Mitglied der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEA Hydrogen Annex 30 Global Hydrogen Systems Analysis Subtask...

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IEA Hydrogen Annex 30Global Hydrogen Systems AnalysisSubtask B:

Actualized and harmonized the level of hydrogen knowledge

Jochen Linssen | Clemens A. Trudewind

September the 16th & 17th, 2010

September the 16th & 17th, 2010 Institute of Energy Research – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation Folie 2

Content

Background and objectives

Working packages (Framework)

Needed Inputs

Summary


Background and objectives of Subtask B

collaboration with subtasks, other HIA tasks and IEA analysts in order to support the IEA WEO and IEA ETP with an HIA well balanced database

perform comprehensive technical and market analysis of H2 technologies and resources, supply and demand related to projected use of H2 in a sustainable low-carbon energy world

update the assessment of H2 technology maturity and H2 projections and prepare analysis about hydrogen sources and utilizations

Clemens Trudewind

Hier vielleicht besser Abbildung


Timeline and milestone


Interface with other HIA tasks and IEA analysts regarding data and R&D progress

Collection and preparation of relevant data for a comprehensive energy systems analysis in collaboration with other tasks and subtasks

Data Update of the IEA study: „Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells“ (last published in 2005)

Working packages of subtask B:Actualized and harmonized level of H2 knowledge

Clemens Trudewind

Kurzfassung "Prospects for hydrogen and fuel cells - 2005"als Folie einfügen!


System analysis• is the attempt to make statements• about a defined and complex system

(e.g. technical, economical, ecological and/or social systems)

• by an abstracted and integrated modelwhich therefore does not reflect the reality andwhich is only meaningful within its limitations.

Models • link input elements with output elements by functions• distinguish descriptive, explanatory and decision models• and differentiate between

real ideal, natural artificial, open closed, dynamic static,deterministic stochastic models.

What is system analysis?

Definition of the considered technology and

the assessment criteria

Identification of characteristics

Efficiency analysis

Sensitivity analysis

Comparison andinterpretation

Results


Energy Systems Modeling and Competing Technologies

Oil productsimports

Primary energy

Coalimports

Nuclear fuel imports

Energy conversion and transport End use sectors

Crude oilimports

Renewable sources

Coal extraction

Natural gasimports

ProductionIndustry

Non-energy consumpt.

Households

Transportand traffic

Smallconsumers

Decentralizedco-

generation

Centralized co-

generation

Natural gasextraction

Power plants

Transport/Distrtibution

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Crude oil

Light fuel oil

Gasoline

Diesel and kerosine



Housing space

Number of employees

Passenger and freight

transport capacities

Import of electricity

Refinery

Demand

Demand for raw materials

Technical PropertiesCost of Single Technology

DemandPossible Energy Flows Political, Envirnomental, Social Tagets

Energy Flows

Technical Capacities

System Costs min


Structure of Update

• Hydrogen as Part of an Energy System The role of hydrogen Transition Strategies Targets in RD&D

• Hydrogen production electrolysis, reforming fossil fuels and biomass;

water splitting by nuclear and solar hydrogen production cost

• Hydrogen transportation and distribution Transportation pipeline, truck or ship Large scale hydrogen storage Hydrogen refueling stations

• Mobile On-board hydrogen storage Gaseous, liquid, solid storage

• Hydrogen Applications Fuel cells Internal Combustion engines Chemical Feedstock other hydrogen end-use technologies

An

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cite

Lig

nite

Oil

Na

tura

lGa

sN

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ear

Re

ne

wa

ble

CoalConversion

Refinery

Power PlantsElectricity grid

CHPDistrict Heating

Distribution

GasDistribution

Reforming,Cracking

Hyd

rog

en

Bio

fue

lsO

il pr

odu

cts

Die

sel f

uel

Ga

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as

Me

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/Eth

an

olE

lect

rici

tyC

oal

Pro

du

cts

Dis

tric

thea

t

Industry

Transportation

Residential

SmallConsumer

DomesticProductionof Primary

EnergyCarrier

Importof Energy

Carrier

NetProduction

Process heat

Power

Information

Light

Space heat

PassengerTransport

Transport ofgoods

Electrolysis

Demand-side

aa

Conversion Infrastructure/Distribution

a

Consumer sectors

Supply-side

Use


Inputs needed

New technology trends in

- production,

- transport/ distribution,

- storage and

- end use applications

Identified H2 experts and their knowledge


Subtask B: Input for Update

• Literature review with special focus on new trends in sources, supply and demand of hydrogen; follow up from Task 18 literature review

• Identify and describe competing/ complementary/ supplementary energy carriers and conversion technologies, their trends and resulting technological and economical targets for hydrogen

• Design of a questionnaire for gathering hydrogen experts knowledge and technology estimations within and out of the HIA

• Balancing and harmonization of data with respect to efficiencies, emissions, costs, other boundaries of hydrogen technologies


For discussionStructure of data

Source: EduaR&D-Project 2009

Technology for Hydrogen Production

Technology

Economy

Environment

Flexibility

Fix Cost

Variable Cost

Operation Emissions

Resources Utilisation

Efficiency

Full Load

CHP Factor

Partial Load

Dynamics

Investment

Fixed Operating Costs

Fuel Costs

Operating costs

CO2 taxes

GHG emissions

hazardous emissions

Kumulative Energy Expenditure

Area Utilisation

Raw Materrials Utilisation

Technology Alternative 1

Technology Alternative n


Principle Pattern of Technology Description

Technology Description Efficiency Costs EmissionsEtc.

OutputInput

e.g. raw materials

e.g. primary energye.g. end energy

e.g. emissions

Frame Conditions

e.g. political restrictions


Example: Data from the Prospects Report 2005

Database for the ETP / WEO scenario calculation


Transport scenarios

This scenario reflects the uptake of technologies and alternative fuels across transport modes that are economic at a carbon price of up to USD 175 per ton of CO2-eq saved by 2050.


Scenario Results Transport

In the BLUE Map scenario, most conventional gasoline- and diesel-powered LDVs have been replaced by 2050, largely by hydrogen and electrically powered vehicles.


Fuels and their Production Processes


IEA Roadmaps 2010/ 2011

The IEA is developing additional roadmaps that will be published in 2010 and 2011. These roadmaps include: biofuels; biomass for heat and power generation; cleaner, high-efficiency coal; efficient industry processes in other emissions-intensive

sectors; energy efficient/low-carbon buildings: heating and cooling; energy efficient/low-carbon buildings: design and operation; geothermal energy; hydrogen production and fuel-cell vehicles; smart grids; vehicle efficiency.


IEA Portfolio


Other Important Implementing AgreementsEnd-use, TransportAdvanced Fuel Cells Advanced Motor FuelsHybrid and Electric

Energy Electricity

Fossil FuelsClean Coal CentreGreenhouse Gas R&D ProgrammeRenewable Energy and HydrogenRenewable Energy Technology Deployment

Cross-Cutting ActivitiesEnergy Technology Data Exchange Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme


Summary and outlook

Goals and success criteria have to be developed

Collaboration of subtasks are closed connected to the success of Task 30

Work plan for subtask B has to be finalized in order to actualize and harmonize the H2 knowledge base and to establish working steps and products


Back Up


LDV sales by technology type


Statements from the ETP 2050, Blue Map


GHG Reduction for different fuels and production path


Energy Conversion Sector


Costs and GHGReduction


For discussion

Source: Bartels, M.; Lindenberger, D.; Dittmann, L.; et al.: Multidimensionale Technikbewertung. In: Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH; Projektträger Jülich (Hrsg.): Das EduaR&D-Projekt: Energie-Daten und Analyse R&D. Entwicklung und Anwendung systemanalytischer Instrumente für die Schwerpunktsetzung in der Energieforschung. Münster: LIT-Verlag Dr. W. Hopf, 2009, S. 185-213 (Bild auf Seite 198)

Technology for Hydrogen Production

Technology

Economy

Environment

Flexibility

Fix Cost

Variable Cost

Operation Emissions


Efficiency

Full Load

CHP FActor Partial Load

Start Up Ability Dynamics

Investment Fixed Operating Costs

Fuel Costs

Operating costs

CO2 taxes

GHG emissionshazardous emissions

Kumulative Energy Expenditure

Area Utilisation


Technology Alternative 1

Technology Alternative n


For discussion

Quelle: Jochem, E.; Bradke, H.; Cremer, C.; et al.: Systemanalyse und Methodik: Effizienzsteigerung der Energieforschung – ein Bewertungsverfahren. In: Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH; Projektträger Jülich (Hrsg.): Das EduaR&D-Projekt: Energie-Daten und Analyse R&D. Entwicklung und Anwendung systemanalytischer Instrumente für die Schwerpunktsetzung in der Energieforschung. Münster: LIT-Verlag Dr. W. Hopf, 2009, S. 9-40 (Bild auf Seite 19)


H2 and goods transport


For discussion

Quelle: Bartels, M.; Lindenberger, D.; Dittmann, L.; et al.: Multidimensionale Technikbewertung. In: Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH; Projektträger Jülich (Hrsg.): Das EduaR&D-Projekt: Energie-Daten und Analyse R&D. Entwicklung und Anwendung systemanalytischer Instrumente für die Schwerpunktsetzung in der Energieforschung. Münster: LIT-Verlag Dr. W. Hopf, 2009, S. 185-213 (Bild auf Seite 200)


Comparison of RD&D Expenditure



FC&H2

If fuel cells decline in cost in line with expectations, they could become a very attractive technology as their high power-to-heat ratios make them ideal for low base-heat loads. If hydrogen production costs come down and hydrogen distribution infrastructure is available, fuel cells will also have a significant role in decarbonising heat supply as well as in improving overall efficiency.

If the capital costs of fuel cells come down and delivered hydrogen costs can be reduced to about USD 15/GJ, then hydrogen fuel cell CHP units could be a particularly attractive abatement option in many applications in the residential and service sectors.


Subtask B:Update Hydrogen Database

Goal: Creating a harmonized, balanced and aggregated database

- Update of the IEA study: “Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells” (2005)

- Identify new technology trends in Hydrogen R&D and transition strategies

- Interface with other HIA tasks, Implementing Agreements and IEA analysts regarding hydrogen data and R&D progress

- Experts from interested HIA countries with analytical, economical … skills required



Hydrogen is introduced after 2030, with almost 200 Mtoe used in transport. In addition, 97 Mtoe is consumed in the buildings sector in small-scale fuel-cell CHP systems.

Transport BLUE Map scenario, biofuels, electricity and hydrogen together

represent 50% of total transport fuel use in 2050, strong shift towards electricity and hydrogen fuels.

CHP• BLUE CHP assumes more rapid declines in the costs of fuel-cell

combined heat and power (CHP) units using hydrogen;


Statements of ETP 2050, Hydrogen & Transport

on-board hydrogen reforming, which is expensive, or they need on-board hydrogen storage, which raises issues of cost, safety, driving range, and the need for an extensive hydrogen production and distribution infrastructure.

Refuelling and infrastructure:This issues are likely to become the main barriers to commercialisation. Vehicle fuel-cell stack and system costs have declined in recent years but are still very expensive compared to conventional ICE vehicles.

Hydrogen may be a good long-term option for certain types of trucks, depending in part on the evolution of hydrogen storage technologies.

Aircraft: The energy density of jet fuel is critical for providing adequate aircraft flying range, so shifting to gaseous fuels or electricity appears impractical. Liquid hydrogen would require major compromises in other airplane design features,

Mitglied der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEA Hydrogen Annex 30 Global Hydrogen Systems Analysis Subtask...

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