Mobile Terminal OS Competition

Ville Lehtonen, 49515B

Scope and agenda

The Market in general The Operating Systems

Symbian Windows Mobile Palm OS Linux (Montavista)

Other Stakeholders Brand Conclusions

Mobile Operating Systems

Mobile phone performance has increased drastically in the last 5 years Color screens Cameras Up to 80 Mt of memory

The need for a real operating system is obvious Marketplace is too big for any major player to ignore Considerable synergy with other systems

PC, consoles

The current market status

PDAs were still the bigger market in 2003, but smart phones will probably beat them in 2004 PDA sales roughly 10 million a year

5.3% to 17.9% drop in PDA sales in 2003, depending on source 60% Symbian, 22% Palm OS and 6,6% Windows in April 2003

(ARC Group, 2003) The potential is immense

1.29 billion mobile phone users in September 2003 100 million data users in Sept 2003

Mostly in Korea and Japan Number of smart phones estimated to reach 45 million by 2007

(ARC Group, 2003)

Symbian Founded by Nokia, Ericsson,

Motorola, Panasonic and Psion However Nokia now owns

63,3% of Symbian Designed for mobile systems

Small memory footprint Minimal battery consumption Minimal hardware

requirements Over 10 million phones using

symbian sold by 2003 Massive industry support 2,090,000 google hits

Windows Mobile Windows CE name evolution

Windows Smartphone Pocket PC Windows Mobile 2003

Dominant in the PC industry Does not manage power as

well as Symbian or Linux Significant industry support

Compaq, Dell and Motorola 3,230,000 google hits

Used “Windows CE”

Palm OS PalmSource, Inc

PalmOne makes hardware Overall market leader in PDA /

Smart phone OS Over 30 million sold 20 000 software titles

Expanded to the smart phone market with the Treo product line Product of Handspring, which

Palm bought Had a 22% share of the market

in early 2003 Has most likely gone down

3,550,000 google hits

Linux based Operating Systems Montavista Linux CEE by

Montavista software is the most serious entrant

Open Source Low Industry support

Most of it is coming from the far east

Motorola balancing between Windows and Linux

Boasts dynamic power managements But not much else

Has lost the price advantage 113,000 google hits

The Hardware Industry

Mobile phone producers behind Symbian Nokia, SonyEricsson, Panasonic, Motorola, Samsung,

Lenovo (China), Siemens, NEC, Toshiba

Palm OS Samsung, Sony, PalmOne, Foundertech, Kyocera, Lenovo

Windows Mobile Compaq, Motorola, Samsung, Philips, Fujitsu, Orange

Linux Motorola, Nexterm, ELT, Samsung, Sony, Panasonic,

Philips, NEC, Toshiba

Software producers Software makers can make

or break OSs Has been seen before All the systems are open

Windows software dominates the market Linux presence negligible Palm even worse Symbian nonexistant

Convergence will favor the incumbent Microsoft Switching costs are already

lowest when using Windows Mobile

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

MacOS MacOS /Windows

Windows Linux /Windows

Linux PDA

Top 100 titles

Amazon software sales

Europe

USA

The Gaming Industry Significance to OSs

experienced on the PC side I-Mode proof that it works in

mobiles as well Games a huge market in their

own right A three way struggle with linux

sitting on the sidelines Massive competition for MMO

games for all systems Palm participates by emulating

Nintendo Will Sony support Symbian?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Sony Microsoft Nintendo

Top 100 titles

Amazon game sales

Europe

USA

Presence Services and Finances

Presence services and digital identity growing Verified by Visa Microsoft Passport

Instant messaging, E-mail on the side Liberty Alliance

Symbian shareholders with Sun, Intel and others Getting users is the key Who will benefit from the convergence?

Credit Card companies, Banks, OS creators, Mobile phone producers, Instant messengers, ISPs?

Will all even survive the process?

Telco’s and ISPs

Microsoft control of mobiles might allow it control of the VoIP market How will the Telco’s react?

Billing becomes increasingly difficult Microsoft or Nokia ambitions in the presence

services troubling Telco’s and ISPs lose a lot of potential revenue

NTT Docomo, Sprint, Nextel, TeliaSonera among the Telco’s in Liberty Alliance

AOL, Jabber from the internet side What is left for Telco’s and ISPs?

Governments

Digital citizenship for payment purposes allows effective taxation by companies What’s new? Banks have done this before Might grow to involve all commerce

Which makes it bigger than banking Winner-takes-it-all seems unlikely to be allowed

Personal information becoming a commercial product Not new, but might grow to new dimensions To what degree will the government allow it?

Brand

Differences in the Operating Systems relatively small The mass market will be won or lost on an emotional level

Microsoft and Nokia the strong brands in the market Nokia might be a brand name, but Symbian is not Microsoft #2, Nokia #6 Many other players have strong brands

Sony, HP, Samsung, Ericsson, Panasonic etc “Everyone knows Microsoft never loses”

Linux has a niche market feel to it Relatively poor mass market awareness of Palm OS

Conclusions Brand weight in the market is massive

Microsoft and Nokia dominant Nokia lacking on the software front

Sony and its gaming empire in a key position How can interoperability with Microsoft dominated desktop

machines be guaranteed? Linux does not have much going for it

Nor does Palm OS Hard to tell which way the Far East will go

Might be most significant of all with China’s 260 million users

Lots of local solutions already (I-Mode)