Monthly Demographic Now Cast. Monthly estimates of migration flows in Spain

Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14-16 April 2010,Geneva

Monthly Demographic Now Cast.

Monthly estimates ofmigration flows in Spain


Population statistics in Spain before 2005

Vital events questionnaires

Vital Statistics

Demographics Indicators

& Mortality Tables

Long Term Population Projections

Demographic Census 2001

Population register“Padrón” Migration Statistics

Intercensal Population Estimates


Lack of information about the current situation of vital events and migrations

Flujo de inmigración anual por nacionalidad

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Año

Pers

on

as

Extranjeros Españoles Total

Annual inmigration flow by citizenship

Foreigners Spanish

Peo

ple

Year


More demands on demographic information

• More data: detailed population stocks and demographic flows (citizenship, country of birth, flows by origin and destination), causal analysis, etc.

• More sub-populations : foreign population/population born abroad, with the same breakdowns as for the total population.

• More frequency: the stronger the intensitiy of phenomena the more frequent the data dissemination on it should be.

• More geographical breakdowns.

• More coherence ( between geographical levels, between flows and stocks).


Population statistics in Spain after 2005

Vital events questionnaires

Padrón: Population register

Monthly Demographic

Now Cast

Vital Statistics

Demographics Indicators& Mortality Tables

Migration Statistics

Population Now Cast

Short and Long Term Population Projections


Monthly Demographic Now Cast : objectives

Reducing the time to disseminate data provided for traditional sources in order to:

Knowing current demographic data to develope Population Now Cast and projections.

Providing figures to cover increasing demands on data about current demographic evolution.


Monthly Demographic Now Cast : products

1) Monthly estimation of demographic events: births, deaths and migration flows.

2) Regional breakdowns (Nuts 3) and breakdowns for basic demographic variables (sex, age, citizenship).

3) Monthly update of main demographic indicators.


Monthly Demographic Now Cast on migrations: information circuit

Monthly account

of variations

INEVariations in the population register

Variations in the population register

Exp

andi

ng a

nd

mod

ellin

g

Monthly Demographic

Now Cast

Municipalities

Expanding and

modelling

Auxiliary

sources


Monthly estimates of

migration flow: methodology

1. Monthly external immigration flow

2. Monthly external emigration flow

1. Emigration flows to abroad declared in the Padrón.2. Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón

through actions carried out directly by the municipalities.3. Emigration flows to abroad of non EU citizen without permanent

resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure.4. Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups

(variations non registered in the Padrón).5. Emigration flows of non EU citizen with permanent resident permit

not included in previous groups (variations non registered in the Padrón).

3. Monthly internal migration flows


1.- Monthly external immigration flow

• The amount of events that happened in month m, year a is unknown– Example January 2010

• The amount of register variations received in INE in month m+x, year a that happened in month m and year a– Example: in February 2010, 22.362 variations were received that

happened in January 2010

• The amount of events that happened and that were received in the previous year – Example in January 2009 finally happened 33.505 variations and in

February of 2009 only 31.233 of these had been received in INE

• The expanding coefficient – Example 33505/31.233=1,0727

• The final estimation of variations in month m, year a (January 2010) – Example 22362*1,0727= 23.989


1.- Monthly external immigration flow: accuracy and robustness

•Flujo de inmigración exterior mensual

01000020000300004000050000600007000080000

Janu

ary-

08

Febru

ary-

08

Mar

ch-0

8

April-0

8

May

-08

June

-08

July-

08

Augus

t08

Septe

mbe

r-08

Octobe

r-08

Novem

ber-0

8

Dicem

ber-0

8

Janu

ary-

09

Febru

ary-

09

Mar

ch-0

9

Estimation april 2009 Registered

Monthly external immigration flow


2.-Monthly external emigration flow

2.1.-Emigration flows declared in the Padrón.

Same procedure presented previously



2.2.- Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities.

– Exact date of the departure is unknown,

• imputation is based on an uniform distribution of the emigration time between his last movement registered in the Padrón central database (which confirms the stay in the country) and the date of the ex oficio deregistration.

– Then, same procedure previously presented


2.2.- Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through

actions carried out directly by the municipalities.



2.3.- Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure.

• Foreigners that don´t have a permanent residence permit have to re-register themselves in the Padrón every two years.

• Eu citizens and non-EU citizens with permanent resident permits are not concerned by this regulation.



2.3.- Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure.

• Four steps– Estimation of the number of records that are going to expire in the following 24

months (these would be situations that affect variations that happened in the past)

– Estimating which of the records that are going to expire in the following 24 months will be finally confirmed

• The average percentage of confirmed exits over the total expired registrations in past months with almost definitive results of the expiry procedure is used as estimator.

– Now we need to estimate the real emigration date of estimated exits.

– Finally, a smoothing procedure is made over the resulting shape of the time distribution


2.3.- Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered

in the Padrón through expiry procedure.



2.4.- Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups (non registered in the Padrón).

• The estimated percentage of EU citizens migrating abroad time after their arrival is got from a survey

• The migration calendar of UE citizens are estimated trough the smoothed distribution of emigration date respect to the time of residence in Spain.

• The estimated percentage of UE citizens migrating abroad and the estimated calendar of emigration give the monthly emigration flow of UE citizens not registered by Municipalities.


2.4.- Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups (non registered in

the Padrón).


2.- Monthly external emigration flow

2.5.- Emigration flows of non EU citizen with permanent resident permit not included in previous groups (non registered in the Padrón).

Same procedure than the previous one


3.- Monthly internal migration flows

Same procedure used in inmigration flows (expanding coefficient)


Now, we have improved the timeliness


Some final conclusions

• Monthly Demographic Now Cast comes to provide advanced and accurate estimates of monthly demographic events, few time after the reference date (only one month, in case of migrations).

• Work to be done:– Do we select properly the type of variations in Padrón

that represent migrations?

– Are any of this type of variations under or over represented in our register? And if yes, in a different way in wich we do things?


Thank you very much for your attention!

Miguel Ángel Martínez VidalPopulation Statistics Directorate

Instituto Nacional de Estadí[email protected]

Monthly Demographic Now Cast. Monthly estimates of migration flows in Spain

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