My view of monetary policy 2006-2011 Handelsbanken, March 18 th 2011 First Deputy Governor Svante...
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My view of monetary policy 2006-2011 Handelsbanken, March 18 th 2011 First Deputy Governor Svante Öberg
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Transcript of My view of monetary policy 2006-2011 Handelsbanken, March 18 th 2011 First Deputy Governor Svante...
My view of monetary policy
2006-2011Handelsbanken, March 18th
2011
First Deputy GovernorSvante Öberg
Figure 1. Real short-term interest rates in the USA and the euro areaPer cent
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Reuters
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
USA
Euro area
Figure 2. Real housing prices USAIndex 1950 = 100
Source: Robert J. Schiller, Princeton University
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Figure 3. Global GDP growthAnnual percentage change
Sources: IMF and the Riksbank
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Figure 4. Commodity pricesIndex 2005=100
Sources: The Economist and Reuters
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Total
Metals
Other agricultural products
Food
Crude oil
Figure 5. Nominal and real short-term interest rates in SwedenPer cent
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Statistics SwedenNote. Real rate is nominal rate deflated with CPIF.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Nominal short-term rate
Real short-term rate
Figure 6. GDP gap in real time and in February 2011Per cent
Source: The Riksbank
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
GDP gap in real time
MPR February 2011
Figure 7. InflationAnnual percentage change
Source: Statistics Sweden
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CPI
CPIF
HICP
Figure 8. Inflation expectationsPer cent
Source: TNS SIFO Prospera
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
1 year
2 years
5 years
Figure 9. Lending to households and house pricesAnnual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Lending to households
House prices
Figure 10. Nominal rate and Taylor ratePer cent
Source: The Riksbank
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Repo rate
Repo rate according to Taylor rule
Figure 11. GDP growthAnnual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Figure 12. UnemploymentPer cent, 3-month moving average, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Mean 2000-2008
Figure 13. InflationAnnual percentage change
Source: Statistics Sweden
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CPICPIFCPIF excluding energy and food
Figure 14. Central banks’ balance sheet totalsPercentage of GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11
The Riksbank
ECB
Federal reserve
Figure 15. Policy ratesPer cent
Source: Reuters EcoWin
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Sweden
Euro area
USA
Figure 16. Global GDP growthAnnual percentage change
Sources: IMF and the Riksbank
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
90 95 00 05 10
Figure 17. The repo rate and the repo-rate pathPer cent, quarterly mean values
Source: The Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Figure 18. InflationAnnual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CPI
CPIF
Figure 19. RU indicatorPer cent
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is zero and the standard deviation is 1.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Figure 20. UnemploymentPer cent, 3-month moving mean value, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Mean 2000-2008
Figure 21. Labour shortagesPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data, share of business sector companies
Source: NIER
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Mean 1996-2008
Figure 22. Beveridge curve Percentage of labour force
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
1988
1997
2007
2010
Sources: Employment Office and Statistics Sweden
Vaca
nci
es
Unemployment
