NASA CMS uncertainty working group

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NASA CMS UNCERTAINTY WORKING GROUP Active members: Participants: Chris Badurek, David Baker, Nicolas Bousserez, Jim Collatz, Sangram Ganguly, Robert Kennedy, Dimitris Menemenlis, John Miller, Steve Pawson, ` NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 1

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Active members: Participants: Chris Badurek , David Baker, Nicolas Bousserez , Jim Collatz , Sangram Ganguly , Robert Kennedy, Dimitris Menemenlis , John Miller, Steve Pawson , `. NASA CMS uncertainty working group. Ocean State. Land State. “Uncertainty”. Ocean/air flux. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of NASA CMS uncertainty working group

Page 1: NASA CMS uncertainty working group

NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 1

NASA CMS UNCERTAINTY WORKING GROUP

Active members: Participants: Chris Badurek, David Baker, Nicolas Bousserez, Jim Collatz, Sangram Ganguly, Robert Kennedy, Dimitris Menemenlis, John Miller, Steve Pawson,

`

Page 2: NASA CMS uncertainty working group

NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 2

“Uncertainty”

Land State

Land/air fluxOcean/air flux

Ocean State

Ocean/Land flux

Page 3: NASA CMS uncertainty working group

NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 3

Observation

Map of s

tate

or fl

ux

What is uncertainty here?

Map 2 of state or flux

Propagation

Model

Data

If we were all talking about the same thing, then we could put all

of our results together and everything should overlap!

Page 4: NASA CMS uncertainty working group

NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 4

Understand CMS projects

Online Survey

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsSSZURmMDWwdEl2eWY0WmpkYVlMdmhLV2ZGc25CX2c#gid=0

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NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 5ETC.

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NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 6

Page 7: NASA CMS uncertainty working group

NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 7

Types of uncertainty

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NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 8

Models and data are both wrong

Models are correct – errors

come from measurements and the initial guess of the

state.

1. Deterministic

2. Stochastic/Ens

emble

3. Model-data comparison

4. Model-model comparison

5. Data-Data comparison

Page 9: NASA CMS uncertainty working group

NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 9

* Numbers correspond to project IDs in

briefing material

appendix


Dealing with Uncertainty in Systems Engineering...Dealing with Uncertainty in Systems Engineering NASA Johnson Space Center Engineering Academy Seminar 26 July 2007 Mark A. Powell

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Package ‘uncertainty’ · Index 21 1. 2 uncertainty-package uncertainty-package Uncertainty Estimation and Contribution Analysis Description Uncertainty estimation and contribution

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Top$Quark$Physics$with$CMS$ · CMS Preliminary, 36 pb-1 at s = 7 TeV Figure 7: Likelihood as a function of the top quark mass from the fit to the data (left) and the estimated uncertainty

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Breakout Session Summary - NASA€¦ · The current models, MSIS-86 and MET, have uncertainty in the neutral density, which leads to further uncertainty in atomic oxygen fluence and

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CMS External Communications Working Group · CMS Uncertainty Working Group Summary, October 2013 Goal: Develop a structure to define how uncertainty is conceived and implemented across

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Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8×6 Supersonic … · Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn ... NASA counter-part of peer-reviewed formal ... 5.1.7 Reynolds Number ...

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