Ldc Graduation CriteriaLDC Graduation Criteria - Calculations Behind
Mitigating the impact of graduation from the least … the impact of graduation from the least...
Transcript of Mitigating the impact of graduation from the least … the impact of graduation from the least...
Mitigating the impact of graduation from the least developed countries category
Daniel Gay, Inter-Regional Adviser
CDP Secretariat
UNDESA
Namsuk Kim, Economic Affairs Officer CDP Secretariat
UNDESA
New York, 17 January 2017
Source: UNCTAD/ UNDESA
0
0.5
1
1.5
2Per cent
Share of non-oil LDC exports of goods
and services in world exports Export concentration index by
development status, 1995-2013
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0.6
Least developed countriesHigh-income developing economiesMiddle-income developing economies
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10Per cent
GDP percapita(constant2010 US$)
LDC GDP as share of world total
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10
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25
30
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Middleincome
LDCs
High income
Investment as % GDP
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Private households with employed personsEducation; health and social work; other community, social and personal servicesPublic administration and defence; compulsory social securityFinancial intermediation, real estate, renting and business activitiesTransport, storage and communicationsWholesale, retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods; hotels and restaurantsConstructionElectricity, gas and water supplyManufacturingMining and quarryingAgriculture, hunting, forestry; fishing
Evolution of economic structure in LDCs since 1970
What is productive capacity? Productive capacities
Productive resources
- Natural resources
- Human resources
- Financial capital
- Physical capital
Entrepreneurial
capabilities
- Core competencies
- Technological capabilities
Production linkages
External
- Global value-chains
- Links between FDI and domestic entrepreneurs
- Resource flows
Domestic
- Backward and forward linkages
- Information flows
- Production clusters
- Links between big firms & SMEs
Selected references: Hirschman (1958); UNCTAD LDC reports (2006-14), Kalecki (1969); Kaldor (1967, 1981); Ocampo (2005).
Capital accumulation
technological
progress
structural
change
Progress
• Productive capacity diagnostic studies - Bhutan, Nepal, Uganda
• Using CDP work and the growth identification and facilitation framework (GIFF) developed by Justin Lin • Identify latent comparative advantage to choose the right target
• Identify binding constraints
• Attract global investors
• Scale-up successful self-discoveries
• Recognise power of industrial parks
• Provide limited incentives to appropriate industries
• Developing LDC graduation platform
Progress cont.
Scoping missions
Consultations – Antalya IPoA
Internal discussions
Development of LDC platform prototype
Formation of focus group
Training on productive capacity with 10 LDCs at workshop in Beijing with Justin Lin & Charles Gore
Testing & discussion of LDC platform
Consultations with experts and agencies in Geneva
Improvement of concept
Progress cont.
Before During After Information and data
• Overview of LDC criteria
• Historical status/ data & snapshots
• Link to ITC country page
• Link to OECD DAC ODA data visuals
• Case study
• Role of UN agencies inc. CDP
Information and data
• Best practice on graduation
• Expert view
• Info on smooth transition (including
examples of smooth transition strategies)
• Case study
Information and data
• Best practice on post-graduation
• Expert view
• Info on smooth transition
• Case study
Activities
1. Identify sectors – GIFF & others
2. Determine potential impact of
graduation on ISMs
a. Trade,
b. Aid
c. Other ISMs
3. Set up graduation work
programme
4. Consult stakeholders
Checklist
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
Activities
1. Set up consultative
mechanism
2. Consult stakeholders and
build awareness
3. Build graduation into
development plan
4. Ensure impact of graduation
incorporated into sector
strategies
5. Reassess potential impact of
graduation if necessary
6. Consult development partners
7. Prepare smooth transition
strategy
8. Report to CDP
Checklist
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
Activities
1. Manage graduation
2. Implement transition
strategy
3. Improve institutional
capacity for graduation
4. Enact policies to develop
productive capacity in
identified areas
5. Ensure smooth transition
incorporated into
development strategy
6. Continue to ensure impact of
graduation incorporated into
sector strategies
Checklist
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
First eligibility finding
Between first eligibility
finding and graduation recommen-
dation
Graduation recommen-
dation
Between graduation recommen-dation and graduation becoming effective
Graduation Post
graduation
Tools • Productive capacity indicators (UNCTAD)
• CDP monitoring reports
• Impact assessments
• Productive capacity studies (GIFF)
• ITC market analysis tools
• Diagnostic Trade Integration Studies (DTIS)
• CDP Cost-benefit analysis tool
• OECD production transformation policy reviews
• UNIDO work on structural transformation
• UNCTAD vulnerability profiles
Help & sources of collaboration UN DESA/ CDP, UNDP, UNCTAD, UNFCCC, UNOHRLLS, ITC, WTO, EIF, OECD, Regional commissions, graduated countries and other potential graduates
Next steps
Validate studies
• Uganda
• Bhutan
• Nepal
Put into practice
• Facilitate development of policy proposals
• Link with international partners – eg. Centre for New Structural Economics
• Integrate productive capacity studies with LDC platform
Analyse loss of ISMs
• Help graduates and potential graduates understand loss of ISMs (ongoing).
Next steps
Develop LDC
platform
• Finalise concept
• Build website
• Test, focus group
• Target soft launch by end-2017
Facilitate smooth
transition
• Provide information
• Assist with smooth transition strategies where possible (ongoing)
Impact assessments
(2017)
• Bhutan, Nepal
• Kiribati, Sao Tome, Solomon Islands, Timor Leste
Questions
• Feedback on conceptual approach?
• Comments on LDC graduation platform?
• Collaboration?
• Contributions to platform?
Impact Assessment
•Ex-ante impact assessment of the likely consequences of graduation
•Eligible for graduation for the first time
–Impact Assessment (DESA), Vulnerability Profile (UNCTAD)
•Examine possible changes in preferential markets access, special treatment regarding WTO obligations, ODA and general assistance.
Static assessment
•Collect information through data and research on the support of current use
•Collect information from the country’s main development and trading partners
•Partners asked for smooth transition
•Limited responses from development partners
Enhanced assessment
•Use assessments of productive capacity undertaken in DA project •Scenarios on trade changes and global trend •Implemented in 2018 triennial review •Likely to be applied to 6 countries
Support Measures Portal for LDCs www.un.org/ldcportal
Namsuk Kim
UN DESA
What is the LDC Portal?
•Platform with relevant information on LDC-specific international support measures
•Launched at the Fourth UN Conference on the LDCs, Istanbul, 2011
•GA requests its continuous updating and improvement (A/RES/67/221)
Purpose of the LDC Portal
•Consolidate access of information on availability • Increase awareness of
measures and conditions •Explanation of rules
related to access •Assist in identifying gaps in
access and delivery •Support capacity building
to access the measures •Enhance ownership of the
measures •Providing tools to become
more pro-active
Information in the LDC Portal
•About 130 Support Measures for LDCs –Trade: 80
–Development Assistance: 15
–General Support: 40
•More than 750 articles in total –Trade: 500
–Development Assistance: 100
–General Support: 150