MIROC-ES2L · 9/17/2019 · A.Prediction and Projection of Large-Scale Climate Changes Based on...
Transcript of MIROC-ES2L · 9/17/2019 · A.Prediction and Projection of Large-Scale Climate Changes Based on...
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MIROC-ES2L
A. Prediction and Projection of Large-Scale Climate Changes Based on Advanced Model DevelopmentMIROC6-CGCM
B. Sophisticated Earth system model for evaluating emission reductions neededMIROC-ES2L
C. Integrated Climate Change Projection
D. Integrated Hazard Prediction
MIROC: Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate
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MIROC-ES2L
Physics“MIROC-AGCM”
Physics“COCO”
Physics“MATSIRO”
Climate model “MIROC5.2”
Aerosol“SPRINTARS”
Biogeochem.“OECO-v2”
Biogeochem.“VISIT-e”
Earth system model “MIROC-ES2L”
Description of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and evaluation of its climate–biogeochemical processes and feedbacks
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Hiroaki Tatebe, Maki A. Noguchi, Manabu Abe, Rumi Ohgaito, Akinori Ito, Dai Yamazaki, Hideki Okajima, Akihiko Ito, Kumiko Takata, Koji Ogochi, Shingo Watanabe, Michio Kawamiya
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MIROC-ES2LModel Data
GPP
Biomass
SOC
Validation
(Hajima et al., to be submitted to GMD)
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MIROC-ES2L
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
SSP1-1.9
Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
SSP1-2.6
Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
SSP5-3.4
Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
SSP2-4.5
Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
SSP3-7.0
Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
SSP5-8.5
Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture
LUH2 data
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Primary
Secondary
Pasture
Crop
Forest areaIncrease in SSP1Decrease in SSP370
Crop + Pasture
Prim + Secon
Primary
Secondary
CroplandPasture
fLUC, PV + fLUC, SV + fLUC, UR + fLUC, CR + fLUC, PS = 1
12 states => 5 states3 cropland types
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MIROC-ES2LMATSIRO(Physics)
VISIT(Ecosystem)
Non-Agriculture
Agriculture(Crop + Managed pasture)
Primary Veg.
Secondary Veg.
Urban
CroplandPasture
Specific parameter file / LAI
Deforestation and abandonment
Infertile
harvest/fertilization/N fixation
/specific parameters
With higher leaf turnover
Soil moisture/ Runoff rate
LAI / N leaching
fLUC, PV + fLUC, SV + fLUC, UR + fLUC, CR + fLUC, PS = 1
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MIROC-ES2L
Secondary Pasture
Mass ‘dilution’
Abandon
1. Transition (mass change and rebalancing)
2. Harvest
Secondary
Harvested mass
Harvest
Urban
Transfer to product pools
CO2emission
Regrowth
CO2 absorb
Area fraction
Biomass per unit area etc.
Area fraction
Biomass per unit area etc.
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MIROC-ES2L
Secondary Cropland
Area fraction
Biomass per unit area etc.
1. N fertilizer
Fertilizer
SecondaryN fixer
2. N fix (agr.)
N fixer
Secondary Urban
3. Urban
CO2
4. Crop harvest
Possible, but not introduced:・Irrigation in cropland・BECCS (eternally unreleased C)
Transfer to product pools
CO2emission
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MIROC-ES2L
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MIROC-ES2L
couceutratioa-dr.lu#pi control !
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( 880 2014 2100
Done Done Done DoneComing (Done)
Example: SOC (will be discussed tomorrow)
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MIROC-ES2LDone (will appear on ESGF soon)• Historical, noLu, ssp-LU data exchange (conc.- and emission-driven)
Ongoing• Idealized deforestation
Future• Land-only simulations: land-hist, land-cCO2, land-cClim• More ensembles?
Far future (CMIP7 and AR7?)• Cropland irrigation, more cropland types (e.g., bio-fuel crop)• Permafrost• Re-coupling with dynamic vegetation• Phosphorus limitation?• Total greenhouse gas budget (CH4 from paddy field, N2O from croplands)
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MIROC-ES2L
(Hajima et al., to be submitted to GMD)
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MIROC-ES2L