MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker ...€¦ · 25.09.2020 · • The Spanish...
Transcript of MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker ...€¦ · 25.09.2020 · • The Spanish...
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19
Tracker – September 25
by Tom Lake
COVID-19 Trends and Developments
• The Spanish government has recommended that the capital city, Madrid, is placed
into a full COVID-19 lockdown due to a spike in cases in the city. Spain recorded its
fourth consecutive day of 10,000+ new cases registered on September 24, taking the
country’s overall caseload since the start of the pandemic to over 700,000. The
tighter lockdown restrictions already in place in 37 zones of the city have been
expanded to 45 zones as of today.
• There remains no sign of a sustained decline in new cases recorded in the United
States, with the seven-day average new case load remaining above 40,000 new
cases per day for the past week. The number of fatalities due to the virus also
continues to plateau rather than fall, with the seven-day average around 700-800
fatalities per day over the course of September.
• For the second day in a row the United Kingdom registered its highest single-day
total of new cases on September 24, with 6,634 new cases added to the total. The
record figure came on the day the country entered a period of stricter restrictions,
with hospitality venues forced to close at 10pm and fines for breaking lockdown
restrictions increased.
• Having so far avoided the mass-scale outbreaks recorded in many of its
neighbouring countries, the Netherlands registered its highest number of new cases
on September 24, with 2,544 added to the total. The country’s total number of cases
stands at 103k on September 24, compared to 281k in Germany, 108k in Belgium,
and 511k in France.
Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)
Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 25. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Global
Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)
Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)
Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Data correct as of 1000BST September 25. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain,
Sweden and the UK not available.
Country Confirmed
Cases
New Cases in Past 24
Hrs
Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past 24 Hrs
Mortality Rate (per
100 recorded
cases)
Rate of Increase in Cases
(7-day average)
Global 32,141,225 361,390 22,244,064 981,808 6,704 3.1 0.91%
Argentina 678,266 13,467 536,589 14,766 390 2.2 1.73%
Australia 27,000 20 24,521 869 8 3.2 0.07%
Belgium 108,768 1,881 N/A 9,965 6 9.2 1.50%
Brazil 4,657,702 66,338 4,102,954 139,808 1,703 3.0 0.64%
Canada 151,087 1,148 130,576 9,297 3 6.2 0.80%
Chile 451,634 1,731 426,876 12,469 124 2.8 0.34%
China 90,424 15 85,323 4,738 0 5.2 0.02%
Colombia 790,823 6,555 662,277 24,746 0 3.1 0.88%
France 536,289 27,833 95,980 31,524 77 5.9 2.43%
Germany 281,346 2,321 248,523 9,436 13 3.4 0.64%
Hong Kong 5,056 7 N/A 104 0 2.1 0.18%
India 5,732,518 86,508 4,756,164 91,149 1,129 1.6 1.36%
Iran 436,319 3,521 367,829 25,015 175 5.7 0.78%
Italy 304,323 1,786 221,762 35,781 23 11.8 0.54%
Japan 80,490 481 72,066 1,540 15 1.9 0.54%
Mexico 715,457 5,408 605,796 75,439 490 10.5 0.64%
Peru 782,695 6,149 636,489 31,870 302 4.1 0.72%
Russia 1,123,976 6,489 930,955 19,867 147 1.8 0.56%
Saudi Arabia 331,857 498 314,793 4,599 30 1.4 0.16%
Singapore 57,654 15 57,333 27 0 0.05 0.03%
South Africa 667,049 1,861 595,589 16,283 77 2.4 0.25%
South Korea 23,455 114 20,978 395 2 1.7 0.42%
Spain 704,209 10,653 N/A 31,118 84 4.4 1.72%
Sweden 90,289 533 N/A 5,878 2 6.5 0.39%
UK 416,363 6,634 N/A 41,902 40 10.1 1.25%
US 6,977,658 44,110 2,710,183 202,798 914 2.9 0.64%
Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)
The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from
COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective
country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each
country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Argentina
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Australia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Belgium
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Brazil
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Canada
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Chile
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
China
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Colombia
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
France
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Germany
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Hong Kong
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
India
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Iran
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Italy
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Japan
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Mexico
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Peru
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Russia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Saudi Arabia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Singapore
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
South Africa
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
South Korea
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Spain
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
Sweden
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 25, and represents full-
day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.
Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MapChart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 24. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, Brazil, US,
France, Argentina, Spain, Israel, UK, Colombia.
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
UK
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep
US
Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 24. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Israel,
Montenegro, France, Bahrain, Brazil, Argentina, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Spain, Bahamas. Countries with population
below 100k excluded.
Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of
Population
Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 23. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain,
Panama, Israel, Kuwait, Peru, Chile, Brazil, US, Oman. Countries with population below 100k excluded.
Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 24. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: Brazil,
India, U Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Iran, Russia, Indonesia, Chile.
Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 24. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Bahamas,
Rwanda, Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Israel, Montenegro, Malta, Mexico. Countries with population below 100k excluded.
Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head
of State’s Population
Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from September 24. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru,
Belgium, Spain, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, UK, US, Italy. Countries with population below 100k excluded.