Mobile Apps: The Big Picture · 2020-04-18 · Mobile Appstore Ecosystem OEMS Operators Content &...
Transcript of Mobile Apps: The Big Picture · 2020-04-18 · Mobile Appstore Ecosystem OEMS Operators Content &...
Mobile Apps: The Big Picture
© Chetan Sharma Consulting, All Rights Reserved Oct 5, 20102http://www.chetansharma.com
Chetan Sharma ConsultingChetan Sharma Consulting
• Market Research– Research and Forecasting– Competitive Analysis– Market Sizing
• Strategy– Consumer & Enterprise
• Roadmap• Product and Technology Strategy• Technical Due-Diligence• R&D• Business Plan Development• Revenue Models
• Intellectual Property– Strategy, Audit, & Policy
• Alcatel Lucent• Disney• Motorola• KTF• Comcast• Infospace• Startups• Others
– Patents, Infringement analysis– Patent Mining and Valuation– Litigation – Consulting & Testifying Expert
• Qualcomm vs. Broadcom (ITC)• Sony Ericsson vs. Samsung (ITC)• Upaid vs. Satyam Computers• FedEx vs. Katz• AT&T Mobility• Sprint Nextel vs. Verizon Wireless• Everypath and E*Trade vs. Ajaxo• Others
§ 9 yr old Seattle based Strategy firm exclusively focused on Mobile§ Advisor to major operators, brands, startups, VCs, and Fortune 500 firms around
the world. § Strategy for each of the top 6 global mobile data operators§ Have a unique 360o view of the ecosystem
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MOBILE ECOSYSTEM TRENDS
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Mobile Ecosystem is getting ComplexMobile Ecosystem is getting Complex
Fixed broadband networkoperator
TV creation & distribution
SearchOther CE creation & distribution
Software & applications
Mobile Operators
Social Networking
mPayments
Home networking & automation
Games
Fixed video network operator
Music creation & distribution
Print creation & distribution
Movie creation & distribution
Mobile device creation & distribution
Consumers
Source: Adapted from T-Mobile USA, Inc.
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Voice Revenues have Voice Revenues have PlateauedPlateaued
•Voice Revenues in Japan have beendeclining for years, it started in the USlast year•Implications – more focus on data – for marketing, products, churn management, etc.
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Data Revenues > Voice RevenuesData Revenues > Voice Revenues
Data surpassed Voice revenues at SoftbankLast quarter, DoCoMo next quarter, US late 2012/early 2013
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DATA IS LEADING THE CHARGE/CHANGE
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Global Mobile Technology EvolutionGlobal Mobile Technology Evolution
First time, data is leading the charge
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Mobile Revenue DistributionMobile Revenue Distribution
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Data Revenue DistributionData Revenue Distribution
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Global Trends: Mobile RevenuesGlobal Trends: Mobile Revenues
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MOBILE APPS MARKET BY THE NUMBERS
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Growth in Mobile AppstoresGrowth in Mobile Appstores
Source: Wipconnector
The # of appstores have tripled in a year
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Apps moving beyond the phonesApps moving beyond the phones
BMW Appstore
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Growth is fueled by smartphones and Growth is fueled by smartphones and adoption of data servicesadoption of data services
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Global Mobile Apps MarketGlobal Mobile Apps Market
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Global Mobile Apps MarketGlobal Mobile Apps Market
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Mobile Apps: Revenue by channelMobile Apps: Revenue by channel
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Apps vs. Web: The Futile DebateApps vs. Web: The Futile Debate
• Developers care about two things:– Reach – potential of reaching most number of paid
(onetime, subscription, inapp) or clickhappy subscribers
– Cost – cheapest way to reach these subscribers
• Adoption Drivers– Penetration of HTML5+ browsers on mobile
– Difference between the native OS support and browser access to the same APIs
– Implementation differences between various browsers
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Use what makes senseUse what makes sense
…… and push the boundariesand push the boundaries
Native iPhone App
Native + Browser iPad App
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Smartphone Usage: Apps vs. BrowserSmartphone Usage: Apps vs. Browser
Source: Comscore MobiLens, Oct 2010Smartphones are generally using 3G+
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Games dominate apps usageGames dominate apps usage
Source: Distimo, Q3 2010, Top 100 apps
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So So ……
• Games are hard to build in the browser today
• Games are always at the cutting edge of the user experience
• However, apps that don’t require access to “all”available native APIs can easily be rendered in HTML5+ and they will …– Broadband network availability/reliability is not
completely there yet
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However, one thing is for sure However, one thing is for sure ……
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Impact on CarriersImpact on Carriers
• Carriers starting to get cut of the Apps economy– Offdeck revenues > Ondeck revenues in 2010
– Create competing appstores
– Figure out mobile advertising strategy• Look at multi-device, three-screen strategies
• Collaborate to Compete
– Find new ways to monetize app traffic
– Stay content with bit revenue
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CONTEXT DRIVEN ECONOMYCONTEXT DRIVEN ECONOMY
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Analytics frameworkAnalytics framework
Static , BatchReporting
CustomizedAlerts
Statistical Analysis
PredictiveAnalytics
EmbeddedPredictive
Analytics &Optimization
Drill Down
Ad-Hoc Reporting
Intelligence from Data, Effort
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ANALYTICS
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Shift from IconShift from Icon--Centric NavigationCentric Navigation
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MOBILE APP ECOSYSTEM: WHAT MATTERS
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Start w/ Rev ShareStart w/ Rev Share
NTT DoCoMo Most Appstores
1999 91/9 10/90
2002 91/9 20/80
2005 91/9 50/50
2009 91/9 70/30 - 90/10
2011-12 91/9 100/0?
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Mobile Appstore EcosystemMobile Appstore Ecosystem
OEMS Operators
Content & IPAdmob
RIM
Motorola
LG
Microsoft
Verizon ATT
Sprint
T-Mobile
Orange
China Mobile
Acquisitions
Tool Providers
Flurry
Apple
Samsung
Nokia
Millennial Media
SUN Paypal
Microsoft
LOWEST HIGHEST
# of APPS % of PROFITS
HIGHER LOWER
HIGHEST LOWEST orNEGLIGIBLE
Glu Mobile
Digital Choclate
Amazon
Direct TVReal
The Weather Channel
TiVO Facebook
NY Times
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Sustaining the Open Developer EcosystemSustaining the Open Developer Ecosystem
Rovio Tapulous ngmoco
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It is not about the OS/Appstore, It is not about the OS/Appstore, It is about the EcosystemIt is about the Ecosystem
• iFund, Connection with Investors (50% of the companies now with > $10M in rev)
• iTunes, Carrier Billing• Location, Presence• User Profile, Context• Reports, Analytics• $0 Signup, $0 Certification• Better Search and Discovery, Social Interaction, Virality• Better bandwidth management • Caching and Optimization• Time to approval/market• Flexible payment/billing models• Better networks, devices• Greater Rev Share• Reduced Fragmentation • More Open APIs• Marketing Dollars
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