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Monitoring a changing climate: An overview for State Wildlife Planners Jonathan Mawdsley The Heinz...
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Transcript of Monitoring a changing climate: An overview for State Wildlife Planners Jonathan Mawdsley The Heinz...
Monitoring a changing climate: An overview for State Wildlife Planners
Jonathan MawdsleyThe Heinz Center
Why Monitor Climate Change?• Tells you what is happening on the ground• Provides data for testing model projections• Provides data for additional modeling• Provides feedback on effectiveness of your
conservation actions• Allows course corrections to your
management activities
Questions Monitoring Can Answer
• How is the climate actually changing?• How is climate change affecting the
biophysical environment?• How is climate change affecting species and
ecosystems?• How effective are our climate-change
mitigation and adaptation activities?
Monitoring Climate Change
Elements of a monitoring program:• Direct measures of climate change• Secondary effects of climate change• Ecological effects of climate change• Effectiveness monitoring of mitigation and
adaptation activities
Good News!• Many existing monitoring programs• Much data already available• Synthetic studies of data published– Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change– U. S. Global Change Research Program– National Climate Assessment
• Translational products available on Web, some even user-friendly!
Direct MeasuresMeteorological measures– Temperature, precipitation, weather events, storm
frequency…
Records maintained and synthesized by:– National Climatic Data Center (NOAA)
• www.ncdc.noaa.gov
– Regional Climate CentersRecommend working with local meteorologists (local
university) to obtain and interpret data
Secondary Effects of Climate Change• Sea Level Rise
– NOAA Tides and Currents, Sea Level Rise Viewer• Fire frequency, intensity
– Forest Service Remote Sensing Applications CenterLANDFIRE
• Floods– USGS Floods and Droughts– FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer
• Droughts– USGS Floods and Droughts– National Drought Monitor (USDA, NOAA)
• Extreme Storm Events – National Climatic Data Center
Ecological Effects• Changes in phenology– USA National Phenology Network, Nature’s Notebook– Extensive literature on phenological shifts
• Changes in distribution– 2012 analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data– Many reports in literature
• Changes in population size/extent– Again, Breeding Bird Survey analyses– Increasing number of reports in literature
Monitoring SpeciesDifferent approaches:• Identify species that are of interest to
management authorities, determine areas of vulnerability, and monitor those
• Identify species at greatest risk from climate change and monitor changes in those species
• Depends on the management approach of your department/agency
Climate Change and Western Lands• Workshops in four states (AZ,
NV, UT, WY)• Identify conservation targets
for management• Identify threats, stressors,
conservation actions• Develop conceptual model • Identify key rates, states,
processes for monitoring• Identify existing monitoring
programs that provide relevant data
• Establish priorities for new data collection
• Strategic planning effort paralleling State Wildlife Plan
• Identified focal species of cultural, ecological, economic importance
• For focal species, identify movement corridors, refugia
• Manage habitat along corridors to promote connections
• Judicious translocations to suitable future habitats
• Monitor habitat, population responses
Helping Desert Bighorns Adapt
What you monitor depends on what you are trying to accomplish with your management activities
Many proposed measures are straightforward:• Mitigation: plant trees; measure tree growth and carbon
uptake• Mitigation: protect forest lands; measure carbon
sequestered in forest & not released to atmosphere• Adaptation: restore corridors; measure wildlife movements
along restored corridors• Adaptation: species translocation; measure survival and
recruitment at new site(s)
Effectiveness Measures
Take-home Messages
• You can incorporate climate monitoring information into your State Wildlife Plan
• Climate monitoring programs, data already available
• Many of our existing monitoring programs can yield data about climate change and its effects on wildlife and ecosystems