Munehiko Yamaguchi, Sharanya J. Majumdar (RSMAS/U. Miami) and multiple collaborators

3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium

14 Sep. 2009

Coordinated use of targeted observations during TCS-08/T-PARC

Outline of the talk

1. What we did before TCS-08/T-PARC

2. What we did during TCS-08/T-PARC

3. What we learned from TCS-08/T-PARC

I will talk about the above 3 from a

perspective of targeted observations

Pretty Simple…

Guideline on targeting products and timelinesAfter the Hawaii meeting in December 2007 (8 months before TCS-08/T-PARC), our targeting group created a guideline on targeting products and timelines because it was found that many institutes could provide the sensitive area calculations and the availability time of each guidance varied from one center to another. (Final version of the guideline was completed in July…)

Singular vectors

•ECMWF

•NRL (based on NOGAPS)

•JMA

•U Yonsei (based on MM5)

Adjoint based SAC

•NTU (ADSSV)

•NRL (based on COAMPS)

Ensemble based SAC

•UKMO (ETKF based on MOGREPS)

•U Miami/NCEP (ETKF based on NCEP + ECMWF + CMC ensembles)

•U Washington (Ensemble sensitivity based on WRF)

Ensemble variance

•NOAA (based on NCEP ensembles)

10 kinds of SAC in total (many talks and posters about

SAC and targeting during TTISS)

Sensitive Area Calculations (SAC)

• Automatic submission of 5 fixed areas

• Up to 5 additional areas chosen

interactively

• Flexible choice of targeting time

(t + 18 to 102 h)

and verification time

(t + 36 to 120 h)Courtesy of Sarah Jones, David Richardson, Cristina Prates and Cihan Sahin.

Websites providing sensitive area calculations

TC Date Aircraft

Non-typhoon 2008082600-2008090900 6 Falcon missions

TY Nuri 2008082012 DOTSTAR

TY Sinlaku 2008091000 DOTSTAR

TY Sinlaku 2008091100 - 2008091112

DOTSTAR and Falcon

TY Sinlaku 2008091400 Falcon

TS Sinlaku 2008091600 DOTSTAR and Falcon

TY Hagupit 2008092200 DOTSTAR

STY Jangmi 2008092700 DOTSTAR

TY Jangmi 2008092800 - 2008092812

DOTSTAR and Falcon

TS Jangmi 2008092906-2008100100 3 Falcon missionsJMA activated rapid-scan mode on MTSAT2 satellite between 2008091012-2008091306 and 2008092712-2008092812. Extra rawinsonde observations.

Summary of Missions

Targeting Elluminate Session

The targeting group hold an 1-hour Targeting Elluminate Session before the Daily Planning Meeting when targeting missions might be expected and mainly discussed about

1.Synopsis based on satellite images and analysis fields by global models such as ECMWF, UKMO, GFS and NOGAPS.

2.Available observation resources

3.Forecast uncertainty using ensemble products such as tracks and spread of Z500.

4.Sensitive area calculations

5.Tentative flight plan

Following 3 slides are the slides we really used in the Targeting Elluminate Session starting from 21UTC 9th September 2008 for a flight mission for Typhoon Sinlaku at 00 UTC 11th September 2008.

JMA Typhoon EPS JMA Typhoon EPS

2008.09.09 06UTC ini +132h2008.09.09 06UTC ini +132h

JMA Medium-Range EPS JMA Medium-Range EPS

2008.09.08 012UTC ini +216h2008.09.08 012UTC ini +216h

EPS track forecasts

ECMWF EPS ECMWF EPS

2008.09.08 12UTC ini +120h2008.09.08 12UTC ini +120h

GFS EPS GFS EPS

2008.09.09 12UTC ini +???h2008.09.09 12UTC ini +???h

Sensitive analysis calculations: Obs. Time 00Z 11th Sept.

ECMWF NOGAPS JMA

UM ETKF UK ETKF COAMPS

Joint Flight Plan: 00Z 11th Sept.

DOTSTAR (Blue) and Falcon (Red) Flight Plan

Canceled Flight: Mission at 00Z 12th Sept.

DOTSTAR

!!! Canceled !!!

The latest email from Wu-san said, “Concerning the weather condition not suitable for a feasible targeting flight, the DOTSTAR mission for 00UTC 12 Sept. has just been called off.”

Due to the weather condition, the planned DOTSTAR mission at 00UTC 12th Sept. was canceled.

Sensitive area not fully covered: Mission at 00Z 10th Sept.

ECMWF NOGAPS

Obs. Points cover sensitive regions proposed by guidance

Area surrounded by black line is also sensitive

DOTSTAR Flight Plan

JMA Due to the limited aircraft resources, the sensitivity area was not fully covered.

WITH DROPS

JMA BEST TRACK

WITHOUT DROPS

500 hPa ASYMMETRIC STREAMF’N DIFF

500 hPa ASYMMETRIC WIND DIFF

+00 h +00 h

+18 h +18 h

OSE using NCEP GFS for Sinlaku initiated at 00Z 10th Sept.

Large increments in the west edge of the Pacific High, leading to the persistent changes in the steering flow

Summary

1. The Guideline on targeting products and timelines were helpful in understanding when and what products were available at each meeting help in Monterey, Tokyo, Taiwan, etc.

2. The Websites were useful to compare the various kinds of sensitivity analysis guidance.

3. The targeting group hold the 1-hour Targeting Elluminate Session when targeting mission was expected.

4. We conducted targeting missions for 4 typhoons.

5. Due to the weather condition and limited aircraft resources, we had to be very flexible in the decision-making process.

Our multi-agency, multi-national involved targeting missions worked out!!

Short term goals

1. Observing System Experiment (OSE): Evaluate the impact of targeted observations based on sensitivity areas.

2. Understand the role of the additional observations in NWP models.It might happen that some observations lead to the deterioration of

model performance.

3. Evaluate fidelity of sensitivity analysis guidance (long targeting and verification time).

Long term goals

1. Demonstrate utility of targeted observations

2. Observation types: manned and unmanned aircraft, adaptive targeting/thinning of satellite winds and radiances, off-time rawinsondes, WISDOM, others…

3. Develop centralized, coordinated data targeting system for TCs, Winter Storms, others…?

4. Multi-agency, multi-national.

5. Saves time and human error; allows for archiving and evaluation.

6. Extend to 3-7 day track forecasts; intensity prediction