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Booz & Company

This document is confidential and is intended solely for

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Growth in the RecessionChallenges and Opportunities for the Telecom Sector

Beirut, April 16, 200 Conference !resentation


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Booz & Company

16 April 2002

%

"atin America

North Africa

Gulf

#10

$%1

$astern $urope

Asia &Australasia

Comparative Growth Rates'eal #(! Chan)e p.a. *+

The world is experiencing a far-reaching recession

-ote #ulf includes #CC countries and /emen


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However, emerging markets, including the MiddleEast, continue to promise sustained economic growth

2009 2010

Old Forecast New Forecast Old Forecast New Forecast

orld Output 2.2 0. . .0

Adva!ced "co!omies 0. 2.0 1.6 1.1

"mer#i!# a!d $evelopi!# "co!omies .1 . 6.2 .0

Africa 3. .3 .3 3.

Central and $astern $urope 2.2 0.3 . 2.

C45 .2 0.3 3. 2.2

Developing Asia .1 . .0 6.

Middle East .3 . . 3.

7estern 8emisphere 2. 1.1 3.0 .0

G$ Growth roectio!s' 2009(2010+

-ote 9Ad:anced $conomies; includes %5, $uro Area, ther Ad:anced $conomies

9(e:elopin) Asia; includes China, 4ndia and the fi:e A5$A- countries

97estern 8emisphere; includes Brazil and ?e@ico

5ource 7orld $conomic >utloo %pdate,


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Telecom services growth has proven resilient ineconomic downturns, especially in growing emergingmarkets

Glo)al *elecom +ervice Reve!ues*1 200 *%5( Billion

11 20001 2002001 2002

2001 dow!tur!

5ource 4T%

$ssential ser:ice for users

'elati:ely small percenta)e

of disposale income

$eveloped

,ar-ets

"mer#i!#

,ar-ets

-ascent maret sta)e with

continued e@ponential )rowth

momentum

Co:era)e e@pansion in

under penetrated re)ions

*elecom Resilie!ce $rivers


5/18Booz & Company

16 April 200

as telecom services are !ecoming essential forconsumers

5ource Business 7ee, Booz & Company 5ur:ey 200, Booz & Company analysis

8ousehold )oods

$lectronics

$ntertainment

Tra:el

"u@ury )oods

$ssential Basics

Clothin)

Ratio!ale a!d "vide!ce

oice remains an essential ser:ice

Broadand access is increasin)ly

ecomin) important for consumers

D $.). $uropean Commission is

considerin) a uni:ersal ser:ice

oli)ation *%5> on roadandaccess

Telecommunications ser:icesecome more critical durin) a

recessionsE e.).

D "ess tra:el and facetoface

meetin)s

D "ess social acti:ities leadin) to

more calls and home

entertainment *4!T, internetrowsin), etc.

".pected Cut i! Co!sumer +pe!di!# duri!#

a! "co!omic $ow!tur!*200 *+


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16 April 2006

Telecom plays a key role in ena!ling other sectorsand is thus important for driving overall G"# growthduring this recession

+ector Applicatio!s ( ".amples

/ealthcare

Telemedicine 8ealth ser:ices research >nline monitorin)

Gover!me!t

e!ulic ser:ices -ational acone 4CT

infrastructure

Aviatio!

Ticetin) systems 'outin) systems Aerospace research

o#istics

'F4( and -FC apps Broadcastin) "o)istics 4T applications

"ducatio!

e"earnin) irtual uni:ersity Content mana)ement

$efe!se

5imulation systems 'emote intel )atherin) #!5

*elecom !dustr "!a)li!# Role Co!tri)utio!s to G$ GrowthA:era)e Annual #rowth in +, 12006

Australia#ermany Canada


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Governments see the national !road!andinfrastructure and a key driver for growth out of therecession

Natio!al 3road)a!d Networ-s ( Gover!me!t !vestme!ts

[We] need action and action now. That is why I have ased !y econo!ic tea!

to develop an econo!ic recovery plan" that will help save or create at least two

and a half !illion #o$s% while re$&ilding o&r infrastr&ct&re" As we renew o&r

schools and highways% we'll also renew o&r infor!ation s&perhighway" $eca&se

that's how we'll strengthen A!erica's co!petitiveness in the world.(

When we tal a$o&t the roads and the $ridges and the railways that were $&ilt in

previo&s ti!es ) and those were anti)recession !eas&res taen to help people thro&gh

diffic&lt ti!es ) yo& co&ld [$y co!parison] tal a$o&t the digital infrastr&ct&re and that

for! of co!!&nications revol&tion at a period when we want to sti!&late the econo!y.

It*s a very i!portant thing;

Ratio!ale

!olicymaers in the %5,

%=, =orea, #ermany,

5pain, and !ortu)al are

looin) at channelin)in:estments in -e@t

#eneration Broadand

-etwors to

D create new Gos

D support new usinesses

D stimulate in:estment

3arac- O)ama'

Radio Address o! the "co!om14

Gordo! 3row!'

*he O)server !terview24

1 httpIIchan)e.)o:InewsroomIentryItheJeyJpartsJofJtheJGosJplanI

2 httpIIwww.)uardian.co.uIpoliticsI200IGanI03I)ordonrownemploymentnewdeal


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Booz & Company

16 April 200

However, Government ownership in nationalincum!ents may create ine$ciencies in operations

K perator Annual 'eports

Gover!me!t Ow!ership ( mpact

mpact of Ow!ership o!

"fficie!c 520064

Other

$rivers

As the telecom sector de:elops, there is a lower need for the

)o:ernment to remain directly in:ol:ed

Chan)in) demo)raphic structure dri:e )o:ernments to free up funds to

in:est in social welfare proGects

'educin) ownership increases pri:ate in:estment attracti:eness

'educin) ownership eases pressure international trade commitments

Re#io!al !cum)e!ts 520074


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ME%& telecom li!erali'ation has led to a rapidincrease in the num!er of operators, particularly inthe mo!ile sector

Num)er of ,o)ile Operators i! the ,"NA Re#io!*2000 200

200200220012000 200 2003 200 2006 200

5ource #loal 4nsi)ht, Booz & Company analysis


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Booz & Company

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resulting in strong market growth

,"NA *elecom +u)scri)ers*?illion *2003 200

82%

?oile

Fi@ed

Broadand

200

22.0

+

21+

200

21.2

6+

23+

2006

16.

1+

2+

200

12.

63+

+

2003

.3

+

3+

-ote Telecom re:enues are estimates

5ource 4nforma, #loal 4nsi)ht, Booz & Company analysis

,"NA *elecom Reve!ues*%5( Billion *2003 200

816%

20020020062002003

,"NA *elecom ,ar-et Overview


11/18


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16 April 20012

Market level competition is intensifying in mostmarkets, !ut lags in others

Competitive Activit of +u)(Re#io!al Clusters i! the ,"NA Re#io!*200

5ource 4nforma, Booz & Company analysis

< 3 Mobile Players 3 Mobile Players > 3 Mobile PlayersLegend:


13/18


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This is leading to the emergence of true glo!alplayers in the ME%& region

Num)er of ,"NA *elecom +ervice roviders ) Class

$escriptio! Typically partof lar)e

7estern

$uropean)roup

?ainly state

owned

operators that

ha:e note@panded their

footprint

$mer)in) )loal

telecoms with

assets spannin)

multiple clusters

>perators with

se:eral assets

within the

?$-A re)ion

>perators with

one telecom

asset

>perators that

donLt own

physical

networ

,@NO "mer#i!#

Glo)al

Operators

ocal

!cum)e!ts

".patriate

Operators

3

Re#io!al

Operators

2

5ource #loal 4nsi)ht, Booz & Company analysis

Niche

Operators


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16 April 2001

,"NA ,ar-et +hare 3 +ervice rovider Class*+ *200

)essons from advanced markets indicate that localincum!ents tend to disappear in time andglo!al*regional players dominate

"urope ,ar-et +hare ) +ervice rovider Class*+ *200

?->

2+

-iche

'e)ional

1+

#loal

+

0+

-iche

2+"ocal

4ncument

'e)ional +

#loal

1+

?->

5ource #loal 4nsi)ht, ?errill "ynch ?atri@, Booz & Company analysis

,"NA a!d "urope +u)scri)er ,ar-et +hare ) Class


16/18


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Booz & Company

16 April 2001

.n summary

The telecom sector is less :ulnerale to the )loal recession than other sectors

The sector is seen as a dri:er of the economy and therefore policy maers are dri:in) in:estments

and reform more than e:er efore

D 5upport roadand infrastructure deployment

D $ncoura)e in:estments

D 'educe #o:ernment ownership while increasin) )o:ernment support

The re)ion continues to e@perience )rowth as lieralization ad:ances, howe:er la)s ehind in

some countries where lieralization is necessary

7e will see sin)le maret operators ein) suGect to failure as )loalization pcs up pace

D Bein) part of a )loal or re)ional )roup is a must for lon) term success

The )ap etween the ?iddle $ast re)ion and $urope is narrowin), howe:er some countries need

to play si)nificant catch up in order to reach this le:el

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