Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update...• Currently, 7.8 MAF of the 16.3 MAF of...
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217 217 217 200 200 200 255 255 255 0 0 0 163 163 163 131 132 122 239 65 53 110 135 120 112 92 56 62 102 130 102 56 48 130 120 111 237 237 237 80 119 27 252 174 .59 “The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.” May 7, 2019, 1:00 p.m. CST Next meeting: June 6, 2019 Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Transcript of Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update...• Currently, 7.8 MAF of the 16.3 MAF of...
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“The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.”
May 7, 2019, 1:00 p.m. CST
Next meeting: June 6, 2019
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Participating Agencies
National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Weather ServiceU.S. Army Corps of Engineers
NOAA Satellite and Information Service | National Centers for Environmental Information
Doug KluckRegional Climate Services Director
NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information
Climate Summary and Outlook for the Missouri Basin
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Conditions Last 90 daysTemperature & Precipitation
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php3
• Temperatures relatively cool• Precipitation variable but
some very heavy
Conditions – Last 30 daysTemperature and Precipitation
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php4
Soil Moisture:Very Wet
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/drought/
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
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Mountain Snowpack (snow water equivalent
% of normal)
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf
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Next 7 Days PrecipitationMay 7-13, 2019
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Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (May 14-20, 2019)
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
Temperature
Precipitation
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Heavy Rain Potential (5/14-20/19)
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Temperature and Precipitation ProbabilitiesMay 2019
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
Temperature
Precipitation
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3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities
(May – June - July, 2019)
Temperature
Precipitation
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/911
3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities
(June – July - August, 2019)
Temperature
Precipitation
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
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Drought Update
https://www.drought.gov/drought/
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
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∗ Current Conditions∗ El Niño Conditions Continue
∗ Some correlation with wetter than normal conditions plains -Midwest
∗ Mountain snowpack: near to slightly above normal, cooler temps help slow melt
∗ Predictions∗ Temperatures: generally leaning cool to equal chance of
above/below/near normal through the summer∗ Precipitation:
∗ Week 2 lower basin wet (KS/MO)∗ May leaning wet except far north∗ Summer leaning wet most of basin
Summary
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∗ Monthly Climate and Drought Summary and Outlook Webinar Series (3rd Thursday of each month)∗ Next one will be May 16th at 1pm∗ https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7723644331
68566797∗ Or email me ([email protected])
Thank You
BASIN CONDITIONS / FLOOD OUTLOOK
Kevin Low, P.E.Hydrologist, Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterNational Weather ServicePleasant Hill, MO
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARYMISSOURI BASIN
• Mountain snowpack has attained its 2019 peak accumulation (occurred in mid-April). Mountain melt will peak in early June. No significant flooding from mountain melt is expected.
• Eastern portion of the Missouri River basin still has ENHANCED RISK for flooding.
• Thunderstorm activity sure to bring episodic moderate level flooding across lower basin (southern IA, eastern KS, southeastern NE, MO.) VERY ACTIVE SPRING FLOOD SEASON STILL AHEAD.
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UPPER BASIN RUNOFF FOR 2019
Nicole Shorney, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of EngineersMissouri River Basin Water Management
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Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA2019 Forecast
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 Forecast Average
2019 Calendar Year Forecast = 43.2 MAF
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Soil Moisture
Source: NLDAS Soil Moisture, https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/drought/
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02468
10121416182022242628
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Inch
es o
f Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t
Total above Fort Peck
2018-2019 1981-2010 Ave 1997 2001 2011
02468
10121416182022242628
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Inch
es o
f Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t
Total Fort Peck to Garrison
2018-2019 1981-2010 Ave 1997 2001 2011Month Month
Peaked at 105% of average on 4/18
Peaked at 104% of average on 4/17
Missouri River BasinMountain Snowpack Water Content
May 7, 2019
Mountain snowpack normally peak around April 15 in both reaches.
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RESERVOIR SYSTEM REGULATION
Joel D. Knofczynski, P.E.U.S. Army Corps of EngineersMissouri River Basin Water Management
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MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM SYSTEM STORAGE ZONES AND ALLOCATIONS
Exclusive Flood Control 6%
Carryover Multiple Use 53%
Permanent Pool 25%
0
17.6
56.1
72.4
67.7
72.8
StorageIn MAF*
33.9
Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16%
Historic max - 2011
Historic min - 2007
56.1
May 7, 2019
*Storages updated in August 2013 based on reservoir surveys.
Current Storage – 64.6 MAF
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CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS – MAY 7, 2019
2220.1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent Pool
2250
2220.1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent Pool
2220.1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent Pool
2220.1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent Pool
2246
2234
2160
2030
18541850
1837.5
1775
1673
16201617
1607.5
1540
1415
13751365
1350
1320
1240
Fort Peck
Oahe
Garrison
Fort Randall
2241.21846.6
1615.8 1362.5
7.2 foot above base of Flood Control zone
12.5 foot above base of Flood Control zone
Elevation in feet msl
Elevation in feet msl
Elevation in feet msl
Elevation in feet msl
9.1 foot above base of Flood Control zone
8.3 foot above base of Flood Control zone 24
KEY POINTS
• Currently, 7.8 MAF of the 16.3 MAF of flood storage space is available.
• Full navigation season.• Full service flow support for the season. • Annual power production of 12.3B kWh.
(average is 9.4B kWh)
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Thursday, June 6, 20191:00 pm CST
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JUNE’S UPDATE
CONTACT INFORMATION
Name Office Email Address Phone Number
Eileen Williamson
USACE, NWD Public Affairs Office
[email protected] 402-996-3802
Doug Kluck NOAA, Kansas City, Climatologist
[email protected] 816-994-3008
Kevin Low National Weather Service, Hydrologist
John Remus USACE, Chief, Missouri River Basin Water Management
[email protected] 402-996-3840
Nicole Shorney USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer
[email protected] 402-996-3875
Joel Knofczynski
USACE, MRBWM,Hydraulic Engineer
[email protected] 402-996-3852
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