8/14/2019 National Day Rally Speech - Summary

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The Prime Ministers National Day Rally Speech has been likened by some to the USPresidents State of the Union address.

It has traditionally served as a summary of the trends and events of the year, and usedthem to project a direction for the countrys future. It serves as an indicator of:

1)How the political leadership views the challenges facing the country and itself

2)The relative priority which is placed on these challenges

3)Where the Out of Bounds (OB) markers currently lie

The Rally Speech is not usually a platform for PM to announce concrete policies orindulge in sharp-elbow politicking. The general tone is usually upbeat, optimistic, andeven grimmer issues are given a healthy layer of gloss.

The Rally speech will make broad generalizations about the direction the country is

expected to take, and more news about concrete policy follow-up will only startemerging in the press about a week or so after the speech.

This usually happens after a more frank analysis of the direction the country is headed induring the PMs annual jiap gor mei (15th day) dinner at the Istana. This dinner istraditionally held 15 days after National Day, and involves grassroots leaders andmembers of the press. The dinner is strictly closed doors to all reporting, and theprimary purpose of it is to clarify PMs direction for the country.

For the more conspiratorial, the Rally Speech will also fuel endless speculation aboutwhos in or out of favor in the PAP.

As previously mentioned, the Rally speech usually stays meticulously clear of politics.However, the chattering classes are doubtless on tenterhooks about any indication at allthat Foreign Minister George Yeo is quitting politics, after an unusually frank interview hegave with the Straits Times.

As PM is unlikely to allude directly to George Yeos Ministerial movements, TOCs instinctis to watch PMs speech on regional foreign policy carefully for hints of whether he thinksthe Foreign Ministry has done a good job, or can afford to buck up its performance.

The following TOC guide is not meant as an almanac. We cant tell you what the weather

tomorrows going to be like, much less the direction the government and civil service willbe taking in the next year.

While the PMs direction is an indication of what he hopes to do in the coming year,whether or not this is actualized by a bureaucracy and political leadership that isincreasingly less monolithic than that of Lee Kuan Yews time remains to be seen.

Also remember that if a week is a long time in politics, a year is an eternity. Singapore,

ever vulnerable to external events, is a price taker in the march of history. Neverunderestimate the power of global events to throw a spanner in the works (think high oil

prices, regional bilateral spats, SARS, bird flu, terrorism).

Thus with no oracular pretensions and sufficient caveats, TOC presents two guestcontributions on the direction PM is likely to take with his speech.