Mmas Thesis Outline Parlade

7/28/2019 Mmas Thesis Outline Parlade

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MMAS THESIS OUTLINE

Can Insurgency in the Philippines be Won?

MAJOR JUN PARLADE

10 January 2006


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CHAPTERS

1. INTRODUCTION AND

METHODOLOGY

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

3. HISTORY 1946-1987

4. THE INSURGENCY ( 1987 TO DATE)

5. THE COUNTERINSURGENCY (1987TO DATE)

6. ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION


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I INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY

A background of what the study is all about.

Introduces Bard O Neills framework oninsurgency:

A. Strategic and Historical Setting: Pre-Insurgency Situation (Chapter 3)

Historical Background Physical Environment (Current Geographic, Regional

Context)

Human Environment (Groups, Grievances, Attitudes,

Connections) Summary/Conclusion (Galulas pre-requisites: cause,

government administrative weakness, geographicenvironment, available outside support)


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B. Conduct of Insurgency ( Chapter 4)

Initial Phase (leaders, goals, type of

insurgency) Organization, Decision-making,

communication

Ideology, objectives, message Strategy, patterns, use of violence and terror

Development, phases, adaptation

Operational Analysis (organizational COG,lines of operation, culmination)


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7. Decisive points, vulnerabilities for thisinsurgency

Images to key groups, efforts to shape image

Recruitment

Training, developing Movement

Internal, external sanctuaries

Money (obtaining, moving, distributing)

Arms, ammunitions, materiel

Insurgent controlled areas (administration, expansion)

External influence, support, direction

Unity, competing organizations and fragmentation


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8. Responses of Population/Society Changes in groups (objectives, membership,

relationships); Emergence of new groups

Key groups initial support

Changes in support to insurgency, counterinsurgency

Critical Perceptions (of ability toprotect/coerce/reward, purpose, endstate)

Actions or inactions (reasons, causes)


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C. Conduct of the Counterinsurgency (Chapter 5) Initial situation analysis, responses

Civil military organization, decision-making, integration

COIN Plan Analysis of Insurgency (Objectives, strength, strategy)

Decisions, policies Resources, other limitations

Leaders

Information, influence operations

Implementation, adjustments

Identification of key groups, mobilization efforts Populace Resource Control Measures

Key Tactics, Techniques, Procedures

Efforts in security, balanced development, mobilization,neutralization


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Operational Analysis (Organizational COG, Lines of

Operation, decisive points, culmination)

External support, influence (including advisors role,

impact)

Responses of Population/Society

Key groups initial support

Changes in groups (objectives, membership, relationships);

Emergence of new groups

Changes in support to insurgency, counterinsurgency Critical Perceptions (of ability to protect/coerce/reward,

purpose, endstate)

Actions or inactions (reasons, causes)


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INSURGENCY IN THE

PHILIPPINES

CPP/NPA Communist inspired

MILF Muslim seccessionistASG Islamic Jihadist


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THREATS TO NATIONAL

SECURITY

CPP-NPA (Maoist)

MILF

ABU SAYAFF GROUP


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COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE

PHILIPPINES (CPP) FOUNDED IN 1969- from MAOIST-LENINIST

principles and doctrines

By JOSE MA. SISON a professor from theUniversity of the Philippines

Composed of young activist professors andstudent leaders

Visited China in mid-1960s during the RedRevolution

Objective overthrow the government throughviolent means and establish communist rule

The primary threat to national security


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Strategic Line of Protracted

Peoples War

Maoist strategy that calls for the encircling of the

cities from the countryside - establishment of

guerrilla bases from the countryside from where

the revolutionary struggle advances to the citiesto seize political power

Peoples war harnesses and integrates all

available resources to wage a common struggle

in the political, ideological, economic, culturaland military fields; permeates all levels and

sectors of society; relies heavily on masses


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ORGANIZATION

Central Committee (Politburo)- based in Manila

Regional Party Committees one each from the 12political regions (5-6 provinces each region)

Provincial Party Committees 3-5 provinces/region or

some 46 PPCs of the 78 provinces of the country Front Committees 1 to 3 Fronts per province

depending on the size and support of the mass base; asof 2003 Luzon- 49 guerilla fronts, Visayas 23,Mindanao - 34

District Committees 2 to 3 Discoms per province


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NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC FRONT

(NDF) Legal front organizations of the United Front of the CPP

Composed of organizations of : Teachers (Association of Concerned Teachers) or ACT

Youth (National Youth Movement) NYM or KabataangMakabayan (KM)

Students (League of Filipino Students) or LFS Lawyers (Free Legal Assistance Group) or FLAG

Human rights advocates (KARAPATAN)

Union Members (Trade Union Congress of the Phil)

Farmers (Kilusang Magsasaka ng Pilipinas) or KMP

Drivers (PISTON) Government employees ( COURAGE)

Women (Gabriela)

Fishermen, Priests, Laborers, Etc


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NEW PEOPLES ARMY (NPA)

The armed wing of the CPP/NDF

Lead by the Chairman, Military Commission

Main Regional Guerrilla Unit (MRGU) composed of 75to 150 red fighters

Sub Regional Guerrilla Unit (SRGU) composed of 40to 70 red fighters

Plager Platoon Guerrilla composed of 15 to 30 redfighters, one or more Plager per Front Committee

Semi Legal Teams (SLTs) composed of 4 to 7 red

fighters , 3 to 4 SLTs per Discoms SPARU Sparrow Unit or hit squads for the urban

areas, 2-4 members per unit

Reached its peak of 27,000 in 1987, down to 9,000


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MASS BASE

Composed of:

- sympathizers

- supporters

- couriers Provides logistics, intelligence, safehouses,mobility

Organize mass works and mass actions

Willingly or unwillingly Distributed among Influenced and Threatenedvillages around the Guerilla Zone


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