MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker … · 2020. 9. 8. · MNI POLITICAL RISK...
Transcript of MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker … · 2020. 9. 8. · MNI POLITICAL RISK...
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19
Tracker – September 8
by Tom Lake
COVID-19 Trends and Developments
• Brazil’s daily new case total on September 7 of 10,273 was the lowest the country
has recorded since May 17. It also marked the third consecutive day of a decline in
case numbers in Brazil, while the average daily increase across the past week of
34,127 is the lowest 7-day average since July 21.
• France’s average daily increase in cases across the past week (6,884) is the highest
total since April 18 with new infections continuing to spike in major cities. The spike in
cases has not been followed by a delayed increase in fatalities from COVID-19, with
the 7-day average increase not exceeding 21 per day since mid-July.
• The new coronavirus caseload in the United States continues to decline, with the
average increase across the past seven days recorded at 38,576. This is the lowest
average daily increase across a week since June 28. The increase of 24,257 cases
on September 7 is the lowest nationwide since June 16.
• Following data revisions in both countries, Ecuador and Bolivia are now in the top 10
countries for highest number of COVID-19 fatalities per capita, meaning that the
United States and Mexico out of the list of most severely hit countries worldwide with
regards to fatalities as a proportion of the national population.
Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)
Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 8. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Global
Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)
Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)
Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b As of 1200BST September 8. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain, Sweden and the UK
not available.
Country Confirmed
Cases
New Cases Last
Week
Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past Week
Mortality Rate (per
100 recorded
cases)
Rate of Increase in Cases
(7-day average)
Global 27,332,433 1,847,666 18,145,299 892,443 35,428 3.3 1.00%
Argentina 488,007 70,272 349,132 10,129 1,210 2.1 2.20%
Australia 26,373 554 22,601 770 107 2.9 0.29%
Belgium 88,769 3,533 N/A 9,909 12 11.2 0.63%
Brazil 4,147,794 239,522 3,522,155 126,960 4,364 3.1 0.81%
Canada 134,295 3,377 118,192 9,196 17 6.8 0.36%
Chile 424,274 12,548 394,399 11,652 331 2.7 0.44%
China 90,078 164 84,873 4,732 8 5.3 0.03%
Colombia 666,521 51,427 518,229 21,412 1,362 3.2 1.11%
France 367,174 48,188 88,088 30,732 66 8.4 2.13%
Germany 253,626 8,824 225,209 9,331 24 3.7 0.51%
Hong Kong 4,889 79 N/A 98 8 2.0 0.23%
India 4,280,422 589,256 3,250,429 72,775 6,442 1.7 2.14%
Iran 388,810 13,598 335,572 22,410 738 5.8 0.52%
Italy 278,784 9,570 210,015 35,553 62 12.8 0.52%
Japan 72,213 3,817 61,730 1,377 64 1.9 0.76%
Mexico 637,509 37,949 524,669 67,781 2,540 10.6 0.85%
Peru 689,977 42,811 506,422 29,838 894 4.3 0.95%
Russia 1,027,334 34,932 840,997 17,818 568 1.7 0.50%
Saudi Arabia 321,456 5,684 296,737 4,107 178 1.3 0.25%
Singapore 57,044 232 56,333 27 0 0.05 0.06%
South Africa 639,362 12,321 563,891 15,004 741 2.3 0.29%
South Korea 21,432 1,250 16,297 341 15 1.6 0.79%
Spain 525,549 62,691 N/A 29,516 364 5.6 1.86%
Sweden 85,558 1,179 N/A 5,837 24 6.8 0.20%
UK 350,100 14,227 N/A 41,554 50 11.9 0.63%
US 6,300,622 270,035 2,315,995 189,208 4,544 3.0 0.61%
Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)
The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from
COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective
country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each
country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Argentina
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Australia
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Belgium
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Brazil
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Canada
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Chile
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
China
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Colombia
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
France
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Germany
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Hong Kong
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
India
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Iran
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Italy
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Japan
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Mexico
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Peru
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Russia
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Saudi Arabia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Singapore
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
South Africa
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
South Korea
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Spain
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
Sweden
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 8, and represents full-
day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.
Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 7. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, Spain, US, France, Brazil,
Argentina, Peru, Russia, Iraq, Mexico.
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
UK
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep
US
Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 7. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Spain, Bahrain, Israel, Costa
Rica, France, Belize, Argentina, Peru, Kuwait, Montenegro. Countries with population below 100k excluded.
Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of
State’s Population
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 7. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain, Panama, Chile,
Kuwait, Peru, Brazil, US, Oman, Maldives. Countries with population below 100k excluded.
Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 7. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: Ecuador, Bolivia, India,
Brazil, Argentina, US, Mexico, Peru, Iran, South Africa.
Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 7. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Ecuador, Bolivia, Suriname,
Costa Rica, Argentina, Bahamas, Peru, Chile, Panama, North Macedonia. Countries with population below 100k excluded.
Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head
of State’s Population
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from September 7. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium, Spain,
UK, Chile, Bolivia, Ecuador, Brazil, Italy, Sweden. Countries with population below 100k excluded.