National Defense University – Institute for National Strategic Studies At a Crossroads of Security...

National Defense University – Institute for National Strategic Studies

At a Crossroads of Security Cooperation

“Strategic Opportunities” Panel 1:

Today’s Strategic Environment in the Americas

John A. (Jay) Cope, Colonel, USA (ret.)

Senior Research Fellow, INSS

10 March 2005The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the

National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government.


“The most important failure was one of imagination.”Report of the 9/11 Commission

Example: “Ultimately, the foundation of American strength is at home.” National Security Strategy (2002)

But has the globalized environment changed the concept of “home”?

Does the foundation of national strength reach beyond borders?

Should national defense begin beyond legal frontiers?

Are government institutions, decision-making processes and mindsets ready to address the reality of interdependence and its trade offs?

A Shared Challenge


The old paradigms no longer apply.


US Engagement at Today’s Critical Point

Diplomatic “Hub and Spoke” Zones of Special Concern


Conditions at Today’s Crossroads

Progressive trends: Shared democratic values but different political cultures Economic growth and regionalism

• Tied to world economy, foreign investment, Chinese demand• Remittances and free trade agreements• Sub-regional economic integration (political too?)• Transportation infrastructure modernization and expansion

No serious antagonism between countries but history and “zero-sum” mindset still hinder relations

Colombian model for reestablishing state sovereignty• National commitment; military reform; interagency planning;

work with neighbors


Conditions at Today’s Crossroads

Regressive trends: Declining faith in democracy in many countries

• Weak national institutions for domestic politics, development, personal security, and justice

• Politicized segments of societies• Shifts to the Left; rise of populism as way out of poverty• Demographics complicate

Inability of state to control all national territory Anti-Americanism; competition for influence in region Decreasing US government presence, available

resources, and influence


Environmental issues Public security “Coup of the streets” Lawless non-state actors:

• Violent armed groups (from youth gangs to insurgents)• Transnational crime (drugs, arms, other)• Poorly or ungoverned national territory

International and domestic terrorism Traditional pressures:

• Boundary disputes • Balancing power

Multidimensional Security Challenges


Protecting U.S. from Attack

Pre WWII: Two vast oceans; strong navy Friendly Canada, Mexico Region without military rival Monroe Doctrine

Pre 9/11 – add: Nuclear deterrent Aerospace defense with

Canada (NORAD) 1947 Rio Treaty Geo-strategic principle

• Ability to act globally without resource/prestige drain enhanced by a stable region, at peace (democratic), and prosperous

Post 9/11 – add: Proactive defense in depth in

all dimensions• Forward regions of world and

global commons of space and cyberspace

• Geographic approaches to US territory

• Within US Plus an expanded NORAD? Future missile defense

system? Geo-strategic principle?


Lingering Questions

Geo-strategic Principle Do Latin American states and Canada share US belief

that the ability to act globally is enhanced by a stable, peaceful, democratic and prosperous hemisphere?

Will they assume leadership roles in working toward this goal?

Defending the Southern Approach to the US This quadrant is at risk and close to home Is there a more effective way to defend this approach in

today’s threat and resource constrained environment?


Indicators of Strategic Change

Use of military in Latin engagement Four countries joined Iraq coalition: El Salvador remains Response to crisis in Bolivia and Haiti UN peacekeeping (integrated units); OAS demining

Chilean, Argentine and Canadian military and/or police programs of assistance in region

Regional integration (SICA, CARICOM, MERCOSUR) Defense and security cooperation (RSS and CFAC)

Amazon surveillance system (SIVAM) Linkage with neighbors (confidence building)

PANAMAX series of multinational exercises


Significance of Indicators

Recognition that political and economic health of the hemisphere cannot be dictated from Washington

Some states share interest in realizing regional stability, democratic values and prosperity Community response to regional crisis is possible

Strategic interests are shared with US (e.g., Panama Canal)

Niche military roles and interoperability are possible


Southern Approach to US

States in Caribbean Basin face all threats in the hemisphere in one place at one time Problems interconnect Thriving smuggling networks

• Example: 300 - 330 metric tons of cocaine enter US annually

Disconnect on perception of main threat Circumscribed cooperation

Mexico; “Third Border Initiative”

Decreasing US assets available No geo-strategic vision


Suspect Maritime and Air Activity1 January –31 December 2004

Maritime Air

Total109 Tracks

Pacific111 Tracks

Caribbean295 Tracks


Arms

Arms

Cocaine

Cocaine

Control over Transit

Control of Sea/CommerceJamaica Key

Defend HomelandMexico Key

Mahan, Early 20th Century Early 21st Century


Strategic “Covering Force Area”• Holistic, comprehensive regional approach• Premise: cooperation among LAC nations• Mexico: hub; mesh with Central America, RSS/ CARICOM, US (NORAD)• Focus: transnat’l crime; air and maritime surveillance and response (JIATF-South,

“Enduring Friendship”) • One Unified Command supports approach


Notional Future Regional Cooperation·Air/Sea Surveillance and Response · Disaster Assistance · Expeditionary Capability

SIVAM +

NORAD

Mexico-Caribbean BasinSurveillance System


And Finally,

Reminder: “The most important failure was one of imagination.”

[email protected]; 202-685-2373www.ndu.edu/inss/insshp.html

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