©2017 Precision Technical Analysis Pvt Ltd | Authored By: Mr. Mandar Jamsandekar Disclaimer : This document has been prepared by Precision Technicals. It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein and is strictly meant for private circulation. Our levels are an opinion over the possible price movements of selected stocks in a specific time period. While sufficient analysis has been done in arriving at this opinion we do not undertake the responsibility of its accuracy in the price movements. Any decision taken by the investor will be at their own risk.

19 October 2017 www.precisiontechnicals.com Special Newsletter

MUHURAT PICK – DIWALI SPECIAL NEWSLETTER

WISH YOU A VERY HAPPY DIWALI WISH YOU A VERY HAPPY DIWALI WISH YOU A VERY HAPPY DIWALI WISH YOU A VERY HAPPY DIWALI

And And And And A PROFITABLE YEAR AHEADA PROFITABLE YEAR AHEADA PROFITABLE YEAR AHEADA PROFITABLE YEAR AHEAD….….….….

HAPPY INVESTING AND HAPPY EDUCATING!!!HAPPY INVESTING AND HAPPY EDUCATING!!!HAPPY INVESTING AND HAPPY EDUCATING!!!HAPPY INVESTING AND HAPPY EDUCATING!!!

SAMVAT 2073

SAMVAT 2073 was a period best described with the image below. I created it on 10 September 2016 based on a thought which came to my mind. It was mainly based on the discussions which were happening with clients and the doubts or queries that were coming up during that period.

SAMVAT 2073, was a boon for the financial markets. It started with the biggest surprise for all in form of demonetization followed later with the biggest reform in Free India, which was the GST. The ban on old notes of 500 and 1000 denomination shook up the whole of the country. Whether it hit the black money hoarders hard has been a topic of a debate but it surely increased the fund flow in the financial markets. Nifty 50 index which was trading at 7900 levels during December 2016 till now in the last 10 months has seen a rally of 2350 points. My personal experience has been positive. In the last 4 years I had put in lot of efforts to convince many clients about equity and mutual fund investments but they always had an upper hand in telling me as to why they prefer real estate and gold to invest. These people in the last 10 months have started investing in equity and mutual funds. Though the amounts are small atleast a start has been initiated and I believe this is an extremely positive step. As the note ban was settling down we had the implementation of GST (Goods & Services Tax). As usual with an Indian mentality of ‘nothing can happen in our country’ people took this reform lightly but this time the government has been hyperactive in the implementation. The first two months of implementation of this reform have witnessed good jump in the revenue for the government in form of indirect taxes. I love a quote by Robin Sharma, I believe the quote suits this reform very well. The quote is:

ALL CHANGE IS HARD AT FIRST, MESSY IN THE MIDDLE AND SO GORGEOUS AT THE END.

I am sure we all by now know the positive impact that this reform will have on our economy. The Government has been working on the right ideas and has managed to take the right steps. It needs to put in more efforts in creating jobs. This is one area which is critical for the economy going forward. OVERALL A GOOD YEAR.

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©2017 Precision Technical Analysis Pvt Ltd | Authored By: Mr. Mandar Jamsandekar Disclaimer : This document has been prepared by Precision Technicals. It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein and is strictly meant for private circulation. Our levels are an opinion over the possible price movements of selected stocks in a specific time period. While sufficient analysis has been done in arriving at this opinion we do not undertake the responsibility of its accuracy in the price movements. Any decision taken by the investor will be at their own risk.

Learning from the past mistakes it is time for us to look forward for A NEW TOMORROW and A NEW OPPORTUNITY. DIWALI IS A FESTIVAL OF LIGHTS, IT SIGNIFIES THE VICTORY OF LIGHT OVER DARKNESS, TRUTH OVER FALSEHOOD, KNOWLEDGE OVER IGNORANCE, GOOD OVER EVIL, HOPE OVER DESPAIR.

Taking Advantage Of This Auspicious Occasion Of DIWALI & Laxmi Poojan Let Me Say 'THANK YOU'. I am grateful to all my teammates, friends and clients who are a part of this PRECISION TECHNICALS family, for having stood by me and with my company. You have been the real strength for us to pump up and go on. I promise that we will continue to keep LEARNING, INNOVATING and doing things more PROFESSIONALLY than earlier. In this Special Muharat Newsletter we will be looking at the opportunities which (the next year) SAMVAT 2074 has in store for us.

WELCOME SAMVAT 2074

The coming SAMVAT is expected to be another good year for the stock markets. The main reason for this is the liquidity. The domestic fund flow in the last 10 months has been so high that it could set off the selling which was done by the foreign institutional investors. As you know the FII’s have been sellers throughout this period. In the next 6 months the shakeup done by two major events demonetization and implementation of GST will be behind us and that will help all to see the future with much more clarity than ever. Will the foreigners stay out and away from India? Everybody knows the answer. They invest in countries where their money will grow. India is the sweetest spot in the world today with Macro situation at a good level, inflation in control, reforms process much faster than ever. With interest rates in a down cycle, the equity and the mutual fund investments will continue to see domestic fund flow and to add to this once things settle down we will also witness the foreign fund flow coming back.

On the global front the next big event is in form of the FED interest rate hike scheduled for their December policy meet. Once this happens somewhere between January and March we should be able to see the FII getting active in the Indian markets. By then everybody will also be able to evaluate the third quarter earnings. The third quarter earnings will play an important role in deciding the state of the economy as by then the current reforms will get ample time to settle down.

One important damning factor in all the positives is North Korea. I feel it does need a mention in this article so that we balance it out. This is a major risk on the global front. There are some risks which are known for which we can have a stop loss but then there are some risks which are unknown, for which you have very little to nothing to be done to protect yourself. NK is such a case where we cannot do much.

History tells us that the markets have braved all such events in the past. If you have faith that they may be able to do it again then no issues. If you have doubts then the best option for you is to invest via the mutual fund route where in the risk is lower if compared to direct equity investment.

©2017 Precision Technical Analysis Pvt Ltd | Authored By: Mr. Mandar Jamsandekar Disclaimer : This document has been prepared by Precision Technicals. It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein and is strictly meant for private circulation. Our levels are an opinion over the possible price movements of selected stocks in a specific time period. While sufficient analysis has been done in arriving at this opinion we do not undertake the responsibility of its accuracy in the price movements. Any decision taken by the investor will be at their own risk.

Let’s look at the PROFISION charts to understand the Technical view:

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR SAMVAT 2074

Nifty 50 Index – Long Term View

Nifty long term chart clearly tells us that the markets are in the mood to stay in an uptrend. The recent up move started at 7900 in December 2016 and currently is trading at 10250. The index has rallied by 2350 points till now and that makes people feel fearful of the current levels. Two rallies, the one between 2008 and 2010 and then the second one between 2013 and 2015 have seen the Nifty rally first by 4080 points and in the second case by 3991 points. This tells us that the current rally of 2350 points compared to the moves in the past still has legs. An important point when we take this view is whether the index is going to through the required corrections or consolidations; this can be observed on the weekly time period chart below.

The weekly chart shows us the way the index has managed to take breathers after every up move. These breathers are important for the rally to sustain. They also tell us that it is not a euphoric rally where in investors are investing blindly. In the last four months the Nifty has gone through a similar period of consolidation. During this time the Nifty was stuck in a range between 9700 and 10150. Recently the index has managed to move above this range but we need more confirmation for us to call it as a valid breakout. I suggest this, as right now we are in a middle of the second quarter earnings season.

©2017 Precision Technical Analysis Pvt Ltd | Authored By: Mr. Mandar Jamsandekar Disclaimer : This document has been prepared by Precision Technicals. It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein and is strictly meant for private circulation. Our levels are an opinion over the possible price movements of selected stocks in a specific time period. While sufficient analysis has been done in arriving at this opinion we do not undertake the responsibility of its accuracy in the price movements. Any decision taken by the investor will be at their own risk.

If we come across multiple disappointments in the earnings then the Nifty can slide down back into the range that the Nifty has been trading in for the last 4 months.

In the recent past we have witnessed the interest spreading across sectors which till now have never been able to shine. But now due to the solid flow of liquidity the price discovery in these counters too is working well. This is a reason due to which I feel one should avoid looking at the index, instead focus more on stock specific action.

This time we will also look at the Bank Nifty which is equally important, because for the Nifty to sustain its up move it is important for the banking index to provide support.

The Bank Nifty for now is stuck in a consolidation. The range for the Bank Nifty is between 25200 and 23800. The index for now on the short term chart is showing signs of weakness, on medium term charts it is in a consolidation but the long term trend remains up. This tells is that possibly in the immediate short term we may not see major upsides in the banking index. We need to take a review as and when the levels are breached.

CONCLUSION: The Nifty 50 index has more legs compared to the moves that it has witnessed in the past. The long term trend remains in an uptrend. Short term can be of consolidation. A good consolidation will help the index continue to move in a strong and sustained up move. Banking index needs to provide support for the Nifty to stay up, which right now it is not doing and therefore possibly in the immediate short term the Nifty 50 index may go through a consolidation.

SAMVAT 2074 will be a scrip specific, company specific year. We will come across plenty of stocks or companies which will show us turnarounds in form of business and also on the charts in form of rounding bottoms.

©2017 Precision Technical Analysis Pvt Ltd | Authored By: Mr. Mandar Jamsandekar Disclaimer : This document has been prepared by Precision Technicals. It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein and is strictly meant for private circulation. Our levels are an opinion over the possible price movements of selected stocks in a specific time period. While sufficient analysis has been done in arriving at this opinion we do not undertake the responsibility of its accuracy in the price movements. Any decision taken by the investor will be at their own risk.

As the markets consolidate it is a great time for all of us to prepare for the good times to come. As they say 'More You Sweat In Practice, The Less You Bleed In War'. This is a time for you to start practicing charts, monitoring and analyzing them. Charts not only help in picking opportunities but they also help in implementing risk management.

Always remember 'OPPORTUNITIES DO NOT HAVE A HABIT OF SENDING AN SMS BEFORE THEY COME'. Therefore you have to been in touch with charts to pick the right opportunity at the right time.

All bull runs are built on fear and the same can be observed currently. Remember in the stock markets if you stay invested for a long period of time then the results are amazing. YOU SHOULD ALSO KNOW THAT 'BEING IN THE STOCK MARKET IS LIKE BEING A SWIMMER IN THE SWIMMING POOL'. EVEN IF YOU ARE AN EXPERT SWIMMER YOU HAVE TO SWALLOW SOME WATER NOW AND THEN TO CONTINUE TO SWIM AND HAVE A GREAT TIME DOING SO AFTER SOME TIME. IN THE SAME WAY IN THE STOCK MARKETS TOO BEING AN INVESTOR YOU HAVE TO BE READY FOR TAKING LOSSES NOW AND THEN - ACCEPT A MISTAKE AND MOVE ON. In the long run equities perform better than any other investment class and the most important thing is in India long term profits in equities are not taxable. ON THIS POSITIVE NOTE, LET ME WISH YOU A VERY HAPPY DIWALI…

May the coming SAMVAT 2074 present you with PLENTY of MULTIBAGGER stocks, PLENTY of PEACE and the BEST TIME OF YOUR LIFE….

Performance of the last year’s Portfolio for SAMVAT 2073:

Sr No Reco Date Stock Name Reco Close Current Date Current Close Performance

1 30-Oct-16 SINTEX 89.70 18-Oct-17 26.95

8-Aug-17 SINTEX PASTIC 18-Oct-17 91.30 32%

2 30-Oct-16 ARVIND 414.10 18-Oct-17 400.10 -3%

3 30-Oct-16 MAN INFRA 52.50 18-Oct-17 62.60 19%

4 30-Oct-16 DISHMAN PHARMA 242.15 18-Oct-17 300.40 24%

5 30-Oct-16 MCX 1,285.75 18-Oct-17 1,112.50 -13%

6 30-Oct-16 KOTAK BANK 819.35 18-Oct-17 1,095.90 34%

7 30-Oct-16 BRITANNIA 3,311.95 18-Oct-17 4,685.85 41%

8 30-Oct-16 TVS MOTORS 405.00 18-Oct-17 689.95 70%

Note: Samvat 2074 Portfolio is available inside PROFISION.

Happy Investing & Happy Educating!

Article Authored By - Mandar Jamsandekar (Research Analyst - Reg No INH000000495)

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1. The research analysis is done as per the Internal Policies and Procedures as mentioned on our website / this link - http://precisiontechnicals.com/internal-policy.html.

2. Research Disclaimer and Disclosure is available in PROFISION under the HELP menu and it is also available on our website / this link http://precisiontechnicals.com/disclaimer.html.

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