% 8% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%

None working at moment 621 256 365 73 115 432 114 493 14 284 106 139 92 475 146

18% 15% 21% 6% 9% 43% 8% 27% 6% 29% 12% 15% 15% 23% 11%


Yes - Broadband 2,795 1,357 1,438 1,047 1,159 589 1,294 1,328 173 864 705 793 433 1,760 1,036

81% 81% 82% 90% 91% 59% 92% 73% 81% 88% 79% 85% 69% 84% 78%

Yes - Other Connection 103 60 42 38 39 26 21 76 5 9 9 25 59 39 64

3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2% 1% 1% 3% 9% 2% 5%

No 542 268 274 81 77 383 95 410 37 113 179 118 132 305 237

16% 16% 16% 7% 6% 38% 7% 23% 17% 11% 20% 13% 21% 15% 18%

CWE

Yes 2,105 1,256 848 514 857 734 855 1,178 72 612 554 551 388 1,277 828

61% 75% 48% 44% 67% 74% 61% 65% 33% 62% 62% 59% 62% 61% 62%

No 1,335 429 906 653 418 264 555 637 143 374 340 385 236 827 508

39% 25% 52% 56% 33% 26% 39% 35% 67% 38% 38% 41% 38% 39% 38%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,440 678 619 128 33 474 595 913 2,900 2,437 462 124 330 1,292 1,439 709

Unweighted 957 202 171 38 10 142 165 229 827 683 144 41 66 341 424 192

Gender

Male 1,685 363 321 51 15 306 266 363 1,425 1,225 200 41 165 619 714 353

49% 54% 52% 40% 45% 65% 45% 40% 49% 50% 43% 33% 50% 48% 50% 50%

Female 1,755 315 299 77 18 168 328 550 1,475 1,212 263 83 165 673 725 357

51% 46% 48% 60% 55% 35% 55% 60% 51% 50% 57% 67% 50% 52% 50% 50%

Age

-34 1,166 147 160 66 10 184 226 374 947 746 201 52 147 365 531 270

34% 22% 26% 52% 31% 39% 38% 41% 33% 31% 43% 42% 45% 28% 37% 38%

35-54 1,275 207 240 48 16 165 243 357 1,065 880 186 32 124 488 523 264

37% 31% 39% 38% 48% 35% 41% 39% 37% 36% 40% 25% 38% 38% 36% 37%

55+ 998 324 219 14 7 125 126 183 888 811 76 40 59 439 385 175

29% 48% 35% 11% 21% 26% 21% 20% 31% 33% 16% 32% 18% 34% 27% 25%

Social Class

ABC1 1,410 193 303 57 12 145 270 430 1,217 1,014 203 58 99 441 695 274

41% 28% 49% 45% 38% 31% 45% 47% 42% 42% 44% 46% 30% 34% 48% 39%

C2DE 1,815 427 262 70 20 294 311 430 1,502 1,271 231 67 204 770 664 381

53% 63% 42% 55% 62% 62% 52% 47% 52% 52% 50% 54% 62% 60% 46% 54%

F 215 58 55 - - 35 14 53 180 152 28 - 26 81 80 54

6% 9% 9% - - 7% 2% 6% 6% 6% 6% - 8% 6% 6% 8%

Region

Dublin 986 128 173 58 13 138 198 278 837 699 138 32 94 370 448 168

29% 19% 28% 45% 41% 29% 33% 30% 29% 29% 30% 26% 28% 29% 31% 24%

Lein-ster 894 270 120 17 9 143 132 203 748 673 75 45 74 466 103 324

26% 40% 19% 14% 29% 30% 22% 22% 26% 28% 16% 36% 23% 36% 7% 46%

Mun-ster 936 149 170 51 5 105 183 272 750 629 121 20 140 211 609 116

27% 22% 28% 40% 16% 22% 31% 30% 26% 26% 26% 16% 43% 16% 42% 16%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,440 678 619 128 33 474 595 913 2,900 2,437 462 124 330 1,292 1,439 709

Unweighted 957 202 171 38 10 142 165 229 827 683 144 41 66 341 424 192

Conn/Ulster 624 132 156 1 4 88 82 160 565 436 129 27 21 245 278 101

18% 19% 25% 1% 14% 19% 14% 18% 19% 18% 28% 22% 6% 19% 19% 14%

Area

Urban 2,104 376 393 106 18 261 383 566 1,788 1,498 291 106 171 754 1,042 308

61% 55% 64% 83% 55% 55% 64% 62% 62% 61% 63% 85% 52% 58% 72% 43%

Rural 1,336 302 226 22 15 212 212 347 1,111 939 172 18 159 538 397 402

39% 45% 36% 17% 45% 45% 36% 38% 38% 39% 37% 15% 48% 42% 28% 57%

Party Support

Fianna Fail 678 678 - - - - - - 661 587 74 16 2 247 258 174

20% 100% - - - - - - 23% 24% 16% 13% 1% 19% 18% 24%

Fine Gael 619 - 619 - - - - - 595 515 81 12 8 220 303 96

18% - 100% - - - - - 21% 21% 17% 10% 2% 17% 21% 14%

Labour Party 128 - - 128 - - - - 119 103 16 - 9 17 93 18

4% - - 100% - - - - 4% 4% 3% - 3% 1% 6% 3%

Green Party 33 - - - 33 - - - 30 26 4 - 2 16 6 10

1% - - - 100% - - - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 0% 1%

Sinn Fein 474 - - - - 474 - - 462 408 53 12 - 191 187 96

14% - - - - 100% - - 16% 17% 12% 10% - 15% 13% 14%


17% - - - - - 100% - 19% 18% 25% 5% 7% 19% 14% 21%

Don't Know / Would not 913 - - - - - - 913 469 351 118 77 284 350 395 168

27% - - - - - - 100% 16% 14% 25% 62% 86% 27% 27% 24%

Likelihood

Would vote 2,900 661 595 119 30 462 564 469 2,900 2,437 462 - - 1,122 1,176 602

84% 97% 96% 93% 94% 97% 95% 51% 100% 100% 100% - - 87% 82% 85%

Would Def vote 2,437 587 515 103 26 408 447 351 2,437 2,437 - - - 933 987 517

71% 86% 83% 81% 81% 86% 75% 38% 84% 100% - - - 72% 69% 73%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,440 678 619 128 33 474 595 913 2,900 2,437 462 124 330 1,292 1,439 709

Unweighted 957 202 171 38 10 142 165 229 827 683 144 41 66 341 424 192

Would Prob vote 462 74 81 16 4 53 117 118 462 - 462 - - 189 189 85

13% 11% 13% 12% 12% 11% 20% 13% 16% - 100% - - 15% 13% 12%

Might/might not 124 16 12 - - 12 7 77 - - - 124 - 42 74 8

4% 2% 2% - - 3% 1% 8% - - - 100% - 3% 5% 1%

Would not Vote 330 2 8 9 2 - 24 284 - - - - 330 99 153 77

10% 0% 1% 7% 6% - 4% 31% - - - - 100% 8% 11% 11%

Consitituency Seats

5 Seats 1,292 247 220 17 16 191 251 350 1,122 933 189 42 99 1,292 - -

38% 36% 36% 13% 49% 40% 42% 38% 39% 38% 41% 33% 30% 100% - -

4 Seats 1,439 258 303 93 6 187 197 395 1,176 987 189 74 153 - 1,439 -

42% 38% 49% 73% 19% 39% 33% 43% 41% 41% 41% 60% 46% - 100% -

3 Seats 709 174 96 18 10 96 147 168 602 517 85 8 77 - - 709

21% 26% 15% 14% 32% 20% 25% 18% 21% 21% 18% 7% 23% - - 100%

Marital Status

Single 1,068 125 150 68 17 186 161 360 841 662 179 50 138 366 534 168

31% 18% 24% 54% 53% 39% 27% 39% 29% 27% 39% 40% 42% 28% 37% 24%

Married 1,729 358 394 44 10 210 318 394 1,523 1,310 213 54 121 655 683 391

50% 53% 64% 35% 31% 44% 54% 43% 53% 54% 46% 43% 37% 51% 47% 55%

Cohabiting 229 50 17 11 5 20 43 83 185 170 15 7 32 60 109 59

7% 7% 3% 8% 16% 4% 7% 9% 6% 7% 3% 6% 10% 5% 8% 8%

Widowed 231 113 42 3 - 12 19 40 199 166 33 10 14 106 67 58

7% 17% 7% 3% - 3% 3% 4% 7% 7% 7% 8% 4% 8% 5% 8%

Seperated / Divorced 179 32 16 1 - 46 48 36 146 125 22 4 24 101 45 33

5% 5% 3% 1% - 10% 8% 4% 5% 5% 5% 3% 7% 8% 3% 5%

Civil Partnership 5 - - - - - 5 - 5 5 - - - 5 - -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - - 0% - -



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,440 678 619 128 33 474 595 913 2,900 2,437 462 124 330 1,292 1,439 709

Unweighted 957 202 171 38 10 142 165 229 827 683 144 41 66 341 424 192


1 507 142 71 14 - 100 66 113 428 376 52 21 43 219 197 91

15% 21% 12% 11% - 21% 11% 12% 15% 15% 11% 17% 13% 17% 14% 13%

2 1,722 324 358 63 24 204 327 422 1,475 1,263 212 62 155 662 733 327

50% 48% 58% 49% 73% 43% 55% 46% 51% 52% 46% 50% 47% 51% 51% 46%

3 598 106 110 25 - 67 96 194 471 388 83 10 106 207 248 143

17% 16% 18% 19% - 14% 16% 21% 16% 16% 18% 8% 32% 16% 17% 20%

4 369 68 27 24 5 51 56 137 305 232 73 18 19 162 113 94

11% 10% 4% 19% 15% 11% 9% 15% 11% 10% 16% 15% 6% 13% 8% 13%

5 176 33 31 - 4 43 25 40 151 120 31 13 6 17 120 39

5% 5% 5% - 12% 9% 4% 4% 5% 5% 7% 11% 2% 1% 8% 5%

6 62 5 17 2 - 7 24 7 62 52 11 - - 24 25 14

2% 1% 3% 1% - 1% 4% 1% 2% 2% 2% - - 2% 2% 2%

7+ 6 - 4 - - 2 - - 6 6 - - - - 4 2

0% - 1% - - 0% - - 0% 0% - - - - 0% 0%

Don't Know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Mean 2.48 2.32 2.45 2.51 2.67 2.50 2.53 2.55 2.48 2.44 2.68 2.53 2.36 2.36 2.53 2.59


0 2,116 464 373 70 27 315 362 505 1,791 1,527 265 103 180 830 893 393

62% 68% 60% 55% 84% 66% 61% 55% 62% 63% 57% 83% 55% 64% 62% 55%

1 526 95 76 16 5 43 82 209 428 351 77 2 62 183 179 164

15% 14% 12% 13% 16% 9% 14% 23% 15% 14% 17% 2% 19% 14% 12% 23%

2 542 80 123 37 - 62 93 148 459 378 81 17 65 165 281 97

16% 12% 20% 29% - 13% 16% 16% 16% 16% 17% 14% 20% 13% 20% 14%

3 181 27 43 5 - 37 37 32 167 129 38 3 6 98 58 25

5% 4% 7% 4% - 8% 6% 4% 6% 5% 8% 2% 2% 8% 4% 4%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,440 678 619 128 33 474 595 913 2,900 2,437 462 124 330 1,292 1,439 709

Unweighted 957 202 171 38 10 142 165 229 827 683 144 41 66 341 424 192

4 42 7 2 - - 5 14 14 29 26 3 - 13 10 15 17

1% 1% 0% - - 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% - 4% 1% 1% 2%

5 11 - - - - - 6 6 6 6 - - 2 5 7 -

0% - - - - - 1% 1% 0% 0% - - 1% 0% 0% -

6 0 - - - - 0 - - 0 0 - - - - 0 -

0% - - - - 0% - - 0% 0% - - - - 0% -

7+ 20 5 2 - - 12 - - 20 20 - - - 2 5 12

1% 1% 0% - - 3% - - 1% 1% - - - 0% 0% 2%

Don't Know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Mean 0.73 0.59 0.77 0.82 0.16 0.81 0.78 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.78 0.35 0.84 0.69 0.73 0.83


Working - Full Time 1,365 226 296 38 10 190 231 373 1,170 980 190 51 115 441 599 325

40% 33% 48% 30% 31% 40% 39% 41% 40% 40% 41% 41% 35% 34% 42% 46%

Working - Part Time 354 39 60 6 - 54 73 121 286 228 58 17 35 158 146 51

10% 6% 10% 5% - 11% 12% 13% 10% 9% 13% 14% 11% 12% 10% 7%

Self-Employed 114 17 20 - - 25 16 36 84 77 6 1 29 31 70 13

3% 3% 3% - - 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 9% 2% 5% 2%

Unemployed 313 17 23 35 - 76 75 87 227 201 26 3 66 115 143 55

9% 3% 4% 27% - 16% 13% 10% 8% 8% 6% 2% 20% 9% 10% 8%

Home Duties 514 126 64 18 9 56 94 146 444 373 72 16 45 214 172 128

15% 19% 10% 14% 29% 12% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 13% 14% 17% 12% 18%

Retired 563 199 130 11 7 63 73 80 509 455 54 24 23 271 189 103

16% 29% 21% 9% 21% 13% 12% 9% 18% 19% 12% 19% 7% 21% 13% 15%

Student, not employed 133 18 16 19 6 - 26 48 100 59 41 12 16 43 77 14

4% 3% 3% 15% 19% - 4% 5% 3% 2% 9% 10% 5% 3% 5% 2%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,440 678 619 128 33 474 595 913 2,900 2,437 462 124 330 1,292 1,439 709

Unweighted 957 202 171 38 10 142 165 229 827 683 144 41 66 341 424 192

Student, working part-time 83 35 10 - - 10 7 22 80 65 15 - - 19 44 20

2% 5% 2% - - 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% - - 1% 3% 3%


One 1,161 216 180 35 3 225 196 306 946 786 159 42 141 434 437 290

34% 32% 29% 28% 9% 47% 33% 34% 33% 32% 34% 34% 43% 34% 30% 41%

Two 1,348 243 285 43 12 125 289 351 1,180 1,013 167 44 100 526 573 249

39% 36% 46% 34% 36% 26% 49% 38% 41% 42% 36% 35% 30% 41% 40% 35%

Three 274 58 37 7 6 40 29 97 224 154 70 18 22 103 99 72

8% 9% 6% 5% 18% 9% 5% 11% 8% 6% 15% 15% 7% 8% 7% 10%

Four 36 - 19 - - 2 10 4 36 34 3 - - 16 16 4

1% - 3% - - 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% - - 1% 1% 1%

None working at moment 621 162 97 42 12 82 70 155 514 451 63 20 68 214 314 94

18% 24% 16% 33% 36% 17% 12% 17% 18% 18% 14% 16% 21% 17% 22% 13%


Yes - Broadband 2,795 470 508 103 23 398 503 790 2,337 1,971 367 95 295 1,000 1,211 584

81% 69% 82% 81% 71% 84% 85% 86% 81% 81% 79% 76% 89% 77% 84% 82%

Yes - Other Connection 103 17 11 11 - 17 15 31 99 74 26 1 - 25 65 13

3% 3% 2% 9% - 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 6% 1% - 2% 5% 2%

No 542 192 99 13 9 59 77 93 463 393 70 28 35 267 163 112

16% 28% 16% 10% 29% 12% 13% 10% 16% 16% 15% 23% 11% 21% 11% 16%

CWE

Yes 2,105 466 384 84 29 333 321 488 1,785 1,544 241 61 192 808 843 453

61% 69% 62% 66% 88% 70% 54% 53% 62% 63% 52% 49% 58% 63% 59% 64%

No 1,335 212 235 44 4 141 274 425 1,115 893 222 64 137 484 596 256

39% 31% 38% 34% 12% 30% 46% 47% 38% 37% 48% 51% 42% 37% 41% 36%

Questionnaire

BEHAVIOUR & ATTITUDES SEPTEMBER POLL QUESTIONNAIRE

Good morning/afternoon/evening. My name is.............and I am carrying out a survey on behalf of Behaviour & Attitudes, an independent market research company.

The interview will be conducted in accordance with Market Research Society guidelines - all results will be shown in aggregate form only.

Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3 Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his

job as Taoiseach?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3 Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Howlin is doing his

job as leader of the Labour Party?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3 Q.4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his

job as leader of Fianna Fail?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3 Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his

job as leader of Sinn Fein?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3 Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?

J.7678

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3 Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? DO NOT READ OUT

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour Party 3

Sinn Fein 4

Independent 5

Green Party 6

Workers Party 7 Socialist Party 8

Anti-Austerity Alliance - People Before Profit Alliance (AAA-PBP) 9

RENUA Ireland 10

Social Democrats 11

Independent Alliance 12

Other specify _________________ 13

Don’t know 14

Would not vote 15

ASK Q.8 OF ALL CODED INDEPENDENT (CODE 5) AT Q.7 Q.8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your

first preference vote? SHOW CARD A


Green Party 2 Independent Alliance 3

RENUA Ireland 4

Social Democrats 5

Workers Party 6

Other Independent candidate 7

Don’t know 8


In favour of a cross border poll being held 1 Against a cross border poll being held 2 Don’t know/no opinion 3


In favour of a United Ireland 1 Against a United Ireland 2 Don’t know/no opinion 3

SHOW CARD Q.9c And would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ……..READ OUT

EACH OPTION IN TURN

READ OUT In favour of a united Ireland

Against a united Ireland

Don’t Know

You would have to pay less tax 1 2 3

There would be no change in the amount of tax you pay

1 2 3

You would have to pay more tax 1 2 3

Q.10 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow? PROBE TO APPROPRIATE CODE

Would definitely vote 1 Would probably vote 2 Might/might not vote 3 Would probably not vote 4 Would definitely not vote 5 Don’t know 6

Q.11 And to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote

in the last General Election? DO NOT READ OUT

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour Party 3

Sinn Fein 4

Independent 5

Green Party 6

Workers Party 7

Socialist Party 8


RENUA Ireland 10

Social Democrats 11

Independent Alliance 12

Other specify _________________ 13

Don’t know 14

Did not vote 15

Q.12 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Yes, eligible 1

No – not eligible 2

Don’t know 3

Q.13 And are you an Irish citizen, or not?

Yes 1

No 2

Don’t know 3

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