Monitoring and Modeling Land- Use Change in the Pearl River Delta, China, Using Satellite Imagery...
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Transcript of Monitoring and Modeling Land- Use Change in the Pearl River Delta, China, Using Satellite Imagery...
Monitoring and Modeling Monitoring and Modeling
Land-Use Change in the Land-Use Change in the
Pearl River Delta, China, Pearl River Delta, China,
Using Satellite Imagery and Using Satellite Imagery and
Socioeconomic DataSocioeconomic DataRobert K. Kaufmann
Harvard University
January 29, 2003
http://www.bu.edu/cees/readmoreRK.html
Modeling and Forecasting Effects of Land-Use Modeling and Forecasting Effects of Land-Use Change in China Based on Socioeconomic DriversChange in China Based on Socioeconomic Drivers
Boston University
Department of Geography
Principal Investigator: Robert K. Kaufmann
Co-Investigators: Curtis E. Woodcock
Dennis G. Dye
Karen C. Seto
Chinese Collaborators: Lu Jinfa, Institute of Geography CAS
Li Xiaowen, IRSA
Wang Tongsan, Economic Forecasting Center
Huang Xiuhua, IRSA
Liang Youcai, State Information Center
Funded by NASA LCLUC-NAG5-6214
Why Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province?Why Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province?
• 1988 - 1996 real GDP growth: 350-550%
• Major agricultural region and national leader in production of: lychees, bananas, pond fish, sugar cane
• Special Economic Zones
• Geographic proximity to Hong Kong
• Cultural ties to overseas Chinese investors
China
Study Area: Pearl River Delta
30 December 1995 TM 432
12
3
10 December 1988 TM 432 3 March 1996 TM 432
Land-Use Change Map
waternatural vegetationagricultureurbannatural to urbanagriculture to urban
5 km
10 December 1988 TM 432 3 March 1996 TM 432 Land-Use Change Map
waternatural vegetation
agricultureurban
water to ag ag to urbannatural to urban5 km
10 December 1988 TM 432 3 March 1996 TM 432
Land-Use Change Map
waternatural vegetationagricultureurban
natural to urbanagriculture to urban
5 km
agriculture to water
Official Estimates vs. Official Estimates vs. Satellite-Derived EstimatesSatellite-Derived Estimates
of Agricultural Land of Agricultural Land
Seto, K.C., R.K. Kaufmann, and C.E. Woodcock. 2000. Agricultural land conversion in southern China. Nature 406: 121.
Land Use and Land Use Change:Land Use and Land Use Change:1988 -19961988 -1996
Made in conjunction with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
QuickTime™ and aCinepak decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
350 - 550%
200 - 300%
100 - 190%
1988 - 1996 Real GDP Growth
25 km
1988 - 1996 Percent Land-Use Change of Counties
High: 17 - 23%
Medium: 14 - 15%
Low: 0 - 9%
25 km
Modeling Socioeconomic Drivers of LUCModeling Socioeconomic Drivers of LUC
Yit = i + ixit + it i = 1,…, Nt = 1,…, T
• Dependent variables:- agricultureurban- natural vegetation/waterurban
• Examples of independent variables:- GDP- Demography (m/f/rural/urban)- Gross output value in industry & agriculture- Wages by sector
Agriculture to Urban = -0.11 [-5.0]
+ 1.50 *Relative land productivity [1.97]
- 3.97 *Ag labor productivity [-4.58]
+ 1.24 *Investment in capital construction [2.74]
+ 0.03 *Average wage [5.98]
Natural to Urban = 0.028 [3.13]
+ 6.53*Relative land productivity [3.55]
- 1.39 *Relative labor productivity [-3.37]
+ 2.85*Investment in capital construction [3.27]
Drivers of Land-Use ChangeDrivers of Land-Use Change
Seto, K.C. and R.K. Kaufmann, In press, Modeling the drivers of urban land-use change in the Pearl River Delta, China: Integrating remote sensing with socioeconomic data. Land Economics
Evaluation of ResultsEvaluation of Results
* Panel cointegration--variables share the stochastic trend
* Hendry forecast test--Regression results stable overspace and time
* Moran’s I--No spatial autocorrelation* Granger causality--Some evidence that RHS
variables “Granger cause” land use changeno evidence for opposite effect
ResultsResults
• Successful mapping of land-use change with high accuracy (93.5%)
• Amount of developed land has increase by 319% between 1988 and 1996
• Developed new method to evaluate change in series of images using time series techniques
• Identified and quantified major drivers of urbanization