Missoula Market Update 1-23-2012

13 72999

1682.0 30

3.0

7

231

3.0 113

184

3

6

1.0 - 2.5acres

33

$ 210,000

6

4

113

3.0

6,501 -8,000 sqft

42.0

1249 4,501 -6,500 sqft

113

$ 169,000

3.0

274

0.25 - 0.50acre$ 289,900

4.0$ 499,000

20

7

2249

The market seems to have paused around this plateau. TheMarket Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durabilityof this trend.

The market has shown some evidence of slowing recently. Bothprices and inventory levels are relatively unchanged in recent weeks.Watch the Market Action Index for changes as it can be a leadingindicator for price changes.

Inventory has been tightening and days-on-market increasingrecently. The Market Action Index has been basically flat, notproviding strong indication for market conditions.

MISSOULA, MTMarket TrendsExecutive Summary

113

1749

2.0

Monday January 23, 2012

The median list price in MISSOULA, MT this week is $239,450.

Investigate the market in quartiles -where each quartile is 25% of homesordered by price.

Most expensive 25% of properties

Upper-middle 25% of properties

Lower-middle 25% of properties

Least expensive 25% of properties

Quartile Median Price Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.

Prudential Montana Real Estate | (406) 721-4141

No change Strong upward trend Strong downward trend

Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+ == ≠≠

≠=

Powered by Altos Research LLC | www.altosresearch.com | Copyright ©2005-2010 Altos Research LLC

Single Family Homes

Median Lot Size

17.2

Percent Relisted (reset DOM)

1749

2.0

2 %

Median Number of Bathrooms

214

Median List Price

Average Days on Market (DOM)$ 136

Percent Flip (price increased)

8,001 - 10,000 sqftMedian House Size (sq ft)

$ 239,450

23 %

3.0

Market Action Index

Median Number of Bedrooms

Asking Price Per Square Foot

n/aPercent of Properties with Price Decrease

Strong Buyer's

±+

==

==

±+

Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First

This Week

Supply and Demand

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Price

Price Trends

Market Action Index

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's theMarket?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus theamount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Seller'sMarket conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

QuartilesCharacteristics per Quartile

7-Day Rolling Average 90-Day Rolling Average Buyer/Seller Cutoff

7-Day Rolling Average 90-Day Rolling Average

Median List Price

Median Lot Size

17.2


1749

2.0

2 %


214

Inventory of Properties Listed

$ 136


8,001 - 10,000 sqft

Median House Size (sq ft)

$ 239,450

23 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a

Percent of Properties with Price Decrease

Strong Buyer's

≠≠

±+

==

==

±+

Altos Research Value Statistics

Most Expensive Listing

Average Days on Market (DoM)

Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First

This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuringthe current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to thebuyer.

Supply and Demand

Characteristics per Quartile

13 72999

1682.0 30

3.0

7

231

3.0 113

184

3

6

1.0 - 2.5acres

33

$ 210,000

6

4

113

3.0

6,501 -8,000 sqft

42.0

1249 4,501 -6,500 sqft

113

$ 169,000

3.0

274

0.25 - 0.50acre$ 289,900

4.0$ 499,000

20

7

2249

Inventory has been tightening anddays-on-market increasing recently.The Market Action Index has beenbasically flat, not providing strongindication for market conditions.



113

1749

2.0

The median list price in MISSOULA,MT this week is $239,450. The 452properties have been on the marketfor an average of 214 days.





Quartile Median Price Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.

No change

Strong upward trend Strong downward trend

Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+

== ≠≠

≠=

MISSOULA, MTCity Overview

Least Expensive Listing

Average List Price

Average Age of Listing

452

$ 3,985,000

$ 45,900

$ 323,586

30

Trend Key:

The market has shown someevidence of slowing recently. Bothprices and inventory levels arerelatively unchanged in recentweeks. Watch the Market ActionIndex for changes as it can be aleading indicator for price changes.

of 31

Single Family Homes in


City OverviewMISSOULA, MT


Median PriceThe market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability ofthis trend.

90-day Average7-day Average

Quartile PricesPrices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift(up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.

First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom

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Price per Square FootThe value placed on homes continues to increase, despite the fact that prices in general have been basically flat recently.These conditions can arise when inventory is light and more, smaller homes have more influence on overall prices.


Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.


of 31





Market Action IndexThe MISSOULA market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Indexstands at 17.19. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.

Buyers/Sellers Cutoff90-day Average

Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly given the overall Market Action Index, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months ofinventory given the current rate of demand for homes in the quartile. Watch the quartile for changes before the overall marketshifts. Often one end of the market (e.g. the low end) will improve and signal a strengthening market before the whole groupchanges.


Buyers/Sellers Cutoff

Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterizedby analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’sAdvantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.

of 31





Days on MarketThe properties have been on the market for an average of 214 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in thepast 152 or so days.


Days on Market per QuartileIt is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.


of 31


4 02249

1801.8 4

2.0

0

187

2.0 30

174

3

0

10

$ 161,950

0

0

30

2.2

02.0

999

30

$ 125,750

2.0

488

$ 210,000

3.0$ 375,000

18

2

1249

Price trends continued their recent uptrend this week. Whilestill below the market's price high-point, we've seen a nice runrecently.

In terms of supply and demand, the market is getting cooler - moresupply is coming on the market relative to the sales demand.However, in recent weeks prices have been moving higher. Since it istechnically a Buyer's market, this price trend may be a result ofimproved quality (newer, larger homes) of the homes being listed.Look at the descriptive statistics where you may notice the homesbeing listed are larger and younger than they have been in the past.

Inventory has been decreasing lately but the Market Action Index isfalling also. With days-on-market climbing, these are relativelynegative implications for the market.

MISSOULA, MTMarket TrendsExecutive Summary

29

1249

1.0


The median list price in MISSOULA, MT this week is $179,900.

Investigate the market in quartiles -where each quartile is 25% of homesordered by price.





Quartile Median Price Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSquare Feet


No change Strong upward trend Strong downward trend

Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+ == ≠≠

≠=

Powered by Altos Research LLC | www.altosresearch.com | Copyright ©2005-2010 Altos Research LLC

Condos - Townhomes

10.9


1249

2.0

0 %


255

Median List Price

Average Days on Market (DOM)$ 139

Percent Flip (price increased)Median House Size (sq ft)

$ 179,900

18 %

2.0

Market Action Index



n/aPercent of Properties with Price Decrease

Strong Buyer's

==

==

==

≠≠

Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First

This Week

Supply and Demand

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Price

Price Trends

Market Action Index

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's theMarket?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus theamount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Seller'sMarket conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

QuartilesCharacteristics per Quartile

90-Day Rolling Average7-Day Rolling Average Buyer/Seller Cutoff

90-Day Rolling Average7-Day Rolling Average

Median List Price

10.9


1249

2.0

0 %


255

Inventory of Properties Listed

$ 139


Median House Size (sq ft)

$ 179,900

18 %

2.0

Market Action Index



n/a

Percent of Properties with Price Decrease

Strong Buyer's

≠≠

==

==

==

≠≠

Altos Research Value Statistics

Most Expensive Listing

Average Days on Market (DoM)

Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First

This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuringthe current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to thebuyer.

Supply and Demand

Characteristics per Quartile

4 02249

1801.8 4

2.0

0

187

2.0 30

174

3

0

10

$ 161,950

0

0

30

2.2

02.0

999

30

$ 125,750

2.0

488

$ 210,000

3.0$ 375,000

18

2

1249

Inventory has been decreasing latelybut the Market Action Index is fallingalso. With days-on-market climbing,these are relatively negativeimplications for the market.



29

1249

1.0

The median list price in MISSOULA,MT this week is $179,900. The 119properties have been on the marketfor an average of 255 days.





Quartile Median Price Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.

No change

Strong upward trend Strong downward trend

Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+

== ≠≠

≠=

MISSOULA, MTCity Overview

Least Expensive Listing

Average List Price

Average Age of Listing

119

$ 667,500

$ 77,500

$ 226,840

21

Trend Key:

Inventory levels have been relativelyconsistent relative to sales. Despitethe fact that there is a relativelyhigh amount of available inventory,this Buyer's market is still seeingprices move higher. Given inventorylevels, these price conditions arerelatively fragile. If the marketcools off further, the price trend islikely to reverse.

Page 2 of 26

Condos & Townhomes in




Median PricePrice trends continued their recent uptrend this week. While still below the market's price high-point, we've seen a nice runrecently.


Quartile PricesPrices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift(up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.


Page 3 of 26





Price per Square FootThe market appears to be placing an increasing premium on homes. When list prices and price per square foot consistentlyincrease in tandem, as they're doing now, you can often find short-term investment opportunities. Watch the Market ActionIndex for persistent changes as a leading indicator for these trends to flatten or drop.


Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.


Page 4 of 26





Market Action IndexThe MISSOULA market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Indexstands at 10.94. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.

Buyers/Sellers Cutoff90-day Average

Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly given the overall Market Action Index, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months ofinventory given the current rate of demand for homes in the quartile. Watch the quartile for changes before the overall marketshifts. Often one end of the market (e.g. the low end) will improve and signal a strengthening market before the whole groupchanges.


Buyers/Sellers Cutoff

Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterizedby analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’sAdvantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.

Page 5 of 26





Days on MarketThe properties have been on the market for an average of 255 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in thepast 162 or so days.


Days on Market per QuartileIt is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.


Page 6 of 26


Missoula Market Update 1-23-2012

Real Estate

Transcript of Missoula Market Update 1-23-2012