MPU April
21
MPU April
description
MPU April. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages. Source: The Riksbank. Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of MPU April
MPU April
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages
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890%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
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690%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 3. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
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490%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 4. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
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90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 5. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally-adjusted data
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April
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 6. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
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80 85 90 95 00 05 10
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Unemployment, 16-64 years
Unemployment, 15-74 years
April
February
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years.
Figure 7. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
3800
4000
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4800
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80 85 90 95 00 05 10
3800
4000
4200
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5000Employed, 16-64 years
Employed, 15-74 years
Labour force, 16-64 years
Labour force, 15-74 years
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 year.
Figure 8. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy
Annual percentage change
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CPIF
CPIF excluding energy
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 9. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
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April
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 10. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100
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04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
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February
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 11. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel
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Futures up to and including 2010-04-13
Futures up to and including 2010-02-04
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the RiksbankNote. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average.
Figure 12. Development of GDP in different regions and countries
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Sweden
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USA
Figure 13. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend
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80 85 90 95 00 05 10
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5GDP
Hours worked
Employment
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Table A1. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average values
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013
Repo rate 0.25 (0.25) 0.25 (0.25) 1.1 (1.1) 2.8 (2.8) 4.0 (4.0)
Source: The Riksbank
Table A2. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change
2009 2010 2011 2012
CPI -0.3 (-0.3) 1.1 (1.6) 2.1 (2.9) 2.9 (3.1)
CPIF 1.9 (1.9) 2.0 (1.9) 1.3 (1.4) 1.8 (1.8)
CPIF excl. energy 2.3 (2.3) 1.6 (1.7) 1.4 (1.5) 1.8 (1.9)
HICP 1.9 (1.9) 2.0 (1.8) 1.1 (1.3) 1.6 (1.7)
Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A3. Summary of financial forecastsAnnual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified
* Per cent of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2009 2010 2011 2012
Repo rate 0.7 (0.7) 0.4 (0.4) 1.8 (1.8) 3.3 (3.3)
10-year rate 3.3 (3.3) 3.5 (3.6) 4.0 (4.1) 4.4 (4.6) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 140.2 (140.2) 128.9 (131.8) 126.0 (128.2) 126.4 (127.7)
General government net lending* -0.8 (-1.5) -1.2 (-1.5) 0.0 (-0.1) 1.0 (0.7)
Table A4. International conditionsAnnual percentage change
GDP 2009 2010 2011 2012
Euro area -4.0 (-3.9) 0.9 (1.2) 1.6 (1.6) 2.2 (2.2) USA -2.4 (-2.4) 3.2 (3.5) 3.0 (3.0) 2.8 (2.8)
Japan -5.2 (-5.3) 1.9 (1.3) 2.0 (2.0) 1.8 (1.8)
OECD -3.4 (-3.4) 2.3 (2.3) 2.6 (2.6) 2.7 (2.7)
TCW-weighted -3.8 (-3.7) 1.3 (1.4) 2.0 (2.0) 2.2 (2.2)
World -0.7 (-0.9) 4.0 (3.9) 4.2 (4.2) 4.2 (4.4)
2009 2010 2011 2012
Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 62 (62) 82 (77) 87 (82) 88 (85)
Swedish export market -13.2 (-12.7) 5.0 (7.2) 7.9 (7.7) 8.2 (8.1)
Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
CPI 2009 2010 2011 2012
USA 0.3 (0.3) 1.2 (1.2) 1.3 (1.3) 1.7 (1.7) Japan -0.3 (-0.3) 1.9 (2.3) 1.9 (2.0) 2.2 (2.2) Euro area (HICP) -1.4 (-1.3) -1.0 (-0.9) 0.0 (0.0) 0.5 (0.5)
TCW-weighted 0.5 (0.5) 1.4 (1.3) 1.4 (1.4) 1.8 (1.8)
Table A5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
2009 2010 2011 2012
Private consumption -0.8 (-0.5) 2.2 (2.7) 2.4 (2.3) 2.0 (2.0) Public consumption 2.1 (2.7) 1.0 (1.6) 0.6 (0.6) 0.6 (0.6) Gross fixed capital formation -15.3 (-13.9) 2.0 (1.5) 5.6 (5.2) 6.0 (5.9) Inventory investment* -1.5 (-1.7) 1.8 (1.1) 0.5 (0.5) 0.0 (0.0) Exports -12.5 (-12.4) 4.0 (6.2) 7.5 (7.1) 7.2 (7.3) Imports -13.4 (-13.1) 7.8 (8.8) 6.4 (6.4) 6.5 (6.5) GDP -4.9 (-4.5) 2.2 (2.5) 3.7 (3.4) 3.1 (3.1) GDP, calendar-adjusted -4.7 (-4.4) 1.8 (2.3) 3.7 (3.4) 3.5 (3.5) Final figure for domestic demand* -2.8 (-2.2) 1.7 (2.0) 2.3 (2.2) 2.2 (2.2) Net exports* -0.5 (-0.6) -1.3 (-0.7) 0.9 (0.8) 0.8 (0.9) Current account (NA), per cent of GDP
7.2 (7.2) 5.8 (6.3) 6.4 (6.6) 7.0 (7.1)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A6. Production and employmentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
2009 2010 2011 2012
Population, aged 16-64 0.7 (0.7) 0.5 (0.5) 0.2 (0.2) 0.0 (0.0) GDP, calendar-adjusted -4.7 (-4.4) 1.8 (2.3) 3.7 (3.4) 3.5 (3.5) Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted -2.6 (-2.5) 0.0 (-1.2) 0.6 (0.5) 0.8 (1.1) Employed, aged 15-74 -2.0 (-2.0) 0.2 (-0.9) 0.3 (0.0) 0.5 (0.5) Labour force, aged 15-74 0.2 (0.2) 0.9 (0.3) 0.0 (-0.1) 0.1 (0.2) Unemployment, aged 15-74 * 8.4 (8.4) 9.0 (9.4) 8.8 (9.4) 8.4 (9.1)
* Per cent of labour forceSources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
2009 2010 2011 2012
Hourly wage, NMO 3.4 (3.4) 2.3 (2.4) 2.4 (2.4) 2.9 (2.8) Hourly wage, NA 3.0 (2.8) 2.1 (2.3) 2.6 (2.6) 3.1 (3.1) Employer’s contribution* -0.9 (-0.3) -0.2 (-0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) Hourly labour cost, NA 2.1 (2.4) 1.9 (2.2) 2.6 (2.6) 3.2 (3.1)
Productivity -2.2 (-1.9) 1.9 (3.5) 3.1 (2.9) 2.7 (2.4) Unit labour cost 4.4 (4.4) 0.0 (-1.3) -0.5 (-0.2) 0.5 (0.7)
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
