Moscow January 21, 2015 An overview of STI statistics and indicators Giorgio Sirilli ISCrES - CNR.

MoscowJanuary 21, 2015

An overview of STI statistics and indicators

Giorgio SirilliISCrES - CNR

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Outline of the presentation

STI indicatorsSTI policyThe actorsModels of innovationManualsUses and abuses of indicatorsConcluding remarks

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Science, technology and innovation

Science is the reasoned investigation or study of phenomena, aimed at discovering enduring principles among elements of the phenomenal world by employing formal techniques such as the scientific method

Technology is the collection of tools, including machinery, modifications, arrangements and procedures used by humans

Innovation is the process practical application of knowledge translating an idea or invention into a good or service that creates value or for which customers will pay

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Statistic: A numerical fact or datum, i.e. one computed from a sample.

Statistical data: Data from a survey or administrative source used to produce statistics.

Statistical indicator: A statistic, or combinations of statistics, providing information on some aspect of the state of a system or of its change over time. (For example, gross domestic product (GDP) provides information on the level of value added in the economy, and its change overtime is an indicator of the economic state of the nation.)

Indicators

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Indicators are a technology, a product, which- governs behaviour- is modified by users (outside of the producer community)- develops in response to user needs

Data sources– Surveys, administrative data, private files, case studies– Data collection is informed by manualsData populate statistics which can be indicatorsDecisions are taken on the basis of indicators

Indicators

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Science and technology indicators

S&T indicators are defined as “a series of data which measures and reflects the science and technology endeavor of a country, demonstrates its strengths and weaknesses and follows its changing character notably with the aim of providing early warning of events and trends which might impair its capability to meet the country’s needs”.

Indicators can help “to shape lines of argument and policy reasoning. They can serve as checks, they are only part of what is needed”.

(OECD, 1976)

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“If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.”

Lord Kelvin

Lord Kelvin

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“If you can not measure it, don’t talk about it.”

Ariolf Grupp

Hariolf Grupp

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The evolution of STI indicators

The first attempt to measure S&T in 1957Frascati Manual (1963)The Frascati manual “family”A continous process of broadening and deepening: from

macro to micro, from public to privateThe role of international organisationsThe dialogue between producers and users

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Science and technology policy

A history which starts after WW2

1940s 2010s

science technology innovation competitiveness social needs

jobs

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Report “Science the Endless Frontier” 1945 (Vannevar Bush)

Science and technology policy

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“Science the Endless Frontier”

Concerns: Military security; Health

Solution: Science policy

“The Government is particularly fitted to perform certain functions, such as the coordination and support of broad programs on problems of great national importance”

“Scientific progress on a broad front results from the play of free intellects, working on subjects of their own choice, in the manner dictated by their curiosity for exploration of the unknown. Freedom of inquiry must be preserved under any plan for Government support of science”

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“Publicly and privately supported colleges and universities and the endowed research institutes must furnish both the new scientific knowledge and the trained research workers. It is chiefly in these institutions that scientists may work in an atmosphere which is relatively free from the adverse pressure of convention, prejudice, or commercial necessity. At their best they provide the scientific worker with a strong sense of solidarity and security, as well as a substantial degree of personal intellectual freedom.”

“Industry is generally inhibited by preconceived goals, by its own clearly defined standards, and by the constant pressure of commercial necessity. Satisfactory progress in basic science seldom occurs under conditions prevailing in the normal industry laboratory.”

“Science the Endless Frontier”

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The triangle in STI policy making

Policy makers design the future

Analysts interpret today

Data producers measure the past

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Luigi EinaudiItalian President

“Conoscere per deliberare”

Know first and then sanction

Policy makers

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Policy makers

President Roosevelt Vannevar Bush

Report “Science the Endless Frontier” 1945

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Policy makers

“Why shoud we pay the researchers if we make the best shoes in the world?”Silvio Berlusconi

“Culture does not provide food”(Con la cultura non si mangia)Giulio Tremonti

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After WWII the main issue in STI policy was the social responsibility of science. Now the attention is placed on the social return of investment on STI and, in particular, on innovation and social objectives

Weak innovation theories do not allow a straighforward interpretation of indicators

A tension: the simplification of policy makers (e.g. the 3% R&D/GDP ratio) versus deepening of analysts

The time dimension: demand of indicators and analyses (quick and dirty) but …. the construction of indicators is a “heavy ship” (more than 10 years to build)

The relationship between producers and users

OECD Group of ‘National Experts on Science and Technology

Indicators’ - NESTI

Producers of indicators

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NESTI: Working Party of National Experts on Science and Technology Indicators (1962)

Mission:Produce methodologies, statistics and analysesCo-ordinating bodyClearing house

NESTI

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OECD and member countriesEurostat and the relevant Commission DGs and

member states of the EUUNESCOUnited Nations Institute of StatisticsRICYT and member countriesNEPAD is moving in this direction

International organisations active in STI indicators

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In the 1960s few countries collected data on S&TThe OECD offered a ready-made model for those who had not yet

developed the necessary instrumentsStandardisation was proposed by an international organisation and

not by a specific countryThe Frascati Manual was introduced with a petits pas strategy

- the first edition was an internal document only (1962)- the Manual was tested (1963-1964) in many countries- it was revised in light of the experience gained from the surveys

The Frascati Manual has never been an imperative document: countries are totally free to apply its conventions

No harmonised questionnaire

The role of OECD in the development of S&T measurement in the 1960s

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United Nations Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics

Official statistics provide an indispensable element in the information system of a democratic society. They need to be compiled and made available on an impartial basis by official agencies.

To retain trust in official statistics, the statistical agencies need to decide according to strictly professional considerations on methods and procedures.

To facilitate a correct interpretation of the data, the statistical agencies are to present information according to scientific standards on the sources, methods and procedures of the statistics.

Source: UN Statistical commission

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Data for statistical purposes may be drawn from all types of sources, be they statistical surveys or administrative records.

Individual data collected by statistical agencies are to be strictly confidential and used exclusively for statistical purposes.

The laws, regulations and measures under which the statistical systems operate are to be made public.

Coordination among statistical agencies is essential.

United Nations Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics

Source: UN Statistical commission

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The “dangerous” business of statisticians

What matters is not how one fashions things, but what one does with them; not the weapon, but the battle (…). The making and the using of the tool are different things.

O. Spenger, Man and Technics: A Contribution to a Philosophy of Life, 1932

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The members of the indicators community have to play the difficult game of finding a proper balance between data collection, analysis and policy making – preserving their intellectual integrity

Indicators community

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Models of innovation

Indicators make sense in the context of models

Linear

Chain-linked

Triple helix

Open innovation

Research Development ProductionDesign Engineering

• Based on research

• Sequential

• Technocratic

The Linear model of innovation

•Mercato•potenziale

• Invenzione/•progettazione

• analitica

•Progettazione •dettagliata e

• test

•Distribuzione•e mercato

•Ricerca

Potential

market

Invention/

analytical

project

Detailed

project

& test

Re-design &

productionDistribution

& market

Research

Knowledge

Based on designInteractiveResearch is not a pre-requisite for innovation

The Chain-linked model of innovation

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The Triple-helix model of innovation

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The Triple-helix model of innovation

Government

Government-sponsored Research Institutes

Research for public purposes

Applied research

Universities

Supply scientists & engineers

Curiosity-driven

Basic research

Firms

Commercialisation

Produce innovationDevelopment (R&D))

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Open innovation

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Open innovation

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Open innovation

OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard, 2013

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Open innovation


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Open innovation


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Relationship between research, develoment and innovation

R&D INNOVATION

Applied research

Experimental development

Commercialisation

Distribution

Production

Intellectual property rights

Technical assistance

Basic research

Industralisation

Overlapping area

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Manuals are codified knowledge

They are guidelines for the collection and interpretation of data and for international comparisons of data, statistics and indicators.

They are supported by an international infrastructure (ISIC, ISCED and ISCO)

Manuals provide a language of discourse and they behave like a technology (our guiding assumption)

What is a Manual?

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The OECD “Frascati Manual family”

1. The Measurement of Scientific and Technical Activities: Proposed Standard Practice for Surveys of Research and Development. Frascati Manual (2002)

2. Proposed Guidelines for Collecting and Interpreting Technological Innovation Data Oslo Manual (2005)

3. Patent Statistics Manual (1994)4. Manual on the Measurement of Human Resources in

Science and Technology Canberra Manual (1995)5. Proposed Standard Practice for the Collection and

Interpretation of Data on the Technological Balance of Payments (1992)

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Bibliometrics Manual

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The OECD “Frascati manual family”

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Other related manuals and classifications

System of National Accounts – SNA (CEC et al., 1994)

International Standard Industrial Classification – ISIC Rev. 3.1 (UN, 2002)

Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community – NACE Rev. 1.1 – series 2E.

Nomenclature for the analysis and comparison of scientific programmes and budgets (NABS 2007)

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The Frascati Manual

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Freeman: the first edition of the Frascati Manual (1962)

Freeman proposed standardised definitions, concepts, methodologies for conducting R&D surveys and measuring inputs, namely money devoted to R&D and S&T personnel.

Four topics:- definition of research (basic, applied, development)- demarcation with other S&T activities (teaching, production, etc.), - economic sectors (university, government, industry, pnp)- surveying methodology

The underlying model: linear

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The R&D data

Money

1.Expenditure (GERD)

2.Budget appropriations (GBAORD)

People

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Research and experimental development (R&D) comprise creative work undertaken on a systematic basis in order to increase the stock of knowledge, including knowledge of man, culture and society, and the use of knowledge to devise new applications

Basic research

Applied research

Experimental development

Frascati Manual: The definition of R&D

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Frascati Manual: the definition of R&D personnel

R&D personnel All persons employed directly on R&D should be counted, as well as those providing direct services such as R&D managers, administrators, and clerical staff

Researchers

Technicians and equivalent staff

Other supporting staff

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Oslo Manual

Harmonised questionnaire

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Types of innovation

Product innovation (goods and services)

Process innovation

Marketing innovation

Organisational innovation

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Types of innovation

A product innovation is the introduction of a good or service that is new or significantly improved with respect to its characteristics or intended uses. This includes significant improvements in technical specifications, components and materials, incorporated software, user friendliness or other functional characteristics.A process innovation is the implementation of a new or significantly improved production or delivery method. This includes significant changes in techniques, equipment and/or softwareA marketing innovation is the implementation of a new marketing method involving significant changes in product design or packaging, product placement, product promotion or pricing.An organisational innovation is the implementation of a new organisational method in the firm’s business practices, workplace organisation or external relations.

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Types of innovation

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A systems approach

Actors: Governments, education and health institutions, business, foreign institutions

Activities: R&D, invention, innovation, diffusion of technologies and practices, HR development

Linkages: Contracts, collaborations, co-publication, grants, monitoring

Outcomes: Wealth, growth, jobsImpacts: Wellbeing, culture change, global influence

The activity of innovation is dynamic, complex, non-linear and global

Innovation: the system approach

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MonitoringBenchmarkingForesightEvaluationResearch

Use of indicators

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Monitoring: Comparing the values of a set of indicators over time

Some questions:• How much does the government spend on STI?• Where does it spend it (geography and industry)?• Why does it spend it (socio-economic objectives)?• What does the government get for spending this money?

Some Publications:• European Innovation Scoreboard• OECD STI Scoreboard• OECD Science, Technology and Industry Outlook

Use of indicators

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Monitoring: Comparing the values of a set of indicators over time

Indicators:• Innovation• R&D• Capital investment• Intellectual property rights• Learning• Education• Design

Use of indicators

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Benchmarking:

1. Decide upon a set of indicators which are relevant to policy objectives, and then decide about targets to be achieved

2. Agree on a set of indicators and then select another system which is performing better

Examples:Ranking of countries and institutionsThe 3% Lisbon target and ensuing policies (focus the public

debate)

Use of indicators

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R&D intensity in Italy: the Fata Morgana of 3%

•1970 •1990•1980 •2010 •2020

1.2%

1,5%

3,0%

•1960 •2000 •2030

•Dagli anni 60 ad oggi il rapporto R&S/Pil è rimasto invariato, intorno all’1,1%. Si può prevedere che nei prossimi anni rimarrà agli stessi livelli o che possa aumentare lievemente (l’1,5% teoricamente possibile è rimasto una chimera). L’obiettivo di Lisbona e Barcellona è stato clamorosamente mancato non soltanto in

Italia, ma anche in Europa, anche se è stato riconfermato dai capi di governo per il prossimo futuro.

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Foresight: viewing the future involving a mix of quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods, including a set of a current set of indicators. Discern likely paths for emerging technologies, possible futures for an economic region, or alternative responses to a coming problem such as the country should function when the oil runs out.

Indicators provide a background to the process but in general are too aggregated

Use of indicators

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Evaluation: concerns the effective and efficient use allocation of resources in order to achieve a set of objectives

Various methods:Quantitative (bibliometric analysis, turnover from new products,

audits, etc.) and qualitative (peer review)Research Assessment Exercise in the UK (now Research

Excellence Framework VEDERE)

The use of indicators

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Composite indicators

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EU Summary Innovation Index

Composite indicator (25 indicators)

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25

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The EU Summary Innovation Index

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The EU innovation performance indicatorSummary Innovation Index

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Summary Innovation Index (ctd)

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Summary Innovation Index for EU countries

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Profile of Italy

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Global innovation performance

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Innovation performance of Russia

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Innovation performance of Russia

In February 2008, the President of the French Republic, Nicholas Sarkozy, asked Joseph Stiglitz , Amartya Sen, and Jean Paul Fitoussi to create a Commission, subsequently called “The Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress”.

The Commission’s aim has been to identify the limits of GDP as an indicator of economic performance and social progress, including the problems with its measurement; to consider what additional information might be required for the production of more relevant indicators of social progress; to assess the feasibility of alternative measurement tools, and to discuss how to present the statistical information in an appropriate way.

The Stiglitz report

12 domains1.Health2.Education and training3.Work and life balance4.Economic well-being5.Social relationships6.Politics and Institutions7.Security8.Subjective well-being9.Landscape and cultural heritage10.Environment11.Research and innovation12.Quality of services

"Gdp and beyond"

Equitable and sustainable well-being

Features of the composite indicator1.Comparisons across space2.Comparison across time3.Non-substituability on elementary indicators4.Simplicity and transparency in calculation5.Immediate use and easy interpretation of results6.Robustness

Methodology

“Corrected MPI”, Mazziotta M., Pareto A. (2013). A Non-compensatory Composite Index for Measuring Well-being over Time. Cogito. MultidisciplinaryResearch Journal, vol. V, n. 4

"Gdp and beyond"


1. Intensity of research: Percentage of R&D expenditure on GDP.

2. Propensity to patent: Number of patent applications filed to the European Patent Office (EPO) per million of inhabitants..

3. Impact of knowledge workers on employment: Percentage of persons employed with university education (ISCED 5-6) in scientific-technological occupations (ISCO 2-3) on total persons employed.

4. Innovation rate of the productive system: Percentage of firms that have introduced technological (product or process), organizational or marketing innovation in a three-year period on total number of firms with at least 10 number of persons employed.


5. Innovation rate of product/service of the national productive system: Percentage of firms that have introduced innovations of product/service in a three-years period on total number of firms with at least 10 number of persons employed .

6. Productive specialization in knowledge-intensive sectors: Percentage of persons employed in high-tech manufacturing sectors and those in knowledge-intensive services on total of persons employed.

7. Intensity of Internet use: Percentage of people aged 16-74 years who have used internet at least once a week during the 12 months before the interview on total people aged 16-74 years.

Equitable and sustainable well-being (ctd)

Ranking of universities

Four major sources

ARWU Shangai (Shangai, Jiao Tong University)QS World University Ranking THE University Ranking (Times Higher Education)US News e World Reports (Best Global Universities)

“Starting from 2003, ARWU has been presenting the world Top 500 universities annually based on a set of objective indicators and third-party data. ARWU has been recognized as the precursor of global university rankings and the most trustworthy league table. ARWU adopts six objective indicators to rank world universities, including:-the number of alumni and staff winning Nobel Prizes and Fields Medals, -the number of Highly Cited Researchers, -the number of articles published in journals of Nature and Science, -the number of articles indexed in Science Citation Index - Expanded and Social Sciences Citation Index, and -per capita performance. More than 1200 universities are actually ranked by ARWU every year and the best 500 universities are published.”

Academic Ranking of World Universities Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Criteria selected as the key pillars of what makes a world class university:ResearchTeachingEmployabilityInternationalisation Facilities Social ResponsibilityInnovationArts & Culture InclusivenessSpecialist Criteria

TopUNIVERSITIES Worldwide university rankings, guides & events

ResearchIndicators considered here include assessments of research quality amongst academics, productivity (i.e. number of papers published), citations (i.e. how recognized and referred to those papers are by other academics) and awards (e.g. Nobel Prizes or Fields Medals).

TeachingA key role of a university is the nurture of tomorrow's finest minds, inspiring the next generation of potential research academics. Typical indicators in teaching quality assessments are collation of student feedback through national student surveys, further study rate and student faculty ratio.

EmployabilityGraduate employability encompasses more than academic strength, focusing on ‘work-readiness’ - the ability to work effectively in a multi-cultural team, to deliver presentations, to manage people and projects. Common indicators in this area are surveys of employers, graduate employment rates and careers service support.

Internationalisation Here, effective indicators could be the proportion of international students and staff, the numbers of exchange students arriving and departing, the number of nationalities represented in the student body, the number and strength of international partnerships with other universities and the presence of religious facilities.

Facilities University infrastructure is an indicator which enables students to know what to expect from their university experience. Indicators such as sporting, IT, library and medical facilities, as well as the number of students societies are considered within this criterion.

Online/Distance learningThis category looks at various indicators such as student services and technology, track record, student faculty engagement, student interaction, commitment to online and reputation of the university.

Social ResponsibilityEngagement measures how seriously a university takes its obligations to society by investing in the local community as well as in charity work and disaster relief. It also analyses the regional human capital development and environmentally awareness.InnovationInnovation, the output of the universities activities and findings to economy, society and culture, has become increasingly relevant for universities.Arts & Culture

Effective indicators are the number of concerts and exhibitions organized by the institution, the number of credits and cultural awards and cultural investment.

InclusivenessThis area looks at the accessibility of the university to students, particularly at scholarships and bursaries, disability access, gender balance and low-income outreach.

Specialist CriteriaExcellence in a narrow field is as valid a claim to world-class status as competence in the round. These criteria are designed to extend credit where it's due. This category looks at accreditations and discipline rankings.

TopUNIVERSITIES Worldwide university rankings, guides & events

Ranking of universities: the case of Italy

ARWU Shangai (Shangai, Jiao Tong University)QS World University Ranking THE University Ranking (Times Higher Education)US News e World Reports (Best Global Universities)

ARWU Shangai: Bologna 173, Milano 186, Padova 188, Pisa 190, Sapienza 191

QS World University Ranking: Bologna 182, Sapienza 202, Politecnico Milano 229

World University Ranking SA: Sapienza 95, Bologna 99, Pisa 184, Milano 193

US News e World Report: Sapienza 139, Bologna 146, Padova 146, Milano 155

OECD Science, Technology and Industry Outlook, 2008

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Clusters

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As OECD admitted: “Monitoring and benchmarking are not coupled with policy evaluation (…). They are seldom used for evaluation purposes (…) but to analyse [counties’] position vis-à-vis competing countries and to motivate adaptation or more intense policy efforts (…).”

“Official statistics mainly served discourse purposes, and in this sense the accounting framework and the statistics presented within it were influential because they fit perfectly well with the policy discourse on rationality, efficiency and accountability: it aligns and frames the science system, by way of statistics, as goal-oriented and accountable. As it actually is, the accounting in official statistics on science is a metaphor, not an accounting exercise as such”

Use of indicators (Benoit Godin)

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A rhetoric device: a plethora of figures and graphs

“In the various studies on productivity and the New Economy the OECD constantly reminded the reader that the links between science, technology and productivity have not been demonstrated”.

“A large series of graphs and figures could persuade the reader of the seriousness of the study. Although no statistics could be used to prove the emergence of the New Economy, graphs and figures nevertheless served the purpose of empiricism”.

(Godin, 2004)

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The rhetoric of numbers Policy prescriptions based on shaking statistical evidence

(New Economy)The “umbrella” concept, slogans, buzzwords, which shape

new ways to arrange old indicators

Use of indicators (Benoit Godin)

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A rhetoric device: a plethora of figures and graphs

“Secure a quantitative statement of the critical elements in an official’s problem, draw it up in concise form, illuminate the tables with a chart or two, bind the memorandum in an attractive cover tied with a neat bow-knot (…). The data must be simple enough to be sent by telegraph and compiled overnight”

(Mitchell, 1919)

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GERD is used for target setting - from descriptive to prescriptive

“The American GERD/GDP ratio of the early 1960s, that is 3%, as mentioned in the first paragraphs of the first edition of the Frascati Manual, became the ideal to which member countries would aim, and which the OECD would implicitly promote” (Godin)

Lisbona UE 3% (2% business, 1% public sector)

The mystique of ranking

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Keith Pavitt

“One would think that the political agenda determines the collection and analysis of indicators. In reality it is the other way round: it is the availability of indicators which steers the political discourse.”

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Fred Gault

“Policy analysts should be both literate and numerate, able to put a case using innovation indicators. Not only should the analysits have such a skill set, but they also require some knowledge of the subject. It is in this environment that monitoring, benchmarking and evaluation lead to policy learning and to more effective policies.”

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Advising has become the preserve of applied economists (no more physicists and sociologists)

Advisors need to be – and to appear – experts who guarantee a competent and independent approach

The compromise between engagement and integrity of analysts

Frustration of advisors is part of the gameThe paradox: too many or too little indicators?The pressure of vested interests on official statisticians

The policy advisor

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Innovation expenditure. The Oslo Manual

R&D = 55%R&D = 38%

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A dilemma for users

• BERD (Frascati), Annual, all NACE industries, no size threshold

• CIS (Oslo), selected NACE industries, 10 employees or more, sample

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Research Evaluation

Evaluation of what:researcheducation“third mission” of universities and research agencies (consultancy, support to local authorities, etc.)

Evaluation by whom:experts, peers

Evaluation of what:organisations (departments, universities, schools)programmes, projectsindividuals (professors, researchers, students)

Evaluation whenex-antein-itinereex-post

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Research Evaluation

Indicators used

- bibliometrics- R&D- peer review- students- graduates- patents- spin-offs- contracts and other funding- other

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Evaluation in Italy

New public managementAccountabilityValue for money

National Institute for the Evaluation of the Education and Training System

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San Francisco Declaration on Research Assessment

The Journal Impact Factor, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, was originally created as a tool to help librarians identify journals to purchase, not as a measure of the scientific quality of research in an article.

With that in mind, it is critical to understand that the Journal Impact Factor has a number of well-documented deficiencies as a tool for research assessment. These limitations include:

A) citation distributions within journals are highly skewed; B) the properties of the Journal Impact Factor are field-specific: it

is a composite of multiple, highly diverse article types, including primary research papers and reviews;

C) Journal Impact Factors can be manipulated (or “gamed”) by editorial policy; and

D) data used to calculate the Journal Impact Factors are neither transparent nor openly available to the public.

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General RecommendationDo not use journal-based metrics, such as Journal Impact Factors, as a surrogate measure of the quality of individual research articles, to assess an individual scientist’s contributions, or in hiring, promotion, or funding decisions.

San Francisco Declaration on Research Assessment

Evaluation should enhance efficiency and effectivenessEvaluation is a difficult processPeer review vs bibliometricsNSE vs SSHUsed to define financing and hiring/promoting staffLeague tablesPro-active evaluation vs punitive evaluationCompetition vs cooperation of scientistsExcellenceOpportunistic behaviour and the split of the academic communityThreat t othe equilibrium amongst the activities of the universityResearch Assessment Excercise (REF) in the UK

Lessons from research evaluation

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After 50 years STI indicators are quite goodInternational cooperation is key (the role of the OECD and EU)Support to non-OECD countriesFurther develop theoretical models and methodologiesFrom macro to microKeep the dialogue between actors aliveMore expertise: too many economists (philosophers,

sociologists, other social scientists)Too many indicators?Resource constraintsSTI indicators are a public good, and the “owner” of statistics is

the StateThe role of commercial data producers (e.g. bibliometrics)What to do with the misuse of indicators?Producers: stay creative, autonomous, and risk-taking

Concluding remarks

Thank you for your attention

[email protected]

Moscow January 21, 2015 An overview of STI statistics and indicators Giorgio Sirilli ISCrES - CNR.

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Transcript of Moscow January 21, 2015 An overview of STI statistics and indicators Giorgio Sirilli ISCrES - CNR.