Government of Pakistan

Pakistan Meteorological Department

Islamabad

Monthly Weather Report

February 2020

Director General

Pakistan Meteorological Department

Prepared by: National Weather Forecasting Center, Pakistan Meteorological

Department, Islamabad

1

Contents

1. SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................... 3

2. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................... 4

3. FIRST SPELL ............................................................................................................................... 5

4. SECOND SPELL ........................................................................................................................... 7

5. THIRD SPELL .............................................................................................................................. 9

5 FOURTH SPELL ......................................................................................................................... 11

5 ACCUMULATED RAINFALL ...................................................................................................... 13

6. RAINFALL DEPARTURE ............................................................................................................ 13

7. FORECAST VALIDATION ............................................................................................................ 14

8. TEMPERATURE ......................................................................................................................... 16

9. DROUGHT CONDITION .............................................................................................................. 18

10. ACKNOWLEDGMENT ............................................................................................................ 19

11. REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................... 19

ANNEX I ........................................................................................................................................... 20

2

List of Figures Figure 1 Synoptic situation 4th to 7th January 2020. Shaded portion represents the geopotential

height pattern at 500 hPa, solid line represents the geopotential height pattern at 850 hPa, while

arrows indicate 850 hPa winds. ......................................................................................................... 5

Figure 2 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 5th to 8th January 2020. ................................................. 6

Figure 3 Synoptic situation from 11th to 14th January 2020. Shaded portion represents the

geopotential height pattern at 500 hPa, solid line represents the geopotential height pattern at 850

hPa, while arrows indicate 850 hPa winds. ........................................................................................ 7

Figure 4 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 12th to 14th January 2020. ............................................. 8

Figure 5 Synoptic situation from 19th to 22nd January,2020. Shaded portion represents the

geopotential height pattern at 500 hPa, solid line represents the geopotential height pattern at 850

hPa, while arrows indicate 850 hPa winds. ........................................................................................ 9

Figure 6 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 19th to 22nd January,2020. .......................................... 10

Figure 7 Synoptic situation from 24th to 29th January,2020. Shaded portion represents the

geopotential height pattern at 500 hPa, solid line represents the geopotential height pattern at 850

hPa, while arrows indicate 850 hPa winds. ...................................................................................... 11

Figure 8 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 25th to 29th January, 2020 ........................................... 12

Figure 9 Rainfall (mm) distribution during JA. .............................................................................. 13

Figure 10 Rainfall departure in January 2020 ................................................................................ 14

Figure 11 Spatial distribution of rainfall (mm) departure in January 2020 .................................... 14

Figure 12 Temperature comparison between normal and January 2020 minimum temperatures. . 17

Figure 13 Drought outlook during the month of January. .............................................................. 18

List of Tables Table 1: Rainfall Departure............................................................................................................... 4

Table 2 Forecast verification contingency table ............................................................................. 15

Table 3 Percentage accuracy of each spell ...................................................................................... 15

3

1. SUMMARY

1. In February 2020 area weighted rainfall of the country remained below normal by 51%.

2. On regional basis area weighted rainfall was below normal in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by 43%,

Punjab 33%, Azad Jammu and Kashmir 55%, Sindh 96%, Gilgit Baltistan 65%, and in

Balochistan 63%.

3. Foggy conditions were more prolonged in Upper Punjab than other parts of the country.

4. On all Pakistan basis slightly above, normal average minimum temperatures were recorded.

4

2. INTRODUCTION

February is also marked as the 2nd coldest month. In February 2020 lowest minimum temperature

was recorded in Skardu (-20.7℃) on 29th & 30th of February. Highest accumulated precipitation

during the whole month was recorded in Rawalpindi (102 mm). While highest amount of rainfall

during 24 hours was recoded in Murree (45.7 mm) on 29th of February. In February 2020 area

weighted rainfall in the country remained below normal by 51 %. On regional basis rainfall

remained below normal in Sindh by 96%, Punjab 33%, Balochistan 63%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

43%, Azad Jammu & Kashmir 55% and Gilgit Baltistan 65%. The details are given in table 1.

Table 1: Rainfall Departure

5

Four rainy spells entered Pakistan during this month. Their detail is appended below.

3. FIRST SPELL

Synoptic situation during the first spell of February as obtained by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset

(Kalnay 1996) is shown in figure 1. During the first spell a western disturbance is seen that is

affecting western and some upper parts of the country.

Figure 1 Synoptic situation 3rd to 5th February 2020. Shaded portion represents the geopotential

height pattern at 500 hPa, solid line represents the geopotential height pattern at 850 hPa, while

arrows indicate 850 hPa winds.

6

Spatial distribution from 4th to 5th February shows that some western parts of the country receives

sufficient rainfall with light rain in upper parts.

Figure 2 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 4th to 5th February 2020.

7

4. SECOND SPELL

Synoptic situation during the second spell from 11th to 14th February,2020 figure 3. A moderate

western disturbance can be seen in the charts and the moisture is available from Persian Gulf.

Figure 3 Synoptic situation from 11th to 14th February 2020. Shaded portion represents the

geopotential height pattern at 500 hPa, solid line represents the geopotential height pattern at 850

hPa, while arrows indicate 850 hPa winds.

8

Spatial distribution of rainfall from 12th to 14th February 2020 is shown in figure 4. It shows that

Upper parts of Pakistan receive rainfall with moderate to isolated heavy falls in Upper kpk. some

parts of North Balochistan and Kashmir also receive light rainfall.

Figure 4 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 12th to 14th February 2020.

9

5. THIRD SPELL

The synoptic situation during the third spell from 19th to 21st February,2020 is shown in figure 5. A

shallow western disturbance can be seen at the end of this decade.

Figure 5 Synoptic situation from 19th to 21st February,2020. Shaded portion represents the

geopotential height pattern at 500 hPa, solid line represents the geopotential height pattern at 850

hPa, while arrows indicate 850 hPa winds.

10

Figure 6 represents the spatial distribution of rainfall during the Third Spell from 20th to 21st

February,2020. During this most parts of the country remained dry however some upper parts of the

country receive some rainfall as shown.

Figure 6 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 20th to 21st February,2020.

11

5 FOURTH SPELL

The synoptic situation during the Fourth spell from 27th to 29th February,2020 is shown in figure 7.

A shallow western disturbance can be seen in the charts below.

Figure 7 Synoptic situation from 27th to 29th February,2020. Shaded portion represents the

geopotential height pattern at 500 hPa, solid line represents the geopotential height pattern at 850

hPa, while arrows indicate 850 hPa winds.

12

Figure 8 represents the spatial distribution of rainfall during the Fourth Spell from 28th to 29th

February,2020. During this most southern part of the country remained dry however some upper

parts of the country receive significant rainfall as shown.

Figure 8 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 28th to 29th February,2020

13

5 ACCUMULATED RAINFALL

In February the central, western and upper parts of the country receive rainfall. The Upper KP,

Kashmir and Islamabad receive heavy showers while Balochistan and some central parts in the

country receive light to moderate rainfalls. Details of rainfall are appended in annexure I.

Figure 9 Rainfall (mm) distribution during February.

6 RAINFALL DEPARTURE

In February 2020 area weighted rainfall in the country remained below normal by 51 %. On regional

basis rainfall remained below normal in Sindh by 96%, Punjab 33%, Balochistan 63%, Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa 43%, Azad Jammu & Kashmir 55% and Gilgit Baltistan 65% as represented in figure

10. The Figure 11 shows the spatial distribution of rainfall departure in the month of February with

respect to the base period of 1961-2010. The spatial distribution of rainfall departure is shown in

figure 11 (CDPC 2020).

14

Figure 10 Rainfall departure in February 2020

Figure 11 Spatial distribution of rainfall (mm) departure in February 2020

7 FORECAST VALIDATION

An attempt is made to substantiate the accuracy of precipitation forecasts issued in February. This

is done by using the contingency table 1, for each of the three decades. This table is used to find out

the level of agreement between forecast and actual observation. The difference between forecast and

observation is the error. The lower the errors, the greater the accuracy.

15

Table 2 Forecast verification contingency table

Observed

Yes No Total

Fo

reca

st

Yes Hits False Alarms Forecast Yes

No Misses Correct Negatives Forecast No

Total Observed Yes Observed No Total

Hits means when the precipitation was forecasted and it occurred. Miss is used when the

precipitation was not forecasted and it occurred. False alarm means when the precipitation was

forecasted and it did not occur. Correct negatives are when the precipitation was not forecasted and

also it did not happen. Accuracy of forecast is calculated by using formula in equation 1. Table 2

describes the accuracy in each of the spells

𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 = 𝐻𝑖𝑡𝑠 + 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑛𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠/𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 (1)

Table 3 Percentage accuracy of each spell

Rainfall spells Percentage accuracy

First Decade 97.2

Second Decade 95.1

Third Decade 98.2

Average 96.81

8 FOGGY DAYS

A graph representing number of foggy days is shown in figure 12 (FFD 2020). Bahawalpur recorded

maximum twenty-five foggy days in this month. In this month fog was more persistent in south

Punjab as compared to other parts of the country as indicated by figure 15. Some stations from upper

Sindh also reported fog during the period.

16

Figure 12 Number of foggy days in February 2020

9 SNOW

In February not much significant snowfall was reported from the mountainous areas of Pakistan.

However, some significant snowfall stations are shown in figure 13.

Figure 13 Snowfall (ft) in February 2020

17

10 TEMPERATURE

Figure 14 represents the comparison of February 2020 and mean minimum temperatures over the

country. During the month of February slightly above normal minimum temperatures were recorded

in Pakistan.

Figure 14 Temperature comparison between normal and February 2020 minimum temperatures.

Figure 15 Mean temperature anomaly in February w.r.t 1981-2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Pakistan Punjab Kashmir-GB KP Sindh Balochistan

Feb_2020 Normal

Min Temperature comparison

18

11 DROUGHT CONDITION

According to the latest drought analysis done by National Drought Monitoring Center of PMD,

Slightly Wet conditions prevailed over northern parts of the country are represented in figure 16.

Figure 16 Drought outlook during the month of February.

19

12 ACKNOWLEDGMENT

This work is the combined effort of all the forecasting team. Special thanks to Mr. Muhammad

Safdar, Sheeza Khan National Weather Forecasting Center (NWFC), Islamabad. Mr. Nadeem Faisal,

Climate Data Processing Center (CDPC), Karachi. Mr. Ibrar Qureshi, Flood Forecasting Division

(FFD), Lahore. Mr. Nassir Yaseen, National Drought Monitoring Centre (NDMC), Islamabad.

13 REFERENCES

CDPC, Pakistan Meteorological Department. 2019. “Winter Rainfall Update.” 2019.

http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/winter2019_rainfall_update.htm.

Kalnay, E. 1996. “The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77

(3): 437–71. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)0772.0.CO;2.

20

ANNEX I

Accumulative rainfall (mm) in February 2020 and their deviation from the normal rainfall.

Punjab

Stations Feb-20 Normal Deviation

BAHAWALNAGAR 2.01 17.3 -15.3

BAHAWALPUR,CITY 0.01 10 -10

BAHAWALPUR,AIRPORT 0.01 ** **

BHAKKAR 16.5 ** **

CHAKWAL 39.21 ** **

D.G.KHAN 1.01 ** **

FAISALABAD 26.01 19.1 6.9

CHAKLALA AIRBASE 102.33 84.1 18.2

ISLAMABAD,ZEROPOINT 65.53 89 -23.5

ISLAMABAD, AIRPORT 60.81 ** **

JHANG 30.22 ** **

JOHARABAD 7.72 ** **

JHELUM 63.31 56.7 6.6

KASUR 5.01 ** **

KHANPUR 0 7.9 -7.9

KOT ADDU 13.5 ** **

KAMRA 27.03 102.3 -75.3

LAHORE, AIRPORT 15.02 39.3 -24.3

LAHORE,CITY 9.04 35.3 -26.3

LAYYAH 34.41 ** **

MANDIBAHAUDDIN 24.01 ** **

MIANWALI AIRBASE 31.03 40.2 -9.2

MULTAN 9.44 15.5 -6.1

MANGLA 52.31 ** **

MURREE 85.11 166.5 -81.4

NOORPUR THAL 10.2 ** **

OKARA 9.6 ** **

RAHIM YAR KHAN 0.01 ** **

GUJRANWALA 20.21 ** **

GUJRAT 19.2 ** **

SAHIWAL 16.02 ** **

SHORKOT AIRBASE 35.01 ** #VALUE!

SARGODHA AIRBASE 15.03 18.2 -3.2

SARGODHA CITY 14.02 29.8 **

21

SIALKOT CANTT 16.01 49.6 **

SIALKOT AIRPORT 25.81 ** **

T.T. SINGH 25.7 ** **

HAFIZABAD 20.01 ** **

KHANEWAL 14.02 ** **

NAROWAL 27.81 ** **

ATTOCK 34.41 ** **

Gilgit Baltistan & Azad Kashmir

Stations Feb-20 Normal Deviation

ASTORE 15.7 45.8 -30.1

BUNJI 2.2 8.7 -6.5

BAGROTE 10.61 ** **

CHILAS 0.81 16.3 -15.5

G.DOPATTA 64.4 147.6 -83.2

GILGIT 0.02 6.6 -6.6

GUPIS 8.8 14.7 -5.9

KOTLI 40 102.5 -62.5

MUZAFFARABAD AIRPORT 55.01 145.3 -90.3

MUZAFFARABAD CITY 52.52 ** **

RAWALAKOT 55.33 ** **

HUNZA 8.01 ** **

SKARDU 8.92 29.1 -20.2

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Stations Feb-20 Normal Deviation

BALAKOT 62.5 143.3 -80.8

BANNU 24.4 35.6 -11.2

CHERAT 40 72.7 -32.7

CHITRAL 26.61 65.1 -38.5

D.I.KHAN 24.04 21 3

DIR 73.6 176 -102.4

LOWER DIR 39 ** **

DROSH 29.4 72.1 -42.7

KAKUL 55.03 104.4 -49.4

KALAM 78.5 ** **

KOHAT AIRBASE 36.01 50.2 -14.2

MALAMJABBA 60 ** **

MIRKHANI 36.2 ** **

PARACHINAR 61 83.4 -22.4

PESHAWAR AIRBASE 34.04 60.1 -26.1

22

PESHAWAR CITY 35.34 ** **

PATTAN 72 ** **

RISALPUR 28.04 68.2 -40.2

SAIDU SHARIF 32.5 120 -87.5

TAKHT BAI 18.52 ** **

Sindh

Stations Feb-20 Normal Deviation

BADIN 0 6.6 -6.6

CHHOR 0 4.1 -4.1

HYDERABAD 0 6.8 -6.8

JACOBABAD 0 7.3 -7.3

KARACHI A/P 2.6 7.4 -4.8

LARKANA 0.01 5.1 -5.1

MITHI 0 ** **

SH.B.ABAD 0 3.3 -3.3

PADIDAN 0.01 4.3 -4.3

ROHRI 0.01 5.5 -5.5

SUKKUR 0.01 7 -7

M.JO.DARO 0 5.8 -5.8

THATTA 0 ** **

DADU 0.01 ** **

MIRPUR KHAS 0 ** **

TANDO JAM 0 ** **

SAKRAND 0 ** **

Balochistan

Stations Feb-20 Normal Deviation

BARKHAN 22 20.7 1.3

DALBANDIN 5.02 16.7 -11.7

GAWADAR 0 ** **

JIWANI 0 27.7 -27.7

KALAT 3 37.3 -34.3

KHUZDAR 3 28.2 -25.2

LASBELA 3 11.7 -8.7

NOKKUNDI 0.3 9.7 -9.4

PANJGUR 1 16 -15

PASNI 0 18.9 -18.9

QUETTA. (SH MANDA) 23.01 ** **

QUETTA. (SAMUNGLI) 46.03 53.3 -7.3

SIBBI 5.01 16.7 -11.7

TURBAT 23.6 22.1 1.5

23

ORMARA 0 12.9 -12.9

ZHOB 24 27.3 -3.3