Munawar B. Ahmed Consult, A New Energy Mix for Pakistan

8/2/2019 Munawar B. Ahmed Consult, A New Energy Mix for Pakistan

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byMunawar B. Ahmad, PE

EMR-Consult

Oct. 2009

Energy is ourbusiness

MOVING TOWARDS ENERGY SUFFICIENCY,SUSTAINABILITY

&

SOVEREIGNTY

A NEW ENERGY MIX FOR PAKISTAN

THE PAKISTAN AND REGIONAL ENERGYFORUM


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1. ROOTS OF PAKISTANS ENERGY

CRISIS

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Pakistan today is caught up in an acute Energy Crisis which hasits roots in five (5) distinct causes, namely;

i. Lack of Integrated Energy Planning & Demand

Forecasting and absence of central & focused entity

responsible for the Energy Sector

ii. Imbalanced Energy Mix with heavy reliance on gas

(47.5%) and Oil (30.5%) (72% imported)

iii. Non-utilization of vast indigenous resources of Thar

Coal and Hydel potential

iv. Lack of effective project structuring, planning and

implementation of indentified and viable projects

v. Inadequate Primary Energy Sources or access to, or



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1. ROOTS OF PAKISTANS ENERGY

CRISIS

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As a consequence the energy shortages have snowballed withmajor supply chain and infrastructure gaps, namely;

i. The Electric Power Sector; has been in static non-growth

mode from 2003-2008, and the peak supply-demand gap has

grown to about 3,500 - 4,000 MW from about 1,000 MW in

2006. (Fig. I (a), I (b) )

ii. In the Gas Sector; the demand - supply gap that emerged in

2007 has grown to about 800 MMcfd in 2009 due to stalled

import projects (Mashal, IPI, PGP) and local fields not

developed / put in production for 5 years ( 500 MMcfd)

(Fig. II )

iii. Inadequate Energy Infrastructure; supply to end

customers both for electric power as well as fuel oil for Power



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4.1 - PAKISTANS PRIMARY ENERGY MIX

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Pakistans Primary Energy Mix is essentially imbalanced even on aworldwide comparative basis, with dependence on gas at 47.5%,oil at 30.5% (72% imported) (Fig. V )

The 2005 Energy Plan, projected a continuing dependence ofabout 48% on Natural Gas in the 2030 scenario, based on megaimports thru Transnational Pipelines (6.5 bcfd) and LNG (1.5 bcfd)(Fig. VI )

With the continuing delay in the planned TNPs and LNG importprojects (Mashal, PGP, Engro etc) the primary energy gap isincreasing at an alarming rate

By 2015 the natural gas supply-demand gap after LNG imports of1.0 bcfd (if implemented) will increase to 1.7 bcfd, and is unlikelyto be covered as IPI cannot be completed in this time frame

There is clearly an essential need to plan a revised PrimaryEnergy Mix along with a revised electricity generation plan bysource in the 2010 2030 scenario



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4.2 - PAKISTANS POWER GENERATION BYSOURCE

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With rising cost of crude oil from $ 60 in 2005 to $ 147 in 2008,Pakistans oil based thermal generation (32%) becameunsustainable and has resulted in a massive Energy Sectordebt ( $ 3.6 billion)

Coal utilization is about 9% in the Energy Mix, and only 0.1% forPower Generation vs. 72% in China, 56% in India and morethan 50% in the USA (Fig. VII )

New power generation has remained static for about 7 years(Fig. VIII )

A more rational and Sustainable Energy Mix must be plannedfor the 2010-2030 scenario.

Significant increase in hydel power generation and optimum useof coal thru gasification and clean coal technologies

As a strategic priority Nuclear Electric Energy has to beincreased to about 5% and Renewable to about 3% in the 2030



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Pakistans Thar Coal Potential Worlds Single largest contiguous Coal field extending over

10,000 Sq KMs (Fig- IX )

Reserves of 175 200 billions tons exceed oil equivalentreserves of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, with a value of several

trillion US$ (Figure-X ) Phased development can lead to 400 600 mt /year coal

mining in 20 years

All of Pakistans energy requirements (Electric, Power, Gas,Diesel) can be met in 2020 2030 scenario

The most recent ADB report (May 2007) states Thar ligniteonce mined, is a useable fuel or carbon resource andCoal to liquids-CTL is considered a serious utilizationoption

In addition to Electric Power, SNG, Chemicals, Fertilizer, etc canbe produced for self consumption and surplus can be exported

(Figure-XI )

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5.1 THAR COAL UTILIZATION


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Co-Production Plants based on Thar CoalGasification Coal production costs have to be in the range of $20 - $25 /tons, which

equates to a crude oil cost of about $50 per barrel in order to achieveeconomical levels

To achieve cost benchmark mine capacity of 50 mtons/year is required

in three phases of (1) 15 mtons/yr (2) 30 mtons/yr and (3) 50mtons/yr

Following co-production plants will need to be set-up in the threephases to match with coal production over 3-5 years;

Phase 1) IGCC 500 mw (3 mtons/yr) and SNG 250 mmcfd (12 mtons/yr). Total 15mt/yr

Phase 2) IGCC 500 mw (3 mtons/yr) and FTD 30,000 barrels/day (12 mtons/yr).Total 30 mt/yr

Phase 3) SNG 250 mmcfd (12 mtons/yr) and FTD 20,000 barrels/day (8

mtons/yr).Total 50 mt/yr

In subsequent phases, chemical and fertilizer plants would be set-up

as part of a Mega Petro-Chemical Complex which would be supportedby additional coal mining 7

Energy is our business

5.1 THAR COAL UTILIZATION


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5.2 - HYDEL POWER GENERATION

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The country has an estimated Hydro Resources Potential ofabout 45,000 MW, currently whereas only 6,500 MW have beeninstalled with 11% share in the Energy Mix.

It is proposed in the long term scenario to increase share ofHydro in Primary Energy from 6,500 MW (11%) at present toabout 32,100 MW (20%) by 2030 (30% share in PowerGeneration)

This will entail set up of 8,000 MW small/medium hydro units onrivers/canals, run of the river plants and four large hydro

multipurpose reservoirs/dams with capacity of about 17,600MW upto 2030

The four large Hydro Dams are, (i) Kalabagh 3,800 MW, (ii)Bhasha 4,600 MW, (iii) Bunji 5,400 MW, (iv) Dasu 3,800MW

It is necessary to maintain an optimal Hydro/Thermal Mix, in



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7. SET-UP OF NATIONAL ENERGY AUTHORITY -

NEA

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An essential step towards preparation and implementation of aNational Energy Plan is the set-up of a statutory body, The NationalEnergy Authority (NEA)

The NEA would be an independent and focal entity with a Chairmanand 12 Board members, (6 private sector professionals and 6 energy

sector experts, MDs etc from the Public Sector/GOP)

The NEA would be responsible for, and have the authority toundertake strategic planning in the Energy Sector and prepare acomprehensive ENERGY POLICY.

The NEA would prepare an integrated and Comprehensive National

Energy Plan (NEP) for the Short, Medium and Long Term based onrobust projections on a scientific basis.

The NEA would also identify, plan and pursue implementation ofEnergy Sector Infrastructure augmentation/expansion by the OMCs,PEPCO, SSGC, SNGPL etc.

The NEA would coordinate with the sectoral organizations, publiccompanies OMCs, E&P Companies, IPPs etc and relevant Ministries



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Figure-VII

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BYSOURCE 2007-2008


ELECTRICITY GENERATION BYSOURCE 2007-2008

China 72%

India 56%

USA 51%

Coal PowerGeneration


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Current 2008


2030 Per 2005 Energy Plan

Revised Plan 2030

PRIMARY ENERGY MIX (a)

Figure- XII


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Figure- XIII

Current 2008


2030 Per 2005 Energy Plan

Revised Plan 2030

ELECTRICITY GENERATION BYSOURCE (b)

Munawar B. Ahmed Consult, A New Energy Mix for Pakistan

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