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MOFEP Data to Adds to Other Studies -- Coarse Woody Debris Estimation -- Landscape-scale Forest Planning -- Cavity Tree Estimation orth entral Research Station Stephen R. Shifley Zaofei Fan Frank R. Thompson III William Dijak David R. Larsen Josh Millspaugh Michael Larson Martin Spetich John Kabrick Randy Jensen Brian Brookshire, Laura Brookshire Slide 2 Slide 3 Slide 4 Slide 5 Harvest Patterns Year 10 Even-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 6 Harvest Patterns Year 20 Even-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 7 Harvest Patterns Year 30 Even-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 8 Harvest Patterns Year 40 Even-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 9 Harvest Patterns Year 50 Even-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 10 Harvest Patterns Year 60 Even-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 11 Harvest Patterns Year 70 Even-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 12 Harvest Patterns Year 80 Even-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 13 Harvest Patterns Year 90 Even-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 14 Harvest Patterns Year 100 Even-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 15 Wind and Weather Disturbance Wind/weather disturbances creating crown openings affecting 0.1 to 2.5 ha per event have a return interval of approximately 670 years Tornados are a factor, but one we could not simulate spatially with LANDIS Slide 16 Fires once were common -- Every 5-10 years in 1800s With active suppression the mean fire return interval is now about 300 years. -- Crown fires are rare -- Prescribed fires can be simulated Slide 17 Initial Age Classes MOFEP sites 7 and 8 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 18 Age Classes after 10-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Even-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 19 Age Classes after 20-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Even-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 20 Age Classes after 40-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Even-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 21 Age Classes after 60-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Even-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 22 Age Classes after 80-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Even-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 23 Age Classes after 100-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Even-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 24 Initial Age Classes MOFEP sites 7 and 8 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 25 Initial Age Classes MOFEP sites 7 and 8 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 26 Age Classes after 10-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Uneven-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 27 Age Classes after 20-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Uneven-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 28 Age Classes after 40-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Uneven-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 29 Age Classes after 60-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Uneven-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 30 Age Classes after 80-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Uneven-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 31 Age Classes after 100-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Uneven-aged harvesting 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 32 Age Classes after 20-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 100-year simulation No harvest 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 33 Age Classes after 40-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 100-year simulation No harvest 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 34 Age Classes after 60-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 100-year simulation No harvest 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 35 Age Classes after 80-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 100-year simulation No harvest 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 36 Age Classes after 100-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 100-year simulation No harvest 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs Slide 37 Age Classes after 100-year simulation MOFEP sites 7 and 8 0- 29 yrs 30- 59 yrs 60- 89 yrs 90-119 yrs 120-149 yrs 150-179 yrs > 180 yrs EAM UAM No Harvest Slide 38 Tree size classes - year 100 No Harv. Even 10% Uneven 5% 5 km Slide 39 Ovenbird Late successional Edge sensitive Slide 40 Tree age & Landtype Pine Edge Ovenbird Habitat Model 0.25 km Slide 41 Ovenbird Habitat Suitability No harvest Even-age 10% Year 50 Year 200 Slide 42 Black bear habitat Fall food Hard mast Summer food Soft mast (tree age & land type) Interspersion of food types Circular moving window Road density Auxiliary map photo courtesy of Elaine Bindler Slide 43 Black Bear Habitat Suitability 4 km wide Slide 44 Habitat model links Ovenbird Prairie warbler Hooded warbler Pine warbler Wild turkey Ruffed grouse Gray squirrel Black bear Bobcat Red bat Northern bat Redback salamander Slide 45 Could we create a working hypothesis of MOFEP change over the life of the experiment? Vegetation pattern Woody species composition Volume CWD Cavities Wildlife habitat Slide 46 Cavity tree estimation at multiple spatial scales Tree level Stand level Landscape level Slide 47 Probability of cavity trees Tree level Live, dead Dbh Species group Decay class if dead Stand level Landscape level Slide 48 Probability of cavity trees Tree level Stand level Stand age class Dbh class probability distribution Landscape level Slide 49 Slide 50 Slide 51 Probability of cavity trees Tree level Stand level Landscape level Acres by age class Seed/sap, pole, sawtimber, old-growth Slide 52 Slide 53 Initial efforts were in the SE Missouri Ozarks Developed Agricultural Deciduous Coniferous Mixed Forested Wetland Water Barren N ^ Land use classification, southeast Missouri Ellington Bunker Eminence Clearwater Lake 5,040 sq.. km 80 km 63 km Slide 54 Goal: Develop A Landscape Model Simulates the impact of various disturbances on forests. Predicts the composite impacts (in aggregate) on a landscape composed of numerous forest stands. Predicts/contrasts changes in ecosystem attributes that result from alternative disturbance regimes. 1995 2025 2055 Slide 55 Our Basic Modeling Assumptions Vegetation change is relentless. Vegetation is constantly responding to (recovering from) disturbance. To some degree (and to a greater degree than most other ecosystem components), patterns of vegetation change are predictable. The landscape can be divided into ecologically similar units (ECS). If we know (or can predict) the vegetation conditions across a landscape at some future point in time, we can say significant things about other ecosystem components. Requires a team effort. Slide 56 This work utilizes the LANDIS model Generic framework for simulating landscape change in response to disturbance Handles all the basic bookkeeping and mapping Scaleable pixel size (0.1 ha) Tracks presence/absence of tree species by age and location High degree of stochastic variation Simulates stochastic fire events Simulates stochastic wind events Newly completed harvest simulator Can be calibrated for different forest conditions Slide 57 Calibration Process for LANDIS Identify Land Units Calibrate species reproduction and survival dynamics based on life history characteristics Longevity, shade tolerance, fire tolerance, dominance Sprouting, age to sexual maturity, seed dispersal Calibrate wind and fire disturbance Simulates stochastic fire events that differ by ELT Simulates stochastic wind events that differ by ELT Slide 58 Required Input Maps (raster) Land units Initial vegetation cover and age class Additional maps required to simulate harvest Management areas Stand boundaries Slide 59 Harvest Scenarios Even-aged management Clearcut 10% of stands each decade Oldest first No adjacency constraints Fire and wind disturbance turned on Uneven-aged management Group openings averaging 0.2 ha (2 pixels) Harvest 8% of area in each stand each decade No adjacency constraints Fire and wind disturbance turned on No Harvest Fire and wind disturbance turned on Slide 60 Wind and Fire Disturbance Slide 61 WindFire Mean return interval 800 yrs300 yrs Mean Size 1 ha 8 ha Minimum size 0.1 ha 0.1 ha Maximum Size 20 ha 600 ha Severity N/ALow-Med Slide 62 Output Maps for Each Decade of Simulation Vegetation cover Vegetation age class Fire damage Wind damage Type and location of harvest Slide 63 Strengths of This Approach Provides the big picture. Great tool to view large scale forest change Compare management alternatives visually Analyze projected landscape characteristics Compare landscape statistics among alternatives Assess change over time Make linkages to other resources Slide 64 Limitations Not suitable for site-specific planning Probabilistic model (+/-) Requires GIS capability Big effort to learn to use it Requires maps of land units and stands for most harvest simulations Needs lots of computing horsepower for big landscapes Slide 65 LANDIS Representation of a Site (pixel) Species 10 year age classes 1 = present, 0 = absent maple 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 shortleaf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 black oak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 white oak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Slide 66 Number of Snags by Dbh Class Slide 67 Down Wood Volume Volume (cu.m/ha) Slide 68 Down Wood Size Distribution Slide 69 Dbh Distribution by Species 218610142226 218610142226 60 40 20 Dbh (inches) Shortleaf Pine Red Oak White Oak Big Spring MOFEP % Slide 70 Harvest Patterns Year 10 Uneven-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 71 Harvest Patterns Year 20 Uneven-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 72 Harvest Patterns Year 30 Uneven-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 73 Harvest Patterns Year 40 Uneven-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 74 Harvest Patterns Year 50 Uneven-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 75 Harvest Patterns Year 60 Uneven-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 76 Harvest Patterns Year 70 Uneven-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 77 Harvest Patterns Year 80 Uneven-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 78 Harvest Patterns Year 90 Uneven-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8 Slide 79 Harvest Patterns Year 100 Uneven-aged harvesting MOFEP sites 7 and 8